 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a lot of desperate teams in the NBA and the NHL right now on the brink of elimination The Celtics actually rose to the occasion last night staying alive in the Eastern Conference finals But we got a couple series where we could see some sweeps in the NHL as well We're gonna break down game number four between the Hurricanes and Panthers for today also talk about the Knights and The stars will talk some heat Celtics and talk about all these conference finals with Tom Vecchio right now Can he is reading the futures market and some individual games as well? Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire joint here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio You can find him on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom and Tom desperation looks good on the Celtics as last night was a Different kind of team it looked like how you doing today? I'm doing good. Yes It's glad I'm glad to be here, you know back as a guest on the show not hosting anymore The Celtics here they look good. I mean that was a best game that they played in like a week and a half since closing Up the series versus 76ers obviously they need to continue that if you want to see the series extended There's a lot to get to for these three games and the betting markets reacted pretty Significantly to that win last night for the Celtics. We'll talk about the series prices for that one Walsh talks Met HL talk about tonight gain number four between the hurricanes and Panthers Check in on the nights and stars and see if the nights can finish off that sweep tomorrow break down all that here Atom in just one second the first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast or break down the Charles Schwab challenge with Brandon Dula went up last night you can find that over on the covering the spread podcast feed and over on the fandal YouTube page Make sure to subscribe there if you'd like what you hear on YouTube leave us a thumbs up And if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating over on Apple podcasts Make a fast break to fend will during the NBA playoffs because right now new customers get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's $1,000 back in bonus bets if your win bet doesn't win There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than America's number one sportsbook Fandall official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money Wager only $10 deposit require refund issued is non-littrable bonus bets that expire in 14 days restrictions of apply seafold terms at fendall comm slash sports book fendals offering online sports Wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or visit fendall comm slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 533 4 2 in Connecticut 1 88 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit cc pg.org slash chat in Indiana 1 809 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1 805 2 2 4700 or in Kansas case gambling help calm Louisiana is 1877 770 stop in Massachusetts gambling help line ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Maryland and the gambling help that org and in New York 1877 8 hope and wire text open to why and in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Let's start things off here by talking about game number four between the Hurricanes and the Panthers right now in the Panthers Tom have a shot of the sweep here, but we do see a pretty tight money line Panthers minus 111 Hurricanes minus 108 the total in this game is five and a half with the under minus 124 the over at plus 102 So Tom we've got a situation here where the Panthers can go for the sweep there at home in this game But money line is pretty tight. So what are you seeing in this game as far as the traditional markets here? Well, ultimately, I'll be leaning on the under as I have been for most of this series You know right from the jump the first thing we should be noting Especially if someone out there is interested in the Keynes tonight Keynes money line First thing I'm gonna note is whether or not the Panthers top-line center Alexander Barkov aka Sasha Barkov Whether or not he's gonna play he left their most recent game early did not return They said and they were also winning that game when he didn't return. They said it was precautionary They're also, you know, they were on the path to being up three out They didn't have to push them out there etc etc Barkov two years ago won the Selkie trophy, which is the award for the best defensive center in the league He is very very good So him not being there tonight would give the paint would give the Keynes the best shot for them to win They've had this series. So Barkov does not play. I will be very interested in the Hurricanes tonight I will still be liking the under and just the way the series has gone I'm not expecting a whole ton of scoring. So the under is something I am a hundred percent in on and The Keynes money line is dependent on whether or not Barkov plays That Keynes money line is minus 108 right now. The under on five and a half is minus 124 and if if he can't go would that make the under even more attractive to you or Is he someone who influences? Kind of everything in this game. Well, he's very good at everything. He does I would still have interest in the under Regardless and I you know, even if he played and even if he didn't get hurt I would still have interest in the Keynes just because they are doing a lot of the little things, right? And just a just to paint a picture real quick to this point in the series They have and this is through all situations, which we've talked about five e five situations power plays shorthand and all these things The Keynes are doing a lot of things, right? They're just kind of getting unlucky to this point in the series They produce fourteen point five seven expected goals. They should be scoring While the Panthers are only at ten point one six So they're out producing them from a process standpoint, and they're still down. Oh three, which is obviously Unlucky when it's all seven done. They've also have more shot attempts 281 to 218 come for the Keynes over the Panthers. So the Keynes are doing literally everything, right? Except scoring Mm-hmm. So I would still just have interest in the Keynes fundamentally even if Barca was fully healthy Just because I think they're due for some positive scoring regression, right? the Keynes money line for this game is minus 108 right now for this match up here against the Florida Panthers and I think that It's interesting to see that number as you alluded to despite the fact They're down three despite the fact this game is on the road We're still seeing a lot of faith in the Keynes now their money line shifted to 110 As we're recording here. So clearly some interest here in the Hurricanes for this matchup now Asking you about a single game is one thing We'll get to player props in a second But do you think they have any shot to actually like claw the way back in the series because 3o is a big hole But like you said, they've been playing well three competitive games so far Is that a bridge too far for you or is least a consideration to check out the Keynes at nine to one to win the series? Ultimately, it's it's too much. It's too too much of a hole to climb out of Could they get one win? Sure, I would take definitely get one win, you know, especially in conference finals I really don't expect too many teams to get sweet to get swept. I should say for to see too many sweeps So one win sure Maybe two if they get a lucky bounce the game goes to overtime like we've seen two of these games go to overtime And like I said, they've been doing a lot of little things, right? They could have been up too well in the series instead of going to four over times and losing So one win sure maybe two but winning four straight. I do not see happening Okay, it's not quite sold in the nine to one But let's go back here to this game gainer four here between the hurricanes and the Panthers already on the under a five and a half And minus one twenty two and potentially on the Keynes money line as well. What about player props? What are you seeing there for this game? That would be directly to Brent Burns for the Carolina Hurricanes over three and a half shots that's sitting at plus 108 He is the defender on the top power play for them He leads them in shots this postseason over the last two games. He's only had a single shot in each game Obviously, that's not what we want to be seeing We also have to add in this desperation factor that they should be looking to get any and all chances to the net and Brett Burns Is usually very good at that? He did have eight shots in the first game of the series granted that game did go to quadruple over time So if they take that with a grain of salt eight shots is not the norm for Brett Burns But looking back at his you know game log in the prior games this postseason He's routinely getting to five four five six shots So he's always been that player when he's with the San Jose Sharks for the majority of his career So they have the desperation factor and we have a player that's being relatively consistent along with the high ceiling So Burns at plus money over three and a half shots is a spot that I absolutely love tonight if that fandals sports again the shut that prop as a Minnesota wild fan and I had no I like I give this is how little I pay attention to the NHL right I Because I was like I had no idea he was still in the league, but he's 38. I looked it up I thought he was gonna be like 43, but apparently he was super young back when I was watching him So again, I've been checked out for a pretty long time here, but 38 years old three and a half shots plus 108. I like it. It's ambitious and we'll see how that one go down Anything else you like in this game for tonight Tom? Not really you know some of the No, the Keynes have been good on defense. They really I mean losing a game one nothing like Yeah, the Keynes didn't they played a great game They just didn't score and and full credit to you know, Sergey Babrowski and net for the Panthers He's been stellar this postseason and and really pushing himself into the con smith trophy that the Panthers You know do make it that far and do in the Stanley Cup, but the Keynes played some pretty good games They just haven't been able to score so they're not winning It's weird to say a tough luck down 0-3, but I think that's definitely the case given There have been like 34 over time to cross the three games makes sense that they've had a rough go it's so far Let's talk now about the other Conference final in the NHL before we talk about some NBA the Vegas Golden Knights got a win last night once again now One went away from advancing to the Stanley Cup finals for game four their money line is plus 105 The stars are minus 126 looking at the the conference finals options here or the the the conference finals options Tom Stars are 10 to 1 That's something a pretty tough sell if we're not on the Panthers or the the Hurricanes at 9 to 1 given how well they've played I feel like the gap here is a bit bigger So anything stand out to you in the series prices or potentially for game 4 in this one For game 4, I would have to go with another under and you know, I'll be perfectly honest I I was on the stars last night I was also on the under last night and I did hit after three goals in the first six or seven minutes last night I was very worried about that, but I did take I did hit the under last night I'll be on the under again the stars at this point I think they've run out of gas and I've been talking a lot about the stars how they're due for this positive regression and Vegas is scoring at an unstable rate and That's gonna fall back down to earth and all these sorts of things and not Jake Andre the goalie for the stars He's been underperforming compared to his regular season rate And he should be also due for positive regression and I think they've run out of time Where? You know game one they lose okay happens over time game two they look better They still lose it last night was a complete nightmare for them going down 03 in the first few minutes of game now also losing their captain Jamie Ben because it got ejected from a game because of a horrible cross check just a Blatant cross check that he should not be making in that circumstance. They've run out of gas at this point So if I'm not interested like you said in the Keynes and 9 to 1 in the Keynes are better than the stars I have no interest in Dallas and Again, maybe Dallas comes away with this victory, but they will not close out the series was the Gas factor bad enough where you consider the night's money line at plus 105 or is that properly accounting for what we saw in? Last night's game. Yeah, I think that that's spot-on I you know if you got to plus if something changed dramatically and it got to plus 120 or so Which is not a massive movement, but it's still moving enough that that's the spot I had of interest in Vegas just plays such a solid game top to bottom and they do such a good job of Insulating Aiden Hill their goalie who's realistically their third string or it should have been their third string goalie That they don't have to do a whole lot on offense to put themselves in a spot to win where they're just so solid on Defense so the stars I faith in them I you know, I do have a bet on this game this series to go six games and Probably not looking too good right now well, we couldn't sell you on a On a hurricane's future. We could not sell you on a star's future Let's shift focus now and talks men be a because last night like I said the Celtics were able to keep that series alive As I did take down the Miami heat looking forward to gain or five in this series These Celtics are now eight point favorites total in this game is two fifteen and a half and let's start things off with the series prices Tom because it is Interesting to see the Celtics at plus 230 off of a one victory, but It's kind of like if this were 3-1 and they had one game one more the series price be probably pretty similar You know, it's not about momentum It's about like the situation the state of the series Is there any value for you in the Celtics of plus 230 any value in the heat at minus 280 potentially? What's your read on the series prices first then we'll talk about the game game number five the series prices I think are pretty spot-on I have no interest in either of them You know, we talked about a few things pre-show about how you would approach this betting market Could you just do a rolling? Moneyline parlay of the Celtics and I think that would be the answer to do if you truly think the South this can come back And when the answer is probably a rolling money line bets rather than taking them at plus 230 Which I do not think is long enough I'll be 100% honest I have the heat at 18 to 1 to in the NBA championship. So I do not want to see the Celtics come back and win Yeah, I think these lines are pretty spot-on You know if you wanted to say that okay Maybe the Celtics can grab a game or two, but they're not gonna win the series You could look at the series spread, which I think is relatively interesting. You can get the Celtics What is a plus one and a half games at what is plus 148 there? Yeah, that's relatively interesting You know again, I think there's just there's a better way to go about it It's probably just via the money lines in some capacity. Yeah So what you're talking about there is you bet the the Celtics money line tonight and minus if you like the Celtics again Copy out that, you know you to do the read of that first if you like the Celtics money line Take that tonight at minus 310 take the payout from that and put it on their money line the next game a rolling Rolling money line parlay you could consider that and you would likely get a better price than the plus 230 Unless something like if there were a Jimmy Butler injury or something like that maybe the plus 230 be valuable, but like you know We've seen that already, but I don't think that's a high enough odds to account for it that much within the handicap here Now you mentioned the the heat 18 to 1 When did you get that and what pushed you towards betting the heat at that number? I got that after the Was a game after Game to the next series when Jimmy didn't play and they lost Yeah And the series was going back home tied 1-1 and you know Jimmy was gonna play game 3 That's when I got it and I know just seemed like they were in a spot where I think you know The next were a good team and I think they were great and just objectively where that value lied In that series with them at the time given the fact that the 76ers were leading the East All right leading that series versus the Celtics. They were their odds were way too short I want to just take a very long shot on on the heat. Okay, so rooting for Tom's 18 to 1 ticket on the heat rooting for that stars Night series in game six games as well. We'll see if we can get that one But let's talk here about game 5 between the Celtics and the heat again The spread is 8 in favor of the Celtics total 215 and a half down a tick from where it was last night Anything stand out to you for game 5 specifically Tom Yeah, I think my overall takeaway from this game is that the Celtics win Okay, they do not cover and we see the under hit. Okay, so that's the route that I'm going I think Miami will close this out in six games. They will close it out at home so the under the Celtics to win but they do not cover and I think that we're gonna see either this game or it or if it goes to game 6 We're gonna see a game and like 98 to 92 It's gonna be an ugly old school eastern conference playoff game where we're not just, you know 94 89 type of game. It's gonna be really really low score Would you consider pairing the spread in the total together because those two bets actually do correlate pretty well Because it's harder to cover a large spread of fear if there are fewer points in the game Would you consider pairing them together the price and that would be plus 271 if Andrews sportsbook? They have to be good independent bets and I want there to be some kind of correlation This actually does check both those boxes. Fandall is aware of that because it's plus 271 instead of a little bit longer Would you consider pairing them together or no? I would I don't mind that plus 271. I think is It's pretty spot-on for where it should be. I don't think you'll find it any any longer Out there. Like you said there. It's obviously being accounted for for the right what it could be Yeah for correlation, but yeah, I certainly do like that, you know last night the Celtics You know, I want to say obviously they're best game in series They were shooting they were just dreadful from downtown in the first few games of series They shot 40% last night Which is obviously great and 40% is still just a touch too high in my opinion for the playoffs Especially with how good the heat are so they're not gonna be as bad as they were in the first few games I don't think they'll be shooting 40% as they were last night So if we do see that, you know 40% drop a little bit from downtown to Somewhere in the mid to low 30s that should decrease their scoring I think that's what will prevent them from covering, but they're still doing so many things right at least as they showed last night It'll put them in a spot to win Okay, well, I like it Maybe we can get a competitive series out of this still if we get that Celtics money line to come through minus 310 the spread plus 8 for the heat is minus 110 and the under 2 15 and a half is minus 110 as well should be a fun couple nights of Desperation across both the NBA and the NHL that is Tom Vecchio Make sure you check them out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom find his work over at number fire as well Tom Thank you for filling in for me while I was gone last week I appreciate that as always good luck to you with that stars nights bet and the heat future We'll talk to you again soon of probably before the NBA finals to get you read on that once things are all set there Absolutely, I'll be glad to join them. Alrighty. Thank you Tom and check out Tom again on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis You can also follow the Fandall podcast network at Fandall podcast tomorrow We are back here to preview the Indy 500 the Coke 600 and the Monaco Grand Prix same place Same time all right here with Dr. Nick Giffen of the action network will be up tomorrow afternoon over on the Fandall YouTube page and on the covering the spread podcast feed we'll talk to all of you Then good luck with your bets until then this has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network