 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is Friday, which means it is time to talk some strikeout props with Rob Friedman pitching Ninja picking his brain on a Disgusting Slate Friday so many good pictures available, which means it will not be hard to find the strikeout props And we'll talk about the strikeout leaderboard for Friday night over at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Joined here as mentioned by Rob Friedman check him out on Twitter at pitching Ninja You can find his work on peacock MLB comm MLB on Fox and of course right here at Fandall sportsbook as well and Rob What a great slate to get to break down for today. How you doing? I'm doing great. It is a big slate There's a good slate yesterday too for a short for a very short slate It made it tough to find because I have to do like, you know The the dark side for you and talk about bats as well for the daily fantasy podcast And it was hard to find bats I wanted to use because every pitcher was good like I was like do I want to use guys against Zach Gallin? No, like it's it's really tough man So a bit better today in that regard but like still absurd top-end pitching today Well, whenever Shohei pitches, it's always a big big exactly even though He hasn't been tremendously dominant lately, but a lot of walks. Yeah, a lot of walks. I think it's that finger thing. So Hopefully, I don't know if it's in his head partially thinking it's gonna come back up or it really is But it seems to be affecting him later in games. Yeah, and they were there was some question if he go today They confirmed yesterday that he would which to me says it's a semi endorsement of health The fact that on Thursday, they were like, okay, he'll be good to go But a little bit uncertainty there and it's interesting because Otani is a favorite to lead the site and strikeouts So maybe some value elsewhere We'll talk about that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast if you want some women's World Cup talk We had Dr. Ed Feng on earlier on this week to break down USA versus Vietnam on top of other stuff For the World Cup find that on the covering the spread podcast feed and on the Fandall YouTube page and on Fandall TV plus But let's take a look at this Bananas slate for tonight here Rob because again so many fun pictures not just Otani We got Joe riding in slant sling. We got Freddy Peralta who's pitching pretty well Hopefully Michael Soroka routing back into form a lot of fun guys out there So when you look at the props, we'll be at the props for tonight first Where you see the value right now at Fandall Sportsbook, you know, that is a great question I was looking so I had my parlay pick was Senga for six K's or more Braddish for six K's plus and Otani for eight K's plus just because I'm a big bully I have to have something on the Otani games generally. I mean, it's just the way I think I wanted to ask you about the Senga one because he he had like this walk issue earlier on in the year and it seems like he kind of refined that as we got into May and June but the past I don't know two months or something it feels to me as if he's reached a new level He's been throwing his forcing fastball a bit less over his pastic starts and he has a 31% strikeout rate in that time He is facing Boston. I think that's why the strikeout prop is low for tonight But I feel like with the way that he's pitching I feel like it's probably a bit too low What are your thoughts on Senga in this one? That's exactly what I was thinking I mean, obviously Boston's a tough team to face But to me it's when when you have a guy as hot as Senga and I think he has figured some things out Biggest thing with him and this is something to think about when a pitcher comes over from Japan is the balls a little bigger here And he even said he's like, you know, I finally adjusted to the baseball Right, it matters both on his ghost fork, even though that's been unhittable. Anyway, but really, you know fastball command Hmm Yeah, and five and a half the number for Senga taking on the Red Sox for tonight The individual one for that is minus 150 to get to six strikeouts talk about Kyle Bradish as well Bradish playing In one of the earlier games for tonight taking on the raise obviously a tough matchup But I mean he's pitching well, so we'll put you on Bradish for tonight Really that he's pitching. Well, it's a big spot for him and I like his stuff. I think he's a dynamic pitcher And I could see him reaching six hopefully six k's early so I can relax Yeah, exactly, you know get that one done out of the way pretty early on over five and a half for Bradish Minus 112 I would also say this time of year He benefits and the fact this game is indoors because it's so warm everywhere else You want those cool temperatures where you can get them and you you're not getting them any place in the u.s Right now, but indoors in Tampa obviously a tough matchup, but I do think that is a benefit for him Let's talk about otani because what better subject is there possibly to discuss you mentioned the eight strikeouts here Taking on the pirates. Uh, yohano viejo on the opposing side of this game otani To get to eight strikeouts minus 136 and we talked about the walks and obviously rob Walks stink for strikeout props because that's a guaranteed four pitches per plate appearance But even with the walks otani is still getting like he had 12 against the Dodgers 10 against the white socks And that's in this span where the walks have been high I think that you were talking about the blister I think that's reflecting his pitch mix because he's been throwing more four seamers in the past six or so starts So I feel like that's backed up by the data too, but the strikeouts are still there despite that Yeah, that's exactly it and you know, hopefully he's On his way to being better I think what he did and this is just my speculation is he was throwing a lot of sweepers early like predominantly sweepers Then tried to mix back in splitters and he has traditionally had some blister issues when throwing splitters So my thought is then he switches to throw in maybe more four seamer working four seamers in Just constantly tinkering not only to keep hitters off balance, but also make sure he stays healthy deep in games Hopefully he's figured it out because when he's on he's so much fun to watch And the absurd thing too is even with that blister. He's still been going a hundred pitches regularly He's I don't get it like again With all that he does with the batting playing every day The fact that he can still go out there and go a hundred plus Regularly is bananas but also hugely beneficial for us in terms of strikeouts because it gives you a lot of wiggle room where he can Be imperfect but still get you eight strikeouts. Yeah, exactly. That's what I'm that's what I'm hoping If he goes deep in the game you know, I expected from him he loves to perform in front of that crowd and You know, I could I definitely see it. I hope These things take adjustment time and he'll figure out how to release it without damaging his fingers anymore Right, but luckily it's nothing structural. It's just a minor little right and hopefully not his final homestarks I don't want to deprive angels fans of watching this for a couple more months You know, hopefully they can round things into form Keep him there and uh keep getting to watch the greatest player of all time in shohei otani So the three-legged parlay for rob is shohei otani eight plus strikeouts kote senga Six plus strikeouts and kyle braddish six plus strikeouts as well Now we do have the daily special with the strikeout leaderboard up over at vandal sportsbook because all the starters were announced very early thursday Bless those teams all 30 teams getting their starters out there and shohei otani is a favorite right now rob He is plus 220. So I want to ask you Given there is some uncertainty around otani with the finger But also there are a lot of good alternatives on this slate. Are you inclined to look away from otani when betting this market? Yeah, I definitely would I mean while I like otani for eight k's or more. I am worried about you know With finger issues anything could crop up, you know, you just get a little bit of irritation All of a sudden he's got to leave the game early and that would suck and it would suck if you bet on him here Yeah, fromber who probably will go deep and rack up k's. I totally get that braxon garret's always my sleeper Like it seems like yeah, he's quietly can pick up a lot of k's and parolta's been pitching great and then I had senga too And kukuchi has a pretty good matchup today as well. Yeah, it's revenge game I know that like, you know, it seemed like that's been pretty good terms But like, you know, it doesn't matter if you were like in the organization for five seconds It is a revenge game. That's the rule. I don't make the rules. I just followed them and reheny revenge game two by that logic so kukuchi 23 to 1 and I was going to ask you about him because He's a guy where The peripherals are always really good, but the bad at ball data sometimes bites him But it seems like recently he's been throwing that change of a bit less any more so on other pitches And it seems like that has been kind of the right combo for him Mariners we've talked about this a lot. Love to strike out against lefties 23 to 1 for kukuchi. Is that long enough for you to bite there? Yeah, I would throw something on that I mean, he's capable of striking out 10 or more I could see that against that lineup and is that going to be enough to win? Yeah, it probably will be Yeah, what do you think the winner today will have? It's probably around that, right? I'd say 10 11 given the number of guys who can get your double digits here I think that's what you're gonna need but kukuchi has that within his range of outcomes So yeah, I think so especially against that lineup. So absolutely and and the revenge game too. I like that theory I mean, it's it's 70 percent revenge game 30 percent. He's a good pitcher like that's that's the the ration Well, 20 percent. He's a good pitcher 10 percent matchup That's the the breakdown for me at least when we're trying to analyze that Yeah, and 23 to 1. I mean, we're not saying it's gonna happen We're saying it's in the realm of possibility of things that could happen right around 4 odds As long as you take that into account when you're betting, you know The odds of spet does not hit or 96% keep that in mind, you know be okay Losing whatever you're putting on that because 96 a time you will not get it back Yeah, if we win we're heroes like we we nailed this and we're gonna fro about it forever If we lose it's gonna be like, yeah, what'd you expect? Exactly? I want to ask about joe ryan I find him kind of interesting here taking on lance lin now Lin has been on the world's best heater as far as strikeouts go He had like a 16 strikeout game. He is a so I was looking at his like pitch mix Did he add a curveball? Is that a new pitch for him? Or what is that? He's throwing it more. He's always kind of had it hidden But he has worked like I think he realized he can't just throw fastballs by folks and survive on that because everyone knows your stick Yeah, so he's been mixing up a lot more and having really good results And yeah, I know people wanted to write him off after the early lance lin showings But he's still striking dudes out like he can throw. I mean give him give him some credit Yeah, so I thought that lin might be the dark horse here, but it turns out he has shorter odds than joe ryan ryan has 10 plus strikeouts four separate times this year. He's plus 750 I think to me, I don't take the value with some of the guys we were talking about later on You know, I think that kikuchi is probably my favorite of the guys on the board at their odds, but Ryan did at least tempt me a plus 750 any thoughts for you on him against the white sox He could very easily do that. I mean I that is also in the realm of possibility. I know he's kind of He's uneven for me Yeah, but he's certainly capable of striking out the world And you have I mean lin facing a lineup that strikes out a lot too that yeah kind of those odds kind of make sense Yeah, I got my Byron buxton bobblehead up here and he's I think go for his past 26 he's got his Bobblehead as many hits as the real maybe the bobblehead is the curse. Maybe I need to consider this I might have I might have jinxed my guy by putting him out there But uh, so we'll consult with the board to decide if I need to take him down Later on but it sounds like Rob. You've also got a boost on tap for today a pitching ninja boost. What's that? We do over at fandal. You have a parlay boost So we've been doing like regular straight bet boost, but this is a parlay boost three legs or more And plus 400 odds or more and you get a 30 parlay boost. So that's pretty sweet Okay, I love it. Maybe check out those strikeout props looking at brad is looking at otani Uh in looking at um kode senga first night as well Maybe dive into those see what you can see and see if you can get that parlay boost in there as well Over at fandal sportsbook You have me second guessing myself because I had kukuchi in my parlay and then was like I still I love him tonight against this I mean, so I think if the other options weren't as good I would talk you out. I would talk you into kukuchi But the problem is I agree with you on senga wholeheartedly. I love brad ish and it's otani. So I can't talk you out any of those guys is the issue Yeah, I like this is what exactly was going on in my head. Well while I was picking I was like You know, I could I could but I just feel strong more strongly about this Which means one of those guys isn't going to come through Exactly, that's how it always goes. But you know, I think the process here is good And I like all three of those picks So good luck to you rob. It was a pleasure to have you back on the show for today And we'll talk to you once again next week. Awesome. Take care, man All right, that is rob freeman check it out on twitter at pitching ninja find his work over at peacock nlb.com and they'll be on fox and of course here at fandal sportsbook and covering the spread every friday as well I'm gonna dive into some money lines I like for tonight across major league baseball In just one second at first the us women's soccer team is taking on the world You can take home bonus bets every time they win with fandal because right now new customers get $100 and bonus bets guaranteed plus another $10 at bonus bets for every team usa win Sign up between now and august 3rd Then place your first $5 bet to unlock your bonus bets that way You'll be all set to bet on everything from total goals to player props all tournament long however you want to play Don't miss your chance to get $10 and bonus bets for every team usa win plus $100 and bonus bets guaranteed Make every moment more a fandal america's number one sportsbook gambling problem. Call 1 100 gambler Hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in massachusetts in new york 1 8 7 7 8 hoping y or text hope and y in arizona call 1 800 next step or text next set to 5 3 3 4 2 in colorado iowa michigan new jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois tennessee and virginia call 1 800 gambler or visit fandal dot com slash r g in connecticut 188 789 7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1 809 with it in wyomingan cancels 1 805 224 700 or visit ks gambling health dot com in cancels in louisiana 1 877 770 stop in mariland md gambling health dot org and in west virginia 1 800 gambler dot net Must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is not with trouble bonus bets which expire in seven days Where schixen's apply see full terms at fandal dot com slash sportsbook fandal is offering online sports waging in kansas under an agreement With kansas star casino llc Let's dig in now to the moneylines i like across friday over at fandal sports book There are three of them where i'm currently showing value based on my money line model Let's begin things up by talking about that rangers and dodgers game this one has moved It was minus one wait for the rangers earlier on it is now to minus 116 in favor of the rangers I agree with that movement and do still show value at that new number So the rangers money line minus 116 is where i want to go here if you look at this game And you put it on a neutral park my model would favor the rangers there So putting them at home and putting it at minus 116 I do still think there is value in them the implied odds of minus 116 53.7 percent so this basically says that it's a A it even match up if they were on a neutral park putting a 53.7 percent But i've got them a bit more favored than that Let's talk about why here because rangers taking on tony gonsolin gonsolin Last year had a fantastic year in large part because he was able to suppress hard contact much better than a lot of guys can do And that was a legitimate skill Unfortunately for him. It's not a skill that's translated over to 2023 because he slipped there letting up a couple more fly balls as well And it's led to a decrease in his results, especially recently Now you put him on the road against a very tough team in the rangers whose active roster has a 121 wrc plus against righties So I feel like the rangers offense is in a good spot here I would say as well that the Dodgers could pummel andra heaney casini Despite improving this year does still struggle with hard contact But I think this rangers team is broadly underrated right now. I think they're better than the market implies I think they are the better team on a neutral field. So putting them at home to me does imply value at minus 116 I would show value probably out to around minus 125 or so if it gets to minus 125 then maybe pedal back But I don't think we'll get there because this number has already moved. I think the Rangers were even money or so last night. So it's moved quite a bit already Wouldn't expect to move a ton more from that. So the rangers are first money line even at minus 116 Second spot I'm turning to is actually betting against my guy Joe Ryan and betting on the chicago white socks to defeat The minnesota twins for tonight. This one has also moved. It was plus 144 earlier on It is now up to plus 138 the implied odds there 42 for the white socks to win this game My model has the white socks at 45.5 percent So still a decent amount of wiggle room where I do show value on the white socks side of this game Again, we talked about this with rob, but lance lin pitching really well right now Since he started to throw that curve ball a bit more He has a 2.97 skill interactive era Thanks be or thanks to a large boost in strikeouts He still had some rough results. Some of those came last week against atlanta That was on saturday over the weekend That's understandable and the twins are a pretty tough offense too but I think the way to neutralize them is being a high strikeout pitcher and lin Right now with how he's pitching is exactly that So I think that's a plus there. I do like jill ryan a lot. I think that what he's done is Pretty sustainable so far this year and that's why I do the twins favored in this game but again The white socks win odds 45.5 percent the implied odds at plus 138 are 42 percent So still a big enough gap there to take the white socks at plus 138 over at vandal sports book for today So the rangers and white socks the first two the final one is the milwaukie brewers We're talking about freddy peralta a bit uh with rob earlier on and I want to buy into peralta because he's been awesome recently And I think that he's not getting enough credit in this number and I do understand why the braves are Pretty heavily favored here given that they are a fantastic team And that got michael saroka out there So I get it but peralta in eight starts with more sliders He has a 3.61 skill interactive era with a 31 strikeout rate Saroka on the opposing side did look pretty decent in his final start before the all star break But even that game he had three walks compared to four strikeouts His skill interactive era in the major so far this year 4.68 across five outings one in relief four starts So I do the brewers favored in this game getting their money line at plus 106 right now I think is pretty advantageous A bit skeptical about saroka for right now kind of want to be proven wrong on him Before I fully react put him back to where he was before all the injuries piled up. So to me Brewer is a pretty good value here to take at plus 106 on the money line So my three money lines for tonight the white socks plus 138 the brewers plus 106 and the rangers Minus 116 all those numbers currently available over at vandal sportsbook That is all that we have here for today and this week on covering the spread I want to give one final big. Thank you to rob freadman pitching ninja for his time as always You know check out that strikeout leaderboard cfc any value over there at vandal sportsbook And don't forget to check out his parley boost as well for tonight If you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s Do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast if you like what you hear Leave us a five star rating on apple podcast or spotify and don't forget to check out the show On the fandal youtube page and fan duel tv plus and again the women's world cup preview is up On both those platforms right now as well with dr ed fang enjoy that game tonight Watching team usa taking on vietnam enjoy all the baseball Have a fantastic weekend back with you once again monday to talk more women's world cup with ed Get his initial takeaways and talk about the us's next game This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network