 Hey everyone, this is Dan with another episode of my Moderna and BioNTech videos. In the last couple of days, the words started to go around that there is a new strain of COVID virus found in South Africa which is supposed to be more contagious than a Delta variant. The new strain has been named by the World Health Organization as the Omicron variant. Today, the stock price of Moderna shot up by 20% and the price of BioNTech went up by 14% on this news. Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq all went down by more than 2% each today. Travel stocks also dropped a lot. It's beginning to look like the start of the pandemic crash all over again. Is it time to load up on Moderna and BioNTech and sell all the other stocks? I believe the recovery of Moderna and BioNTech is justified, as I have predicted in the last few weeks. The drop in the rest of the market, however, might be overblown. I will explain why in the next few minutes. First of all, let's look at my price predictions from the last time I posted my fundamental analysis of Moderna and BioNTech, which was November 9, 2021. In that video, I predicted that Moderna would be at $270 a share and BioNTech at $300 a share by the end of January 2022. When I made the prediction, Moderna closed at $236 and BioNTech at $216. As of today, Moderna closed at $329, certainly moving in the right direction and it actually overshot my target, and BioNTech closed at $348, also overshot my target. Will I be posting new price targets? Of course I will, I will talk about that in the next few minutes. Let's look at the price movements of Moderna and BioNTech in the last few months. The candlestick chart is Moderna, the yellow line is BioNTech, the blue line here is QQQ and the purple line is SPY. As you can see during this period, Moderna went up by 87%, BioNTech went up by 70%, definitely very impressive and SPY and QQQ went up by about 17%. Definitely both Moderna and BioNTech outperformed the general market. You can see how much the stock prices of Moderna and BioNTech have been affected by developments with regard to COVID, COVID vaccine and any COVID treatments. For example, here in the beginning of October, when the news came out that Moderna developed a COVID treatment pill, Moderna and BioNTech certainly dropped a lot because of that news. And then when FDA approved BioNTech for people ages 5 to 11, we see a small pick up, but then after that the news came out that Pfizer also developed a COVID treatment pill and that's when Moderna really tanked here. BioNTech went down as well and then when the FDA approved the Moderna booster shot for people who are 18 years of age and older, we see a small pick up here in the Moderna price. And then as of today, when the news broke out about this new variant from South Africa, the prices of both Moderna and BioNTech shot up. I've been sharing some of my trades with my Twitter subscribers and I mentioned that I bought more BioNTech shares on November 5th and November 8th around this period of time and also some on November 15th when BioNTech was starting to recover. And certainly I've been seeing quite a bit of profit actually as of today, when I saw the price of both Moderna and BioNTech shooting up almost vertically, I sensed that there will be a short-term pullback and that's why I sold some of my BioNTech shares at 50% profit. At this point, I still hold some Moderna shares as well as BioNTech shares, which I'll hold for the long term because I'm bullish on the two companies. There's news about the new variant and because of this new news development, the US and European Union are restricting flights from several African countries, including South Africa and Botswana, Belgium, Israel and Hong Kong, because they also discovered people who contracted the virus, who traveled from South Africa to Belgium, Israel and Hong Kong. There's this scientist by the name of Fygo Ding, who has been tweeting in the last few days about this new variant and he's been saying that it's probably 500% more competitively infectious than the Delta variant. Although this has not been peer reviewed, this is certainly getting a lot of attention. For example, it was reported by Newsweek today, which quoted the tweet from Dr. Fygo Ding. This is the FA announcement on November 19th about the approval of the Moderna and BioNTech booster shots for people who are 18 years of age and older. I created this summary table showing the different stages of approval for the leading vaccine. If you look at the fights of BioNTech vaccine, the first two shots have been approved in the US for people five years of age and older, EU five years of age and older, booster shots approved in the US for people 18 years of age and older, EU also 18 years of age and older. Moderna, the first two shots in the US approved for people 18 years of age and older, EU 12 years and older, booster shot 18 years of age and older, and EU 18 and older. Whereas Johnson Johnson, which is a one shot vaccine, has been approved in the US for people 18 and older, EU 18 and older, and booster shot in the US 18 and older. I have not seen any approval in the EU for Johnson and Johnson booster shot yet, as for AstraZeneca, which has not been approved in the US. It's a two shot vaccine and it's been approved in the EU for people who are 18 and older, and I have not seen any news about booster shots for AstraZeneca. If you compare all these leading vaccines, the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine seems to be enjoying a little bit of advantage because the age coverage is broader for the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine than the other leading vaccines because it goes down all the way to people who are five years old, whereas the other vaccines only cover down to about 18 years of age or 12 years of age. If you like what you've seen so far, I'd like to encourage you to click the like, subscribe and notification button that will enable you to receive notification when I publish my next video. It'll also encourage me to create more videos like this in the future. Thank you very much. Let's continue. This is a CDC announcement on November 3rd, saying that people can mix and mash their booster shots. And then the news came out that this company, AcuGen, is seeking European and FDA approval for their COVID vaccine designed for people who are ages 2 to 18. And the AcuGen vaccine is supposed to be 93.4% effective. Interestingly, AcuGen is not seeking approval for adult use of the vaccine only for children. And then Novavax in the meanwhile secured approval from the Indonesian government. The Novavax vaccine is supposed to be 90% overall effective and 100% effective against severe illness. And that's pretty competitive performance figure compared to the vaccines from Moderna and BioNTech. That's why we'll be tracking Novavax very carefully in the near future. There have been quite a few COVID treatments announced. They have affected the stock prices of Moderna and BioNTech as well as we have seen in the charts that we showed a few minutes ago. For example, Pfizer's pill is supposed to be 90% effective against death or hospitalization and so far has not been approved anywhere yet, but they're actively seeking approval, of course. And we don't know the price yet. Merck, the treatment originally was announced to be 50%, but the most recent data showed that it's only 30%. So this is not any threat to Moderna and BioNTech. It's been selling for $700 per treatment as being approved only in the UK. Regeneron, their treatment is an injection, 71% effective. The treatment is about $1,250. It's being approved in the US, EU, and UK. Eli Lilly, their treatment, again, is administered by injection. It's supposed to be 87% effective. The price is about the same with Regeneron at about $1,250 per treatment and it's being approved in the US. Overall, it's nice, I believe, for humanity to have these COVID treatments, but I don't believe the treatments will be in direct competition with the Moderna vaccine or the COVID vaccine. If anything, the rich and developed nations, such as the US and the EU countries, will most likely use the COVID treatments as a second line of defense instead of using them as substitute for the COVID vaccines. In the meanwhile, Moderna has been experiencing a little headwind recently. That's why the price of Moderna dropped more than BioNTech and one of the reasons is because Moderna is supposedly causing younger males to have heart inflammation and medical terms are myocarditis and pericarditis. And because of this concern, several countries including Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, France, and Germany have advised against the use of the Moderna vaccine on younger males. In the meanwhile, Moderna has been defending their positions and defending their results rigorously. They cited data showing that the Moderna vaccine is more effective than the BioNTech vaccine against COVID. In the meanwhile, they do admit that the number of cases for heart inflammation is a little bit higher, 13.3 out of 100,000 cases for Moderna versus 2.7 cases out of 100,000 for Pfizer. But 13.3 out of 100,000 is really a very low ratio, especially from what I understand heart inflammation can be treated with regular protocols. Hopefully Moderna will overcome this problem, and then we'll see Moderna's price going up a lot faster in the near future. Let's look at the most recent daily COVID cases in a few key areas. First of all, the United States. As we can see that we have the second wave, which happened around July timeframe. And then after the rollout of the booster shots, it's finally reducing. But there's a little bit of a resurgence here. So that's concerning. That means we definitely will need to have a lot more booster shots. And then if you look at Germany, which is representative of the European Union, the picture doesn't look good. The new cases are shooting up. And now they are just rolling out a booster shot. And hopefully they'll get that under control. If you look at Israel, they roll out the booster shots a couple of months ahead of United States and the rest of the world. As you can see, they have been able to control the situation a lot better. I think that will be the pattern the rest of the developed nations will follow. And that's why I don't think the whole world is collapsing. And we're not confronting the same situation like back in February of 2020 at the start of the pandemic. We are at the much better shape now than back in 2020. And that's why I don't think the market crash is justified. However, we will continue to need more COVID vaccines, including, of course, the Moderna vaccine and the BioNTech vaccine. That's why I'm bullish on the two stops for the long term. If you look at South Africa, where the new Obicron strain comes from, so far, we don't see an explosion of new cases yet. And this chart is just downloaded today. Although we see a little bit of uptake here. And I believe this new virus strain will be manageable, especially with the rapid mRNA vaccine development process. And also the rigorous travel restrictions already imposed by the United States and the European countries, as well as the rest of the world. It is, I believe, a manageable situation that'll cause the sales of more vaccines or even newer vaccines later on specifically designed to counter the new variants. But I don't think it'll cause the entire world economy to crash. And that's why I believe the sell of today's overgrown. If you look at worldwide, yes, we do see another wave here that needs to be contained and controlled. And that's why the entire world will need more vaccine shots. If you look at the US market today, S&P went down by 2.27%. Dow Jones went on my 2.53%. NAS that went down by 2.23%. I believe that's overgrown because new variants can be controlled like what's being happening in Israel, including the Omicron variant, either with the existing booster shots and vaccines or with a new vaccine that will be developed by BioNTech and or Moderna. In the last video that I published, Moderna BioNTech explained why I believe the two stocks will recover. And of course, what happened today proved my points. So I don't want to go through every single bullet point, but the most important considerations are that the COVID pills are not really competition against the Moderna vaccine or the COVID vaccine. And also the rapid development process for the mRNA technology will be able to allow Moderna and BioNTech to develop any new vaccines to counter the Omicron variant as well as any other variants in the future. If you look at today's price changes for the various pharmaceutical companies involved in producing COVID vaccines or treatment, BioNTech certainly went up quite a bit, 14%. Eli Lilly, in spite of the COVID pill, went down 0.62%. Merck also went down by 3.79%. Moderna certainly went up very impressively, 20.57%. Novavax, with their vaccine being approved by Indonesia and probably assumed by other countries, went up by 8.95%, which is pretty impressive. Akogen went down 9%. That's not good for the company. Pfizer went up by 6%. Of course, Pfizer is marketing the vaccine in a joint venture with BioNTech. Regeneron went down a little bit by 0.75%. Looks like the market is favoring the vaccines and not so much the COVID treatment at this point. Let's look at the evaluation of the two companies. In my last video, I showed a detailed calculation of how I arrived at the target price of 270 for Moderna by the end of January and the target price of 300 by the end of November next year. In light of what developed in the last few days, I am going to increase the number of doses sold by Moderna from 1.1 billion doses to 1.5. With that, I arrived at the price range between $253 a share to $392 a share from 2021 to 2023. From that range, I decided to set a target of $370 a share by the end of February 2022 from Moderna. For BioNTech, in my November 9th video, I showed the calculations to arrive at $300 a share by the end of January 2022 and $400 a share by the end of November 2022. Based on what happened in the last few days, I'm adjusting my price target to $400 a share by the end of February 2022, which is about three months from now. It's still from this range, except I'm taking a more aggressive approach as far as doing my price target estimate for BioNTech. I'm comparing here the analyst's opinions from November 9th to today, November 26th. The price went up from $236 to $329. For Moderna, my target went from the short term target $270, long term target $300 to $370, which will be achieved by the end of February 2022. Yahoo Business maintained their ratings overall. TipRanks.com maintained their whole rating, same high target. Average target went down a little bit from $310 to $298. Low target is the same at $86. CN Money maintained its buy rating and also keeping the high, medium and low targets. Low is never near. Downgraded the fundamental rating a little bit from B to C, although the overall rating is still an A, which is a strong buy. For BioNTech, the price certainly went up from $226 to $348 and my target was short term $300, long term $400. Now I'm setting my target at $400 a share to be achieved by the end of February 2022, within three months. Yahoo Business maintained their whole rating. The high rating went down a little bit from $450 to $447. Average rating went down a little bit from $325 to $313. Low rating went up actually from $153 to $178. Not a lot of changes here. TipRanks.com maintained their moderate buy rating and revised their average target price down a little bit from $336 to $307 and also lowered their low target from $230 to $180. CN Money maintained their whole rating and lowered their high target from $441 to $427. Lowered the medium target from $339 to $310 and increased their low target from $151 to $174. Low is never near. Upgraded actually BioNTech from an overall B to A rating, definitely a strong buy and improved the quantitative rating from B to A. If you compare my target to the analyst's targets, my targets are pretty much between their medium or average target and high target. Let me recap my price forecast. My target price for Moderna is $370 and BioNTech at $400 by the end of February 2022, about 3 months from now. As of today, Moderna closed at $329.63 and BioNTech closed at $348, so both of them have quite a bit of room to move up. What are my strategies? As I've done in the last few months, I've been holding some Moderna and BioNTech shares for a long time because I'm bullish about the two companies and I've been swing trading the rest of the shares. As I have mentioned to my Twitter subscribers, I bought BioNTech shares on November 8th and November 15th and I sold some of the BioNTech shares today, November 26th, and realized a 50% gain. In general, I would sell when the price fails to get support from a critical support level or when it pulls back from a resistance level or when adverse news develops. And I'll buy when the price bounces up from a support level or when it breaks above a resistance level or when positive news develops. For example today, when the price pulls back from a resistance level from BioNTech, that's when I sell to lock in my profit. And I'll be mindful of the broad market as well as any news related to the two companies. I'll be updating my subscribers by way of Twitter messages. I'd like to remind you to subscribe to my Twitter account, which is DanMarketL, in addition to subscribing to my YouTube channel. For example, on November 15th, I tweeted that I bought more BioNTech shares and today I tweeted that the new variant fear might be overblown because of daily new cases in South Africa do not show a new wave of infection. And then later on today, I tweeted that my trailing stop code limit order was triggered and I sold a batch of BioNTech shares at 50% gain. So that was a pretty good day for me, fortunately. If you like what you've seen so far, I'd like to remind you again to click the like, subscribe and notification button. And as usual, I would very much appreciate your comments, questions, and suggestions. At this point, I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my stock trading strategies and analyses for educational and entertainment purposes only. If you want to buy or sell stocks, you should make your own decisions and you should definitely consult with your financial advisors before you do so. That's about wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile, I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments.