 The supergrade concept, I think it's fairly self-evident that Ireland can benefit from that and it's no surprise really that it was an Irishman who came up with the idea to begin with. So I'm going to talk more about smart grid in Ireland, the smart grid concept. And I'm going to tell you a little bit about the imperative to move to a smart grid here, the potential for smart grids for Ireland and current smart grid activity if I can get through it all in the 20 minutes allotted. But I'll preface it by saying I think as David said, smart grid does mean different things to different markets and to different countries and regions. The one thing that it always does mean is that it's communication and information technology embedded within an energy system. And I'm just going to try to identify for Ireland what it means. So why will we move to a smart grid? We don't have any particular targets or policy objectives that say we must deploy a smart grid. The closest to that we have is a government directive saying we had to look at the cost benefit of smart metering and we have done that. But we don't have a target for that. We do have targets for reducing our energy use and greening our energy supply. And smart grids can help us to do that in a more efficient manner. If we just look at where we are today in our electricity, electricity provides 17% of our total final consumption. So we actually use more direct energy for transport and for heat than we do for electricity. And our current consumption is about 24,000 gigawatt hours. That compares to UK, which has over 10 times that, 328,000 gigawatt hours. So we're small. And our CO2 intensity is something that has decreased significantly over the last 10 years. You see here current 2010 levels, the average was about 475, I think it's actually grams of CO2 per kilowatt hour. I think somebody did this for me and gave me the wrong number. Our 2007 level, our 2005 level was 674. And that's down from 2000 when the number was over 800. And that has been driven by a move towards more efficient plants, CCGT generation plants. And then in the last number of years, by the large deployments of renewables onto the system. Our max demand is 5,000 megawatts, that was in December last year. We have installed dispatchable capacity about 6,800 as of December 2010. And installed renewables as of June of 1789 and 1450 of that is renewables. And you don't have to remember all those numbers. They won't be important later on, but they do give a context of where we are as an energy user. So I did say we had targets. So we have a renewables target under the EU's 2020 directive, 16% by 2020. And we expect to meet that by 40% of our electricity source coming from renewable energy, 10% of our transport coming from renewable energy. And we have an additional target of 10% of our passenger vehicles to be electric. And then a 20% energy efficiency target. And all of those targets have plans that are published by our Department of Energy here. The National Energy Efficiency Action Plan and the National Renewable Energy Action Plan. So the plans are in place, but they are by no means easy to achieve. These are challenging targets. And we have an additional EU target of reaching our 20% reduction of our carbon emissions in the non-EU ETS sector. And this is a fairly strange and tricky slide and concept to get across. But I think it's an important one when we think about smart grids. And you see here that the orange is those parts of our economy that are within the emissions trading system. The green are in the non-emissions trading system. We expect, we project that by 2020, we'll have reduced emissions 27% below our 2005 level. And our target is 20%. So that sounds good, except when you look at the split between the amounts that's in the emissions trading sector, they're 35% below. The rest of us are 17% below. The emissions trading sector includes those people who are big emitters, but most importantly, it includes the electricity system, the electricity generators. So if you think about how this interacts with our other policy directives, the more that we green our electricity sector, the more wind we put on our sector, the more decreased they have in the emissions trading system side. So we don't actually get the benefit towards the national target of 20%. And then the other thing is it creates an incentive for us to move as much of our direct use of energy, our direct burning of energy for transport and for heating towards electricity, because that takes the burden out of the non-emissions trading sector and moves it towards the emissions trading sector. But the interesting thing about that is that it actually ties directly to what we would get from the smart grid concept. So it underlies the smart grid concept. I said that our target was pretty hard. It's already looking hard. This shows the national renewable energy efficiency action plans, projection for how much capacity we would have in renewables between 2010 and 2020. So the pathway, how we're going to get there and already we're below. We're in the middle of 2011. We're expected to have above 2,500 megawatts of renewables by the end of this year. We only have less than 1,800 now. So there's a big hill to climb. There are a lot of reasons that the build rate hasn't been what it was expected to be when this was published. This is probably not the form to talk about it. But one of the issues is really that it is projected to be extremely difficult to operate a system with very high amounts of variable renewable energy. And Ireland's target is the highest. Air Grid presents this quite regularly. We have 38% within our 40% of our target will be met by variable renewable energy. And that's the highest within any EU target that exists under the NREAPs. So we're trying to do something that nobody else is trying to do. And it requires Air Grid to take as a system operator to understand how we operate a system like that. And they've done some fairly cutting-edge work to look at that, including the facilitation of renewable study. And they've also contributed to some work that's being done in the IEA that looks at how you operate a system with very high variable renewables penetration. And this shows essentially what that piece of work said, which is that operating that kind of a system requires a flexible energy system. It requires a flexible electricity system and a lot of flexibility available to system operators. So these are some of the means of getting flexibility that were identified within that study. So market and system operation changes. And so that includes things like offering day ahead pricing, offering ancillary services markets, shorter gate closure periods, sharing balancing across markets, as Ana had referred to. Curtainment of variable renewables, it's not a nice way to get it, but it does provide flexibility. Demand side participation is, I think, the bit that we'd like to see, providing some more flexibility, interconnection, storage, gas cycling, and coal cycling as well. But I circle here the two that really tie this smart grid concept together. If you can make the market and system operation changes that allow pricing, to give a price signal, then you can allow demand side, as well as the other means of flexible generation, to respond to that price. And the cheapest will respond. The market will bring the cheapest forward. And I suppose it's our view that demand side should be one of the cheapest. Longer term targets then. We only really have one at this point, which is the 2050 target, to reduce our emissions to 80% from 1990 levels by the year 2050. We don't have national targets beyond 2020, but we expect we will do before too long. But we have that very big and challenging 2050 target to look at that the EU is adopting. So SEAI and EPA together commissioned UCC, Ryan Gallahore's group, to look at or to adapt the times model, which is, again, developed by the IEA, to adapt that to Ireland, to essentially build the Irish times model. And they've done that. It's a bottom up cost optimization model. It solves for a least cost approach to meeting that long term emission reduction target. He looks at the energy sector, the energy sector only in that. But and I would say that it also has some limited intelligence in relation to imports. And a further iteration on the model will look at a regionalized model that will incorporate the UK and potentially France, to the wider electricity market that we'll have going forward. So with this caveat, I would just say it's a starting point to look at how an energy system will work towards a 2050 target. And really we're at a pace where with the smart grid and the smart grid concept being utilized in Ireland, that longer term view is where we can see the real benefits from having that kind of a look. So this is just showing one of the outputs of that work. And I'm just including it to show you really the scale of the reduction that we need. So this is the scale of the challenge of reaching 80% reduction by 2050. And you see that the electricity sector is going to be required to produce around 30, a little over 30% of that total reduction. And the interesting thing is that we won't necessarily get there on the basis of the outputs of this model using less from playing efficiency in relation to electricity. We'll actually use more electricity, but we'll have to use very, very low carbon electricity. I think these numbers are quite low in comparison to some of the things that people look at as targets to drive towards. So 21 grams per kilowatt hour, it's very low. And move on to talk a little bit about the potential for smart grids in Ireland then. And this is going to look similar to what David showed you as to what smart grids can do, because that's really what we want them to do. But the kinds of things that smart grid can enable for us are behavioral changes. So we get more information about energy use to the consumers of energy than they are enabled to have peak demand reduction, demand management, feedback on energy usage, more information. One of the guys that I work with whenever he talks about this sort of thing, he says he refers to the fact that if you went on a diet, you wouldn't do it without scales. You need to have the information. You need to know how much you use in order to monitor how much you're going to reduce and to set goals for that. That said, we don't necessarily want to rely on behavior change to get the sorts of savings that we can get from this. We need to enable technology. So there are a number of other things that enabling technology to respond to information that you can have across the system will give us. So within the transmission and distribution networks, having the more information will allow reduced line losses that allow greater efficiency in how those systems are operated, how the networks are operated. We can, they'll assist in integrating variable generation, especially in the distribution network, allow us to put in more distributed generation, aggregate that distributed generation, use it more efficiently. And then importantly, it will facilitate things like electric vehicles, enabling smart appliances, moving energy to heat, energy use from heat to electrification. And doing all of that within a context of a automated demand reduction system. So the system itself hears the price signals from the energy system. The system in your home and the system in your home tells your washing machine, turn on because it's midnight and there's wind being curtailed somewhere on the system. So we need technology to help us access energy, use savings, maximize our use of our low carbon energy and generate cost savings for our users. So a bit about Ireland and why this is a good place to maybe look at doing these things. We have a small but advanced electricity system, but we're off on the corner of a very big market and we have very light interconnection to that very big market. And this very, very challenging target for variable renewable energy within our system. And that target is going to require us to develop some new operational strategies and market mechanisms and probably we'll need to develop them before other countries. Eventually everybody will have these issues. We're just going to have them first. We're also a single electricity market and I thought it was interesting actually that Anna's presentation showed what they'd like to see in the European level. But we kind of have that already on the island level in that we have one market across the island. We have one transmission system operator, one distribution system operator, common ownership between both of those within the south and the north. And we have regulators that work together on regulating the single electricity market and on a number of other issues. So I think the important thing to note here is that because we were so concentrated in that regard, we can actually get all the important decision makers, a lot of them are already here in one room. That's something that's very attractive to industry. It's very attractive that you can get all of those people together. You can fit them in one room. You couldn't do that with Switzerland where they have something like 500 distribution system operators. So it's a uniqueness to Ireland. Another point to make that I didn't include on the slide, but it came up today at lunch is the fact that some Irish consumers are, I would say in my experience of being here for the last 10 years, the Irish people are very flexible. They're able to respond to changes, respond to changing experiences quite quickly. And in comparison to other places that we talked about where there has been quite a bit of consumer advocacy around responding to things like smart grid and responding to different ways of doing things. In my view, the Irish will respond very positively and quickly towards this. So that will be another advantage to us in developing a smart grid system. We also have a lot of the right companies here already. We have a research infrastructure that is focusing now on combining industry and in partnership with academics. And we have on the one hand, the electricity research center, where that kind of working together developed organically. And on the other hand, you have the international energy research center, which is being developed on the basis that we have some good researchers and the development agency see an opportunity to attract industry to work with those researchers. So you have two perspectives. They work on different sides of the smart grid issue and one on integration issue, one more on the smartening, the building in the energy demand at the site. But the fact that they're both looking at participation between industry and academics I think is something that's very useful here. And we have some innovative smart grid companies already in the indigenous local SMEs. They have capacity around software development, around energy services, energy management services, software, and network technologies. And I'm going to just talk a little bit about how that issue of having the high variability impacts on how our system operates and how it does create an opportunity to use the smart grid concept. And this just shows a picture of what the system demand would have been a couple of days ago. Up on the top, the red line, the system operators will tell you that in the past this is what they operated towards. They operated towards a very predictable, you know, you knew what the demand was going to be. It's a very predictable number of that red line. But now you have the green line on there, the wind generation, and it's not that predictable. You have a forecast and you can operate to the net load or the net forecast of demand that's going to be that day. So the forecast demand, lest the wind, is what you'd operate towards. But even that is going to add more variability into the system because what happens actually might not be what was forecasted to happen. The interesting thing that I'm going to point out here is we have two occurrences in this spot where the net demand actually, the amount of wind on the system would actually be greater than 50% of what the demand is. And part of the operating, and you guys can correct me on this if I'm wrong on this, but I understand it as part of what came out of the Silitation of Renewable Study was that it's safe to operate a system where up to 50% of your demand is met by variable renewable energy. Beyond that, you really need to start looking at other ways to deal with it. So I'm reading that as this is potential for times when you'd have curtailment. But the thing that I think is most interesting is that I just grabbed this because it was the first day I could get 24-hour period when I was doing this. This was just Monday. So if this is the case, we're already curtailing wind on Monday, on just a random day that I picked. I didn't have to go searching for a day we're curtailing wind. We have this issue now. So we have an opportunity to access zero carbon renewables now if we can move demand into that slot. And now I want to just go over. This is going to be another one that's a little bit difficult. It's a new one that I haven't actually presented before. But this is the concept of how you might be able to get some of that demand. And it's trying to get it from residential heating. This is an issue that has been controversial. It's controversial even within SEAI. And I'm going to show you why. And it really is because the CO2 impact of moving towards electrification isn't something that's not as obvious as one might think. So what we've done here is we've taken, say, 200,000 dwellings. And we've looked at the CO2 impact of those dwellings for heating. And this is space heating and water heating. A building built before the 2005 regulations would use about 20,000 kilowatt hours per year for heating. We have now an extensive retrofit program. So we assume that all of those houses, all those 200,000 dwellings, had the retrofit program applied to them. So they have very good insulation. They've essentially minimized the amount of heat that they need. So it cuts that in half. So they're about now 10,000 kilowatt hours. And the emissions implications of those are the CO2 emissions that you see on the left-hand side. And that's the implications of using a combination of oil and heating, because we're trying to get the whole country represented here in order to meet that demand for heat. So then we looked at, well, what happens if you, two minutes, okay. What happens if you do that via electricity, rather? And so we looked at electricity that had the CO2 intensity of the 2005 electricity. And you see that it has very big impact on carbon emissions. It doesn't look good. And even if you look at 2010, when we've already decarbonized significantly, it's still not, you don't get the benefit of the retrofit that you've done. And even if we look at 2020, we've met our 40% target. We have a lot of wind on the system. The carbon intensity projected then is still such that it's less carbon intensive to just burn gas in your house or oil. But the interesting thing here is this relies on an average over the year CO2 intensity. And averages don't really mean anything when you're running an electricity system, and the dispatch changes every 15 minutes. So if you look, if you assume that you can take all the bits of that heating that are discretionary, and what we assumed was 3,500 of those kilowatt hours are for water heating. And we all have cylinders that have good insulation. We certainly will have cylinders of good insulation on them if we've had a retrofit done on our house. And then another 1,500 kilowatt hours can be discretionary because the heat doesn't necessarily have to come on exactly when you need it. It could come on before, and you can store some heat. This is with technology today, and this is assuming you can take that discretionary heat and move that towards the time when you have that zero carbon electricity available to you. And suddenly electrification of residential heat makes some sense. This is, as I say, there are policies in place that are in EU-based policies that militate against this at the moment, but it's an area where I think Ireland has the potential to lead Europe in moving the debate on, moving the debate towards militating for electrification of heat rather than against it, but when you're able to do it with a smart grid system. I'm going to just kind of cruise through the rest of these because I don't really have time, and I just want to give you a few things. There are a few more, and you can refer to these in your package, a few more slides that show the outputs from the times, and they just really show that for the 80% reduction, we actually will use more electricity in heat and electrification, but we'll have to really move the CO2 intensity of that electricity significantly down, and we'll need to do that by greening our electricity supply. I just wanted to show you the last ones of these, and it really just shows that, as I just said, we actually, on the 80% case, we use more than we would in the business as usual case, electricity, but that electricity is significantly less carbon-intensive than it would be in the business as usual case. So, smart grid road map, this is something that was referred to by Dermott, and this is something we'll be producing later this year. We're still working with a group that includes the regulated energy, infrastructure companies, the development agencies ourselves, the regulator, and our department that are helping us put together this road map. There are a number of things that we know will happen. A smart meter rollout hasn't been decided yet, however, a lot of reports have come out that points towards a positive outcome there. And a lot of things that could happen, and we'd like to see, for instance, a demonstration of a test bed, that's something I think is very good. We know we will see development of system operation program to enhance system flexibility, and Fintans Lye, who's here, is going to be leading that effort for Air Grid. And longer term, there are a number of other things we'd be looking at that we don't know will happen, but we'd expect to happen. And as I say, we'll be working on this and publishing something by the end of the year. There are a couple of things on current smart grid activities I was intending to show you. The smart meter trial, I think, is the one to really highlight. If you don't know about the results, it's worth looking at. It was the most robust trial of customer behavior that has been done. It's statistically significant for a representative of the entire population of users in Ireland, and it showed that with time of use tariffs, static time of use tariffs, and in home displays, we could get savings of 3% overall in electricity use and 11% at peak time. So 11% that's moving, flexible demand that can help those periods of time when we have low carbon energy available to us. The cost-benefit analysis, as I said, it points to positive direction for most of the scenarios that were considered. There are a number of additional trials underway. I'm not gonna go through them. I'm just gonna say there are a number that are underway, but there's an awful lot more that we can be doing in terms of trialing this technology. And it's something that we'd like to see come out of the smart grid roadmap. We'll hope to see come out of the smart grid roadmap. The last thing I wanted to point out is the demand side vision paper that was published by the CER. And the regulator in Northern Ireland recently. This is, I think, something that kind of happened fairly quietly, but it's potentially very, very useful and groundbreaking, really. And that we have a regulator who's not only identified the high potential opportunities for the use of demand side and really for the smart grid concept, including dynamic time of use tariffs, which we'd have to have in order to really capitalize on that opportunity that I was really trying to elucidate where we get demand that can respond to the times that you have a price signal that tells you that there's low carbon energy available to you. And they've also stated that a number of priority actions will be followed through by themselves and the regulator in Northern Ireland working with the regulated asset companies. And they're all very positive for the development of smart grids here because, as David pointed out, regulation is one of the key elements of this. So we have a regulator who's positively engaged in this and that's something to really be, hopefully, be thankful for going forward. So I'm gonna end it there. Actually, I'm not gonna tell you my conclusions because I think you got the gist that I wanted to give you and the time is running out. But I do wanna point out that we have developed a virtual picture of what a smart grid looks like and it's an animated. I was gonna show it to you but the technology wasn't able to do it. But I've given you the link to that on the SCAI website and it's a nice thing to look at to see how a smart grid is, how we would expect a smart grid to work and how it would interact with a building, office building and a home. And it can give you that picture and it's something, hopefully, worth looking at. Okay.