 I'd like to turn now to someone right here in Abu Dhabi, and that's Joe Jaffa, a long-time observer of American policy, and the author of a book called The Myth of the American Decline. I wonder if that is true still, the myth of the American decline, or has it been disproven? Is the American, is American decline? No, it isn't, but that's not the case. I was going to actually follow on right here. And the question was, what's going to happen next two years? And in a moment like that, I take refuge with the greatest American baseball players of all time, Yogi Berra, who said, I never make predictions, especially not about the future. And the reason we are confused, so often confused about American foreign policy, is that it keeps going through cycles. Just in the 21st century, 20 years ago, we've gone to three or four. You get George W, who lives in a unipolar world, no checks and balances. So Gulliver, unbound, throws his weight around. He is then followed by the retrenchment by, and this may surprise you, retrenchment by both Obama and Trump. Now, why do I say that? Both of them pulled troops from Europe. Both badmouthed the Atlantic Alliance, one calling it obsolete. The other one complained about the Europeans being free writers, which aggravated him. Three, both Obama and Trump veered toward protectionism. We just heard some of this. And fourth, both of them, both of these strange mix of characters, flirt with the bad guys in order to reduce the cost of America's global role. So Obama hopes to rope in Iran, cold shoeless Israel, and Saudi Arabia, and Trump, as you know, plays footsie with Putin and Kim Jong-un. So here's the cycle. The reassertion of American power under Bush is followed by retrenchment, softly under Obama, brutally under the demolition man, Trump. And of course, these shits don't work. Bush dreamed of democracy promotion, no more war of nation building, while that receded into dreamland. And under Obama, Iran keeps expanding from Iraq to the Mediterranean, working diligently on the bomb. Two old Putin grabs Crimea and Ukraine's Southeast. So now the price question, what about Obama? And I told you, American foreign policy is confusing. Where is he on the cycle of reassertion and retraction? In honor, so the French around you will know Pierre Hasnel, one of the most brilliant guys in the business, Paris, who perfected the philosophy of the either on the one hand on the other hand. And in his honor, I will imitate him, his great style. So on the one hand, Biden immediately stops and reverses the pullout from Europe. Instead of bad-mouthing NATO like Obama and Trump, he fences. Next point. On the other hand, he picks up on Obama's Iran approach, trying desperately to revive the deal. On the one hand, Biden tries to tighten the bomb with Japan, South Korea, which Trump neglected, also tightening the alliance with Australia. On the other hand, Biden proposed Trump's most significant foreign policy achievement, the Abraham Accords. If you notice at contemporary verbiage that comes out of the administration, the word Abraham Accord doesn't appear. To China, we've heard of it, something was stew. Biden is far tougher than Obama and Trump, but on the other hand, this time the pivot to Asia, which never took place strategically, is for real. On the other hand, Biden rules out a clear commitment to Taiwan. The key word is ambiguity. On the one hand, Biden does cozy up to Europe, on the other, we've heard this, the Inflation Reduction Act is protectionism with another name. The gist is that non-US companies will not profit from the lavish subsidies, which will put them at a competitive disadvantage. Finally on Ukraine, which you're most curious about, on the one hand, Ukraine, remember that would be a goner by now if it hadn't been for the immediate American intervention with money and arms, 50-some billion by now. And that made the Europeans, very reluctant Europeans, come along. Even the French and the Germans. Why? Because once the US assumes leadership and extends protection, it's easier for smaller power to take the risk. On the other hand, last November has seen US feelers to the Kremlin, when Biden suddenly threw up the term compromise. A few days ago, when Macron was in Washington, Biden said, I'm prepared to speak with Mr. Putin if, in fact, there is an interest in him deciding that he is looking for a way to end the war. So the gist of these oblique offices, as the Russians are trying to annihilate Ukrainian cities and civilians, while preparing, by the way, for a new offensive, such hints are the wrong moves at the wrong time. And I'm glad what Stu Eisenstadt just reported, the old Congress will probably put through a bill for 37 million in aid. So who's Joe Biden, given his predecessors? Is he a retractionist, like Obama and Trump? An American first like Trump, who wanted to make America great again, by cutting costs and commitment? Remember the similarity. It was Trump who engineered the pullout from Afghanistan, which Biden executed. It's another similarity between the far right and the moderate left, is that both Trump and Biden are twins when it comes to American welfare and workers. These come first. So on this level, bitter ideological enemies, like Democrats and Republicans, are two peas in a pod, left and right together. It will further weaken the free trade system that the United States built and maintained after the war, after World War II. Ha ha, almost done. So my beloved pears now, who would not be off the mark with these dialectics, one hand and the other hand. American grand strategy has never followed a straight line. The cycles of reassertion and retrenchment are as American as apple pie. Entanglement starts right away in the revolution with the French alliance. Once that was over, America retracts into isolationism. It had much more interesting things to do, namely to conquer a whole continent without entangling with great powers. So that's because of these generations, only fools would make predictions. Plus a Western alliance as a whole that may be tiring, maybe, maybe, of the war. But the good thing about Biden, I conclude with that, though he has an ideologue on domestic politics, he does understand how the world has changed from unipolarity under Bush to this two-and-a-half power world today, America, Russia, China. It is a fierce competition with power, both military and economic, as hardest currencies. This mentor Obama didn't quite fathom these arising dynamics. So last point, on balance, I think Biden has performed better than all of his three predecessors. Now the new name of the game is a balance of power restored, the containment of the revisionist trio China, Russia and Iran. Not gulliver unbound, as I said before, but gulliver in the service of world order. In this new epoch, we are talking about a long haul, longer than the next two years, obviously. But my best news, I conclude with those, because of what I just said, we'll have lots to talk about over the next five of these conferences. Thank you. Thank you, Joe. And I'm not sure that... How do we... Yep. I don't know if Biden would like being known as a pee in the pod with Donald Trump, but... Hey, that's a stromalistic life. Right. I like it.