 Yeah, we're glad to know you're still there and watching us. We're now joined by Mukta Mohamed, an international finance and economics analyst, who is talking to us from the United States. Good morning and welcome. At least good morning from Nigeria and welcome to the program. It's morning here, so good morning. But very early morning. Earlier morning. Very early morning. Yes. It's like when you go out and then you come back in around 1 a.m., and your wife asks you, why are you coming back so late? And you're saying, I'm very early, right? Mukta? Okay, well, today in Nigeria, all the things we're talking about is inflation. We're talking about the cost of living that has soared to unimaginable proportions. And now there is this worrisome thing that we always hear from the government that Nigeria spends over 99% revenue to service debts as inflation bites harder. We're looking at this, why is it even this way? 99% to service debts. What is left for us to enjoy, I'd say? So let's start to get your analysis on the fact that we do this as a country before we move on to the other matters. Well, unfortunately, it just happened for the past eight years. We saw this happening over and over again. It didn't used to be like this. I'm jokingly told people that from a country that has so much surplus in 1999, that at a point that we see the ministries and paracetals will not be able to spend their budgetary allocation. They have to return it to the federation account to a country that cannot even afford to pay salary rather than to borrow, either borrowing from the CB or borrowing from other means to be able to be. It's just the past eight years have been one of the most disastrous years of our economy. So I tell people that sometimes it's hard when it starts, it's messy at the middle, like where we are now. It's very messy. But at the end, sometimes, if we have the right policy, it could be gorgeous. For now, I think the present administration have a lot of work to do. Why are you hearing so much complain is because they are the ones that their own party was the one in power before they came in. Otherwise, we'll be hearing those excuses that we normally hear if a new administration come in and taking over from a new party. So for me, we are very hard to do because the former administration just never thought outside the box, just kept borrowing, borrowing until the last day of their living office. They were still borrowing and we're even planning to borrow for the new administration. Okay. What do you think the economic policies so far by this present administration are the things that you project because you just said it could get messy at the middle, but it could be rosy if the policies are the right ones. Do you think so far there is some level of confidence that it's going to get better in maybe the next six months? I think it's hard as we started, it's hard and that's why you are seeing what you are seeing now. A lot of hardship in the land based on some of the policies. I said it in one of your program is like you are supposed to have a surgical operation maybe 10 years ago and you didn't have it. We decided to have it 10 years after. The pain will be much comparable to when you would have had it before. So definitely we are in that place that we are feeling the pains because of some of these policy decisions we are seeing now that should have been taken a long time ago. The only person that attended to take those decisions was president and good luck and yet at that time these current people that are now in government oppose it for political reason and they are taking that same decision now. So it's going to be a mess in the middle and that's what we are seeing now. It's getting messy, people are complaining, it's hard, but guess what, they are putting up the structure. Now for us to get that gorgeous end, they must come up with the foundation. You can put up the structures like an Akita, you do a drawing that this is what the house will look like, then you need to start building and you need to have a strong foundation so you will be able to complete the building. Now what are those strong foundations? Those strong foundations are one, who are your cabinet member and two, your policy are there to deal towards providing employment. Now capitalism is about two things. Capitalism is all about democracy and prosperity. And now if your policies are not driven towards providing job for the middle class and the lower class and prosperity for the upper class, then your policy will fail in capitalism. So what we are seeing in Nigeria is full capitalism on play, market forces determining what will happen, government coming up with policies that are going to strangle the people at the beginning. Maybe at the end they could be light on the tunnel. So there's a lot of things that are going on in the next six months. I expect that when the minister comes, they'll begin to put foundation into the structures and then we'll begin to see those results, little by little. But if you tell me what are the right policies they are taking, first subsidy must go, it's the right policy, it's hard for us now. Second right policy, floating in the naira, fine. But you must have the ability to make sure the naira is stable. You must attract investors. Those are the foundations. These are the structures. What are the foundations? The foundation is that you must attract investors. What are the foundations? You've removed subsidy. What are the foundations for you to begin? You must make sure that those money are digitally spent towards providing employment and social investment also and then infrastructure for your people. If you get it right with what you have done, buy and buy this policy, then prosperity will naturally come. My people say that a dog that will be a good hunting dog will be known well is still a puppy. And this administration may be young, but there are some things that will give you an idea of what is to come. Now, in a situation where, for instance, we're talking about giving palliatives when fuel subsidy has been removed, and nothing has been said about making sure our refineries work. Some people even said that a state of emergency should have been declared in that sector, and the government should have made sure that, okay, they tell us that in the next three months, in the next six months, our refineries will be working. So even if we are not paying subsidy, there's a possibility that fuel price will come drastically down. They didn't do that. And it took an NGO, it took an organization to talk to the president to declare, to say in clear terms, how he's going to fight corruption because he has not said that. He didn't respond to that. And some other people are also talking about the fact that security has made prosperity in Nigeria to be stagnant. We are not moving anywhere towards being a prosperous nation because of the kind of security we have or insecurity that we have in our country. And so far, there hasn't been a definite plan that people will know how this administration is going to tackle security except for the changing of the service chiefs. So is this puppy showing us that it's going to be a haunting dog when it actually grows up? Let me tell you something. You hear the news on Twi's incident. He talked about security. I totally agree with you that when it comes to security, for now, I think the ministers or the service chiefs are still getting their footing on going on. Unfortunately, they are not just new service chiefs. Some of them have been in the forefront of the fight for insurgency, especially the calling chief of Amnistar and the calling chief of the defense staff. I think they know what to do, even the chief of Navastar and the chief of Amnistar. We just need to give them time to recheck those security apparatus. I believe strongly that we achieve something security that's especially with oil production and also with the Southeast, which for me is one area that the president must pride himself to have solved our problem, either through the carrot and stick approach. For the Northeast, I think for now, we are seeing a grief-rack, grief-yard and peace, even if there are scoffers of Boko Haram incident here and there, but you know that the nature is fully taking control of the spies and also the eco-war sub-regional forces are working in that space. So we are not seeing the kind of things we used to see before, whether they say military men are killed or what. I think for corruption, I said it, I think it was when I was on your program during the election and national campaign that of the three candidates, even the whole three candidates, nobody said the plan they had for fighting corruption in Nigeria. None of them, even Ita, B, Atikwa, Bubakam, Bola Tinibu, nobody talked about corruption. Everybody was just talking about what they would do to the economy, what they would do to the economy. And when Ita B was actually said, look, when you have the price structure of corruption generally die. So definitely, if you look at Bola Tinibu and the people that are surrounding him, you say that corruption has lost its battle already. See, they don't move off the EFCC chamber. We don't even hear anything about the EFCC again. What we hear is just the arresting of Yahweh, Yahubos, why the big criminals are walking the street free. So I'm not surprised about that. Now, for subsidy, it's not in the business of government in business. I've said it over and over. Those refineries are also rich refineries. Any part of the world, you don't see big refineries or that any longer. Remember, even the those that build the refineries are no more, they are no more in business. So definitely, that refinery is a cash trail. To me, previously, but the former minister for state for petroleum during the Bahrain administration told us that that refineries was what I call refineries were working in January. He never did, he never see the light of the day. So definitely, and now he's contesting to be the governor of ISST, you have abandoned the refinery project. I wish some people by ISST would have asked him that question to see whether that kind of person can be their governor. So I think the only thing I'm saying about the move on subsidy is like the president have finally said it was not in his speech. He's just decided to be emotional with it because they must have been palliative before you come up with strategy like this. And when we're talking about palliative, I hate the sense whereby they say palliative is all about bringing transportation, all about bringing food, all about giving people 8,000, 5,000, all about work and salaried. Those are temporary palliative. When you are doing economic palliative, you must look at the long term of those palliative. And one of the best palliative you can give at this moment is the area of creating job and giving tax bracket, especially for the civil service. And also the informal sector. You begin to try to see how you can reduce your tax burden on them so that they can not get... They won't be sacking their staff like what we are seeing now. A lot of companies will be doing lay-off because the income is just stagnant as it stands now. No matter the policy they are trying to put in, they won't see those results in the next one to two months. So definitely, I think you need to begin to look at putting no end in the hands of Nigerians. How much can Nigeria earn? How can you increase not just their salary? Can you increase their salary to 100,000 and they are still paying the same amount of tax? Work costs of goods and services have gone up at over 50%. It's all about a cycle. We'll still come back again to that cycle. So you must do something structural that will have a lasting impact in the short term and in the long term. We increase their eligibility and then the economy can move forward. Nigeria is a consumer-based economy. So once you don't have that resources to grow a communal-based economy, which has to do with liquidity, that economy will naturally continue to steadily or naturally die. Okay, but right now we're talking just finally now before we wrap up. We're talking about the fact that Nigeria spends 99% revenue on servicing of debts. What do you think the solution would be so that this cycle will be broken? We can't keep spending 99% to service debts. What can we do to get more money than we spend on debts? You know, most of those debt are based on infrastructure and some of this infrastructure can naturally generate revenue for themselves. Why didn't we do that? Why didn't we just put the switcher as collateral and we build and operate PPP like it's done in other developed nations on the world? Why didn't we do that? That is one way we can go about reducing our debt body. Secondly, we must attract genuine investors. I'm not talking about full investors. I'm talking about genuine investors, foreign direct investors to come in and also begin to help us grow our economy in the sense that they will come in with effects and that will bring stability in our exchange rate and that also will reduce our debt profile. As it stands today, why you see that 99% of debt is because of the exchange rate. From the government, I'm worried about 400 and 18 to a market determined rate of 803. Definitely you will see those numbers going up. So we need to begin to think outside the box. Most of this infrastructure, you look at how are they can actually be able to pay off themselves? You look at routes, you look at railway. If we decide to go what is done globally, the PPP way, then we'll definitely be out of the wood sooner than we think. I mean, we rest it and everything here is even in the global economy, it's PPP driven. There's nothing that is done by government. Government just create a new environment, keep it in the structure and then allow them to run smoothly. But government must be a good regulator and when you're talking about being a good regulator, it's not about cutting corners, doing what I do to Mr. A must apply to Mr. B. It's not that you give money to Mr. A to build refinery and Mr. B are telling to sort for his money himself. Government own idea is to create a new level of free and also make sure that you are highly controlled and let the private sector drive the economy. Okay. Having said PPP and all that and inviting or attracting investors, I'd like to get your description of the economic climate in Nigeria. Is it attractive enough for these people, these investors, genuine investors to come or there are things that need to be done? If they are, what are those things that need to be done for people to be attracted? Number one, when an economy is going to be down time, that's the right time for investors want to come because it will make more profits. So I'll just give you an example. When we did have telecom, there was no power. The lack of the telecom companies came in and most of them, but by the time they did media, they've been able to expand in other countries. So definitely when the economy is going through challenges, that's when investors see the gold mine to come. Now, so that is what is attracting a lot of people to Nigeria, especially the consumer set up the Nigeria economy because of our population. That means attracting a lot of people. What is those things that we need to put? Number one, have to get the rule of law. Rule of law is the whole idea. Once you don't have the rule of law, nobody want to come to your country. The situation whereby a case will run for six years or 10 years, nobody wants to come in search. So we must get them rule of law. Then in terms of intellectual property, protection of intellectual property, we'll talk about copyright. People don't want to come to an environment whereby intellectual properties are not protected. They want to come to an environment whereby they know that the intellectual property is protected. So all that also goes down to rule of law. So the first thing is rule of law. And then if they come and there's rule of law, then they will build their amenities. They will build infrastructure to blow the economy because at the long run, it's going to be a moving situation for them. So for me, it is one thing we need to put in place to attract investors now. We need to make sure that there is rule of law and there is value for intellectual properties. Okay, well, thank you very much, and Mukta Mohamed for coming on this program. And sorry we had to wake you up so early. Thank you. My pleasure always, my pleasure on this. Thank you so much for having me. Okay, that was Mukta Mohamed, International Finance and Economist Analyst. He was talking to us from the United States, and that is where we wrap it up on, or this is where we wrap it up today on the show. Remember the words of John Lennon. He says, life is what happens when you're busy making other plans. We hope that you remember that all the time. Live your life and be a good citizen of Nigeria. My name is Nya Mukuna. Have a nice day. Thanks for being back.