 Welcome to Tick-Mail Weekly Market Outlook for week-menacing February 1st with me, Patrick Munley. The dollar has had a pretty strong week versus most peers as a choppy risk environment revamped safe haven demand for the greenback, outside of the pause in the dollar. Decline seen during January has not been accompanied by a weakening of the key arguments in favour of a medium-term bearish view on the dollar. Red reiteration of its lower for longer stance leaves the dollar at real rate profile as firmly unsupported to the currency. And I'm trying to think a resumption of a stable risk rally looks likely in coming weeks. An usual driver of risk appetite in the past few days have been retail trading-induced high volatility in some stocks and trading restrictions applied by platforms like Robinhood. That surely remains one threat to follow and might keep investors jittery for a little longer, suggesting fresh defensive dollar positions may not be unwound just yet. That said, next week we could actually see market's focus shift back to more textbook fundamentals as the first bunch of hard data for 2021 is released. The January jobs report will be the highlights of the week and I'm expecting 100,000 prints, which is slightly above consensus, but unlikely to generate much market excitement. What could instead drive a more tangible market impact is any development on the US fiscal stimulus scrunch as President Biden will attempt to talk some Republican lawmakers both in the House and the Senate into sporting his $1.9 trillion plan given a razor-thin majority has cast out over his ability to push the bill through Congress. All in all, we could be looking at some stabilisation in the dollar next week, although the balance of risks beyond the short-term remains tilted to the downside. From a technical perspective, we've been trading within this 1991 band in terms of the dollar index, a close through the 91 resistance area will open the Equal Lebs Objective at 91.68. I'll certainly be paying attention to price action in this zone. What you've embarrassed reversal patterns to set short positions targeting a move down through the 89.17 lows on route to an ideal Equal Legs Objective on the weekly charts at the 87.50. The euro has held above 121 for most of last week, showing further signs of resilience to dollar buying pressures and an unencouraging contagion data in Europe, surely helping the euro momentum has been the above consensus reads in Germany, France and Spain's fourth quarter GDPs, which were released on Friday, which suggested the economic impact of the COVID-19 wave, the second wave, has been less pronounced than the first one. On the back of these data, we can expect the euro zone to have contracted by less than 1% with respect to GDP in the fourth quarter of last year. That may not be the only piece of data providing some support to the euro zone sentiment in the week ahead, as generate perimally inflation numbers are set to rise thanks to German VAT increase and higher energy prices, while the dollar may fail to show signs of weakness, don't see any reason for the euro to lose its resilience. One thing we do want to keep attention on is the potential political developments in Italy, but that should remain the marginal story for the euro as the risks of early elections still appear low. So from a technical perspective, the euro dollar continues to hold 1,2050 support. As it does so, I'm looking for a move higher to ultimately retest the 1,20350 highs on route to the 1,20450 objective, could extend a bit further than out to test the projected sentiment trend line resistance up to 1,205. Sterling continues to reap the benefits of the fast vaccination process, which puts it ahead of its major peers, with the currency being undervalued based on medium-term fair value models. The valuation gap should continue closing throughout the year, and Sterling is set to gradually appreciate throughout the remainder of the year, in great part helped by the eventual restructuring of the euro. The big focus next week is on the BOE meeting on Thursday. Expect no change in the policy rates and no clear signal at negative rates, which I don't see as well, which I now see really as even less likely than earlier in the year, given the relatively fast vaccination process in the UK. Although the BOE may formally lower its estimate of the lower bound to below the zero mark this week, don't expect policymakers to hint that negative rates are imminent, particularly if the UK economy is set to start recovering from the second quarter onwards, in turn having limited impact on Sterling. So Sterling from a technical perspective continues to consolidate just below 1,30750. I'm looking for a break higher to test stops and offers at 1,3850 from there. I think we could see a pullback to retest the 1,35 area support, but ultimately I'm looking for a move now to test the psychological 140 level as the medium term upside objective. Despite the rising risk aversion, the yen is was actually the worst performing currency in the G10 last week. Interestingly the one-week risk reversal on the yen has risen to its highest level since early 2017, indicating a sharp rise in the demand for calls on this pair. These dynamics are confirming the recent indications that the yen is playing secondary role to the dollar when it comes to safe haven bets. With highly skewed net long positioning in the yen the dollar stands on the complete opposite side possibly contributing to the inability of the yen to build momentum. Ultimately however it boils down to the yen's strong inverse correlation with US Treasury yields, where another US Treasury sell-off saw the 10-year yields rise back to the 1.1% mark. I'm not really expecting yields to age back down and actually probably seeing the 10-year move into the 115-120 range early this week and that may be supportive of the dolly yen in the early sessions this week. So from a technical perspective we tested and held the 10490 area on Friday. I'm looking for some corrective pullback to tests bids down to 104 and then looking for a test of the equal-legs objective versus this structure here at 105.09 and we have the yearly pivot at 105.50. This is going to be a key battleground for the dolly yen. I'd certainly watch for bearish reversal patterns to set short positions. Could certainly target a move back down to the 103.30 support area and potentially we break lower from there to test the 101.20 median term downside objective. In Australia the Reserve Bank of Australia meets this week and will face a similar dilemma to the one faced by the Fed last week. How to make an unarguably improved outlook coexist with its ultra-dubbish stance. The bank will release new forecasts and there is little doubt that those will take into account the improved unemployment and inflation pictures but the rhetoric will remain cautious and firmly on the dullish side. As usual currency comments will be particularly in focus although I would be surprised to see the RBA changes stance on the Aussie at this point. The recent rise in Australia's terms of trade makes it hard to argue that the currency is materially overvalued. Could see the Aussie react positively to the rate announcements on the back of upgraded forecasts which might spark some speculation of earlier than expected tightening. So from a technical perspective whilst we continue to hold support at the 75.60 area I'm looking for prices to extend higher here and to take out the prior cycle highs at the 78.24 on route to test the 80 level as the next upside objective. Really at this stage only a close back through this ascending trend line support at the 75.20 area would concern this bullish view and suggest a deeper pull back to test bids back towards the 70 angle. As always traders be sure to join me on Thursdays for live market analysis covering 26 instruments all the major forex pairs indices commodities and bitcoin. So I hope you all have a good week and I hope this helps.