 Welcome, traders, to another live market analysis session with me, Patrick Munnally. If you can hear me and you can see the tick mill welcome screen, if you just have a Y in the chat box, so I know that we're good to go. Okay, so before jumping into today's material, as always, want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Respect to today's conversation, the views expressed by me are solely mine and they are not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. So for those that are here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself after I graduated from university, I left, sorry, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues after a few years and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup focused on C-suite executive search for tech startups. Having a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets quite literally overnight and with university friends in investment banking and hedge funds, I decided to explore the markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or more of every day gambling and after some early beginners luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, the beginners luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into positions giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure hit to my personal capital. I'd say this was gut-wrenching sobering experiences and under statements, had to really stand back and figure out if it's feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years. It was a time during which I not just my technical game in terms of developing strategies that importantly suited my personality. I researched, developed and extensively back and forth tested these strategies, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably the most important watershed shift I made was from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming more process-orientated. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. From 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering annual positive returns and you can see the performance data on the screen. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've also personally mentored hundreds of traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to what I believe is best in class online brokerage tickmail. Most recently, I've also been retained as the head of trading and trader education for a leading education brand called fxcareerswap.com. At fxcareerswap, we're offering development and funding to retail trading talents. At fxcareerswap, we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge, we work on mindset development through a structure program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. That gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. Now we're going to jump into the markets and take a look around and see where the next opportunity set is developing. Before I get going with the charts, I've got a bunch of charts that I've flagged here that I'm going to run through. If you have any questions or as a chart that I don't cover that you'd like me to take a look at, if you can just wait till the end, I'll open up for a brief Q&A once I finish with the charts that I'm looking at. Okay, so let's get going here. So S&P 500, we're going to start with obviously the benchmark for risk appetite, global risk sentiments, and we are trading up into a pivotal area I think at the moment. Yesterday we tested this 4150 zone, a bit of a pullback, but we've since recovered that overnight. I'm looking for us now to certainly test into 4167, which is this is sending trade line resistance. Now something to bear in mind, we've got options of expiration taking place tomorrow, where traders will be rolling out of the March contract into the June contract. This is in the futures market. So that's likely to cause a bit of volatility and what I perceive may be the case and we'll see how we finish up on today's session. Well, one of two scenarios that I'm watching and both should provide an opportunity. If we roll over here, I'll be watching for a three-way corrected move back into the 4000 level, potentially 3960 zone. What's your bullish reversal patterns of that? This is the scenario to set long positions, but I think more likely at this stage given the state of the market and how the market's underpinned with this huge amount of stimulus and liquidity, I think what we might see is a is a run up here to test the 4200. So we've got weekly range resistance at 4222, monthly range resistance at 4247, and just above 4290, we've got the yearly R1 pivot. So I've been watching this zone here for bearish reversal patterns, especially if we get up into that area tomorrow and we come in on Monday looking a little weak here, I think that will offer an opportunity to play a corrective move into next week as we digest the options expiration action. If we can get that set up, if we can get these bearish reversal patterns in this zone, like I say, I like to be short. In terms of the set up, I don't think we're, I'm certainly not anticipating any meaningful massive correction at this point anyway, and what I'd be looking for would ultimately be a wave three corrective move. If this is going to be a wave one, two, and we're in our third wave here looking for that extent to extend up in here, then what I'd look for would be an equality type swing. Let's just see if we can measure that versus this swing here. So we'll overlay that like that, and then we will get our fifth wave here versus an equality objective from our wave one. So this is the type of thing I would, I'd be looking for is a move back, is a move up into this target zone, and then a correction before we take off again to the other side. So I'm, I'm, I'm essentially looking to try, I'm looking to fade this, this third wave high here, if I can get the price pattern confirmation. And if we can get through this trend line resistance as the initial confirmation that we're heading up into this zone. So that's what I'm watching with respect to the S&P NASDAQ, similar scenario here in the NASDAQ. I'm looking for us to test now up into, we've got this pattern here in the NASDAQ, we're in this send and train channel. So I'm looking for the NASDAQ to get up into this resistance area, 14,400, 14,450. And again, I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns here to set short positions to play for the wave four correction. And then from there, using the same measuring technique, if this pattern plays out, then we'll be looking to reengage on the long side after we've seen at least a three wave corrected move to then target new highs up into 14,700. So those are the two index scenarios that I'm watching at the moment. We appear poised here to push higher into options of exploration. And then I think we could get a bit of a pause profit taking pause. And certainly I want to try and participate in that before looking to realign with the with the bullish trend there. So that's what I'm watching with respect to the equity index is dollar. So we talked a couple of weeks ago just at the start of April about the seasonal tendency for the dollar to kick in with a bit of weakness here. And that's what we've seen play out at this stage. The scenario, certainly this is the equal weighted dollar index is it looks corrective, we can clearly define the three waves here. Let's actually bring in the trend tool. So you can see we're sitting just at the equality objective now. So if this move is to prove corrective, we'd anticipate that the prices stalled out here at this 117 area. And then we'd look for bullish reversal patterns to look for long positions in the dollar. Sorry, this is the dollar versus the Aussie, the yen sterling in the euro in equal measures. And if we get bullish reversal patterns here then the target on the upside versus the swing low here at 117, the equality objective puts stuff at 120. So again, see how we come in back on how we close up tomorrow because one of the key factors to keep in mind is that the majority of these corrective or corrective reversals let's say occur on Fridays and Mondays. So we want to pay close attention to how we trade into the start of next week because this correction could be over or if we don't find support here then I think we're heading back down to test the 117. Let's take a look at the DXY, not quite as clean a pattern here in the DXY. Obviously the DXY is a broader gauge, broader basket, six currencies. What I'm looking for now is really we're looking at another test here of the 1913. So we've got weekly range support 19135. So again similar scenario here if we can get down into this zone and get some demand coming into the market and certainly I think we can get back up and have a look at 9250 but what I'd be thinking to myself at that stage is that this is the initial leg of the bigger corrective move to play out and have us down testing support at 1950 which is the monthly range support we've got this ascending trend line coming in here just below 1930. So I pay close attention to the how this pattern how we trade if we if we put in a base here if you can maybe you can look onto the four out time frames and watch for three three wave corrective move into this resistance zone and I think we then might see another leg lower in the dollar yields have obviously come off from their from their highs here not a major major correction at this stage more a correction in time than price and I still think we can we can see this looking for that that two percent test of all the Fed speakers and they are pretty much coalescing around this idea now of certainly starting to think about tapering in terms of monetary policy so we'll see how that is into the year gold looking I was looking for a pullback into the monthly pivot here we've got weekly range support 1714 to to look for long positions it might be the case now to start thinking about fading sorry engaging on a breakout through these prior highs at 1760 looking for this test of the 1800 yearly pivot from below silver similarly now it looks I was looking for the symmetry swing resistance versus this last corrected swing here to to contain this upside did it did on the first test but we're looking we're looking pretty bullish here so when we get that scenario develop we now have a new swing that we can measure to give us some targets if we can take out these highs and what we'll be looking for then would silver to trade up to 2645 on a close through this high here at 2555 crude oil similar scenario here now that we've taken out this swing high then we can change the measuring objective here for crews because we what we've potentially got with crude now is an ABC correction and see we're getting a bit of supply here at the equality objective 62 75 now if we hold here and we get we get a decent bearish reversal pattern then we still have got the potential for us to trade the broader broader corrective pattern so what we'd be talking about here would be this scenario where we correct correct correct and probably do an impulse move now down to test this ascending trend line support the equality objective versus the current swing high if this plays out that is would be 52 67 and from there we'd be looking for long positions to take out this wave three high at the $68 mark so we'll see if this pattern is going to play out certainly from my perspective I'd want to see it close back through the daily bwap coming in at 60 70 in terms of crew for this pattern to materialize copper talked in previous sessions about the bullish underpinnings for copper based upon stimulus and this this idea of massive infrastructure programs in the US whether or not that's all going to pass well we still have to see but certainly market wasn't prepared to take copper lower and we're consolidating in a bullish trend pattern here potentially breaking to the upside and if we do take take this upside movement if we can get if we get it closed here through trend line resistance then what we can anticipate is something like this to play out with copper up into into this trend channel high here $4.80 so see see if we can get the close see if we get the retest and then some type of pullback into this area to act as support at 415 and then that could set up the pattern on the long side for copper bitcoin obviously with the coinbase IPO yesterday taking out its its reference price at the open goes a little bit weak into the class but I think it's kind of finding support in advance of the open so that's all basically bitcoin take out its prior highs at 61 79 I'm looking for bitcoin now to test this ascending trend line here weekly range of distance 66138 67365 and the thing I'm paying close attention to is this glaring divergence that we're getting and I I sense that that could set up for a little bit of a washout here in terms of positioning shake out some of the weekends where I'd ideally love to to look again at bitcoin we'll be around this trend line support that comes in at 50 000 level here that could be the base then for for the next big leg higher and ultimately I think we get up and take a look at this ascending trend line up into the 83 000 zone so that's what I'm I'm watching in bitcoin I don't try it as such I have a have a cash position I've been holding this last october and I would certainly consider adding to it if we've got a test into this area you've got some got some demand coming into the market there that would be certainly exciting or cheesy dolly one continuing to correct here we've got an open upside objective at the 664 level as we hold 647 the support just consolidating at this stage but that's the upside objective versus this swing low dolly yen has pulled back correcting this advance one two three four five six seven eight so we can expect this now to you know where we get eight swings more likely than not we're going to see 11 swings so eight nine ten 11 and that will give us the equality objective here at 130 06 so again I'm watching as we trade into this support zone here we've got weekly range support 108 40 uh 108 50 was a decent level uh acted as support after the initial break so if we can get bullish reversal patterns here I'd like to take a look at the dollar dollar yen on the long side targeting this this 113 equality objective so we see in line with the other dollar majors has uh has come back got a bit of demand coming in yesterday as we retested the early pivot from above let's see now if we can potentially get up and put in a corrective leg here three wave pattern back into this 93 60 area I think that would be an opportunity on the short side to to play for a deeper corrective move to play out in the swissie dollar cad been in and out of this one it's it's looking like we we are going we're going to roll over here now certainly as we trade below this uh the five-period vwap that sets up a move for this 122 50 the descending trend line projected sending trend line support and uh the monthly range support at 122 65 euro have been long a couple of times in this in this swing up here and taken some some nice profits what I'm thinking it is now that we're trading we've we've actually traded into a symmetry swing resistance so if we look at this last corrective wave here and we overlay it versus our current correction you can see to the tick almost we're we're stalling out of it here at 119 91 it's been a lot trader or sorry desk chat uh through the uh the investment banking trading desk with respect to the potential for a very large double no touch option in play from uh from a chinese fund uh that means that they get paid up they get paid on the option as long as price doesn't trade 120 or above or 117 below so it's a it's a it's a bet basically on uh on consolidation and and certainly as we got up towards 120 yes there was a talk of some big offers in the market as the as that fund obviously going to have to hedge their position to try and protect sorry try and protect it um and we're seeing a bit of a stall out here so if um if this sets up and we get a bearish reversal I think there's a trade there to get a retest of 118 50 and then we'll see if uh if the balls are serious here in terms of taking this higher uh that would give us uh you know that will also be the 50 percent retracement of this move and then I think we could look for a test of the 120 18 descending trend line resistance euro yen uh starting to stall out so this this double top area I've been watching um and you can see we've got momentum divergence and so we just haven't really rolled over every time we've traded down into this 129 80 area bits have come into the market so I want to see that that you know I'm going to see these tails taken out on a closing basis and then you can start to think about getting a move certainly down into the trend line support here 128 47 whilst we hold the bits here there is still a chance that we get up into this ascending trend line resistance before that correction takes place so it's going to be pivotal to see which way we break here as of this uh 138 and 129 59 because I think that will give us the next 150 150 200 bits either way uh an opportunity with the euro yen euro swiss this is one I was watching just in shy of my my target zone here and uh we've since seen a nice move to the upside so if you're in this you certainly should uh you certainly should be risk-free uh whilst we hold support here now I think we can start to think about getting up into the top side of the ascending trend line certainly monthly range resistance on 11 75 euro sterling so what I'm thinking now with respect to euro sterling if uh if this is our wave one two this is our three potentially completed here nice divergence so what I'm looking for now is three wave corrective move so ideally we see something like this and then the target for the correction the initial target is always the symmetry swing so the symmetry swing obviously what I'm referring to is this wave uh too high overlaid versus our three low and you can see that's what gives us the target so watch for a correction here um and I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns to get in on the long side in terms of uh in terms of euro sterling there to play for that second leg higher euro ozzie nice outside rejection yesterday from that wave four resistance we're taking out the trend line now so I think the scope here for the euro ozzie to trade down um into certainly back into the lows here 152 70 probably a bit of a bounce there but then ultimately I'm looking for this wave five quality objective versus our wave one swing here would have us down 149 94 in terms of the euro ozzie euro cat similar scenario really we uh we've got this the quality objective achieved versus the this last corrective swing and if we're going to bearish reversal today you can see these tails plenty of supply then I think we've got a wave five to the downside to think about in terms of the uh euro cat at 145 so just want to see that confirmation got a little trend line and play there that it'd be nice to see this go on a closing basis to just add some downside momentum into the euro card similar story in the euro kiwi but note we've come into a third test of this trend line here and we haven't been able to break it so for me to get interested in this I'd want to see a close below the trend line uh to to be looking at short positions but we're holding for now sterling I've uh this has been a frustrating one this week because there was a great pattern set up but I think some of the shine has left sterling um that premium about you know the vaccine rollout and the positioning that we've seen the big positioning shift has seen a little bit of the shine from off sterling and we're struggling really to get to ignite on the upside of mentions so I've been in there a bunch of times on this this week um whilst we hold here uh whilst this monthly pivot axis resistance and the descending trend line there is still a chance that we uh we take a look at 135 44 which is the equality objective versus the 140 swing high so if we can't get through here and we get bearish reversal patterns then I'll uh I'll flip on that and I'll look to the shorter side in terms of sterling sterling yen sitting at this trend line uh hasn't been able to to do anything meaningful as of yet but I'd certainly watch for a potential head and shoulders top here that could develop in uh in sterling yen otherwise we uh we could take it out take the trend line out here and um and still hold the monthly range support hold his price for and get that uh that scenario to develop in terms of a double top and an abc corrective move to play for sterling swiss uh similar story here with sterling swiss is a pattern that I like to uh to track and it looks like it might say up here well we have that final swing into the high and then we have a symmetry swing as the first correction from this downside so what we look for would be a move like this into that symmetry swing resistance to set up the next leg to the downside for the correction Aussie has had a nice lift um this week on the uh on the risk on commodity sorry the risk on sentiment in markets uh often supports these commodity currencies but look where we are sitting right at now uh symmetry swing resistance and we also have let's measure this abc we're just in the zone there now so I'm going to pay attention here similar scenario to the euro coming into these these areas and uh and start to see a bit of uh some chips we've taken off the table and we just have to see if that turns into a reversal because versus this swing high here at 78 51 we serve an open downside objective at 74 67 so again just going to pay attention thinking if these markets the if the s and p starts to have a bit of a wobble post the options expiration and that would feed into this this Aussie scenario also taking its cue from the from the s and p a couple more here let's have a look Aussie yen back into its resistance area again this this whilst we hold 84 48 as resistance we have an 81 32 downside objective if we take it if we take this level out then the the other thing we want to pay attention to is the equality objective which would actually put us back in for a potential double top scenario here so a couple of key areas to keep an eye on the double top or if we roll over here then I still think we can take a look at 81 32 Aussie Swiss all nice pop yesterday coming into some trend line resistance here now so if we can take that out protect that trend line out then and this could move higher but if we fail here at the trend line and roll over suggesting this is a false break to the outside various reversal patterns have a an open downside target at 69 53 versus 72 swing high Aussie cat similar story here has come right into its corrective objective and we'll see if these roll over in the coming days if they can't take out the equality objective here at 96 88 then that sets up for another leg to the downside was a Kiwi whilst we hold 1876 watch for 107 27 let's take a look at the Kiwi Kiwi has done the same thing it's coming to its equality objective here as well we've exceeded it slightly but like I say watch these candle closers tonight because we're seeing a bit of supply here back retesting the monthly pivot from below so if we roll over here then there's still a downside objective open here versus the 72 70 swing high at 6902 nothing in that one Kiwi Swiss set up nicely yesterday but again has come straight into that trend line resistance and we're seeing a little little bit of first supply coming into the market so if you're in this certainly want to be rolling your stops up to to risk free now and we'll see if if we can take it take out the trend line then and certainly there's an upside potential here to take out the price cycle high the way three high 67 66 but has to get through this resistance area to confirm so that's the charts I'm watching where I see opportunities developing pay close attention to where we close the week certainly watch these equity indexes post the options expiration tomorrow if we see some weakness coming into the close tomorrow then want to be starting to think about the little bit of dollar strength coming in to correct some of the recent weakness and certainly some of these commodity FX pairs the euro uh are ones to uh are ones to watch are there any questions hi mitchek hello mitchek can you hear me hello mitchek yeah hello can you hear me I can indeed how you doing I'm doing fine so these questions aren't specifically regarding the charts that you've shown but I've got a couple of questions regarding the strategy that I'm back to this thing right now specifically you told me about that so just starting off with yeah so for the core swing strategy in terms of continuation trades right and obviously you've got your it's got to be trading above or below like 75 or 20 and then you have to have your signal candle as well but in terms of entering these positions like what what if they're like trading around the central tendency like because sometimes I do enter those positions when I'm backtesting and they just go completely against me so like is there something else like significant levels that I could be using to identify if that's what what what will greatly improve the continuation is if you are if you have uh if you use the central tendency on the 20 period back on the daily time frame basically give you a read on what the weekly trend is okay so for example here where we get this rotation up into the high we pull back into the central tendency central tendency is green so that's telling us that the trend is up the monthly trend is is green and then once we get that first rotation from the five period b-wap also green that gives us almost a triple con confirmation that we're you know the trend is still intact okay and you can also see here as we pull back we're really just pulling back into these prior highs and they have to support so you can think in terms of basic support resistance to add additional conformation but more the key really what you want to be paying attention to is the orientation of the b-waps okay so they're gonna they're gonna be the best indicator in terms of confirming the trend we've also got a bullish site signal down here and we've got the bullish uh weekly time frame rsi stochastic and we get a bullish reversal here in terms of the near term rsi stochastic does that make sense and also like around these significant levels so I usually draw trend lines like yearly so like a year back so like significant levels around those around those levels so how would you go about it because sometimes price there's like strong upside momentum and then I get a signal for a short from my swing strategy and then I enter that trade and it just goes completely against me in that as well would you like yeah to my mind when you're thinking the way the strategies are broken down are basically to teach each section independently so you can gain an understanding of how each component works but what you want to ultimately do to in terms of trading them successfully is combine them yeah so the major filter for trading a gift for trading a correction or a mean reversion trade is you have to have divergence so if you don't have divergence in terms of momentum then you should just pass on trading you know trying to trade against the trend and equally you should be able to define once you've once you've learned how to to look at the market structure if you're going to be trade if you're going to be fading a trend you want to be able to identify whether or not there's a potential wave 5 higher or wave 3 high okay okay last question but certainly as a basic component you want to make sure if you're going to if you're going to take a swing against the trend that you've got decent divergence okay and also last question this one was for the divergence strategy I'll put on Skype as well it was the for the divergence strategy so like let's say you've got a new swing law and then that test the support band but then the prior law that it just took out does that have to test the support band as well for it to be like a divergence setup yeah I mean this is this is something I understand I can understand what you're saying conceptually you don't you I personally don't use divergence in corrective moves so I'm only interested in looking at divergence into a new high like this yeah if you're talking about divergence here I find it less reliable to be looking at divergence in corrective phases okay okay does that make sense okay thank you I'm always paying attention to divergence in terms of the current trend not in terms of the correction what I'm looking for in terms of the correction is the equal X okay so can I can I identify an equality objective for price to correct okay yeah cheers good sir thanks for the questions Michelle any other questions if there aren't if you don't have a question type an n in the chat box it's just as useful so that I know we're all on the on the same page and I can wrap this this session up here good stuff okay I'll I'm going to close this one out and we'll reconvene at the same time next week have a great weekend everyone