 Okay, I'm gonna clean up the lens, I'm gonna get started. All right, what's up everyone? Today's Monday, today's YouTube Live Day. So I wanna kinda talk about, as the title of the video says, about black swans, sector plays, sympathy plays, all this stuff because that's actually my best setup, right? So we've been in a market right now, guys. As I'm recording this, it's on May 23rd, 2022. Market has changed, man. Market is not easy right now. What was working the last couple of years is not working anymore. You must adapt to the new market cycle that is happening or you will be left in the dust. And we almost took for granted how easy training was the last couple of years. It was very, there was a lot of dumb money, uneducated money entering the market. So it was very easy to make money, right? And now that the market has changed, it's become significantly more difficult to make money. Now, it doesn't mean it's impossible to make money. We're still making money every single day but it's not as fluid as it once used to be. So we've been in a market cycle now where large cap stocks are selling off and small cap stocks are not moving. Small cap stocks, the stocks that we trade, stocks between a dollar and $10, they move basically based on hype and catalyst. So when the overall markets are tanking, when there's not much speculation, money coming into the market, the stocks that we trade, there's not as an abundance of them anymore. You know, last year or two years ago, we would get five, 10, 15, 20 stocks moving in a day. Now we're lucky if we're even getting one or two, right? So it just means that you have to be a little bit more selective. So today this morning, I woke up and I saw SIGA. So SIGA was a stock that was running on Thursday that trapped on Friday. And today gapped up pretty big, right? Gapped up from like $12 to like $17. And this stock is moving on the monkeypox, whatever the hell is going on, right? So it's been a very long time since we had a sector play, sympathy play or an overall short squeeze. The last time we had some sort of sector play was the oil stocks. If you remember INDO, IMPP and HUSSA, those are the last time we had a crazy sector run. And obviously they went crazy. INDO went from like five to 70, right? So those are the type of stocks, those are the type of setups that I make the most money on. Excuse me. I make the most money on those stocks because that fits my personality. That fits the type of trading that I like. That's just basically the type of stuff that I've refined and I've gotten really good at. BOW is a very good channel trader. If there's a channel, he makes money from the channel. Whereas me, I like to make money on these big overall sector sympathy type things. So that's just what I'm good at, right? I'm good at those plays, BOW's good at those plays and together we help each other improve, right? And that's how I might see started. So anyway, the point is guys these stocks are the stocks that I like to make the most money on. So I get very excited, right? I get very excited when we see an opportunity to be able to make money on these stocks. And I have a process, right? I have a process for when I see these stocks moving. My process includes not over-trading pre-market so that I am not exhausted by the open. So what I like to do is when I see a big opportunity coming up or a big potential trade, I go outside and I go for a walk. I go outside for a walk so that I'm not in front of the screens so that I mentally prepare while I'm walking for like 20, 30 minutes. And then when I come back to the screens, that's when I see that, hey, there might be an opportunity. So something like SIGA that was moving pretty aggressively pre-market up today. I thought to myself, you know what? It's been a very long time since we had a sector play. It's been a very long time since we had a hot, crazy multi-day runner. So why don't I try long on this stock? And that's totally fine. So basically I told myself, all right, I'm gonna go long on the dip around 15, 20. And if it breaks the 14, 90 support, I'm gonna get out. That's it. So that's exactly what I did. I went long at 15, 20. Stock broke support. I got out at 14, 90. And the stock tanked all the way down to $11. So I lost $1,000. Worst case scenario, if that was gonna, if that, if I didn't do that, I probably lost 10, $15,000, right? So I made a plan, I followed it. Turns out that I was wrong. That's fine. It happens in trading. The thing that I didn't expect, guys, the thing that I didn't expect on these stocks was how weak they were gonna be. So I guess I have to be able to adapt a little bit better, right? Because I told myself, you know what? If this stock, if this hot stock, like SIGA, is just gonna tank out of the open, I can't just sit there and wait. You know what I'm saying? Oftentimes in the past, guys, what happened is you chase a stock, you short into weakness, it ends up rebounding and teleporting and you end up getting stuck. So I've been stuck so many times chasing weakness on the stock that I didn't do it. So I didn't even make a plan for it. So today SIGA was a sector sympathy, sector run type play, and it just tanked. It's very rare that a stock like that, that's extremely easy to borrow. That's a multi-day runner, just freaking tanks, right? So it's very impossible to predict. In the stock market, we play a game based on probability, right? So in the stock market, our probability is based on the patterns that we see. So if there is a pattern that every single time a stock is a first red day, right? That's a strategy, it's a pattern, it's a setup. And you know that there's a 95% chance that if a stock goes red, it's gonna end up tanking. Well, you know that based on probability, the last 55 times that a stock went red on a first red day setup, it tanked. Maybe out of that sample size of 55, maybe five of those didn't end up working out and that's 10% of it not working out, right? So on something like today where SIGA just tanked and tanked and tanked and tanked and tanked and tanked, that was the 10% probability that the stock didn't follow the strategy, the stock didn't follow the setup, the stock didn't do what I thought it did. So that doesn't mean that I'm gonna go change my strategy. It doesn't mean that I'm gonna go change my process. It doesn't mean that I did something wrong. Trading is not a 100% probability game. If 90% of the time we can make money, that's pretty fucking good odds. The other 10%, what are we gonna do, right? So on something like SIGA today, where it opened up at like 15 and tanked all the way to 11, I'm not just gonna short weakness, short weakness, short weakness because what's gonna happen is 90% of the time is gonna bounce off that weakness, right? So why am I trying to deviate? Why am I gonna try to do something different when that's not really what works? What I chalk today up to is the 10% of the time the trade didn't work. What ends up happening is now, after today, what inexperienced traders are gonna do is they're gonna short the weakness, they're gonna short the lows on fucking the next stock they see. They're gonna say, oh shit, SIGA tanked and I missed it, all I had to do was short weakness and I would be able to nail it. What's gonna end up happening is the next nine times that you do that, the stock is gonna reverse. So just because the stock didn't follow the strategy, just because the stock did the abnormal, the 10% of the probability that it doesn't work, that doesn't mean that the strategy, the setup needs to be changed, needs to be adapted, needs to be adjusted, right? So that's something to remember, guys, is in this market, in this market, I see a lot of people second-guessing themselves. In this market, I see a lot of people over-trading or overdoing it or whatever the hell it may be. And to me, this is not the time to change your strategy, right? Obviously some setups are not working as well as they used to. Obviously some things are different, but on something like SIGA, a multi-day runner that's easy to borrow, that tanks all fucking morning, 90% of the time that shit's gonna bounce, right? This is just a 10% of the time it didn't bounce. So what am I gonna do? Am I gonna attack it? Am I gonna deviate? Am I gonna change my strategy? Or am I gonna say, you know what? Chalk this one up to the 10% of the time it doesn't work. The next nine times that it happens is probably gonna work, right? So does that make sense, guys? So does that make sense? Now, before I get into all this other stuff, I wanna also be mentioning what is a sector play? I kinda got a little bit ahead of myself. What is a sympathy play? So a sector play, a sympathy play, a sector run is when a certain type of stock is getting a lot of media attention and ends up being fueled by hype rather than a catalyst or a PR. So for example, AMC and GameStop was a sector play. They were meme stocks. When we were having COVID, there was a lot of COVID stocks that were moving like crazy, right? When oil was going crazy, there's INDO, INPP. When all the body cam, security cam news was in the headlines with Ferguson, DGLY, ISN, there's all these crazy stocks, guys. There's always some sort of big media coverage type of stock that ends up pouring into our small cap market. And it just so happened that this most recent run was about monkeypox, right? And don't get me wrong, I don't know anything about monkeypox. I don't even know if it's real. I don't even know if it's propaganda, but what matters is the market took it seriously for a little bit and that's what we have to pay attention to. So I got really excited. I was like, damn, this is gonna probably go to 15, 20, 25, 30. And I was like, awesome. Like when that happens, that's gonna be a first red day setup. It's gonna be an awesome opportunity. And it ended up just tanking right out of the gate. So anyone that made money shorting today on SIGA, that's good, but ask yourself, were you just chasing weakness, chasing, chasing, chasing and building bad habits? Cause what's gonna happen is the next time a stock like this runs and you try to just attack weakness nonstop, you're gonna end up losing, right? So that was my lesson today. My lesson today was, you know what? This is the 10% of the time that the stock didn't work out of my favor. I chalk it up, I accept it, I move on, right? So that's kind of what happened today for me. I was really excited. I even tried along, right? I even tried along. I even tried to adapt and I even tried to adjust. I tried, I stopped out at $14.90, the stock's at $11.00. So I did pretty freaking good on my exit. But in terms of the overall market action, in terms of everything, it's just kind of disappointing that this stock just tanked. It's kind of disappointing that it didn't really give us an opportunity to short it. And you know what? Maybe tomorrow's a new day. Maybe there's a PR that's gonna come out. Who knows what's gonna happen. But tomorrow's a new day, guys. So I'm not trying not to get too discouraged because I want these stocks to run. People don't understand that we thrive in a bull market. We thrive in a bull market even when we're shorting because the stocks are so exaggerated to the upside. When a stock is so exaggerated to the upside, it's also exaggerated to the downside. So people don't understand, oh, you guys are making crazy money in a bear market. Sure, we're making money, but we thrive in a bull market because the stocks are so abnormal. It's so extreme, so extreme to the upside, which makes it extreme to the downside. So does that make sense, guys? So today, losing day for me lost like $1,000, whatever, it's scratch day, but what I did well is I didn't really get into trouble. What I did well is I didn't really get trapped. What I did well is I just chalked it up, right? So yeah, guys, disappointing action, sector plays, sympathy plays, sector runs are the biggest opportunities, in my opinion, in the stock market, and it just so happened that this sector run, this giant Mucky Pox move was a huge bullshit move, and that happens, it is what it is, and although the stock's just tanked, non-freaking stop, that doesn't mean that I'm gonna change my strategy, it doesn't mean that I'm gonna change my process, it doesn't mean that I'm gonna change anything, I'm just gonna chalk it up and accept it too. This is 10% of the time, it doesn't work, and that's okay, because that's trading, and nothing's 100%. So do you guys have any questions before we move on? Any questions, guys? This is your opportunity to get on here and ask me some questions. How do you deal with leaving money on the table? If you left money on the table, that means you made money, right? If you're getting upset about leaving money on the table, probably means that you're too greedy, so look at it through another lens of instead of feeling like you're greedy, be happy that you're freaking green, man, right? Do I ever short hard to borrow stocks? Yes, obviously, most of the stocks I short are hard to borrow. When you say you don't wanna chase weakness, are you implying only short on the pops once it goes green? Well, think of it as like a bouncing ball, right? Every time the bouncing ball bounces, the bounce is less potent, right? It's less potent, so for me, I don't wanna short on the way down mostly, right? The only time I short into extreme weakness is when I short a first red day, and this stock was so extremely deviated, right? Extremely deviated, I did not feel comfortable chasing this on weakness. I want a bounce to short into because what ends up happening is you always wanna short into resistance, and you always wanna cover support. If you short at support, you're gonna die. So I would rather miss it than short weakness and then get teleported up on SIGA. Can you explain where your lines were to short the pop? Obviously, guys, I was just waiting for some sort of VWAP pop, I was waiting for some sort of VWAP rejection, and it didn't really get there, so it didn't really happen. How to work on sizing up officially doubled my account today. So if you officially doubled your account today, congrats, wire out some money, put it into your bank account. How do you size up? You wait for your best setups only. So if you know that your best setup is a first red day, you only size in on a first red day. If your best setup is a first bounce setup, that's the only stock that you size in on. Oftentimes what ends up happening is people size in on every single stock, but every single stock does not have the same edge, so for example, something like SIGA. SIGA, first red day, I wanna use monster size, whereas something like VERU is not really a first red day, so I'm not gonna use the same size that I use. So only use maximum size, only size up on your best setups only. If you don't know what your best setup is, you gotta go back and track your trades and see which trades you make the most money on. When do you get your locates? First thing in the morning, or do you wait until you're ready to short? If a stock is extremely hard to borrow, I locate extremely early, but if a stock is not really hard to borrow, I locate a starter and then I just get more as I need it. If you're covering a few parts of your first cover, where would your first cover be? It would be as support. Always cover as support, guys. Don't set arbitrary numbers. So let's say for example, stock is at $5. I think the stock is gonna go to $2, so I'm gonna cover at two. That's not how it works. You don't make the plan. The market decides what's gonna happen. So if you see support at $4.50, cover as $4.50 because that's support. Your target does not matter to the market. I short at resistance and I cover at support. I short at resistance, I cover at support. I short at resistance, I cover at support. Do you only use VWAP candles and volume as indicators? Yep, keep it simple. When you say max size, but if you are on the front side, the max size is 30%, right? If a stock is above VWAP, yes, 30% of your max size. So the markets have changed, guys. The markets are definitely very difficult. I see a lot of people not really making much money in this market because they're refusing to adapt, but we're over here every single day coming on here. We're over here trying to educate you guys as much as we can every single day. You know, some days are amazing, some days are not, but truth be told, today was just a choppy day. Today was just an annoying day. I wish that there was more opportunity today, but we are in a bear market where 90% of traders are not making money right now, so, hey. I think I'm gonna wrap it up here, guys. I like to keep these videos short and sweet because if I make these long videos, no one ends up watching them, so if you have any questions that I didn't answer, feel free to leave a comment in the video, and I'm the guy that personally answers all these questions. If you are an MIC member and you have a question, feel free to direct message me, but, yeah, today's just an annoying day, man. That's all it is. Today's an annoying day. I'm not gonna change my strategy. I'm not gonna change my process. I'm not gonna change everything just because one stock didn't do what I thought I did. Trading is not 100%. Trading is pretty much 90% if you have the right strategy, and this is the 10% of the time. It just didn't work out. So, hopefully you guys learned something. I will see you guys during tomorrow, Bow's Instagram Live on instagram.com slash myinvestingclub, so.