 Hello and welcome to the CLT markets Monday mark a webinar with myself David Madden Mark an analyst today's date is Monday the 18th of October 18th of December and The time has just gone 12 15 p.m 12 15 p.m. GMT 12 15 UK time as always with the webinars. What I'll do is I will leave the risk warning on screen here. We have to have a read of that It's essentially states whatever is discussed in this webinar is Partly my own personal views and opinions and comments Not to be construed as explicit investment or trading advice This is something that I'll keep my compliance requirements quite happy. And it's all fairly said forward And for those of you who tune in at regular webinars and also our education videos, you know, it's all fairly standard stuff So one of leaving the risk warning on screen fun to be there I'll just have a quick rundown of what's been going on in the markets of the past few days big news is Is that the markets aren't quite strong this morning the thought of high hopes that the US lawmakers will vote this week to pass the Tax proposals that Donald Trump Was talking about under on the on the journey to the White House and Metta Trump was elected over a year ago He's been an office since January last year and it's taken obviously some time to get to get here But it doesn't appear that he's finally actually going to get The he's going to get the tax reforms that he's that he's wanted. They've not quite in the exact same fashion that he wanted or as a as a Direct and be at low level in terms of tax rates like the corporate tax But that is part of this for you Compromise is required. So up so stock markets, but if the US market has been rallying several for a long time now Interestation of this of this being approved and there's more and more talk at the US government will be voting out this week try to get a wrap-up for Christmas speaking with the Political theme over the journey to Germany the Germany is still without a function of government But later this week the Christian Democratic Union party the CDU headed by Angela Merkel I've to meet with Mark Schultz party of the social Democrats the SPD Social Democratic Party they have been coalition partners in the past and And on the back of the most recent general election in Germany, which didn't actually give a majority to one single party There was talk that this this that this coalition was going to be reformed and the two parties are meeting Green to beat to discuss possibility of talks this week. So high hopes in United States for political reform and also high hopes in Germany for a tension deal, which could see a functioning government be referred to Germany bearing the mind We've had some stellar economic indicators out of Germany In recent weeks, which would have accounted for the time period that Actually was no function cover. So they kind of German economy is taking on just fine without it it's one of those things that a The prospect of a functioning government boosts the economic sentiment But at the same time the economic sentiment economic indicators work work work for providing the boost all along So what I did quickly do is as always with our webinars. I'll give you a quick rundown of what's keep a night up for this week There's a few bits and pieces as you can imagine is the week we're running up the Christmas We saw that so if you saw some trainers and investors aren't going to be aware of the markets So we could see in lawful utility But turning our attention to the economic counter and looking ahead to tomorrow or Tuesday Firstly, not the morning. I'm talking the morning German IFO business sentiment keep an eye out for that a half one on Tuesday, we have the houses parents from America and at lunchtime on half one UK time Checking over to Wednesday. We PPI numbers out of Germany at 7 o'clock in the morning with the existing home sales coming out of United States 3 p.m. I'll have to do every single Wednesday at half three. We have the major We have the oil the inventories and the gas figures coming out Looking at Thursday, we have public sector net forwarding of the UK at half nine a half one with we have the CPI numbers coming out of Canada And we also need retail sales What else we have on half one on Thursday is it's a course The US GDP for the third quarter. That's probably the biggest one one for the biggest economic indicators of the week And arguably the second biggest economic indicator of the week is going to be UK GDP Which comes out at half nine on Friday morning also Friday We also have a GDP update from Canada at half one We also have spending figures and per second something figures coming out of the United States at half one on Friday So what I'll do is I'll run through the major indices Modalities and currency pairs and if there are any markets that you want to have a quick look at Please feel free to just type in the chat box and I will cover them So take a look now First off the back at the putsy 100 All I can see here on the putsy 100 is that we can actually finally managed to appear to snap out of the downward trend that that market has been in since November the market in November push higher Didn't quite take off the old-time high That was created in early June managed to push lower created a lower low High a lower high and another lower low But now that we push back north of that and we're approaching We're well above the 7,500 mark as you can see here the market is pushing higher I'm lucky if the MACD indicator the MACD Instagram is in the clear swing To positive side on the momentum indicator positive momentum is it is growing from the confirming the upward move In the underlying market so you can get the other companies that is that this move that we're seeing here is going to last Markets pushing higher the next big left to potentially keep an eye out for is it head up towards this area This is quite a solid Asian area here of around 7,561 And if you go north of that and the 7,600 level could be the next big level to watch out for Any moves to the downside may find support in round the fifth of a moving average in a 7,560 or south of that down towards the 200 a moving average just north of 7400 itself But if you do manage to kind of move south of the Touring a moving average would give you that you can hang back down towards the December low of 7,278 As you mentioned the German market is quite strong given that people are at high hopes of Political outcome in Germany what we can see here is after several weeks of large consolidation We finally managed to what to appear to have managed to broken out of that range ball move Today we've hit the highest level not seen since the Thursday the 9th of November If you don't recall that that was the night when there was a major sell-off That's the decay dropped a thousand points and also doing surge in the end, which also of course I'll do the issue But that move that we're seeing here from early November. That was the move originated in Japan and no one was a few severed with a few reasons That were put out there as an explanation for the move There was there was no consensus as to what I should be drove that move so that kind of really rattled the global markets I know what appears we're finally actually snapping out of that trend the broad theme for the last few weeks has been to the upside And we finally managed to create the highest level in about five or six weeks Also the marketing indicator just about see I've been assuming by clothes here We can see that there isn't increase in positive momentum So the momentum is with the balls should be managed to kind of go north of this price here I was comfortable to play at the low from the first of November at 13,316 where that what that gap was created should be good should be Should be going north of that again I should manage to manage a decisive move beyond that We could be looking to head back towards November high and the all-time high of 13,534 Even if we do kind of move to the downside we may find some support in around the one where they're moving out Sorry, the 50 moving average in around the 13,100 agent. We did see a lot of price validation 50 or 100 points on either side of that metric over the last few weeks Surely moves up again. We could find support support in around this area here the 13,000 It's only really if you actually make a decisive they have a decent move south of 13,000 Then could we potentially be worried at the markets turning over on itself? But if you do if you just turn over on itself big level to keep an eye out for will be the December low of 12,810 that could be the side of between Properly turning over on itself or whether it's just actually a bit of a correction But turn attention now to the US markets which are quite decent shape Record ice cream last Friday. I would be kind of high hopes and expectations The Italian market. Yes, I'll do the Italian markets that they've been busy babe. It won't be one second time so looking at the SP 500 here It's been in a solid upward trend for seven months For quite some time now in a classic example of higher highs and higher lows My momentum is really showing any signs of slowing down as you can see here We're hitting all-time highs here. That tells you Most of what you need to know that's the direction of the market We can see a fairly obvious increase in possible momentum as a market moving up some momentum is the fires Next episode that you watch out for to the upside could be 2700 I think of course as we are in large one chart of territory keeping looking towards big psychological numbers 2700 and 10 20 30 so on and so forth all the way up to 2800 Move to the downside may find some support in around this area here the highs of the middle of last week in around the 2670 level or perhaps even now as well as each thousand 650 region in around here, but I know that it has been a pretty common theme But for the S&P and also to be at the Bell Jones over the last few months And the chart on the the Dow Jones to dissimilar Being in a solid upward trend creating higher highs and higher lows as we can do the long Look at Mac indicator is it firmly on the positive side to improve the momentum indicator If we do happen to have any callbacks who may find support in around the 24,535 or 24,500 regions in around here We have a size of all that we may find some support we play in around 24,000 and 71 Lucky to the upside the next big psychological number to watch out for would be 25,000 which are less than 200 points away from I don't be on 25,000 the next bigger number will be 26,000 to have you keep an eye out for I live a lot now at the Italian market The baby so take a look now at the Italian market One of the things that I which I didn't actually I was tempted to put Twitter I thought of a chart form, but it didn't one of the things that I was considering about the Italian market It's in we could be looking at the beginning There's only a possibility give it a beginning of a head and shoulders reversal pattern So you see a rally into the market here I just draw them draw the So it's a head and shoulders the first pattern Mapping out D&L by putting in these these circles It's where market pushes rallies to a certain point. I close back to a reaction low, which is here then pushes higher yet again and the height of this is Exceeds the previous high and then the market moves back to the reaction lows Pushes higher again fails doesn't quite get fails to get as high as the as the high here and often They're on the same height or slightly below the previous high here So it kind of looks like a head a head and the shoulders and Why I say that we could be potentially in the beginning of that one because north for a head told of the Fully form the market need to fall below what's called the neckline at the neckline as we draw mine Along here where the reaction low was created and you go up if you go horizontal If the market it's already bounced off the neckline once here, so Off the head and shoulders yet it has a potential to be so so if on the odd chance Market does make it a slice of break below this area here in around 22,000 level we could be looking at a head and shoulders reversal and Kind of a textbook example of a head and shoulders reversal reversal But I should tell us that the market would trade below the neckline and often betrays to the neckline before moving south again But seeing as you actually manage to actually gain support from that price area here We've no kind of signs yet that we could be in the middle of a head and shoulders reversal for the time being man the market managed to not only Stay above this this support region here of the kind of mid-November lows and also the kind of mid-October lows So by the time being while they have a 22,000 mark is acting as support We are if we could It could be it could be assumed that they kind of wider upper trend may stale the in place And if that were the case first level watch out for to the upside will put the December high At 22,844 and then if you take off that next down to keep coming up for could be 23,135 But just bearing in mind if you decide to break south of 22,000 We could be looking heading because see him move back up to 22,000 before the KGC and other move to the downside and how we And how we Look to kind of ascertain a price target for a head and shoulder reverse pattern is take distance between the head which is a let's call that 20 3,000 and And the neckline 22,000 but a thousand points and project that down the way from the Breaking of the neckline. So if we do see a decisive break on the neckline We could see of a trace potentially back down towards 21,000 To be more confident of a hedge on a reversal Actually carrying to being being actually fully playing out. You would like to see the market Trade below 22,000 and then move back up towards 22,000 for the KGC another move to the downside again Enriched the question they're saying disorder disappeared from the news lately And there's a question is that in relation to the Italian market in general or what disappeared I'm not sure of what you're trying to say there Tony in relation to the what disappeared from the market Heading on to the gold market So you have to have quite a positive run on the global equities Goal was under a severe pressure for the last For a lot of December seeing as we have the interest rate decision last week This positive account here on Wednesday the 13th was the interest was the interest rate decision were the bed After many months of speculation finally, I should like interest rates in the United States 0.35 by 0.25% of the third interest rate height of 2018 the outlook they've stated in the press conference The outlook for the For the Federal Reserve in 2018 it's unchanged. Well, guess what? There's gonna be a lot of change at the Federal Reserve We still have a couple of Fed members to be announced Jerome Paul will be taking over from Daniela in a In February, so the outlook we don't know the time being the Federal Reserve Outlook is remaining on change. That's all well and good But the Fed make up is going to change in the next few months We don't know what members are actually going to be on the Federal Reserve And we don't know what their views are going to be so I expect it to be kind of steady as she goes But that may that may all change when we actually know what individuals Actually make up the make up the Federal Reserve So keep a line on the price here for the for the gold The market is pushing higher It is the target surprise we have a decent sell off from 1300 down to around 1236 The market is pushing higher here. We're seeing a steady decline in negative momentum. So setting pressure is waning The first potential hurdle to keep a line on 4 with a 200-day moving average And I was in around the 1270 of each and I've been moved north of 1270 With the next potential hurdle could be the 100-day moving average at 1286 and then beyond that Up towards 1300 Gold spend several weeks kind of in a very narrow range in around here So you can only be kind of more confident that a positive move or a bullish move was taken off in gold If you actually take out say the 100-day moving average at 1286 on indeed the 1300 level If the market does run on a seam and turn over on itself and continue to get the wider negative trend That's been in place for the last few weeks. The first level potential to keep a line on 4 It's got to be the December low of 1236 and if we go south of that Solidation in around the 1230 region and then below that july low of 1204 Yeah, I'll be coming on to currency pairs in a few minutes. I'll do these starting kiwi then Was that just a quick question Tony was everything covered okay on in relation to the the italian market of the the level I'll just move on to the oil while you are typing The oil market as a has been pleasable kind of consolidation going to range bound over the last couple of weeks ever since it was announced at the very end of november and at the uh, I don't think we're going to be Going to be imposing extending their production cost will be from The end of march 2018 until the end of 2018 Which is why he's anticipated for the for the for the few weeks of the run up to it All we've really done is going to remain this over a range bound area The oil market has been in a solid upward trend Since june class example of higher highs and higher lows all the way We haven't really any evidence yet to suggest that the upward move is coming to an end We just haven't really actually seen any any of the advancement granted. We did hit Fresh 27 month high Not too long ago only only last week but at the same time the market really kind of failed to make any decent ground on that Ultimately and look at the brendall contract on the weekly at a weekly chart While it remains north Of the 200 week moving average which comes into play about 61 dollars a barrel and we're currently on 63 70 ish while it is north of the 200 week moving average the outlook is is uh Well could remain positive for brendall and but it should kind of should be remain north of it the next potential level to keep an eye out for from the level back in May 2014 of 67 dollars and 26 cents and if we go beyond that the first psychological 70 bucks a barrel within uh potentially covered play Moves to the downside and all may find some support in around this price action here of the 61 dollars and 24 cents Which isn't too far away with kind of coincides with the 50 day moving average as well And the move below that may find some support in around this price action here on the september high of 59 dollars and 51 cents It's a fairly similar living chart on a price called wpi which i'll turn my attention to now So similar to brends in the solid upper trend throughout The last six last six months granted hasn't really made any real additional progress on From the kind of low sentiment that was that we had in on the relative to the November whole tank meeting Um having a look at this while we hold north um of this this price area here of 55 dollars and 72 cents The outlook is going to continue to likely to remain positive outlook is likely to continue in place I've moved to the upside may find uh resistance at 59 dollars a barrel and 60 dollars a barrel We kind of have psychological numbers and even if you do drop a low 55 72 We could find some why why support coming to play in around here at 54 76 Or perhaps even down to as well as 54 dollars a barrel too I'll have a look now uh at the coffee marketplace I'll have a look now at the coffee market Well, so quite the major Sell-off since since 2011 look at a big picture here on the coffee market coffee arabica the contract we're looking at To move that line for a second Right, but we can chart here take a look at this. It's been in a fairly obvious kind of downward trend look at the 80 14 so that's all three years ago major sell-off Pull back some of the losses that's been in a fairly consistent and obvious downward trend since uh Since the uh, November 2016 lower low lower high lower low lower high Potentially go for another lower low. So we're not too far away from the low 2017 And if you go south of that, we'll give it a look back towards the early 2016 low of this price here Which comes in playing at 108 spot 83 Move to the upside. I think I left now in terms of so the first one to keep an eye out for with the lower 2016 Well, at all of the 2017 at 112 spot 80 Potential uh areas of resistance on the upside should we see a bounce back We did see Not affected at the 100 day moving average they've managed I was I was potentially saying we could see some some resistance coming to play here on the 120 region here From the November low boot in the north of 120 May find some support may find resistance In around the fifth of the moving average at 122 spot 93 or indeed at the 100 day moving average at 126 62 Notice how it did act as resistance for a couple of occasions here in the past Same with this price action here, even though it did actually manage to trade ever so slightly north of it um The more times a market has the more times the market has respected a moving average in terms of the Of support for resistance the more likely it is uh the next time around but obviously if there are no no guarantees Coming on to the currencies now Have a look at the euro versus the us dollar In your questionnaire in relation to does the possibly have a have a have an opposite correlation in the in the main market spot Exactly. Do you mean by that? I'm trying to show what you mean to be honest In the meantime, I will go to the Euro dollar The euro dollar is obviously at a great run over the past over months trod trod 2017 the euro has performed Quite well ever since actually hitting a a multi month high in september Might give up some of the gains pushed higher here high in november managed to take out the high in october We could just could suggest that we're looking at continuing this wider trend Upward trend that's been but it's been through a lackluster over the last number of weeks and for the time being it seems to be kind of almost Like a magnificent drone to the fifth day moving average which comes into play in around 1766 I haven't really kind of moved much much away from that in the last two trading sessions So long as we remain north of the fifth day moving average It's likely the kind of old rock of a positive move is going to continue and should it move should it should it continue First level I have to keep coming up for the upside would be the november high of 1961 and if we go beyond that they'll go back towards 120 and then north of 120 Could be looking through the september high of 120 92 If you have a fairly decent break south of 117 that could be a sign that we're heading back down towards 116 70 or maybe even as well as 115 54 itself and if we go south of 115 54 November low that then that was actually taken to a multi-year low And we could be looking heading back down towards the jala this twice here in july We saw that consolidation in around 114 79 Taking a look at that pound versus the u.s. Dollar The pound's had a great run that's been in a positive upward trend since the loads of November If you draw a line here trend line between November low and the oldest low we can see here But to be fair it did actually trade south of it on a few occasions But all managed to kind of hang up hang above it The wider kind of positive move in the kind of pound versus dollar is still in play Round to it after as it slides to the valley in late November. We have had a pretty A pretty poor December in terms of the first pound is concerned, but It's still well It's not comfortably above north of that trend line if we do see another move to the downside We could head back down towards the trend line support which he comes to play in around the kind of 132 60 70 region and even if you do move move south of it Potentially you could also have some support coming into play on the one on a day moving average and in around this to shy of 132 itself It's only to move say south of say about 131 could we then be getting get a bit nervous and sort of think Maybe you know what the upward trend that has been in has come to an end But at the time being if the holds above those metrics I think it's possible we could see the wider upward trend continue And if you do manage to push higher on the pound versus the dollar Areas keep an eye out for would be 135 48 and then north of that. It's a Denver high of 136 59 are there a couple of The euro versus the you versus the versus the British pound It's been very on a very consolidated around the charity moving average which comes to the place at 80 Place in around here. So it's at 88 80 It's very Sorry at 88 rather zero spot eight zero spot eight eight zero zero very much consolidation in around here Beyond the energy forwarding the last number of weeks But the kind of overall kind of theme has been to the downside We can see here lower low lower high lower low Potentially lower high we haven't we've been trading rate for a range bound ever since so The last few weeks it has to be going to put to the downside But it's the same time it's been a range bound. So it's actually going to start to accurately call Which way the park is going to move to next up do head head south on the turning moving average at 88 Could be heading back down towards zero spot eight six eight nine And if you don't follow that we could be looking back to zero spot eight six zero zero Any move to the upside may come to a resistance from the one or the moving average at zero spot eight nine four five Notice how it managed to do after a resistance here In late november and I think on north of that we could be looking at head back up towards this wise area in around here At zero spot nineteen forty nine I will now do the u.s. Tower versus japanese yen available. I believe it was the Sterling kiwi We wanted to have a look at Dara yen has also been a bit in a range bound the last few weeks But we're getting the decent decent support from the the 112 area here So the whole north of the 112 twice area here We could be looking back up towards the 114 region and north north of the 114 Might cut the uh, that's at least the November high of 114 73 on the table Move to the downside. Should we go south of 112? If we look ahead back down towards just south of 111 price action from here And if we manage to take on that low, then we'll be looking at it We've already have a lower low potentially a lower high here and if we take off this low here That could be a side that we're heading back down towards But the mid-september low of 109 55 and then below that the actual september low of 107 32 So I'll have a look now time as uh As uh, as just gone quarter to one What I'll do now is I'm looking at the Sterling diversity in the museum of dollar and then look to wrap it up So after a 30 sizeable selloff in 2018 and 2016 we're finally kind of seeing uh some kind of upward moves in the pound versus the museum of dollar So we can see here that Lergy throughout 2017 has been a positive move in a slow steady grind But at the end that the pound has has managed to get there notice how as there are Broad kind of team has been up move move the upside higher high low higher low higher high ran into resistance here We didn't see some sort of distance ran out of steam at the 200 week moving average just shy of two and given In play about one spot 98 57 But it's been kind of almost almost Trapped between the 200 the 200 week we have the average to the north and the 100 We have the average to the south and the one thing where the average comes into play at one spot 89 93 sorry 86 93 So we're looking for a move in our direction outside of that range Given that it's been actually pushing higher Uh, basically try 2017 I suspect we could be looking at a break to the upside but that being said buying momentum has been taking off here in my Histogram, so we could we could look to move south for potentially move higher again. So If we did move south I think as we in these few weeks here We did get a bit of support from the 100 week moving average If you do pull that down to the 100 week moving average We could be looking at some some moves and fires enter the whole potentially seeing as it has active support in the last few weeks But but we can a more confident of the kind of upward trend that's been in place throughout 2017 It should be continuing We will want to see a size of a break north of the 200 week moving average at one spot 98 46 And if you do head north of that next areas potentially keep an eye off upper here the mid-shoot High of 2016 a two spot a zero seven 20 two spot zeros zero seven 27 then north of that two spot one up around solid solidation in around here Now just before we actually wrap things up. This is the last monday market webinar of 2017 From myself anyways on on mondays on Monday, I'll say on wednesday the 20th of december half 7 p.m. UK time half 7 gmt We have the Next generation the forex webinar And then after that we'll be looking at a webinar We'll be looking at the the wednesday webinar on the 3rd of january 2018 A half 7 p.m UK time trading on the edge will be the topic of that webinar And then I met myself on friday the 5th of january 2018 at 115 because it will be non farm payrolls So tune in for that one If I don't speak to you but before then have a good christmas happy holidays. Um, I've had a good trading week and good luck