 If you are a longtime listener to the solo shot, you know that I am not the biggest fan of taking value at picture. And the reasoning for that is usually value plays are value plays for a reason. The guys who have the upside we need at picture are going to be those in general who carry the highest salary. So to me, my mindset is always maximize points there and then try to scramble at hitter. That tends to work out pretty well. However, for today, I actually think that we have to look at the value plays for picture in DFS. And again, it's not something I do very often. I am always trying to maximize my upside at picture and to do so on spending up. Today, I want to stack Coors Field. I want to stack these Anastro's in order to do so, I've got to spend down at picture. So our goal for today on the solo shot is to find value pictures with upside we can turn to and who can give us upside and allow us to stack those teams. It's going to mean we're going to talk about three value pitchers during the pitching section. I'm going to be very nervous throughout the slate for tonight. We'll see how things break down. Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire here to break down this 14 a game main slate with lock set for 705 for tonight. There are a couple of weather notes here specifically to rain games, both in the state of New York. I'm there now it's raining. It's great. There's a chance of rain in New York for the Yankees and the Mets. Keep an eye on that one. It's looking a little dicey. Buffalo also looks risky for the Rays and the Blue Jays. That one could be in some trouble. So both those games in Buffalo and New York risky from a weather perspective for tonight because they could get rained out in Detroit. No rain, but there is wind blowing out to right at 11 miles per hour. That is a slight boost for hitters. So bump of Detroit to tiny bits. That is the Tigers and the White Sox and then be wary of the Yankees, Mets, Rays and Blue Jays in case that game does wind up getting rained out. Quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. No matter where you get your podcasts coming up later today. We have our NASCAR podcast previewing Road America. First on the Cup Series has been there since 1956. That'll be live on the Fandal YouTube page at 10 30 and up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed immediately after that. So make sure you go to Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, hit the subscribe button. And if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. Back on the YouTube page later on today for PM Eastern breaking down tonight's site for MLB DFS. So if you hate the value place I mentioned or just want to talk, I want to ask some questions, tune in then for PM Eastern, Fandal YouTube, Twitch, Facebook and Twitter to get your questions in then. Hey soccer fans, this season Fandal and Captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one-of-a-kind soccer contest. Introducing Captain Morgan's soccer pick-up, a weekly fantasy contest that's entirely free to play. The contest is simple. All you have to do is make quick predictions for Saturday games this soccer season. You'll earn points for each correct pick and compete for a chance to win up to $3,000 in prizes every single week. Head over to Fandal and enter the Captain Morgan's soccer pick-up today. Must be 21 plus to participate for more details as a Fandal.com or download the Fandal Fantasy app. Eligibility restrictions apply and don't forget to make your game day more delicious and sub in the Captain. If you're watching Euro 2020 and wants some thoughts in the betting side of things there, we had Alex Heinert on covering the spread yesterday to preview both the Friday and the Saturday games and talks in futures as well. Find that by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts. Pitching preview for this Friday main slate, Max Scherzer is the highest salaried pitcher he checks in at $11,000 on Fandal followed by Lance Lynn at $10,000. Lance McCullers is $9,600. Pablo Lopez facing the Braves is $95. We have Julio Rios, Taiwan Walker, Kyle Gibson, Alex Wood, Casey Meiss and Frankie Montas as the others at $8,000 are higher. That's a lot of names. Only one of those names will be in my pitching preview for today because again, we are trying to save. And I think there are a couple guys in the 7,000 range who great out really well. My favorite guy down there is someone whose name I've not discussed from a pitching perspective yet this year. I think I might have stacked against him once but that guy is Logan Gilbert. And the reason I stacked against him earlier on is that he did struggle a bit when he first came up. He led up four in runs in his first start led up three in a second and that was over just six and two thirds combined innings. Gilbert has settled down since then though and he's pitching really well right now. And I think if we're looking for salary savers, Logan Gilbert at $7,200 is someone we can turn to for today. Gilbert, one of the guys who has seen some decreased movement recently. Honestly, who hasn't? We've got a four-starred sample on Gilbert with that being true. And he has been great in that time. He has a 3.33 skill interactive ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and a 7% walk rate. You don't get a 30% strikeout rate down here that often. Gilbert is still letting up flyballs and that could lead to dinger problems going forward. So keep that in mind. There's a reason these guys are not $11,000 but Gilbert has upside. He hasn't really gotten to show that yet but I think it's in there. The maximum for strikeouts for Gilbert is seven and we need more than that for DFS but if you're looking for the building blocks of upside, those are there. Those building blocks are pitch count, pitch efficiency and strikeouts. Gilbert has gone 100 plus pitches twice in the past four starts. So the pitch count is there. One of the others got cut short due to the game being suspended. He had three strikeouts and two innings against the White Sox before that game got suspended. So that's interesting. In general, the competition has been pretty tough. Over his past six starts, here are the rankings of the teams in WRC Plus that Gilbert has faced. They are ranked eighth, eighth, sixth, 21st, seventh and 11th. It's a really tough stretch but Gilbert has still been good in that time. Tonight he faces the Rangers. They ranked 22nd in WRC Plus against Righties with a 25% strikeout rate. Gilbert is also at home for just the second time since he started June. He had seven strikeouts against the Rays the first time he was at home. So again, the true upside of Gilbert has not been high enough as of yet but I think he could flash a ceiling at some point in the future based on what he's done and I think it could be tonight given the mashup and it's a slate where we wanna save salary. So that works for me. If I have one lineup for tonight, Logan Gilbert will be the pitcher in that lineup because he allows me to go nuts a course field or stack the Astros and I wanna do both for today. So I am always hesitant with the value plays. I will be nervous for sure when Gilbert is out there but I think that he is very much worth it for today. So Logan Gilbert, salary considered and slate context considered my number one pitcher for tonight. Elsewhere, I think a couple of low-salary guys in Oakland have a chance to pop a good game tonight. Those guys are Eduardo Rodriguez and Frankie Montas. Both those offenses are good with Boston and Oakland but the park is one that very much favors pitchers especially this time of year. So I'm gonna rank those two guys second and third behind Gilbert. I will start with Montas so I will rank a hair ahead of Rodriguez. The edge goes to Montas because he's at home and that's big in general. We always do wanna favor pitchers at home but it's especially big for Montas. We talked about this two starts ago. He's facing the Rangers, looked like a good spot but he has massive home road splits and it made me very nervous about using him there and I think he led up like eight runs. At home, the striking rate for Montas is 27%. It drops to 19% on the road. Home road splits can be very flukey because it does not account for the teams you've played but even when Montas has faced good teams at home he has done very well. Didn't really hit his groove until around mid-May but since then he has had five home games and three of those home games have come against above average offenses versus righties. He had one against the Astros, the best team in baseball then he faced the Angels twice. Very good offense against righties even with no Mike Trout. In those three starts Montas allowed four earned runs across 17 and two thirds innings with 21 strikeouts. That is really solid. When that final Angels game even came with the movement on his four same fastball being down he still had eight strikeouts over seven innings. Some guys just pitch better at home than on the road. Zach Ranke used to be like the prototypical example. He was always that way. I talked about Aeronola in that way. Jose Barrios is that way as well. And I think that Montas is a guy who belongs in that bucket as someone who does have some pretty decent home road splits. He's facing the Red Sox here who are very good offense but they're not a low strikeout offense. They have a 24% strikeout rate against righties. And I think that gives us a window to use Montas tonight. He is $8,000. He is the one guy in the pitching preview. We did list from a salary perspective. So again, like Gilbert he lets you go as hard at Coorsfield as you want. So I am willing to go at Frankie Montas for tonight even though he has had some rough starts in the not terribly distant past. I still think he's worth it for today. Rodriguez on the other side of that game is probably going to be a tougher sell. I got a lot of questions on the Q&A two weeks ago about when he was facing Tampa Bay about stacking against him. And his ERA is like 580, so I get it. And the A's are very good against lefties. They have tons of fly ball, they got decent power and Rodriguez does have a fly ball problem. So there are issues here, believe me. There are very serious issues and there's a reason he's $74. But again, he has the building blocks for upside. So I do think that Rodriguez is interesting here, especially given that it will be a situation where the power may not matter as much because it is colder out in Oakland. Rodriguez is another guy with decreased movement recently. It's a four start sample and in those four starts Rodriguez has a 3.22 steel interactive ERA. That's very good with a 31% strikeout rate. That strikeout rate actually ranks third on the slate behind Max Scherzer and Lance Lynn in each pitcher's most relevant sample. Those four starts for Rodriguez came against Houston, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and the Yankees. And all those teams can be dangerous. The Rays, not a team I actually like against lefties, but Houston's obviously amazing. The Yankees have some big boppers, Atlanta has some big boppers. They can all be very dangerous. And Rodriguez had at least seven strikeouts in three of those starts. He did face the A's earlier this year that was back on May 12th, so not a recent thing we need to worry about. And he had nine strikeouts in six innings. That's upside. Rodriguez did let up four runs. That's kind of the rub here. Again, you don't get to a 583 ERA by getting great results and being perfect. You know, have a salary of $7400 by being perfect either, but the strikeouts are there. If Rodriguez gets lucky with some balls in play, he could wind up being the slate's top scorer. Just he needs to let, not let up some runs. I'm gonna rank him third behind Gilbert and Montas, but I am willing to use it. I do not blame you if you're not convinced. It's totally okay if you are not on board. I think this is probably stupid too, but like, hey, I'm gonna use him. This is what I'm seeing based on my process for tonight. It could suck, but they could all suck, eat Arby's. So I feel okay going with the value plays for tonight. It might not work, but hey, you know, I think that it's worth it given the stacking situation for today. Speaking of the stacking situation, let's move to that now. And as mentioned, I want access to both sides of course field for tonight and the asterisks. Those will be the top three stacks for today, which is why I can't say, hey, use Max Scherzer. Also stack course field and stack the asterisks. That's not gonna work. So let's go with the value plays of pitcher and talk about these high salaried stacks. My preferred side of this game in Coors is the Cardinals. So let's start there, then we'll run through the Rockies after that. The Cardinals are facing Chichi Gonzalez. He lets up a ton of balls in play, plenty of hard contact, and that's exactly what we want for stacking. Gonzalez has had a bit less movement on his pitches over his past six outings. It does include two relief stints in there, but even when you include the relief outings, the strike array for Gonzalez is 15%. He has a 7% walk rate, which leads to a ball in play about 79% of the time. He has allowed a 45% hard hit rate on those balls in play. Gonzalez is still getting some ground balls more than you would like, but it's not anything too terrible. His ERA is 7.71 and a lot of the damage has actually come on the road. I don't like he's like, lit it up at home. Again, he's not like a Monthos type guy where you bump him up at home, but his three core starts in that time that I've seen him allow three, four, and six earned runs. And there were some rough teams in there too. I think the Cardinals check that box. I don't think they're very good. They're getting healthier. They got Bader back, having O'Neill, and Carlson healthy helps a lot too. So they're better than they are. Their full season numbers would say, and I still view them not super favorably, but I think they're good for today. And they'll be my top rank stack for tonight. Speaking of Bader, they just got him back last night from the injured list. And he had a rib injury. I talk a lot about having like, quote unquote, red flag injuries for me. And that's not one, a rib injury. I think that's okay. Over the past, over the course of this year, Bader's results have been rough, but he does put the ball in the air. He can avoid strikeouts. He can also swipe some bags and he's $3,000. So I think that Bader is a key part of stacking Coors Field for tonight. He hit eighth last night. It's a bit lower than I was hoping he would hit, but I do still think that he's worth it for today just because it's access to Coors Field. He has a path outside, he's $3,000. So I will go back there for sure for today, despite the fact he is just coming off an injury. Other side of that game is the Rockies against Johan Oviedo. And he's been pretty weird since the sticky stuff discussion began. And the reason I say weird is because the velocity is actually down for Oviedo and it's not the movement. And the sticking this doesn't typically increase velocity. It's usually more about movement. So it's weird to see the velocity go down in this time. That could mean that Oviedo is changing something mechanically. And he has been pretty good at keeping balls in play in check. He has a 31% hard hit rate against with a 27% fly ball rate. Both those numbers are better than average. But Oviedo is still allowing a lot of balls in play. His strikeout rate is 17% with a 9% walk rate, which means he's letting up a lot of base runners. And plenty of those base runners are scoring. He let up five run runs last week against the Pirates. He let up six runs to the Tigers, just two were earned there. So that's worth noting for sure. He let up four runs to the Cubs. Neither Detroit or Pittsburgh is good. The Cubs also a below average offense versus righties. And that's a key when looking at the Rockies because they're pretty bad. But I think we can feel good about stacking them here despite their struggles. So they're easily number two for me on this slate behind the Cardinals for tonight. Oviedo's biggest struggles have definitely been with lefties. The strikeout rate gets cut in half against them, which bumps up Ryan McMahon, Ryan Malpapia, Charlie Blackman, but the righties are not out of play. Oviedo lets up more fly balls to them, more hard contact. So I'd bump up the lefties, but don't cross off the righties. I would also say McMahon got moved down to seventh last night because he's been on a strikeout binge, but he has six hard hit balls the past two days. So I'm okay with him, despite the fact that he's in a pretty serious rut. So Ryan McMahon potentially mentioned in a later section on the podcast for today as well. The Astros are not gonna give you salary savings to get to Coors Field. We'll run through some value plays and things to watch, but they're just so hard to pass up here, which is why again, I wanted to focus on the value pitchers for today. The Astros are facing Sam Hentris who has really struggled as a starter. He has just a 20% strikeout rate with a lot of walks, a 17% walk rate in there. Normally I want to minimize walk rate because I want to increase balls and play. I wanna give my guys more chances at impactful contact. The helpful thing is that even though Hentris is not allowing a lot of balls and play, the balls and play he does allow are getting whipped. He has the fly ball rate as a starter is 50% or 42%. He has led up a 46% hard hit rate for the season, plus he's a lefty. The Astros will torch a good lefty, give them one, a guy who's struggling and it's gonna be a rough night most likely. Hentris has a 7.32 ERA this season. The peripherals don't show too many signs for hope. So Hentris led up six runs last time out against Minnesota and the Astros much better offense than the Twins. The Astros, I would say are in the same tier as the Rockies and the Cardinals for tonight, which is hard to do because it's Coors Field in a good spot, but I think the Astros are actually up in that tier for today. So I do like the Astros a lot and I think that I'm just gonna filter through these three teams, rotate through value plays and try to make this the focal point of tonight. Facing a lefty does open up a bit more value than usual too because Yuli Gurriel is $3,200. He is much more appealing for me against the lefty. We also Mike Chasmakormick in there. He might not play because Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley, Jordan Alvarez, all those guys are healthy, but if they decide to give one of the lefty's night off, it could put McCormick in there and he's solid. He tends to play the whole game when he starts. So there's no risk. Like we talked about Ari Stadis Aquino last night, no risk for McCormick leaving for a pinch hitter or a defense replacement. So if he does play, I will like him a lot at $2,400, but check the lineup for sure because not a lot that he's in there with everyone being healthy for the Astros. Let's finish up with things to watch. I know not all of you are going to want to spend down a pitcher and I understand that. If I'm ranking out the stud pitchers for tonight, that would be Max Scherzer one and Lance Lynn two. Scherzer facing the Dodgers, which is very tough, but he's also Max Scherzer. Seems to be a kind of guy who would rise to the occasion. His strikeout rate is still 32% since the sticky discussion ticked up, which you do want to look at for Scherzer because he was named pretty centrally with regards to those things. So definitely do you want to focus on that for Max Scherzer? So I'm okay with it. Despite those things. Numbers good enough. Lance Lynn is facing Detroit, but he's on the road. He's also letting up a lot of impactful contact right now. Wind is blowing out. Both these guys have imperfections and that's part of why I'm willing to save a bit of salary here and go with the value options, specifically Gilbert over these guys for tonight. But if you want to go spend up, I would say Scherzer one, Lynn two. In looking for some value at hitter, I do like the Royals against Knight. They're basing Jay Hap. Hap is still having issues with hard contact. His strikeout rate is 19% over his past four starts. And the Royals has some guys who can hit lefties really well. I'm hoping Edward Olivares hits sixth. He is minimum salary. He'd be a great one-off value. Like if you want to go even more nuts at Coors, put Olivares in there as a one-off and then go a four-three stack, do it that way. So hopefully Olivares is batting high enough we can do that for today. Finally, there is risk here, but I do think the Astros or the Orioles, not the Astros, there's no risk with the Astros. The Orioles bring some value to the table for today. They're facing Griffin Canning who can get strikeouts, which is why it's very risky, but he does let up a lot of impactful contact. So the Orioles could get mowed down tonight. Like if you tell me right now, Griffin Canning throws no hitter tonight, you know, not super shocked, it happens. But I do like the upside for the Orioles for today. Cedric Mullins is not a value at $3,100, but I think we can say he's very, very under salaried. He's stupid good, he should not be $3,100, he's amazing. I still love Anthony Santander. I would also keep an eye on Ramon Urias. He will likely hit lower in the order, probably seventh, eighth, ninth, but he hit the ball really well in triple A. His contact profile in a small sample in the big leagues is not terrible. He is $2,200. If he bats seventh or so, I can get there. So check out the Orioles lineup. I think if you can get to Mullins, I mean, maybe you won't be able to, but I do like, I think that he's a tremendous, tremendous option from a one-off perspective for today. So Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Ramon Urias, some guys you might wanna look at for the Orioles for today. Let's finish up here with our Dinger calls. And I mentioned before that Ryan McMahon may be featured here. This is maybe an active like rebellion that I'm mad at the Rockies for bumping him down the order. I get it, he was striking, like I think he had like 15 strikeouts in like a 20 plate appearance sample. I get it. He should have been bumped down, but I'm still maxed, this is Ryan McMahon. So Ryan McMahon is gonna go yard tonight, maybe as many as three times. We'll see, we'll see. I'll set the over under two and a half for Ryan McMahon, home runs for tonight. The other one that I wanna go with, I don't wanna go Coors Field because that is kind of boring. So I'm gonna go, I mean, outside of McMahon. So I'm gonna go with a fun one. I do wanna leave Coors Field. And I think that one that looks pretty good, again, ignoring the Astros is they're also boring, but I think that Salvador Perez, once again, makes sense. He was a Dinger call, whatever night it was, I faced Martin Perez and he went deep there. So let's run it back. Salvador Perez, the fun call for today, assuming he plays and we'll go with Ryan McMahon as the boring one because he's at Coors Field. Maybe not boring because, you know, he's been moved down the order. He's on a terrible slump, but I do still think he grades that well for today. So the official Dinger calls for the solo shot for today, Ryan McMahon and Salvador Perez. That is all the time that we have here for today on the solo shot, but as always, we are back again later today for the Q and A. That's at 4 p.m. Eastern of the Fandal, YouTube, Twitch, Facebook, and Twitter pages. Swing by then and ask your questions to get sent for tonight's slate of MLB DFS. We also have the NASCAR podcast, 10.30 a.m. on YouTube, up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. After that, just subscribe to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. If you have questions for me before 4 p.m., I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis. J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fandal podcast network at Fandal podcast. Thank you to everyone for tuning in, not only today, but also this entire week. No solo shot Monday due to the 4th of July holiday. I guess we're off, so I won't be here. So no solo shot Monday. Back with you on Tuesday. Have a fantastic and safe weekend. We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been the solo shot right here on the Fandal podcast network.