 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got some fun games involving fun players on tap in week number seven That means it is a prime time to check out the player prop market over at Fandall sportsbook to do so for today We're bringing on JJ Zachary's and of late round calm to pick his brain on this week's player prop market Then I'll dig in later to NASCAR and homestead for this weekend This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as mentioned by JJ Zachary So check him out on Twitter at late round QB and find his work out late round calm in the late round fantasy football podcast and JJ Surprisingly, I would say week seven got off to kind of a big bang last night with that really fun Jag Saints games So how are you doing today? I'm good. Yeah I didn't totally expect that to be as high-scoring as it was, you know with Trevor Lawrence banged up in the Saints offense you know playing like it's it's like 19 I don't even know what decade or what era the Saints offense is in clearly thinking they still have Drew Brees on their team Yeah, yeah, I mean it was it was at least you know a fun game You got a little taste and pills sprinkled in there I have a lot of Christian Kirk and season long so that was good to get that late touchdown But it was a good game overall. Yeah, when Kirk caught that ball, I thought like oh cool like, you know nice first down It's like there's nobody there. Oh, oh, no, he's still still going you for also forget how fast he like how Just good he is with the ball in his hands It's weird how different my perception of Christian Kirk with the Jags is versus Christian Kirk with the Cardinals like okay Cool, you know possession receiver. He'll get you, you know solid yardage whereas with the card is like Oh, he's like the deep guy. It's like weird like that he hasn't changed at all. It's just like that I think the I was refreshed that the game ended so well because like I was getting actively mad Watching that game with like counting the number of times Derek Carr through shorted the sticks on third down It like made me physically angry. Yeah, and here's the thing. I do want to throw out there I think that Carr clearly he's he didn't have a good game and like he's not you know He's not in the same page with his wide receivers totally and stuff But they had offensive line issues. You know like like I don't think we can just ignore How important that is not only to being able to throw the ball down the field But how it was last night against that Jags front You know it was it was an issue for them and that's part of the reason why Alvin Camara had had 17,000 receptions and I was okay with that because I had a lot of Camara and DFS So that part was fine. I just you know, maybe throw it beyond the sticks once or twice is a treat Just for funsies We're gonna dive into week seven player props here in just one second The first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We're gonna have a full preview via Tom Vecchio of the Sunday night football game between the Eagles and the Dolphins coming up Later on actually up tomorrow on the covering the spread podcast feed as well as fan dual TV plus You can find all the other podcasts on fandal TV plus the fandal YouTube page and here on the covering the spread podcast Feed if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcast or on Spotify We're gonna get Rob Freeman back on with us next week talk about the world series So Rob not with us this week, but we'll back with us hopefully next week to break down the world series We're gonna talk about the fun games in a bit JJ talk about the player props we can get there But first let's dive deep into the muck because we got a lot of backup quarterbacks Starting for this week two which are happening the same game the game of which I just took the over What could go wrong there? We got the the Bears Raiders game, you know, it's 37 What are you gonna do? But like we had a lot of backup quarterbacks this week So how does your process adjust when a quarterback? You know, we got a less efficient quarterback in there than the typical signal caller for a team Yeah I mean first off you have to be open that your projection in general is probably gonna be a little bit more Volatile than what you're gonna see if you have you know an every week starter where you have a decent sample on them And it depends on who the quarterback is, you know at the time of this recording We officially don't know I don't write we haven't heard yet of who's gonna start for the Raiders You know if it's gonna be a no Connell or if it's gonna be Brian Hoyer But let's say that it's a no Connell which you know, there were some some speculation that the reason why you know Hoyer is being QB to they don't want to throw rookie onto the field You know in the middle of a game where he's not getting that many reps But regardless like let's say that it's a no Connell. We don't have a big sample size on No Connell, I mean we saw him play against the Chargers But you know, it's different than someone like to Rod Taylor who could play for Daniel Jones Let's say where we have years and years of of games and a sample, you know on that quarterback But I also think it's okay to say look we're looking at projections here We can use sort of a baseline like for what we typically see from a you know non-stud Prospects rookie quarterback What have we seen traditionally from those types of players and then obviously, you know Even if we have like a small sample size we can extrapolate that small sample size to some degree That's fine and then you know at a team level more than likely in these scenarios You're gonna see more run heavy teams and more run heavy offenses than what we might otherwise see and that has a trickle down Effect and what also has a trickle down effect You mentioned you're hitting the over in that game that over under very very low for a reason, right? Right, but that part of your process is looking at these over-unders and these team totals Then that's gonna have this domino effect on how it's gonna impact the rest of of the players in that game And they're in the team in terms in terms of you know how frequently they're gonna score and such like that So, you know, I think that that all of that sort of just kind of gets thrown into this pot And then a projection gets spit out And you know, it's gonna be different. It's gonna be more volatile But there is at least still somewhat of a process involved there for sure And I think that's going to be an important thing is you don't toss those games out Maybe you can mean you can because you never have to bet anything you don't want to but like you don't have to toss those out You can account for it in a smart way that can allow you to still find potentially value again You don't have to because you don't bet anything but like, you know Accounting for those things you can still potentially find value like I have a counter for the back of quarterbacks and I liked over 37 and a half Or 37 I guess for the Bears and Raiders game So, you know, you can still find stuff You don't have to if you don't want to and it's a very important thing for this week Let's dig in out some fluid situations JJ when you look at the situations that are influx across the board Which ones are you keeping your eye on most heavily as spots that could potentially give us value as props open there? Yeah, so I think there's a few backfields this week to definitely keep an eye on one right now is Chicago's backfield Actually, Rochon Johnson still in concussion protocol I mean every day that he's not practicing seems like it's less likely that he's gonna play We talked about this backfield last week with with Deontay Foreman and How he hasn't really been a passcatcher throughout his career and that really came to fruition, you know last week Where even though there wasn't anyone else on that in that backfield aside from Darren to Nevins He still wasn't seeing you know that much work through the air He played 61% of their snaps last week He stole 63% of their running back rushes But again, he didn't have that big receiving workload and then this week if Rochon is out Let's just say he's out Travis Homer should be back for Chicago And that's really what Homer has done throughout his career is play special teams and be sort of a satellite back You know, he did that in Seattle for a long time So he's sort of this like you know satellite specialty third down back And so I would expect him to see that work and not Deontay Foreman He's a bigger threat in my opinion Homer is to Foreman than Darren to Nevin Evans was last week So keep all that in mind the Rams backfield probably the most ambiguous that I've ever seen in my entire life in a given week I have no idea how this is gonna play out I think a lot of people are making the assumption that it's gonna be Zach Evans But there's a quote from Sean McVeigh on whether running back Zach Evans is on track to start this week And his quote was I wouldn't say that so So I don't know, you know Evans is someone my model didn't love as a prospect But there are smart people out there smart evaluators who did like Zach Evans But you know, you have to win the trust of your coaching staff, especially this coaching staff Like if you look at how they've handled the running acquisition historically, it's always just been this is our guy We're gonna go with them. No one thought that Kyron Williams was gonna be a bell count in the NFL Even when he came out and entered the NFL And so now you're looking at the scenario where you have Zach Evans Royce Freeman from the practice squad You know, he's gotten some run mostly on special teams. They bring in a Miles Gaskin and a Daryl Henderson There's just a lot up in the air My money but not really my money because I wouldn't be putting that much money on this backfield this week Would be that that Royce Freeman at least sees maybe goal line work because he's like 240 pounds And Zach Evans is not necessarily that kind of guy And I don't know if they want to trust rookie in that kind of situation But there's just a lot up in the air So I think if you see lines that are optimistic, you can probably bet the under and I think Evans in particular is one that I'm not overly high on and then the last one is the bills backfield This has sort of been flying under the radar. Maybe a little bit, but you know, James Cook a couple weeks ago when they were in London Only carries the ball five times and everyone's freaking out But they only had 10 running back carries in that game. So it really wasn't that big of a deal I mean a 50% running back rush air isn't great But he was usually in that 50 to 60% range anyway since week one But what we saw last week was definitely alarming at least, you know If you have James Cook in fantasy or if you're looking to bet James Cook Latavius Murray hits season highs in snap share and running back rush air in week six There's positive game script potential this week against New England Damien Harris had that scary injury So he's not gonna play or I would assume he's not gonna play. I haven't actually officially seen I'm just making that assumption But I do think that Latavius Murray is sort of flying under the radar right now just based on his increased usage over the last couple weeks Yeah, and I think that with James Cook It was already a red flag with the red zone usage that was already a spot where it's like, okay I'm not taking James Cook touchdown bets because right he's losing work there both both to Latavius Murray But also Josh Allen and occasionally like the Ante Hardy And then you add in the fact that he's gonna lose some early down work to now like that's a double red flag So, I mean he honestly like it could be an under on rushing plus receiving kind of props for him If if folks haven't accounted for that I think that could be a situation to dig into as well Let's take a look at the yardage bets here across week number seven JJ. Where you seeing value there right now? So I'm gonna start with the chief's backfield and Isaiah Pacheco Who's basically starting to become more and more of a bell cow in that in that offense his receiving line over on Fandall is 14 and a half yards. I'm gonna hit the over here You know, he should be on the field quite a bit Especially if a positive game script hits now I understand if a positive game script hits that means they might might be running the ball more than passing it But the fact that he would be on the field and running routes is what we want first and foremost Usage has really been awesome though form over the last handful of weeks He's seen roughly 43 percent route participation over his last three Which is decent in this kind of environment this kind of offense And he's also hit this number in four of six games this year and then the Chargers their opponent this week They're 11th and adjusted target share allowed to running back So teams have funneled targets to running backs at least at a above average rate against the Chargers this year So I think Isaiah Pacheco over 14 and a half receiving yards makes a lot of sense And then the other one, this is a a draft Kings bet You know, it's on it's on Fandall as well, but there's just a better line over on on DK Christian Watson over 49 and a half receiving yards You know, he didn't get this get to this number in his first outing But that was also on a 46 percent snap share when he came back from his injury That snap share jumped to 85 percent the last time we saw the Packers. He had an 84 percent route participation He saw 24 percent target share in that game, which is awesome And that week he had the second most air yards in all football He did convert on one big play, but we know that that's what Christian Watson can do is he might hit 50 receiving yards on one Reception like it's at least possible for a player like Christian Watson And then you look at Denver their opponent. They rang dead last an EPA per drop back allowed You know, they've been horrible defensively So I think Watson hitting this number which he's hitting one of one of two games with that one game where he didn't hit He wasn't used as a number one or a starting wide receiver. Essentially. I think this is a pretty decent bet Yeah, I think that we saw a little bit of like DGF out of Jordan Love in that second game with Watson where he was just kind of like It was chuck-and-pray like fully chuck-and-pray kind of see what happens as you toss the ball down field And that's not a bad thing like that can result in like Watson's a talents enough player We doesn't need to be need to be on a deep shot because they're low percentage plays But like doesn't need to be there necessarily to work out as far as Pacheco goes I don't want to say he's icing out Jerick McKinnon, but like he's eating into Jerick McKinnon I would say I like McKinnon still getting the two-minute work and still getting some, you know third and long type work, but Pacheco's roles definitely expanded. He's played his First second and fourth highest snap rates have all come in his past three games And like he had six targets one of those so 14 and a half to me I think seems very realistic for Pacheco odd Sunday. What about touchdown bets? What you cooking up there this week? Nothing crazy like the last couple weeks of the last week, you know I ended up hitting on with crazy hits, you know Yeah, yeah, I guess it's not crazy I've nothing like Jaylen Hyatt like I had a couple weeks ago, which by the way thrown it out there I don't mind Jaylen Hyatt again this week take it with a grain of salt But you know, he did see the highest snap share and target share of his career last week. Anyway First one Pukinakua. This is again another another line shopping situation But over on DraftKings isn't any time touchdown scorer plus 185 right now Which is pretty dramatically different Fandals at like plus 145 Some books have him at like minus 120. So I mean, he's just kind of all over the place I think a lot of this really stems from the fact that last week his production was pretty poor I had four catches for 26 yards. I think a lot of people make the correlation of oh Cooper cups back Therefore Pukinakua isn't gonna be able to eat in this offense But that offense last week really good positive game script led to a lot of rushing And and Pukinakua from a peripheral standpoint still had a 33% target share in that game, you know against Arizona So now you're looking at a situation where we talked about it earlier The running backs are all up in the air Maybe they lean a little bit more on the on the pass Close to the end zone and the Steelers their opponent have been horrendous against wide receivers all season long So I like Pukinakua at plus 185 and then the other one I'm going back to Chris Godwin at plus 230 I was kind of hoping you might do this because I thought that like he was he had a really good role last week I was gonna go back to well. Yeah I mean, I feel like I'm gonna go back to the well until he scores a freaking touchdown because The number here is plus 230 over on Fandall He's one of the biggest regression candidates in football right now He has zero touchdowns despite the fact that he has a 24% target share on the season He should have two to three closer to three touchdowns based on his usage according to pro football focuses Pro football focuses expected point or just expect a touchdown model. Sorry Atlanta's been pretty average in EPA per drop back I don't see it as an overly scary matchup and at plus 230 for a good player who's seeing almost a 25% target share Who's clearly these these odds are what they are because he hasn't found the end zone yet This is a process driven play and I'm going to continue to go to Chris Godwin until he finds the end zone So the other reason this number is longer is not just the regression, but also the total is low It's a 37 and a half. This is this is, you know, maybe this is just a meeting But I also took the over on this one My my model has this total at 40.9. It's actually like pretty well clear No, the total is it's the second or third largest discrepancy between my model in the books this week and like honestly like when you think about the way these two teams mesh like Atlanta's been very good against the rush this year So may funnel for better or for worse more work to the passing game on the Atlanta side, which you know slows down the clock and Tampa Bay can't run and Atlanta's pretty good against the rush too So it's like I think we could could see a decent pass rate in this game So I Like I know it feels weird to feel good about taking the over at a total this low But like I think the total is too low person. Yeah. Yeah, is he plus is it plus 240 now, too So it did length a bit there too, and like, yeah, you know that helps it's our wins here. Like there's I'm confused as like I Don't know. I don't like the spots where I can't figure out why I'm higher than the market But like I mean clearly I'm betting it a plus two third I'd probably bet it all the way to plus 200 for Godwin this week. Yeah I I can't disagree with that like I was thinking about this before I was like, okay I kind of like this game more than the market does the Godwin Usage was there last week Even the Evans playing fine didn't like there was anything wrong with his hamstring like he played fine And I like this game. So I fully agree. I think that's a good one as well That is JJ Zacharyson make sure you check about on Twitter at late round QB You find his work at late round comment on the late round a fantasy football podcast JJ Appreciate you swinging by as always. Enjoy week number seven. We'll talk to you again next week. Thanks, Jim Alrighty once again find JJ on Twitter at late round QB and go to the late round a fantasy football podcast wherever You get your podcast. We're gonna dive into NASCAR and homestead here in just one second But first snap into action this NFL season with Fandall America's number one sports book right now new customers Get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place a $5 bet That's $200 in bonus bets when our lutes do you've been thinking about joining Fandall? There is no better time to get in on the action. The app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more so visit fandall.com and kick off the NFL season Fandall official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC first online real money Wager only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is now a dribble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot fandall calm gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or was a fandall calm slash RG in Colorado Iowa Michigan New Jersey, Ohio Pennsylvania Illinois, Tennessee and Virginia call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Arizona 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7777 or visit cc pg.org slash check netiquette 1 809 with an Indiana 1 805 2 2 4700 visit chaos gambling health comm in Kansas 1 877 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at organ Maryland 1 800 gambler net in West Virginia 1 805 2 2 4700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling help line ma org or calling 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1 877 a hope and why our text open why in New York Let's shift now and talk about some NASCAR for this weekend We've got all three series in action in the NASCAR cup Xfinity and truck series and homestead and Got something I like in all three races. Unfortunately for the cup series no outrides I'm liking for right now. I've got Kyle Larson at 23.8% to win this race But it's implied odds of 28% so can't get to Larson personally and no outrides I like there I liked a couple of bets earlier on this week The first two were William Byron plus 200 for a podium Bragg has allows key minus 125 for a top 10 Both those have since moved and they're now right in line with my model. So I'm okay backing off there the one That I do still like despite shortening is Alex bowman top 10. It was plus 200. It's now plus 170 But I'm still showing value there Bowman is 48% for me to finish inside the top 10 for Sunday's race But his implied odds are 37% so much much lower than where my model has him bowman has been top 10 and three out of six races on Larger tracks or non short tracks with at least moderate tire degradation He's at least decent at homestead. He's at the top 10 two of the past three races there and four out of five or sorry Two out of five with Hendrik motorsports there didn't race your last year due to a concussion So a smaller sample there, but he's run well on tracks with lots of tire fall off in the past So I agree with the model being higher on bowman than the market as always, you know Make sure see what the which you can get but overall plus 170 if that's the longest you can get I am in on bowman for a top 10 this weekend. That's the one bet I like in the cup series for this week I like a couple outrides in the Xfinity series and It won't be surprises if you've listened to this segment pretty regularly those guys that I like are Austin Hill and Chandler Smith Hill is nine to one at Fandall sportsbook. His implied odds are 10%. I've got him at 14% to win this race Hill has been fantastic on tracks in the tracks non short tracks with the tire fall off Being greater if you look in that bucket non short tracks higher tire fall off. He was been very good seven race sample Hill has a win in Las Vegas, but he's had a top five average running position in three races And he said five top five finishes. He finished runner-up in Darlington earlier on this fall And he finished second behind Denny Hamlin on that race and Hamlin is not in this one He was fourth in the other Darlington race last year in homestead Hill Had a fifth place average running position. He won here in the truck series back in 2019 So he can run this track really well. So I agree with the model in liking Hill I think he's a good value at nine to one for this week as mentioned the other one is Chandler Smith at 11 to one I like Smith more to finish top five. You can find that they don't have that a faddle So, you know, I've got a 50% to finish top five even money would be fair value for him there But I do think there is value in the outright a faddle sportsbook as well Smith's best track is Richmond It is a very different track than homestead, but it also does feature a ton of tire fall off and I think that's a good thing for Smith means he can handle Managing the tire throughout a race. He nearly won one of the Las Vegas races Probably should have won that race. He'll pass him with a couple laps to go. He finished fourth last week also in Vegas He had a fourth in Darlington as well. I think that Smith can handle this track type He was not great here last year in the truck series, but His average running position that race was seven. So not the worst Again, I'd prefer to bet Smith top five, but that's not an option here So 10.1 percent to win for me. He's implied odds are 8.3 percent I am very into that so Chandler Smith and Austin hill the two bets I like on the Xfinity series side of things In the truck series only one bet I like but it's one that I like Quite a bit. Uh, that is going to be christian eccus a to one to win this race over at faddle sportsbook Eccus is 19.9 to win for me. He's actually the favorite in my model But he's actually fifth in odds over at faddle sportsbook So it's a big discrepancy and as always you want to proceed with caution in those spots because sportsbooks Probably smarter than me. Um, so you want to proceed with caution, but I do get what the model is getting at here I think he's too low at eight to one Eccus has two wins in five races on tracks with at least moderate tire fall off that are not short tracks So again, the same buck you were talking about with hill before two wins for eccus there in five races Which does include the playoff race in kansas made a late pass there Probably wasn't the fastest car in that or truck in that race, but you know, still got the win It is weird to be this far off from the book, but I agree With it here. I think that christian eccus eight to one a good value He's a guy who's been good on the mile and a half tracks both last year with thorsport and this year with mackinnelly hillerman racing He's been great there going back there next year. He just announced so I think eccus is a good value eight to one to win this race It is always shaky to be that far off from the book But I agree with what the model is saying overall here So quick christian eccus eight to one to win the truck series I like awesome hill nine to one and chanler smith 11 to one to win in Externity series and then alex bowman plus 170 for a top 10 in cup That is all that we have for today and this week here on covering the spread tom vecchio We'll be with you though tomorrow morning breaking down the dolphins and the eagles game from a player prop perspective So make sure you tune in tomorrow for that also check that out on fandal tv Plus you can find this one on the fandal youtube page as well big. Thank you to our guest jj zackereason for swinging by talking player props for this week find jj on twitter at late round qb I am on twitter at jim saunas also on threads at jim dot saunas if you are over there instead Should be a fantastic weekend of football and racing and also don't forget formula one in circuity americas this week as well Have a great weekend. We'll talk to you once again monday to break down 49ers and vikings This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network