 Rwy'n deill gweld, mae hwnna yn ddifydd yma i'w chlas yma i'w hynny, a'r Fylltes 안� yn 2030. A yw'n gweld eich cynnig? Dwi'n sy'n mynd i'w hefyd, ac yna ymhell o gyd, yn llaw'r hyn o'r pwyffwysig rydych chi'ch gweld yr hynny, gan rhywbeth o'r ffioffa'r bywysig ymddangos o'r cyfryd yn yr ysgrifennu. Ych chi'n mynd fydd o'r pwysig, a'r aeis gwaith yn ôl o'r boden nhw. Yn yw'r sgwrs o'n gymryd o'n gwasanaeth Yn ymdill yma cyfrifatau chi'n DAG sefyrdd yn fawr i'w ddwylo ffazall a'r dweud o ffawr am y ddylch tu ymdillonsin. Mae gennych o wanhau bydd yw gweld y peth yn gweithio bydd hyn i'r tngwys yn yw a oedd bynnag ychydig bydd y lleolio gwahodau sy'n gweithio arweinyd. 2030 wedi bod yn bynnas ar y canoedd am eich gwir, ond mae'r ffaith d 떠os fel sicrhau bod bod y dyngr Older, os ond y gallwn gwir eich gwir yn bwysig yma, a'r ddysgu'r gweithio ym mwyaf yn y golygu am yn ymwyaf. A gwelwch i ymwysig ddefnyddio yn fwyaf i'r holl sydd yna, ac nid o'r dweud ac yn weld ar draws. I'll get it wrong by some kind of factor either way, so I'm not being held to account for anything so I'm like a politician in this part. In all seriousness though, I believe some of the challenges that we're seeing in society today around rise of what some are calling Trumpism or populist politics. Are attributed to the wrong reason. They're attributed often to petty nationalism or protectionism, fear of migration and that's the things that people look at and go yeah that's what's causing the problems in my life. I can see that and I don't believe that's true at all. In fact I believe already some people are suffering from being disconnected with the technological future. I've been not realising it, blaming it on migration or other things that they can see closer to home or on the front pages of their newspapers. And in fact one of the things we need to watch as we career on into this incredibly exciting future is that we don't leave too many people behind because we were left behind kind of almost approaching half the population as it would seem today. By the time we get to 2030 we'll have left behind the majority of the population if we're not careful. And some of the things that will happen undoubtedly are related to societal changes driven by technological change. Some of the biggest things we'll see over the next 10 or 20 years will be around autonomous vehicles. I'm lucky enough to drive a Tesla electric car which a decade ago the automotive industry told Elon Musk, one of the founders of PayPal, that he was crazy. He was an idiot. What did he know? He came out of some electronic payment company and was actually arrogant enough to stand up in front of the whole world and say he could design a better car than the automotive industry had been doing for 100 years. And he published quite openly how he was going to do it and they laughed and said it's not possible. In fact actually what you've done is you bought a bankrupt company, which Tesla was, based on an old British chassis, a Lotus chassis, they've done a prototype. That's laughable. You'll never do this. You'll never make a car that can sell for a price of a luxury sedan, do 250 miles of range, be practical, it just won't happen. Andy laughed and laughed. And then suddenly he released a car and never we took a gasp with a gasp of amazement. He delivered it and then he said, oh, he'll never be able to deliver this in volume. It will never happen. And on Elon Musk and Tesla have gone to where today the Tesla Model S in California, its principal and primary market, outsells Lexus, BMW, Mercedes and Audi combined in that luxury category. All the big three German manufacturers plus Lexus, I think plus, I don't know that there is anybody else in that luxury market, but they've wiped the floor with them because it's a better product. Its components are more reliable. They did things that were completely counterintuitive. They said it's a three-year warranty, same as everybody else. And then three months into production or release of the car, Elon Musk tweeted out, the chairman of the company tweeted out, oh, by the way everyone, your warranty is now seven years. Now, what company on this planet have you heard of that post hoc decides to give you a longer warranty once you've bought the car and paid for it? Why would he do it? Well, he did it because they looked at the component failure rates and said, wow, we've got rid of the engine, we've got rid of the gearbox, we've got rid of the fuel system. Actually, there's not a lot to go wrong in this car. Let's make it even more. Let's take away the uncertainty that people are worried about this new technology or the battery will go flat. The battery will run out its lifetime and it will cost a fortune to replace. That was the dogma that was being put out by the auto industry. Guess what, they just wanted the battery for seven years and said, well, what do you want? Well, do you know as well, we'll replace it. If you need it replaced, we'll replace it for a couple of hundred quid. Suddenly, everybody started to pardon the pun, but their gas was put at a bit of a peep. Subsequently, you can now see that industry too slowly trying to react to Tesla, saying, well, we can do it. We can do it too. Yet they can't quite do it. They can't quite adapt and adopt those technologies at the kind of pace of change that someone like Tesla or a company like Tesla can. This year Tesla released their Model 3 car. Again, the humour of Silicon Valley, they kind of had the Model S and then this big SUV giant car that they brought out is the Model X. So they decided that they were going to release the Model E to put in the middle of the two and Ford stopped them because they trademarked Model E some time ago. So Elon Musk just responded and said, well, we'll just call it the Model 3. Have you never text anybody before? So they've got this kind of really interesting corporate culture and everybody thought they were a car company. And then suddenly this year, everybody realised they're not a car company. They're actually an energy company. They've put these cars on the road that, in case of mine, has a talk technically for more than 85 kilowatt hour battery. It's massive. Absolutely massive. It could probably run my house, which is not a particularly eco-friendly house. I could run it for about a week on the power that's in my car. So actually if you think about that, I'm holding all the power for my car that I might have charged up when I was on the road in my garage when I don't need the car. Actually I could borrow the power from that. I could sell it back to the grid. Companies like Ebert Roller are now starting to take that seriously and realise that distributed power networks are not necessarily nuclear or renewable. Start to make far more sense when you've got some place to store the energy. Well, in your garage is a pretty decent place to do it. Then they've released batteries for the home. Then they've announced, and if you go and look at this online, it's absolutely beautiful. Strange thing to say about a roof, but they've released solar roofs. They've released tiles that look like slate. They've released tiles that look like terracotta, classic Californian and Mediterranean roof style, a Provensal roof style, a whole lot. Pretty convincing and every single tile generates electricity. And they reckon they've done the maths. They think that the cost of putting that in versus a traditional roof will quite quickly cross over. So it will become the norm. Everyone will have a solar roof, not crazy stupid looking panels that nobody wants to see, just a normal roof. So I've picked on one company very quickly, but one of the things I haven't said about that company is that they just push ahead and release technology in a way that no one else does. So they suddenly made their cars autonomous. People said it was a decade away from that and said, oh, by the way, we're doing it next week and they'll laugh at it. He can't do it next week. They can say, no, we have. And they've now released it so you can buy a Tesla today and it will autonomously drive you from, let's say, Edinburgh to Dundee on the motorway. They've not quite got through regulation yet to do door to door, but they've shown it. Again, if you go online, you'll see a Tesla drive, press the button. It takes itself out in somebody's garage, opens the garage, drives out, picks the person up, takes them to work, drops them off at the door at work and then goes and hunts for a parking space and parks. They're probably less than a year away from being capable of, rather than going away and parking, going away and picking up paying passengers around town and generating some cash for you while you're sitting in meetings. Now that technology, which won't only be unique to Tesla or is definitely not, will mean, and let's just jump to it, in 2030 driving will be a leisure pursuit. Driving will not be something you have to do because you need to get somewhere. Driving will not be a job. Driving will be a leisure pursuit. Think about that for a second. And this is where it gets into this whole point of we're living through this pace of change that's faster than any of us have ever lived through before. Pretty tough to comprehend. And actually it's the slowest it will ever be again. The pace of change, the rate of change is increasing pretty much exponentially year on year. And that will mean that 2030, you know, there will be no driving jobs. There's the flip side of this coin. What do we do with the workforce and the talent base, which actually over the past five years or so, because of the rise of home delivery and things like Amazon, we're employing far more people in driving jobs than we were 10 years ago. So we're creating a real kind of tidal wave of economic challenge that's going to hit us pretty hard. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is a small stepping stone towards a bigger endgame. It will probably be a bit beyond 2030, but by 2030 you'll see this out there. Right now, with what you would class as being designed with full federal aviation authority specifications, so a vehicle which can fly and from point to point still has enough redundancy and range to fiddle about if there's a problem and give you an extra half an hour of range. So the same as any commercial airliner, they're starting to build autonomous passenger carrying drones, electrically powered, probably carry about four people, about 100, 150 miles. When those are deliverable, rural life changes completely. These things will not cost a lot of money to operate. They'll operate on a kind of Uber model, you'll call for one and it'll come and pick you up and take you where you want to go. Infrastructure suddenly doesn't mean the same thing. We've just spent billions on the New Fourth Crossing. 2030 years time, we won't really need it anymore. It will come at such a pace that we will find it difficult to comprehend today, but it'll come. My last piece on Elon Musk, before I say a couple of other pieces around the technological future, is that Tesla would be pretty impressive for anybody to put on their CV and say that's what I've done. Elon's not that kind of guy. He's also the chairman of SpaceX, which has effectively turned the space programme in the US globally, actually, on its head. He delivers satellites into space cheaper and more effectively than anyone else can do. They laughed at me a year ago when he said he could land part of his booster sections of his rocket on a moving platform on a ship in the Pacific. They laughed even more loudly when he failed three times and it fell into the ocean and blew in its smithereens. He didn't laugh the fourth time when it landed perfectly or the fifth time or otherwise. He kind of went, yeah, I was expecting it. Software takes a little bit of time to tweak. Dogma would be, you would sit in a lab and you would work this out and you would test it and you would test it because you couldn't possibly fail because your space programme would be shut down. His dogma is, make it cheap enough that I don't care if it fails a few times because eventually we'll get it to work. That's the new way. The new way is fail. Fail fast, get on with it and work out the solution. And if anybody has a problem with failure, they need to go somewhere else because we're going to fail as long as we fail in a controlled environment that means humans don't get hurt, that means we don't go bust. We expect to fail and that's how we progress really quickly. And you'd think he'd stop there saying, hey, SpaceX is going to launch more satellites. We're going to take people on Mars. We're going to do it. It's a pretty big vision. No, no, he hasn't stopped there. He's then said, listen, more short range transport. It's crazy. Why aren't we building tunnels that are vacuumed and we can send effectively trains in those tunnels faster than the speed of sound and cut London to Edinburgh, HS2, forget it. We can do this in like 15 minutes. Why can't we do that? And the answer is, well, you could do it if you could invent the technology. Oh, OK. Let me take a bunch of folk out of SpaceX. They're pretty smart. Mining industry, give me the best machine you've got at tunnel boring. And they laughed at them and they said, well, we'll sell you this. It will cost you whatever it is, 20, 30, 40 million dollars. What are you going to do with it? He said, I know it's rubbish. It's the best you've been able to do in 100 years. But we're going to give it to the guys at SpaceX and they're going to reinvent a tunneling machine that will work 100 times more cheaply, 100 times more quickly than yours can and we're going to develop one of these hyperloop things on it. I think you'll have it done by 2030. I think they'll be open and they'll start connecting cities in a way that we can't possibly imagine today. So those things, and I've not gone into artificial intelligence, I've not gone into machine learning, but these kind of ultra disruptive technologies of which there are several on their way are an existential challenge for any society. The way we live today, the way we work today, the way we play, the way we interact with each other will look entirely different to us, unrecognisably so inside 20 years. The smartphones you've all got in your pocket will be gone inside 10 years. They'll be replaced by augmented reality displays, which mean you have a far more private browsing and laptops gone, you'll see what you want to see at any particular time. You'll have wearable technology that's unobtrusive and doesn't make you look like an idiot, which is a key point. If anybody remembers Google's experiment with Google Glass, they did coin the phrase glass holes for people who wore them. So the industry understands us to get past that, make this an acceptable part of normal life. It will do it and it will become so. Those technological changes will completely transform the way we're educated, the way we communicate, the way we interact on a daily basis. When communication virtually is a proper facsimile of communication physically, all sorts of barriers disappear and disappear almost overnight. In contemplating that, what do we do? Well, I think that's why I think whether it be national interests in Europe, in Scotland, or otherwise become way less relevant in dealing with this. And it does feel a bit like moving the deck chairs on the Titanic. We really need to deal with Iceberg. Iceberg is this technological tidal wave that's being pushed out in front of it. It's coming as fast as we can possibly imagine, yet faster because that exponential thing means the tidal wave that's getting pushed is getting 10 times bigger every year, the things that are going to overcome us now. The only way we can deal with that is to look at how we develop our talent base. All these people that are driving today, we help them become really positive contributors to adopting and adapting that technology and making it work. Well, frankly it's education and it only is education. The only thing we can do is overfund education and I don't believe we are. I believe we are who've got some fantastic ideas. I will talk all night about why I think Curriculum for Excellence is a fantastic idea. It's just horrifically implemented. You can't do systemic change on a national scale like that and not put the budget in place to deliver it. Well, you can and you get what we've got at the moment, which is challenge around qualifications, challenge around how the teacher and profession can possibly deliver the experience that this promises. The two things don't quite match up. Technology will help us in that. We do need to stand back and say, okay, let's not educate people in the way that we've always done it. Let's be quite radical because we need participation from every single citizen in this country if we're going to make it work. It will need open-mindedness. It will need an approach to risk that we've never seen really in certainly in our lifetimes. Actually, the prize is if we do that, we'll be one of the nations that sits above the line and that's to me the only thing we have to worry about. There is a line with which everyone will be measured and are you preparing yourself for what's to come? And the median line is, yeah, I'm kind of doing it and I'm not really doing it particularly well. I'm sort of in the middle. Right now, I think we're below the line. If we can get ourselves above the line, we'll start to punch above our weight. We'll start to punch above the median globally. And if we become entrepreneurial in that and that's the whole entrepreneurial of Scotland ethos, if every single one of us acts entrepreneurially, we'll continue to rise and hit the top of that tide when it hits us with talent that can take advantage of it. And behind that educational focus really comes three things for me. Technical excellence is almost a given and you almost have to expect that every one of us has to become not a computer programme, not a software engineer, but technically excellent at adapting to what's coming, all the changes that are over the top. And actually the two places I think Scotland can excel are the next two important features that we need, which are creativity and innovation. So all that really matters, being able to recite facts doesn't really matter because we can go to Google for facts most of the time. Being able to excel in an exam situation doesn't really matter. What matters is the ability to use your imagination, the best of what we have in this country to imagine a future and how you can apply these amazing ideas because machines can't do that. Even with the best machine learning and artificial intelligence do not display the kind of creativity and innovation that the human brain can, that our best universities can, that our best artists can, that our best school children can, politicians are the best people in every walk of life can and that's what we've got to aspire to. And if we reward that, if we build on that, if we invest in that, then we'll adapt to it and we'll become one of the above the line countries. We'll do phenomenally well. If we don't, everybody below the line drowns, in my view. Everyone below the line. They inhabit countries that people might want to visit to spend a bit of money, but nobody wants to visit to make money. And it's not all about a capitalist dream, believe me. I think there are all sorts of ways that our society will develop beyond that. But ultimately, let's not call it money, let's call it wealth in the broadest sense. We need to be a country that generates wealth, not a country that people come to expend a little bit of it, because then we're feeding off the leaveings from the big countries tables or the creative and innovative countries tables, and that's not good enough for us. We need to be one of those countries that's out there creating this new brave world. And if we get it right by 2030, I can see a huge fabulous future for Scotland. If we don't, and it's this existential, there'll be a long queue of people out the door. And some of that, to finish off, does go back to the short-term tactical. We clearly need to come out of this current period of turbulence with an enlightened society that can be dynamic and diverse in the people that we have here. The demographic time bomb that we saw in Scotland kind of reversed in the past decade or so because of enlightened migration and great talent flocking to Scotland to make things work. If we see the end of that, I have a challenge understanding how we get above the line. So we can't, we simply can't. We need to work out how to keep that diversity, keep that dynamism and inject even more creativity and innovation into this country. We do that all as well. The bleak part is we don't, not many of us will be around to see it. Thank you.