 It's been another tense week in the South China Sea area. On Thursday, China criticised a UN tribunal that will rule on some of its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea. Foreign Ministry officials said the case amounted to forced arbitration. Everyone must abide by the laws and the facts. Some people are trying to change the concept stealthily to confound right and wrong and black and white. They may be able to mislead public opinion for some time. But eventually lies are lies and even repeated a thousand times will not become truth. Well this week the US and China accused each other of contributing to the increased militarisation of the region when a US warship sailed close to Fiery Cross Reef, a disputed area. Well we can cross now to Sydney and speak to Aaron Connolly, a research fellow in the East Asia program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy. Welcome to the program. What do you make of China's stance and could this potentially lead to some militarised action in the region? Well China has long said that it will not abide by the tribunal's ruling in this case. It says that the tribunal doesn't have jurisdiction and in recent months it's actually gone around to some of the countries with which it has a strong financial relationship. Cambodia allows Fiji and countries in a weaker position like Yemen and received some support for that position. But most international lawyers agree that in this case the tribunal does have jurisdiction. Now as you say the tribunal certainly has jurisdiction but if China refuses to accept the court's judgement to what can be done I mean can China force the issue and how do other players in the region particularly the US see it? Well the fear is that if the court does indeed rule and favour the Philippines against China, that China will redouble its actions in the South China Sea. Over the last year it's built three artificial islands, very large artificial islands, large enough to host a military length airstrip and that it might even declare what's known as an air defence identification zone in the South China Sea which would say that China has to be notified before any planes can fly over the South China Sea. So there is a real risk here that China will sort of lash out if the ruling goes against it. Now you mentioned the Philippines, certainly one of the countries that has claims to some of these islands. They've just had an election and we know that the man who's almost certain to become president has some very strong words on this topic. So could matters change if President Duterte does take office? Well President Duterte's rhetoric has been very colourful on this subject but it's not been particularly clear on the one hand. He said that he would write a jet ski out to Scarborough Shoal, one of the disputed features in the South China Sea and plant the Philippine flag there but on the other hand he said he's open to multilateral negotiations and China's global Times newspaper, state-run newspaper seems to believe he may be a man that they can do business with so it's not really clear what Duterte's position will be. He doesn't have as strong a relationship with the United States as his predecessor, the outgoing president Benino Aquino has and so that may factor into it as well but we really have to wait and see what his policy will be. And do you think China has a point when they say that there is increased militarisation in the region for instance you had the U.S. with its freedom of navigation exercise earlier this week? Exercise is these patrols for 33 years in the South China Sea so that's not what has changed and it's important also to note that China is not being singled out with these patrols. The U.S. in the last year is also challenged excessive maritime claims by sailing through waters that are claimed by all the countries in the region including the Philippines and Vietnam but that's not what's changed in the last few years what's changed is China creating these artificial islands and even dislodging the Philippines from a shoal that they previously occupied in the South China Sea that's what's ratcheting up tensions in the region. All right thank you for joining us Aaron Connolly then apologies for