 Welcome to TicMail weekly market outlook for week commencing April 13th with me Patrick Munley. With large parts of the US economy remaining in lockdown as the number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 continues to rise, market watchers are expecting the economic data to play to worsen. Initial jobless claims will once again be watched in particular due to the timeliness of the data for any new records. Meanwhile, retail sales on Wednesday will likely come in line with consensus, which is currently forecasting a 1.4% monthly decline in retail sales across the US. As consumers have held back on spending due to the lockdowns, job losses and widespread uncertainty, the substantial impact on the labour market will also be reflected in the fall as risk aversion leads to higher saving tendencies, industrial production data for March will also be released next week, giving insight into the extent of the impact on both production and consumer spending, as are some regional Fed surveys for April. From a technical perspective, the dollar index is testing a support zone here at the 99.32 to 98.64. If buyers emerge here, look for a move up to test the 101.60 to 101.98 area as the next upside objective. However, if we fail to find support above this 98.64, look for a move down to develop through the price cycle lows at 98.30 on route to a quality downside objective at 96.21. Whilst we're talking about a dollar, let's check in with gold. Gold is up, looking to test price cycle highs now towards the 1703 level, watching for any momentum divergence to develop as this could precede a pullback to retest the 1600 area as support. However, whilst we are trading above the 1567 level, these pullbacks should be considered constructive and buyers are likely to emerge at key levels as we look to break through price cycle highs and ultimately get a test of the resistance cluster up towards 17.51 to 17.65. That's going to be the next real key decision point for the markets. In the euro zone, industrial output and inflation data is due for February. We're likely gone in little interest, given it precedes the COVID-19 outbreak across Europe. February German data released last week provided some more signs that the industrial sector had turned the corner in 2020. Although this is somewhat irrelevant after the March manufacturing PMI data suggests productions slumped at anual rates in excess of 10% at the end of the first quarter. Preliminary prices data showed a half percentage point slide in the HICP rate of inflation for March. A market watchers expect a further deterioration in Friday's readings. Underline inflation rates should also moderate over the coming quarters given the deteriorating economic environment, ensuring that the European Central Bank monetary policy science will remain exceptionally accommodative for an extended period of time. From a technical perspective, the euro dollar is testing resistance here at the 109.60 to 109.87 as this area contains look for a pullback to test support back to 108.50. If buyers don't step back in at 108.50, look for a quick retest of 101.70 on route to a test of 106.29. However, if we do find support at the 108.50 look for a move up to test the next resistance zone at the 110.69 to 110.83. In the UK, BRC retail sales data for March will provide insight into the coronavirus impact on consumption. Store sales are set to plummet, although there could be some upside in online sales. Meanwhile, the Bank of England releases the credit conditions survey for the first quarter. The data collection period will have been primarily in March and will cover almost the whole month. This will therefore provide some useful insight as to whether the unprecedented action by the Central Bank and UK government to provide extraordinary credit support has increased the availability of loans, particularly in the corporate sector. From a technical perspective, the PAN sterling continues to test the 124.80. We know some divergence developing on the momentum studies here, so we could see a pullback early in the week to test the equality objective at 121.90. If buyers don't step back in here, look for a deeper pullback to test the 119.50 to 120 area. Here we will be looking for bullish reversal patterns to set long positions, ultimately targeting a move up towards the 128 handle. Only a failure below 119.50 would concern this bullish bias and see a deeper pullback to test 116.50. In Asia markets will focus on China economic data releases to assess the COVID-19 impacts. While the GDP results for the first quarter will be closely watched, investors will also pay attention to the monthly data for figures such as industrial output trade, investment and retail sales for further impacts and insights into the impact of the extent of economic weakness that could have persisted through March. Specifically in Japan, the key data of note will be Friday's industrial production reading. The final print for February is expected to be weak and the outlook is expected to be particularly worrisome. From a technical perspective, as the dolly inn holds this 108 level, look for another leg of upside to test this 110.50 to 110.69 area. Watching the bearish reversal patterns in this so to set short positions, ultimately looking for a move down to test into the 105.60 area. However, if we fail to see these bearish reversal patterns in March here, looking for a retest of 112 on route them to a likely test up into the 114 handle. In Australia, the only key release that's going to be focused on next week really is going to be the unemployment data on Wednesday. Probably the economy will have transitioned towards significant job losses, which would fit the pattern of other major developed economies. However, timing of the survey limits the impact of the shutdowns in March, so market watchers expect to see a more significant hit in April. From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar is testing some pivotal resistance at the 63.50 area. If we do see a pullback here early in the week, look for trend line support at the 62.30 area to re-encourage buyers and ultimately look for a move up to test the 64.30 to 64.90. This will be the next key decision point for the market. However, if we fail to find support at the trend line, look for a deeper pullback into the 61 handle. Again, as this area contains the correction, we could see a more complex correction development and retest the current highs at the 63.50 before pulling back once again to the 61 before finally getting that push up to the 64.90 and potentially as high as 66.95. At this stage, only a failure below 59.77 would really concern this bullish bias. Finally, in Canada, the macroeconomic data will include an unprecedented flash or now cast estimate for March GDP growth and Q1 GDP growth, which is going to be released on Wednesday. Market Watchers are looking for the economy to have contracted in the 3% to 4% month-over-month range in March using income production accounts and 2% to 3% range in Q1 using the conventional expenditure accounts. Much of the data collected is going to be around the month of February for most releases and March, really the only key release you're going to have from that perspective is the labour data and housing starts. Since these figures are going to be released on the same day as the BOC, the Bank of Canada meeting, it's likely they'll influence the tone of that meeting. Bank of Canada's work is by no means done as its pace of actions continue to slip behind the Federal Reserve's. While some areas of market function having proved some have not and there is room for targeted stimulus likely to be announced after Wednesday's monetary policy meeting. From a technical perspective, the Canadian Dollar continues to test support at the 1.3910 area. As we find bids just below 1.39, look for a double correction to ensue here and we could test back up into the 1.43 area before finally getting another leg lower to meet the downside objective at 1.36. If we don't catch these early bids at or just below 1.39, then we can anticipate that we'll see this test of the 1.3610 to 1.3690 area earlier in the week. That concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing April 13th.