 Hey everyone, this is Mike Kramer of Mock Capital with a weekly check-in. It's Tuesday, May 23rd around 8 p.m. New York time So tomorrow we're gonna be getting the Fed minutes. So it should come around 2 p.m. Eastern This obviously will be for the Fed the main meeting This meeting obviously the Fed agreed to raise rates by 25 basis points There was also a change in the language of the statement. So I think what's important coming into these Fed minutes Or what is what was the language? Used in terms of how did they agree upon the change in the statement number one and number two, you know How many participants were kind of hesitant and how many participants were really strongly in favor of raising rates by 25 basis points now Since the the FOMC meeting there have been a number of Fed officials to come out to say that you know They're not done raising rates that there may be further rate hikes to come That it's gonna be and Powell himself even talked about how the it's gonna very much be data dependent and how that the Fed may not be done raising rates yet additionally, we've seen that Powell also kind of pushed back against market pricing of Fed rate cuts. He basically kind of said he's not gonna twist anyone's arm But our belief is that the SCP is going to be the path to put based on our projections of where inflation will be And you know really since that meeting You've seen the Fed fund futures for December, you know creep higher and they're at their highest levels now going back to March 10th was just around the time of SVB This was obviously the big decline when everyone started taking out, you know rate hikes out of the equation You can see we're slowly filling that back up And so again, you know, it's gonna be interesting to see what some of that dialogue was and it could even give us a Sense of what's gonna maybe come at the June meeting now Obviously, there's going to be a PC you report at the end of this week and then of course the first week of June There'll be a major report and then a May inflation report right before the June FOMC meeting So next couple of weeks There's gonna be a lot of data that could also kind of could override a lot of that those Fed minutes But again, it will could give us a little bit of insight in terms of what people were thinking about Now at least today the S&P 500 fell a little bit You know, obviously it broke out from here. There was a consolidation pattern here that had looked like a diamond pattern It was a really nice setup and unfortunately the the market at least for now. It's broken higher You know my experience with these things is not uncommon sometimes for these Patterns to break higher and then come all the way back down and then actually continue through to the other side So I'm not really convinced that this this rally is for real Number one we stalled out at that 4200 level Which was the level we were talking about being the call wall and that's still the call wall I mean pretty much If we kind of focus on like where zero DTE has option trading has been that 4200 level has been pretty firm the last three days and You know as long as 4200 continues to be a from an option perspective the level where the options market really doesn't see The S&P 500 rising above it's going to be very hard for the S&P 500 to get above 4200 And so it's kind of still my belief that that's kind of the upper end of the range that we've been trapped in now for a number of weeks and Based on the data I've seen I don't really see any change yet to suggest that call wall is really going to start Meaningfully moving higher at least not at this point and so today we got a little bit of a pullback You can see that we basically came back right now with 38 percent retracement off of this low And then if you even if you go back to this point in time here just a sixty one point eight percent retracement So at this point the bears really haven't done a lot to convince anyone that there's this is nothing more than just a one-day wonder Again, ideally if you're a bear you want to see the market gap lower tomorrow and then just you know kind of fall right through this Support region in here between forty one a hundred and forty one fifty This was a very very strong level of support for a couple of days remember that was that whole week May 5th through May 6th May 16th So this is really the big region of support that may be just as equally as tough for the bears to break as it has Been for the bulls to break the forty two hundred level so again forty one fifty probably your support region Another support region around forty one hundred so there could be a little bit of an air pocket between forty one fifty and forty one hundred Likewise if if for some reason we're able to very quickly tomorrow Gap higher and start, you know taking out this high here in a reasonable manner There's a pretty good chance that you're gonna refill this gap and at least come right back up to this this trend line So right back to forty two hundred and retest it again So again, this is just sort of where we are right now on the S&P when we flip over to the NASDAQ The NASDAQ has gotten up to around Thirteen thousand nine hundred again here was our consolidation our rising wedge pattern again We talked about in the video how it's not unusual sometimes to break out and move up and then come back down and around So again, I still think you got to be cautious with this market up at these levels value from a valuation standpoint Certainly things are very stretch. So again with this one with this to you can see the NASDAQ if you go from here to here again Just a 23 percent retracement from here to here just about a 38 percent retracement and from here to here Just about a 50 percent retracement. So this just looks like an ordinary retracement after a very big rapid rally So again, if you're if you're looking for the NASDAQ to drop you really need to gap below these levels here There's a nice gap to fill down at thirteen thousand five six hundred and then you're talking about getting into these thirteen thousand four area Again take out this high very quickly thirteen thousand seven sixty And you could be off to trying to at least come back up to the upper end of this range at thirteen Eight hundred or so if we look at the the Dow Jones Dow has been very weak. You can see that the Dow is basically sitting on a major level of support right now This goes back to this point in time right here This thirty two thousand nine eighty five region gap below it There's multiple gaps that need to be filled all the way down to thirty two thousand three ninety five You hold this level you're probably going to see a retracement back up to thirty three five fifty or so There's really nothing special going on here with the Dow at this point at least on an intraday basis finally You don't want to keep an eye on the dollar index because the dollar index has been moving higher and the dollar index has been trying to break out Here's one of the the big levels here right here at this one one oh three fifty region You can see there was some support back in here. You can see we've tested it now a couple of times It's gonna be a big level for the dollar because you can obviously see there's the potential for a Reversal double top forming with a break below one oh two ninety Potentially signaling further declines. Otherwise you get a clean break over one oh three fifty and there's some room to run here back up to around one Oh five so that's all I have for you today Thanks a lot. Bye