 Last night the tournament winning scores on Fandle were in the 300s and that can be frustrating because it means you've got to have Basically the nuts to take down tournament just true always, but was more true last night I don't think we'll have that issue for today because it is pretty tough to find a really good offense is on tonight's slate for MLB DFS just a five game slate and a lot of the offenses here are facing pretty good pitchers So one of our top three stacks against the pitcher I really like but I think we have to go that way for DFS. So Slim on offense good pitching. Let's dive on in and get you set for tonight's slate Welcome on into the solo shop. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Here to break down Thursday's five game main slate with lock set for 7 0 5 p.m Eastern for two day and with just five games There is no weather to know for today some spots a little bit warmer than typical So take note of that for sure because could get a boost for offense there specifically. We're looking In Washington for the Phillies Nationals That's a bit warm there and then in Detroit for the Rangers and Tigers both those spots good spots for hitting and that's Fortuitous because our top our two Process-based stacks are both in those two games. That should be a sigh of relief for tonight We'll break down the pitching preview and more in just one second But first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We of course have this MLB DFS podcast every weekday, but also Austin Swain breaks down UFC every Friday. 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This is a limited time offer So be sure to deposit now and play for free and our fendal.com or download the fendal fantasy app today Eligibility restrictions apply go to fendal.com or download the fendal app for more details pitching preview for this Thursday main Slade Zach Wheeler is the highest salary picture on fendal checking in at $10,600 all the marketing Paris at 10-5 we Severino is 10-4 Shohei Otani is pitching tonight He is 10-2 we got George Kirby at 94 with Tyler McGill at 92 And Aaron Ashby is the only other guy at $8,000 or higher. So pitching not bad given It's a five games late only ten pitchers. We have one two three four five six seven of them eight thousand higher That's not too bad. It will we will We're reaping now. We will so later on with the stacking discussion pitching is pretty good I'm gonna put Luis Severino at the top of my pitching pool for tonight He is at home against the rays and it's kind of a sneaky good spot The ray is active roster has a 97 WRC plus against righties so far this year They're not putting the ball in the air too much That's a big thing for Severino because he's been leaning more on his slider across his past six starts It's a good pitch, but it does let up a lot of impactful contact, which is true of most sliders He has a 44% fly ball rate in this time with a 43% our hit rates But the rays are a lower loft team That's a plus for Severino and the rays will strike out They have a 25% strikeout rate against righties this year That is the second highest mark on the slate Severino is generating plenty of those by himself with a 34% strikeout rate across his past six starts That leads to a 2.5 eighth skill interactive. You are a Despite all the fly balls. That's helped Severino post a 2.19 ERA in this time He did face the rays back on May 29th. So there is some familiarity here But he got eight strikeouts and six and a third innings in that game We've seen Severino hit double digit strikeouts and both his starts since then as well. So he's a really good pitcher He's at home. He's in a matchup that suits his downsides. Well, I think we should put Severino number one Even on a pretty good slate for pitching for tonight The second spot is between Zach Wheeler and Shohei Otani and I could easily go either way I'm going to give Wheeler a slight edge here But it is pretty close. Wheeler is on the road against the nationals Otani is on the road against the Mariners. So both in the road and neither team strike that strikes out much So it kind of comes down to your preference between the two pitchers I like Wheeler due to the bad at ball data. He's been cutting back on a sinker across his past six starts and That's pushed his strikeout rate up to 34% now The concern would be fewer sinkers more strikeouts Maybe he's not Going to do as good of a job with contact suppression as he has done in the past Hasn't happened. He has a 35 hard hit rate in this time with a 27 fly ball rates Otani is at 37 and 41 respectively That helps Wheeler have a 2.20 skill interactive era, which is the best number on this slate I've got Wheeler projected for eight strikeouts, which is second behind Severino Otani ranks third at 7.4. So if you have a strong lean toward otani, I would say go with it I just like Wheeler more myself and will rank him second Behind Severino. So to me it's Severino one Wheeler two Otani three will talk more about him and things to watch Among the values, I think Aaron Ashby is the Only viable guy right now given pitch counts and stuff like that and even Ashby has his flaws But I still like him enough to use him here. He's facing the Mets That is the key point of detraction for me because the Mets have just a 21 strikeout rate against lefties with a 113 WRC plus I don't want to target guys for a face in them But Ashby is pretty solid He is fully stretched out now and I've got him projected at 100 pitches for tonight And he's still maintained the good rate stats that he had when he was in more of a hybrid type role In the past four starts Ashby has a 28 strikeout rates He's let up just a 17 fly ball rate. That is some framer of all this type stuff with a 2.4 5.4 ERA so really good numbers for Ashby He did struggle his last time out He let up six earned runs to the nationals He let up four the start before that So he's a value play for a reason But he does have single game upside He had 12 strikeouts in one of the games nine in another and That's despite having three of his four starts on the road. He's on the road against night, but You know, I think that's encouraging that he's had success there in the past I would like to not use Ashby in this spot because again, I don't I think the Mets are Not an ideal offensive target, but There's enough good in Ashby's profile that you'll find about it. It's a small slate. He's $8200 I think he checks the main boxes here and makes him a fine up He's below otani because I think that otani has a more clear path to a ceiling game But I wouldn't be shocked if I went up with Ashby in my player pool in part because I think I had to be hyper concentrated with my stacks. Let's talk about that now typically When I'm building out multi entry stuff, I will have a tight core picture, you know, two three Sometimes four guys, but it's mainly two or three and then differentiate a bit more in the stacks tonight I might go with the four pitchers and potentially just have more focus stacks I think the top two stacks for me Are in a tier of their own those two stacks are the rangers and the fillies let's talk about them now The rangers are not a team I've stacked often this year, but I will be doing it tonight I think that they are the top option for this slate. They're facing Bo brisky and brisky's been a bit better than I expected him to be when he first got called up He has a 4.34 era across nine starts, which is actually not too bad But his peripherals say that could come up. Namely his expected era at baseball savante is 6.42 Which is more more than two runs higher than his actual number so far That number is high mostly due to the bad at ball issues to brisky He's letting up a 44 percent hard hit rates with a 43 percent fly ball rate So he's getting tagged hard and that's on a lot of balls in play He has a 15 percent strikeout rate with a seven percent walk rate Some guys do outperform their peripherals in a large sample and that could be brisky But typically those guys who outperform peripherals do so via suppressing hard contact and brisky Does the opposite of that? So I'm not willing to buy into the results yet I'm still putting more weight into the peripherals and those peripherals say We should stack against him and I will do that with the rangers for tonight We often talk about building blocks within stacks, you know, the guy you focus on jazz chism for the marlins is the Primary obvious one. I you know from stacking the marlins. He'll be in pretty much every lineup I think that out of these Garcia is that guy for the rangers even Against a righty. He is the power with a 218 iso against righties He also has seven steals moderate strikeout rates. So in terms of prioritization, you do a seeker You've got semi in they're hitting the ball better recently And they have lower salaries, but I still think Garcia has to be the number one guy So I believe Garcia probably going to be in most of my ranger stacks if I can afford to get there Which I think I can given, you know, semi ends pretty low salary the same thing for seeker I could probably make that work. So if you need a building block for your stack I would say that guy for the rangers Will be at least Garcia Patrick Corbin start for the nationals for today and the velocity for Corbin has been on the rise recently and that's a good thing in theory But it still hasn't helped his results, which makes the Phillies the obvious number two stack for Corbin His velocity has been up for his past six starts and he's led up three plus earned runs in all of those So despite the increased velo still letting up a lot of runs his era 7.22 skill interactive era is 4.32 with a 15 strikeout rate The one thing Corbin has done well is increase his ground ball rate. That's a plus But he's still letting up a 44% our hit rate So even if he's putting it on the ground It's getting smoked and getting through The Phillies have their issues, but offense not one of them right now They have a 123 WRC plus against lefties with a 198 iso Both those are the best marks on the slate. So I think we should load up on them here Given the match up given the fact that they are pretty good against lefties The weather is good too Phillies to me definitively to and potentially one I'd go out of the way on this one But I think the one guy we should give the biggest boost to against the lefty for the Phillies is Alec Bohm He has a 238 iso against lefties this year He has a 190 iso against lefties for his career His iso against righties this year is 046. That is a massive gap even for You know lefties, you don't always see that big of a gap in their iso between righties and lefties But boom massive massive boost based on Having the between advantage I don't use boom against righties. I will happily use them here against the lefty I would also mention that you know despite being lefties college worker brice harper both have Very good numbers against lefties. So bump up boom a lot and He'll probably be the the key building block in the Phillies stacks for today Just to give me more access to the high upside righties on that team And lefties on that team as well for the third stack I don't know man It's tough because I think I feel great about those two and I want to build around those top two stacks And I will build around those two top two stacks, but I can't have a four by four stack in every single line If I'll need to differentiate somewhere, especially if I'm going wheeler. I can't go four by four there so I got to find a third team to go to and I think that team is going to be angels They're facing george kirby and this is really just a play to try to maximize the number of hard hit balls because I like kirby I think he's done some really nice things so far I've used him as a pitcher and the results reflect what he's doing a 3.65 era But a couple things he's doing are conducive to stacking. The first one is that kirby lets up a lot of balls in play He's around 75 percent through seven starts 75 percent of his played appearances result in a ball in play 44 percent of those are hard hits and 42 percent are in the air That leaves him open to some pretty serious danger And I would expect a dinger problem to crop up here at times and we have seen that We've seen him let up homers two homers multiple home runs in three out of seven starts One of those was his most recent start, which was at home against boston The angels have a weird, you know air around them now given the losing streak the managerial change But like they're still solid often so 114 wrc plus against righties a 41 fly ball rate a 183 iso They will strike out so kirby could do well here again. He's a good pitcher, but I like their upside enough I should say I like it enough So I'll rank the angels third here But they are several tiers behind the top two options for me So to me it's it's a tier thing where rangers filly is top tier There's nothing in tier two angels in tier three for me Kirby weirdly has a much lower strikeout rate against righties and lefties It is 17 percent for righties 27 percent against lefties Which isn't a terrible thing because we can't even show. Hey, oh tiny. It's a hitter tonight anyway So, you know, it's whatever like that's fine. You could take out lefties But I do think it boosts the appeal and taylor ward He hasn't looked great in this first two games back. He You know as one hard hit ball across a play at a period of setting three strikeouts That's not ideal, but it's a small sample. Maybe you have bounces back here tonight I'd also be in on max stasi if he starts anthony randone I would downgrade due to the wrist injury, but if he plays But Could still be there as well. So the the right-handed angels get a boost here Which means that mike trout guy might be okay for tonight Things to watch let's stick with the angels and talk about shohei otani I would rank him above erin ashby despite the salary difference between them I just can't quite put otani above wheeler due to the reasons mentioned before but Otani's upside is absurd The matchup for him. I think is better than ashby's as well. So otani ranks third for me I think you kind of need exposure every time he pitches just because he can have a Seven shutout inning 12 strikeout game So if he's out there, I'm going to use him just because he can he can win you a slate But I would put in third behind wheeler and a seven reno But above ashby for tonight wouldn't be shocked if I get to use all four Though due to the nature of the stacking I'm not going to get to martin pares today despite the great match up I'm not skeptical to what he's done. I think that you look at like the Expected eray stuff like that like yeah, he's had a couple rough starts recently But I think it's probably pretty legit So I'm not You know, I'm not skeptical of him because of him I'm just skeptical of the upside in terms of dfs He hasn't had more than seven strikeouts yet this year Which basically means if you use pares You're betting on one of wheeler severino otani or ashby to come up short in the strikeout department and At least one of them. I think we'll have a good night So you need a lot of guys to fail for pares to be number one guy He could because the matchup is so sweet, but I just want more upside I think those guys give it to me there So it's not a him thing like in terms of like I think he'll regress in terms of the eray and stuff It's more so I just want more strikeout upside The yankees are in place tonight for stacking The rays are going to the bullpen game. They'll have jaylin beak start and I've got him projected for around 40 pitches so Beaks has been good so far this year, but it's a lot of exposure to middle relievers who may be going longer than they typically do That's a good thing for stacking. So the yankees forced me in stacks I feel better about the angels than I do about them But the yankees are fine. They're fourth if you want to get some one offs there Not opposed to that Let's finish up here with our dinger calls for today The boring one was alluded to previously that mike trout guy facing a righty That's a hard contact and doesn't get a lot of strikeouts against righties Probably a good situation to go with mike trout. So mike trout will be the dinger call for tonight The boring one that is 338 iso against righties. They 59 fly ball rates. He's dumb The fun one is a leg bone facing a lefty gets better bad at ball numbers hits more power in those situations Facing Corbin is having a lot of hard contact issues right now a lot of balls in play So home run calls for this thursday slate mike trout and alex bone That is all that we have here for today on the solo shot once again Quick reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review if you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast. Good luck tonight I think that again the stacking is going to be pretty interesting So hopefully find hitters who got some upside to hopefully add some fun Hopefully you win some money We'll talk to you once again on friday to break down another slate of mlb dfs This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network