 Fi cas treat – the Müller Monday 10 February I hope everyone in the UK made it through the stormy weekend Back to business Monday morning – a look ahead for the weak, not just the session ahead. What have we got, the normal routine? I'll talk about some of the key fundamental themes are going to be in focus ha get from our point of view and then I'll hand you over to Sam who will go over the charts both in-ress day and week from the technical perspective. ifanc yw ond YouTube yn gweithio, os gallwch chi weld y canol yn gwneud cyfgareddau i'w rhan o'r mynd. So, ydych chi'n cwndor fe ydych wedi'i gweithio, ond com interface wedi'i gweithio lwyddo ar hyn. Let's have a quick cross-check on still the subject which is dominating a lot of the national mainstream as well as financial media and that is the ongoing situation in mainland China and the Coronavirus. Felly, ydy'r gweithio John Hopkins yma yw'r data. Felly, yw'r cwmhyslwyr yn cyfnodol, oedden nhw'n 40,000. A'r tally o'r ddechrau'n 910, felly mae'n ddod yn ymgyrchio'r virus dechrau'n 2002-2003. Mae'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r 3,400. Mae'n amlall gwirionedd ddaeth mewn benedig ond y dyfodol o casu rhai i adrodd fawr ac y ddweud o'r ddweud cyfeirio'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud yn gyntaf a'r cyflwyno fel fy yw'r cyflwyno.wyr ddweud o'r cyflwyno. Mae'r ddweud o'r ddweud, felly mae'r cyflwyno Ac oedd ar uncwylio ar gyfer y cymhiliadau yn eich materai ac am yw'r unig audienceaidd ynglynig o'r cyfrannu gan y Twyffordd Gymru. Rwy'n gyfathio gan eich cymysgol, rwy'n gyfaf yn ddod o'r adrodd drwy pwysigol, ac rwy'n gydweithio ar gyfer y cyfrannu'r cyfrannu chi. Mae'n bwysigol eich cyfrannu i'r tif, mae gennych chi'n bwysigol i'r urthyn ni'n mewn gwahau. Mae'r gymhwybr amser o'r ymgyrchyn i'rgyffr o'r coronavirus oedol. gallwn i'na gweld i'r ystafellau i'w ddaeth am yr ongwyddiad o ddweudio'r ddweudio'r ddaeth yn byw'r llunig. Mae'r dweudio'r dweudio'r ddweudio'r ar gyfer dyma o'r cyfnod, sy'n gynghwil i ddiwethaf i'r llunig, ydych yn ei wneud bod yn eu bod yn rwyf oedol oherwydd yryd ythafel o'r swyddo budd. Felly, dyna, rydyn ni'n ffordd y meddwl fanfaire ar y dyma yn y ddweud. Ond, oherwydd, o'r pryddyn ni'n ddweud, yna'r rathionol yn gweithio'r ddweud. A dyna'r cymdeithas hynny ymlaen o'r llwyffydd yn y ffordd. Yn y ffordd o'r ffordd yma sy'n ddweud, mae'n gwneud yn y dyfodol. One is a lot of studies coming out now, apparently about the when can we get, when will we see peak virus? As to then ascertain when can almost China go back to business as usual, and mid to late February seems to be the most common kind of timeframe. There are other mixed reports saying that the coronavirus may infect up to around half a million dim iawn ac mae. after that point, however, on the flip side, the executive director of the World Health Organization's health emergencies program did also say that there had been a stabilisation in a number of cases reported from Hubei, if you remember that it is the area specifically which encapsulates then the apparent origination in the city of Wuhan. And they have seen in the data a four-day stable period in the fourth ynghylch fel roedd y cyffred inni o'r bod 02.00 yr ystod y gallud o'r cyffred yn fagor iawn, a mae'r rhai, ond mae'n i'r cas. Yr hyn mae'n cael ei ddechrau'r ymddug o'r lefliadau oherwydd mae'r cas yn y cyffred yn ffordd, ac mae'n gweithio'n gwneud nhw i fel I ac mae'r cwntamen yw, yn dweud, o'r cyffred ar y cyffred sydd yn gweithio'r cwymru o'r cyffred yn digwydd yn dweud o'r cyffred yn dweud, oherwydd mae'n yn gwzod. dwi'n gweithio'r wych er fydd, mae mae'n gweithio'r rhannu llunio'r llunio'r hamladau. Mae'r bwysig, mae'n gweithio'r ddechrau bod yn gweithio'r ffathau, bod ein ffathau chynigiaeth Cymru wedi gweithio'r llunio'r ffaith. Mae'r ffaith foxcon, wedi gweld ei fod yn gweithio'r ffaith, bob sy'n gweithio'r ffaith a phrydau'r llunio'r ffaith yn gweld o'r Llywodraeth USA, fel apple for example, but one of the things here from a white college perspective many being asked to work from home and there's still various differences to the different provinces if you like in China as to their proximity and number of reported cases and whether or not it is a full return to workers yet but this obviously is quite key because the longer that they remain on full lockdown the more severe the implication on their economic activity however if you put them back to work and it's seen as too premature then obviously that could then reignite then the transmission from human to human cases because people are then able to spread the disease or outbreak more effectively and so yes quite it's quite an interesting time for it whether or not we start to see the next escalation of it or we remain as we are at the moment I think at the moment markets remain fairly sanguine and and I think that's the way you've got to look at this almost kind of objectified the situation try not to get too caught in the conspiracy theories circling on Twitter and just focus on what it is that's moving charts at the moment and I I still try to look at this type of thing as binary as possible and unless the outbreak numbers start to to manifest themselves A outside of China and B once they do start to return to work if that starts to see another new exponential rise in number of cases meaning that they're going to have to reclose a number of significant populace areas of the country which is going to have big economic impact on the country now unless that unfolds I still don't think that this is a particularly massive issue for markets not to say that that could change down the future but that's the current status quo I'd say the other thing that a few people have looked at is overnight you do some inflation data out of China I don't think it comes as a massive surprise Chinese consumer inflation hit its highest level in more than eight years in January due to the impact of the virus outbreak and the lunar new year so normally we do see a seasonal blip given the complete country shut down for the lunar new year but given the extension of that with the virus meant that consumer prices in China climbed 5.4% in January from a year earlier the highest reading since October of 2011 food prices grew 20.6% from a year earlier pork prices were up 116% on the year in January because remember before this food prices were already elevates on the back of the the swine flu that was creating a cull on a large scale of pigs which saw a big boost in those prices for a while so it's almost exacerbated or what was already an ongoing inflationary issue in terms of the divide between divergence of CPI and PPI in that extent so that will likely continue for now some other headlines to cycle you through then a few thoughts on the week on the calendar we did have Irish elections at the weekend you've probably read a little bit about this the main thing here that I want to stress is that this isn't this doesn't have any immediate market implications at least not for now but what has happened is Sinn Fein ballot box revolution rocks the Irish establishment so what otherwise is very much a two-party system kind of like in most countries if you think about it Britain the same you know if you had the labour and conservatives but you know both parties almost diminishing in their their interest had been for the recent few years a bit of a pattern until Boris obviously got this commanding majority and that has led to things like populism brexit party or even a brief stint for some other parties on the more kind of pro-european liberal democrat side so while some popularity at one point but you know a common thing that's been seen and continuation of that in Ireland so Sinn Fein which does draw some eyebrows given its historical connections to the IRA and left-wing policies the nationalist party now will now go into potentially coalition talks that's not to say that they're going to have the outright control here both parties both the existing main established parties argue Sinn Fein's mix of nationalism and populism are unsuitable for office so both had previously said they'd be unwilling to go into any type of cooperation or coalition government with them however Fianna falls or fails Michael Martin accepting his obligation to find a functioning government could well break that that traditional mould one of the main things here is you know why why has populism been you know nationalism such a prevalent theme of late well brexit is a particularly striking issue of course when it comes to island in particular and that of course has had some implications here but other familiar policies taxing the wealthy lowering retirement age bigger spending program in decades on housing of all being very popular things of a country which don't forget was the recipient of a sovereign bailout only within the last decade as well and has gone through a strong period of austerity then brexit i don't think it's much a surprise to see a more national party coming through and being more popular in this current economic or political climate going back though to the the calendar for the week one thing that i just wanted to mention here was we continue to monitor for any ongoing comments out of opec plus will they or won't they cut supply oil i'll leave from a technical point of view for sam to look at but it's trading back basically at a $50 handle so still threatening quite a key significant point and one thing that i thought was interesting from what i was reading at the weekend was at the moment you've got a bit of a stand off the Saudi want to act but Russia not so sure on the timing and haven't really made any firm commitment either way is yet but one thing that was happening over the weekend was a meeting in Cairo and this was peace talks that were happening now Libya this is in respect to Libya specifically now Libya in the last few weeks as per this graphic that you can see this is looking at the access from left to right the last 10 years of libian crude production now the country's crude production if operating at close to maximum capacity can be pumping kind of up at 1.6 million however at the moment they're pumping just 200 000 so it's one of the lowest rates that they've pumped as you can see here since going back eight years ago essentially now why is that happening well civil unrest is the main thing ongoing conflict between the internationally back triply government and general Khalifa Haftar which has caused huge disruption to their ability to produce oil however these peace talks have been happening at the weekend and one thing that a few people were talking about that i was reading was that if they can de-escalate this ongoing conflict in Libya and that can lead back to more stable calm conditions so that production rates can return back to some degree of normality if you look at where we were on an average kind of price over 2019 trading or producing it was about 1.2 million so if you think about it over the coming period then and you can see these rates can change fairly rapidly what if Libya starts to bring about 1 million barrels of crude oil back on the market now we're talking about oil price which has been whacked by 25% on the back of the consumption loss out of china impacted by the outbreak of the virus as we know and prices have fallen down to this $50 handle the key thing i'm looking at here then is actually Libya might hold the key because if i flip over here i know this is a bit i'll share with you the blog here so you can have a look at this in more detail they send it out to everyone this morning but here this is looking at oil over the last kind of two years and one of the things that i'm looking at is last week we broke quite a key level of support just above $50 which held a lot of the price action through the best part of 2019 we did briefly break that however when OPEC in their technical meetings last week started making some noises in toward cutting potentially the recommendation 600 000 vows per day we started to see a little bit of stabilization in prices but we're right back teatering on that level again and i think if we do break it then that does open kind of technically a bit of a a trap door and we start seeing prices down at 47 50 45 and that starts to bring in then that end of q4 2018 low now the trigger point for this is at the moment OPEC seemed a little reluctant to pull the trigger and we talked about this last week in terms of their strategy they were kind of trying to verbally intervene last week they haven't yet got to the point of actually cutting deeper supply i don't think that they will unless we get that run down into the mid 40s so if you start to see headlines pertaining to Libya having some type of peace agreement and then tracking their numbers going north as they normalise their production rates i think that could be just the tipping point then to add to this current bearish dynamic that we've got fundamentally in oil and with a technical breach at these levels that could be the key then for the move to the downside so something to just look out for this week going back to the the calendar as you can see for today it's pretty quiet overall but Tuesday things start to get a bit more interesting we've got UK GDP of course people will be watching closely just given how some of the other economic data has performed since the initial election bounce if you like that we've had in some indicators but we get the first of a two-day significant platform for the fed chair so anyone new to markets the fed chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the house financial committee on Tuesday and then to the senate banking committee on wednesday and the event in itself historically has often been seen as a significant staging post for the the head of the fed to say about what they feel about current economic conditions and also future policy decisions now the two events are basically a copy paste repeat of each other so by default then the Tuesday one when he says it for the first time in terms of his opening statement which will be already known by the major accredited press so you'll get that whole batch of headlines hit the news wires on Tuesday afternoon um that will be the most important one and one of the key things of course will be does he add any more colour as to the impact of the the virus on the overall global perspective of of where we're heading in the future going further forward then other things we're looking out for you've got ECB's Christine Lagarde the president speaking on Tuesday in European Parliament and that does come ahead of Friday which is going to be a key day for European data because for the second quarter in three the German economy is expected to be in contraction and this will also then see the preliminary eurozone GDP figure as well so that's on Friday now from other data points of interest really on back on Friday again you've got US retail sales industrial manufacturing production and Michigan consumer sentiment the preliminary reading all also happening um on Friday from the earnings perspective what do we have well actually i'd say earnings starts to almost completely drop off the main macro radar i mean for single stock traders obviously still important we're about 64 the way through of the s&p 500 reporting so far but all of the big boys are kind of out of the way now 65 companies will be reporting this week but as you can see here is a glance of some of the most anticipated earning releases some of the biggest ones i guess from an index waiting point of view alababa group pepsico craft might be ones of interest from a uk perspective on friday i think you've got astra and rbs and you've got also damler which are in the press this morning the german automotive name i think they report on Tuesday pre-market so tomorrow morning there was a headline out of the handles black this morning they're cutting 15 000 jobs it's part of the cost-cutting exercise remember they've issued multiple profit warnings last year so they look to kind of tighten the belt in that respect so yeah that's that's the overall kind of landscape for the week from my side so i'm going to use my my uh safe word with sam to know that he needs to swap now for him to come on which is pineapples and uh i'm going to leave you with that so overall a little bit of getting the week underway with a focus on the coronavirus i honestly still don't think that that is a major issue at this point for markets again it's kind of one of those things where monday there's not a lot coming out on monday and also you get this kind of media fest over the weekend and cos markets are closed you have a little bit of a gap down but we've already recovered that so it's something to monitor um as we go through the week but otherwise you've got feds pals testimony keep an eye on oil i think that could be a real interesting one this week just given where we're training at the moment um and then christine the garden and some data points on friday to look out for okay guys thanks very much thanks and yeah oil i think will will certainly be uh an interesting one this week if we just have a quick look where we're looking where we're training at the moment just literally a couple of cent below 50 50 bucks on the futures bringing last week into picture and if this is all you can see it's it's i would say pretty hard to to form a picture of what's going to happen looks pretty range band doesn't it if you look back on the beginning of last monday uh the third we we basically hit that a couple of times along with some friday before that resistance and those lows have have come in and held quite well as well so uh you would perhaps favour you know from what we're seeing this morning and move down to the lows of last week but overall it's going to be probably dictated from from opac and and other comments that come through from that having a a bit of a look lower timeframe into that let's get the 15 minute in uh what could we have for for entries i i guess you can see from you know let's just bring this trend line on from yesterday or friday i should say afternoon early morning then the afternoon then this this early session today near the high you've got a nice trend line in the mix they're free touches so a break of that might give you a bit of confidence that this move could push on and towards the pivot obviously looks like a pretty key point as well so that trend could be a bit of a guide to to the upside to the downside well actually the level we just broke through here 50 oh nine uh i know it's probably not the right time to be looking to trade oil given the time and also the day uh but that could be a bit of a short shorter term resistance and then obviously below you're looking at the uh the lower point we got to today 49 56 which is basically the the low that we had uh from the year so far and as we also know if we do push lower time to to get on those longer time frames and and have a look at levels not seen since 2018 when oil uh was just recovering a touch but the next really really key level for for me that i like the look of uh i would have around 4807 i think it's the low that we had on the futures anyway the 7th of jan and and just below there you've got the high 47 77 from the uh also that the the second of jan as well so that's some key support for me where to be honest medium term little long i don't think would be the the worst idea in the world having a quick look elsewhere uh european open eight o'clock just have a quick look at the decks choppy to start the week perhaps a bit undecided uh well keeping a i would say a watch on that previous resistance that we did break through around 130 to keep an eye on that 13 450 give or take also got a similar uh trends to how oil was set up that we we've got levels from friday this December to be in the afternoon just guiding price down so if you are bullish on stocks uh a push above those trends and the pivot could be the the way to look at this if we were to to hold up around there quite a lot of support below of course where we have been trading this morning you can see any of these previous highs would certainly be ones to to keep an eye on that low that we had early hours this morning was also support back on the fifth as well so some key levels to to be aware of line in the sand perhaps guiding price um well it's been guiding price higher you'd say could well be these highs that we had on the 29 30 if we broke through just uh last week and then just above the the s2 13 thousand three seven three uh decent price action around that area uh a bit of a line in the sand for the balls to defend and the bears to want to take over a break of that and then you'd be looking to to target back down towards the fourth fifth uh area where of course the vaccine uh the cure uh was released s&p in the dow and and the nasdaqs have a quick look as well you can see it's going to bring the the dow in and and this was a level i was looking to get long friday afternoon and of course it happens in the the early hours of sunday night monday morning and bounces 100 and the rest points but uh you know we move let's have a quick look in more intraday you can see it's again the trend from uh friday that's just guiding price it's not necessarily the most perfect trend line as of yet uh but if i was bullish i want that to break and i want to see a nice push ideally in the afternoon for for that to take place 29 000 uh the psychological handle decent price action there friday already just tested it now so for a bit of support uh in line in the sand that's as as good as any uh a break of the low that we see today and then i'll be looking down to the the cure uh around 28 thousand seven five six since then has been on a bit of a downward spiral after peaking uh in the early hours of thursday but again you can see this trend we had a little false break uh around 130 on friday after non farm payrolls but just have a quick look here uh as a an area you would want to see to break if you're overall bullish so to the upside you've got the little trend line that we're in here uh and then around 29185 uh it would be pretty key for me to to want to uh to see break for if i'm going to get long the pound this morning just drifted lower per week last week i'm going to look on the 24 you can see pretty much from the off that you had those comments over over the weekend from from Boris which really dampened the the mood for pound balls and we're of course now let's get that daily chart out we closed the week below some of the key support which had been guiding price you can see here nice break below we uh perhaps now looking to extend it down towards 128 that's an area i'll be looking for uh not the biggest move to start the day uh but mainly when the volume starts to look to come back in you know that's uh a move where you could be targeting down to that 128 handle if you're bullish the old false break push above 129 39 is is an option um however i wouldn't be too sure that that's uh going to take place just yet so pound i think certainly to begin the week anyway uh would be favouring uh a move uh to the downside euro um well let's have a quick look you definitely want to have some of these uh longer term a horizontal what was support now resistance levels on you can see the amount of times we tested it october november and then again here on the future so keep a watch on that should we come back to test it if not then you are looking at those lows from last year uh as well so the euro under a bit of pressure let's have a look now on that 60 minute just to identify some of these areas that i would look to have on if we were to this recovery touch our one looks very key not just intraday but going forward as well you've got the high there from friday afternoon and of course that longer term support level as well pivot as active is a bit of uh resistance as it did so many times yet last week you can see early hours friday almost hitting it thursday the same wednesday tuesday and then on the break of that on monday so it's a good guide for the price uh if we were to come up there again just keep a watch on that and how it trades if you're looking for that continuation of course the break of of friday's lows is another option uh of that i would still be looking overall to get short we're keeping an eye on the dollar as well of course which is uh at levels not seem for quite some time ozdy dollars have a quick look of course that broke um some key support last week having had a decent bounce from the similar level so keep a watch on that we did close on the futures below those levels from august last year and as we put this on the the longer time frame if we are to continue lower well we just remove the pivots just to show you where the next level support could be and you're looking down near the financial crisis of 2008 and really i'd say the next technical level the higher the week of the ninth of march 2009 at uh 66.05 whether that's a target you want to get in right now or not i'm not too sure uh but let's have a look at the 60 minutes just to to hold some of these levels in with the pivots you can see well we're just testing that pivot now i guess early hours probably waiting for the break of that to continue to go short first test of it after breaking through uh it's holding up the zone of course have not broken there so you know the pivot was to break close below targeting the lows of friday and well i don't necessarily think we get the 66.05 level today but as your line in the sand goes if we were to close even i guess an hourly again below all this area of support you've got to be a seller in my book just a word of warning if it does push lower just be aware that could of course be this trend line that comes in to play around there as well have a quick look at gold just to finish it up starting the week positive drifting lower as asian stocks were covered initially keep a watch honestly on that high the the day it was also a level back on tuesday morning similar time to keep a point marked up for that we did have of course the the the break lower yesterday last week i should say for gold and just bringing in that trend line here that broke through you can see we we tested it all through what would have been thursday friday spiked after there on the uh non farm payrolls the jobs report and and really that's a trend line i would be looking to move and just identifying a couple new ones near those bottoms from the fifth you can see you got your one two three tests so if you're bearish let's wait for that to break and i would say this r1 is a good line in the sand as you will need and if that is to push on and break through the highs of the third etc are where you'd be looking for to be keeping an eye on on stocks here which have just touched lower a bit and obviously of oil going down stocks going down your safe havens is catching a bit as well could see a little flurry through to start the week but you know monday not expecting you know necessarily fireworks on the the calendar highlights front it's along with thursday the probably the quietest day so just just be careful out there you know want those confirmations bigger things to come this week hope you'll have a good one speaking of that and any questions please do let us know and i'll catch you all later on