 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network a lot of blowouts across the opening round of the 2023 NFL playoffs and you know, it's a bit of a bummer But I thought all those games were still pretty entertaining despite the fact the final margins were not that close and looking ahead to the divisional round We could see something similar because a lot of large spreads on the board right now, but also it's fun teams It's fun quarterbacks and to me I can get behind that even if it's not a super super tight game looking at the spreads right now Fandall sportsbook three of the four games have spreads of six or larger I still think we'll have some fun though We're gonna break down all four games for today taking a look at what my numbers say about those four divisional round games And trying to identify but receive value for this weekend over at Fandall sportsbook welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim saw this I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research here to give my first look at the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs breaking down where is the value across this week? Over at Fandall sports will do all that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You're still here every week day Monday through Friday breaking down the NFL Getting ready for that talking some NBA the NHL of course as well all right here in this same podcast feed So go search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also find us on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus also quick shout out for our Heat check fantasy podcast myself branding a duo because we've revamped the format to get betting discussion in there We had Brandon here on the show uncovering the spread in the past. We're now gonna shift those discussions with Brandon over to the PGA Daily fantasy podcast as well. It's me and Brandon. Don't throw our favorite Windbats non-outrights and all that for each week's event. That's on the number fire daily fantasy podcast We'd every Tuesday afternoon also over on Fandall TV plus if you want Brandon's insights on betting golf Which you should pretty good week for him and myself this past week for the Sony open You can find those on the number fire daily fantasy podcast Every Tuesday afternoon you can also find that over on Fandall TV plus when it comes to the NFL playoffs You've got to win one game at a time when you bet the NFL playoffs on Fandall one game can mean a lot of wins Fandall America's number one sportsbook has all your favorite bets like the money line and spread There's all sorts of prop bets like quarterback passing yards or who will score the first touchdown plus every day There's an NFL playoff game Fandall is giving all customers a no sweat same game parlay That means you combine all your bets for a chance at a bigger payday You'll get bonus bets back if your SGP doesn't win make every moment more with Fandall an official sportsbook partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus and president select states Minimum three leg parlay required refund issued is non-controllable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt max refund $5 unless otherwise specified Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot Fandall calm Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem Call 1-800 gambler over the Fandall comm slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont call 1-800 next step or text next step to 533-42 in Arizona 188-789-7777 or the ccpg.org slash tag naked 109 with it in Indiana 105 to 240 700 for the case gambling help.com in Kansas 1877 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 100 gambler net in West Virginia or call 1-800 522 4700 in y oming Let's dig in now to all four divisional round games over at Fandall sports But can try to identify we can find some value for this week over at Fandall sports But let's begin things the Saturday afternoon game That is a Texans at the Ravens right now at Fandall sportsbook spread here is eight and a half minus 115 on the Ravens at that eight and a half and the total is 45 and a half and I would say right now a lot of places have this game nine and a half So Fandall is higher in the Texans than most sportsbook The sportsbooks are and as you know the Texans are a team I've bet a ton this year and I do see value on them right now. No shocker This is the 17th time this year My model has shown value in the Texans money line and that hasn't always gone great obviously because they were a team That had to win week 18 to make the playoffs But I do think they are a legitimately good football team and the reason I think that my numbers tend to be higher than The most is because I wait passing efficiency a lot and they've been a very efficient passing team When CJ Stroud has been out there Stroud's a point to passing net expected points per drop-back this year Lee gathers point oh seven so Stroud more than double almost triple Lee gathers in that regard and That number has been high even without tanked out. So I buy into Stroud and that's why I can feel okay Buying in the Texans even in the spot where they are a legitimate underdogs Like they should be underdogs in this game like there's no doubt about that for sure But even if they do fall behind I think Stroud moved the football against this Ravens team It's just hard for me to justify saying take the at eight and a half right now when there's leads to somewhat decent chance I can get a nine or nine and a half later on So if you like me like the Texans I'd wait There is a shot this number lengthens given how good and how fun the Ravens are and I think we'll see a lot of interest in the Raven side Throughout this week. So just based on what the market is saying right now The market says to me we are more likely to get this game to move Toward the Ravens where the spread lengthens they end to move towards the Texans So I would keep an eye on the Texans right now the money line plus three ten do show value there as well We might not get nine and a half to do something. We'll talk about here in a second But even nine is really nice. So if you like the Texans, I'd play wait and see here I think we'll get a nine at fan duel pretty soon given that there are nines nine and a half elsewhere Don't tend to see it that big of a gap in the market But I would hold off if you like the Texans to kind of see what you can get later on The key factor at play that I alluded to and why maybe this game does tighten is weather Right now the wind speed projections at baltimore are at 16 miles per hour And that's a big number and the Texans are a dome team playing outdoors That's a bigger downgrade for them than a lot of teams That's why the bet I like most in this game right now is the under at 45 and a half That's minus 115 a fandal now 45 is kind of a No man's land kind of number because it's not a key number 47 is 44 is but it's between those two numbers so It's just kind of floating there I had this number under 44 slightly under 44 and 44 is a key number So I think what we'll see here is this total will come down As people realize that wind speed projection is as high as it is So even at minus 115, I do think that the under is the right play in this game That also does give me a bit of wiggle room in case the Texans offense Does come back to earth a bit from where they've been recently So for right now my lone recommendation here for Texans versus Ravens is the under But I would keep an eye on that spread If things move toward baltimore during the week and we can get that at nine and nine and a half Then I'd be okay jumping on it and when doing so I'd spread that out Putting most of it on the spread but then some of the money line as well because I do show value there too And I think the Texans are live to win this game despite the fact. I very much respect the Ravens Again, this is all because of how efficient cj stroud and this passing offense have been So taking the under right now and then keeping tabs on the Texans plus eight and half to see if we get a better number on that later on this week Second game on saturday is the Packers at the 49ers right now fandal sportsbook It is the 49ers minus nine and a half and the total in this game is 50 And I am really excited for this game because the 49ers offense is obviously elite and the Packers defense is not And the spread here is justifiably large which correlates with an over as well But the Packers offense Should also be able to move the ball too Even if they fall behind like let's say christian mccaffrey goes nuts diva sandal goes bananas early on this game and 49ers get up early I think that the Packers will be able to move the ball in a negative game script and put some points on the board Jordan love is up to point two one passing that expected points per drop back this year and We saw what he did last week with all his guys totally healthy luke musgrave being back christian watson being back Having all those pass catchers legitimately like seven deep not even including erin jones That's a pretty good passing offense. So i'm only locked in the total in this game It's at 50 right now at fandal sportsbook I have 51.8 personally and 50 is not a key number 51 is though and i've got the number above that and we get a win on 51 If it goes to that so i actually do think the over Is the right play in this game Even with my faith in the Packers offense i have this spread at 9.4 points Which is right in line with market and big spreads correlate with higher totals so That's a point in our favor I think both sides as mentioned should be able to score for all four quarters Regardless of who winds up getting an early lead in this game. That's a good recipe for an over Right now windsby projections in santa clara are at eight miles per hour. That's higher than usual for that stadium You'll see a lot of like five or four miles per hour out there So maybe it comes down a bit if that number were to go up I'd be a bit bummed because I don't have a ton of wiggle room on this over here personally So if it does go up, that would be a bit of a buzzkill for sure But with where it stands right now I like it. I think there is a shot that maybe that wind does go down a bit too So from a an entertainment perspective betting overs is fun So it's a fun bet, but also my model likes it too. It's not just vibe space. Like this is actually one where my model says Yeah, it's okay. You can take the over here So I'd be vigilant If it seems like we'll get 49 and a half then hold out Because that would be a better number obviously, but again 50 is not a key number Some spots are 50 and a half already some pretty sharp books are 50 and a half don't see a lot of 49 and a half But I saw that's why I'm fine taking the 50 right now I think it's more likely to see we see 50 and a half than 49 and a half I fan dual for this game. So No interest in the side here given. I've got a 9.4 points. I think the market's got this one pretty well pegged I get to just sit back and cheer for a fun game and kind of see What goes down here? So over 50 for packers versus 49ers my one bet in that game Let's shift now and talk about the two sunday games beginning with the uh The cast off bowl It is the buccaneers and the lions baker may feel versus jared golf to my favorite quarterbacks in football for better or for worse Love these two guys and excited to see them both one of them in the nsc championship game Depending on who wins this one right now fangirls sportsbook lions are six point favorites total is 48 and a half and It's very interesting because neither defense is good Both offenses can throw the football pretty efficiently both rush defenses are pretty good too So I think we're gonna see Baker mayfield and jared golf let rip a little bit and I love that I think that's going to be a very fun game That's not enough for me to bed and over though. Uh, even with this game being the lone dome game on the slate I've got the total of 47.8. It's a 48 and a half right now So if it were to get to 50 and plug an under, you know, kind of, you know Plug your nose kind of thing and take the under at that point, but I don't see that happening I don't think we'll see this total move a ton. So no action for me on the total right now I do show a bit of value in the bux money line And it's because their passing offense has been efficient The money line right now plus 220 Detroit's past defense has not been efficient And my model cares a lot about that plus the bucks are a very good team against the rush, which means the lions Game plan will be a bit different than what we've seen out of them recently They've been very ground and poundy in a good way. Like I think it's been inefficient game plan from them to be pretty run heavy That may now work in this specific matchup against the buccaneers I think they'll be fine because because they've got good passing game pieces They're pretty healthy right now It's sam la porta getting an extra week to rest up But it is a different flavor of defense than what we've gotten for the lions recently I don't think I'm going to take the money line right now for the bucks My model has their win odds at 33.7 percent. They're implied odds of plus 220 are 31.3 percent That is an edge for sure But it's not a huge one and I bet we see more interest in Detroit here than Tampa Bay looking at earlier I don't look at Ticket spreads and stuff like that because I don't want that to influence my betting because like it doesn't actually influence the handicap at all Like what the public is doing does not change what these two offenses and two defense will do So I don't really care typically what the ticket count looks like but in this spot where I've got slim value I'm okay looking at it because it can potentially tell me If I'll get a better number on the bucks later on right now at fandals sports But 82 the money on the spread is on the lions at minus six So that to me says I'm more likely to get a better number on the bucks later on this week And if I like let's say that doesn't happen like let's say the buck short into plus 200 It wasn't a big value for me to begin with there's not a ton of fomo for me with the money line so If it were to lengthen that out a bit more then I could change my mind There is a reason that my model shows value in this game But for right now I am okay standing pat just to kind of enjoying this game and getting Props on it later and just watching my two large adult sons jared golf and banker made to hopefully Rip a lot of efficient passes in this game. So no bet for me for bucking years versus lions Final game of sunday is the chiefs at the bills And you couldn't finish things off on a better note and then that right now fandals sports book bills are two and a half point favorites minus 122 on the two and a half there so Effectively kind of three the total is a 46 and a half for this game very interesting game because the chief's offense finally Showed life last week against the dolphins patrick mahomes in that game Had his most efficient passing offense game since week 12 in terms of passing that expected points per drop back It was also his fifth best game of the entire year By passing at n e p per drop back and that came in Uh pretty high wins against a defense that was very banged up But you know still has some talent leads in the secondary and the bills defense is banged up too They're gonna be down basically backups at all three Linebacker positions and I think that's why this number is a two and a half this game went up pretty early last night because the bills were Initially putting a beat down the Steelers didn't wind up that way as much but like Fandal opened it two and a half and then quickly got back to three very short window was two and a half and then three But as the game went along and went back to two and a half as more and more players for the bills went down with injury So I do show value in the two and a half right now and the bill's money line at minus 148 But the two and a half is minus 122. That's a pretty hefty tax to pay on a team That is super banged up. It's basically three and i'm kind of wary to lay that right now I don't show a lot of value there So you could go with the money line again It's minus 148 the implied odds at minus 148 or 59.7 percent. I've got them about 60 percent So at least some edge in the money line, you could go with the bill's money line if you wanted to But I also don't know how this line will move during the week given all the bills injuries I think that'll be a pretty major talking point I'm also currently assuming gave Davis is in and it would be a slight downgrade For the offense if he can't go not a big downgrade because gave is not great But he's a very good run blocker and he does have a vertical threat It does add a vertical threat to this offense So In other words, I show value in the bills right now But it's pretty slim value and I can't guarantee I will show value at kickoff on sunday So I don't want to bite on minus two and a half at minus 122 If that were to get to minus 110 I would change my tune and you may say it's not a huge difference But the implied odds of minus 122 are 55 percent. There's 52.4 percent at minus 110 That actually is a huge difference between minus 110 and minus 122 So I'm going to hold off for right now. We'll see how markets move during the week Maybe I'll be able to hop in but I just don't want you right now. So Okay holding off despite the fact I do show us some value in the bills in this game Total is 46 and a half. I've got that at 44.9 wind speeds are at 10 miles per hour in buffalo for sunday nights If it gets to 47, I'd bite and take the under 47 is a key number And I'd want at least a push on that in order to take this and it would give me More than two points of edge on the under with where my model has things right now But the under right now minus 118. So if we're talking like What's more likely getting a 46 or a 47? I think it's more likely we get down to 46 or 45 and a half then getting to 47. So I keep an eye on that during the week It's another bet that could be a bet later, but it's not right now So overall across all four games. I think markets are very efficient For this week over at vandal sports, but cannot see a ton of value and honestly no spreads I want to take right now the two bets i'm locking in for what for a divisional round are Texans Ravens under 45 and a half and minus 115 and the 49ers packers over 50 and minus 110 I am going to keep a close eye on the Texans. Uh, see what that spread looks like I'd be willing to lock them in at nine Nine and a half somewhere in that range. I think it's decently likely we do get that and if we do get there I'd be okay putting a bit on the money line as well I'm monitoring the bucks money line if it gets longer than plus 220 I'd probably bite somewhere around 235 or 240 if we do see a lot of interest in The lion start the week and lengthen that Tampa Bay money line And then I bet the bills that minus two and a half if it gets to minus 110 If it goes to three or saves heavily juiced down the two and a half It's a stay away from me and then also potentially taking the under for bills and cheese if it gets up to 47 Or 47 and a half just because wind speeds 10 miles per hour Uh cheese defense is very good Bill's been a bit run heavy. So We keep an eye on the total there, but for right now the lone two bets I want to lock in for the divisional round are the Texans Ravens under 45 and a half and minus 115 And the 49ers Packers over 50 at minus 110 That's all we got here for our divisional round first look We'll have our full preview of the divisional round coming up with dr. Ed fang on Thursday and then a prop look at that game with a jj's ac recent coming up on Friday Hopefully get some props in there for myself as well For later on this week because kind of a lot more than just two bets on what should be fun or for very fun football games Before we close up for today Got to go back to your recommendations from last week here on the show and overall pretty good week For the show and that includes a sweep by dr. Ed fang you can find him on twitter at the power Bank check out his work at the power rank com Ed was on the cheese minus four and a half against the dolphins and that game was never closed The spread has never closed the cheese dominated and won that game pretty easily So got that win over the dolphins and minus four and a half Ed like the packers when it was plus seven and a half it was plus seven it adjusted to that when we recorded So he said if you get plus seven and a half take it if not, you know Was less enthusiastic about the seven of course they won outright So hopefully you got seven and a half on that one Even if not though a two and a week for ed because he had the rams plus three against the lions And they did cover their shout out to shawn mcvay for taking the field goal to make it a A one-point game versus going for the touchdown gets ed the win there So two and a week for ed if you didn't get the packers three You know if you did good calls bad all around be back with us on thursday We had jj zack recent on the show talk player props friday find jj on twitter at late round qb You find his work at late round com and the late round fantasy football podcast jj had patrick mahomes under 252 and a half passing yards of minus 114 finished with 262 Mahomes andy reed letting it rip despite the weather in that game They were not afraid of the weather and they let it go JJ had patrick mahomes plus 440 for any time touchdown and that got close honestly Mahomes did run quite a bit was very effective in doing so couldn't quite get there I think he got stopped like the one or the two at one point so He was close but no cigar on that one other two were david and joku for a touchdown at plus 180 And joku 93 yards and played very well harrison bryant had a touchdown in that game But no in joku touchdown Good call in the role for in joku just no touchdown there final one was tre palmer of over 24 and a half receiving yards of minus 114 and palmer had a six a sick 56 yard touchdown to hit the over there so one three for JJ Thought the process on the in joku and mahomes touchdowns is good Didn't get the good results, but he's been awesome in the touchdown bets all throughout this year So looking forward to getting JJ back on with us on friday We had ryan williams on yesterday to break down both those games the eagles and the bucks and stealers and bills Find a ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w ryan had a very good read on the stealers versus bills game didn't get the spread at stealers plus 10 But one pretty much everything else He had close Shakira over two and a half receptions and minus 146 Shakira had three receptions including a long touchdown pass Reception that was a win there. He had a james cook over two and a half receptions minus 102 cook had i think four in that game So win there as well ryan had dalton kinkade over three and a half receptions minus 130 finished with just three very involved early on But couldn't quite get the over there He had josh allen over one and a pass and touchdowns at plus 112 Allen had three and had two in like the first five minutes it felt like to knocks and kinkade so win there as well uh ryan had jalen ward over 34 and a half rushing yards minus 110 warren had 38 rushing yards So good call there. He had george pickens to get four plus receptions of plus 102 Pickens had five for 50 i believe almost had another one too So a win there and then the long shot for ryan was mink if it's patrick to get an interception That was plus 750 no picks for josh allen allen kept things pretty contained So overall good read for ryan on the bills versus stealers game bucks versus eagles did not go his way Uh, that didn't go a lot of people's way given the way thing the the way that game broke down He had the eagles minus three and of course the bucks won that game outright Had the over at 43 and a half minus 105 and the eagles offense just never really clicked at all So 41 total points to the under hitting that one He had dalis goddard over five and a half receptions plus 114 goddard got banged up kind of late Finish with just four receptions. I don't think he would have gotten there regardless, but Bit of a bummer there He had holio jones for a touchdown at plus 390 jones got hurt. Uh, I left this game early So no win there He had jillan hurts and won that passing touchdowns plus 148 hertz had one passing touchdown Uh, but couldn't get a second one there. So I lost on that one. He had her shot white over 89 and a half rushing plus receiving yards a lot of chase edmonds in this game And I want to keep that in mind for next week when they faced the lions because I think rachad white unders would be pretty attractive Uh for that uh lions game rushing probably rushing primarily more so than rushing plus receiving So rachad white under rushing next week is one that'll have my radar for sure I want to see where that number opens up Also rachad white over 21 and a half receiving yards plus minus 110 I think white had like three or so all pulled. Uh, so a loss there Ryan and chris godwin six plus receptions of plus 110 godwin not super involved in this game They got a lot to david more k-dot and etc etc The problem was they didn't get k-dot in a touchdown at plus 470 That was one that ryan liked to 89 yards So it's similar to the enjoku one with jj good process in terms of nailing the roll I just couldn't quite get the touchdown Froton there and the final one was jillan hurts over 40 and a half rushing yards Uh, he had one rush for five yards If you're wondering why the eagles offense didn't operate well last night Maybe use your very effective quarterback in the ground game, but they didn't do that So, uh, rough one in the second half there, but We'll get ryan back on the show next week probably talking some futures entering, uh, or some other stuff entering the conference championship games Our guest for talk epl matric 21 was austin cast you can find him on twitter at austin cast find his work over at fandal research Clean sweep for austin as well. He had the chelsea money line at minus 170 and chelsea won this game 1-0 Because col Palmer scored col Palmer Was plus 120 to score or assist austin like that one as well It's a little double that there with the palmer goal at plus 120 the chelsea money line minus 170 working in tandem there Other bat for austin was man united over one and a half goals a minus 158 Then a two-two draw which means they got over one and a half goals So clean sweep for austin two bets working well on tandem together Find him on twitter at austin cast so they'll austin back in the show Later on this week to finish up match week 21 And clean sleep for austin clean sleep for ed clean sleep for me as well four and a week a second consecutive four and a week here for Look ahead shows now 11 and one across the past three weeks So feeling pretty good best stretch event if I've had my entire life recommendations from me With the texas plus two and a half and their money line at plus 124 It didn't really move in my favor a lot until the very end of the week We saw some late movement in the texas close to one and a half that money line I think was 116 or so at the end And like it was it was a combination of betting on regression for joe flacco betting on cj stroud being a dude and that all worked out pretty well So like the texas there felt good about the process and good about the results obviously had the bucks last night plus two and a half and plus 126 is this moved against me even though a jay brawl got ruled out and I was confused by that talked about the ride yesterday Why I was like I think my process was good here, but the markets to moved against me Obviously the results were good and that's a matters But I was a bit annoyed with the way the market moved throughout the week kind of made me feel like a fish for the for that bet but hey, uh The money spends the same regardless didn't get the best number which I wish we had but Regardless it is a win no matter what I had the bill stealers over 35 and a half minus 105 Those bets were honored at fandals sportsbook. Uh, despite the fact that the game was moved It was 33 and a half on sunday morning and then went back up to around 38 or so I believe once it was shifted To monday still like the over there honestly even when it was on Up at 38 and a half. I had this total I think at 42 Or so and that game went well over the 48 total points in that game so easy win there And I think it would have been Fine even if it held on sunday morning honestly just based on the fact that both these teams were in the football and stuff like that Although honestly, like I don't think they could have played the game sunday regardless so Felt good about that one and finally had the packers plus seven and a half minus 118 against the cowboys moved to seven So good movement my favor obviously great results with the packers winning that game outright so on a bit of a year only two bets this week out those two totals so Kind of a bummer, but I don't want to force bad bets especially ones I think could move the other way throughout the week so keep tabs on those other ones and hopefully we can get uh to Some more action, but for right now just sticking with those two totals And we'll see if we can keep the good vibes rolling here on the podcast That's all we got here for today on covering the spread back once again tomorrow with breakdowns in md and hl action Of course pga podcasts on the number fire daily fantasy podcast later on today too if you want to bet The american express and then uh, we have our division around Full preview thursday and prop betting on friday all right here in the covering the spread podcast feed If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on apple podcasts or spotify We appreciate those of you who have done so already make sure to check us out on fandall tv plus and the fandall youtube page If you got any questions for me I am on twitter at gymsonus you can follow me on threads at gym dots on this and you can find fandall research on twitter At fandall research want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across tuesday We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network