 Today's title is National Death Sealing Ready to Collapse. There's a term that we use often, and that term is full faith and credit of the United States government. It impacts all areas of our life, what backs up our money back in the day. It was the gold standard that backed up our dollar, not any longer. Now it's the full faith and credit of the United States government. So what does that mean? It means it's based on trust and reputation. And right now it's taking place in Congress. The debate about whether to pass the death ceiling or not is eroding faith and reputation of the United States government. With me today is my esteemed co-host, Mr. J. Fidel, and certainly our esteemed guest, Chuck Crumpton. Also a think tech host on many, many other shows. Thank you, Chuck for attending, and thank you, Jay, for being here. Jay, let's go to you on this. You know, Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, has said multiple times in various news organizations and at the podium that we should not be going down this road of whether or not the death ceiling should be renewed. She said, put that off to one part of the desk and talk about budget issues that you don't like on the other side of the desk, but don't intermix the two. Where are we on this, Jay? And why are we doing this? Who's we? Well, apparently Congress, that would be MAGA GOP and the GOP because President Biden has come out very, very, very clearly on this, saying that we should not even talk about whether or not we do not extend our national death ceiling. So we means the GOP. He said at the beginning he said he didn't want to mix them, but now he's mixing them. He's engaging in negotiation on that very point. He's not, you know, he's not being absolute about it at all. I would have preferred that he be absolute. And that's a mistake, I think, a negotiating mistake. He's not sticking to his guns, where the GOP is sticking to its guns, and Trump is running the show. I mean, one day you see Trump in a tweet, next day you see exactly the same language coming from the quote, leadership end quote, in the House, Kevin McCarthy, saying exactly what Trump said the day before. They are under instructions not to capitulate on anything, and all their people are circling the wagons on that, and they're not about to give up. It's one of their macho points. You know, we did see Donald Trump at the CNN town hall meeting explicitly stating that it probably would be okay for the U.S. to default on its debt. Although when he was president, he didn't think it was a good idea, and his rationale for that was, well, I'm not president now. But he definitely, I thought, endorsed the idea of default. Are we on a crash collision over the cliff on this? Because the MAGA GOP wants to see the debt not be renewed? Let me give you some thoughts on that. That's what he said, and that's what they say. And he doesn't care, okay? Now, maybe that's a negotiating ploy. I suppose there's a fair chance it's a negotiating ploy. But here we are on the cliff, and sometimes negotiating ploys get you right over the cliff. I don't see, for example, a strategy where he is able to pull back all his MAGA people at the last moment. He may not be able to do it. Some of them may say, no, no, I'm going to listen to what Trump said to me last week, okay? And there we go over the cliff. So it's a possibility. I think I want to mention to him is that I really think that Biden is not being good negotiator on it. It should be one single strong voice saying, no, we'll get to the budget later. That's what it should be. Instead, as we have discussed, he's actually negotiating. So you get this mixed message or a mush message, I would say. The other thing he's been saying is, and this is, you know, very troubling is, I'm not going to do the 14th Amendment, you know, full faith and credit clause. I'm not confident of that. It takes too long. I'm not sure of it. I'm not going to do it. Okay. And that is, according to some legal analysts, his best card. Put an end to this. Larry Tribe said that. And yesterday on one of our shows, so did Avi Soyfer say that. There's a lot of people saying that, including constitutional lawyers who really have a good sense of it. But Biden has given that point away. Not only has he said he won't do it, but in saying he won't do it, he's changing the calculus of the quote negotiations. Great point. My question is, we knew this day was coming. We knew that the house that flipped and it flipped because of the MAGA GOP. So the question is, why didn't the Biden administration prepare for this moment and further test out a research, the 14th Amendment clause, which gave the president most likely the authority to renew the debt. Why was there no preparation on that point? You don't know that there was no preparation. What troubles me about it is he says, oh, it's not sure. It'll take too long and all that. So if you had a choice, if you were weighing and balancing the options and possibilities, okay, what would you rather have going over the cliff with all of what that means? And I'm sure, you know, you will ask Kentucky and me about what that means. Or going to the Supreme Court. But in the meantime, being able to preserve the full faith and credit of the country. So which one do you want? I don't understand why he's so afraid of taking that road. Because the Supreme Court is not likely to kill the country, you know, even if they got all kinds of other problems. And, you know, the bottom line is that one of them involves less risk and one of them is a good negotiating tactic and the other one isn't. So I suppose they did research, but maybe they need some really good lawyers like Larry Tribe and Avi Soyfer and Chuck Crumpton to help them out on this. Well, let's go to Chuck Crumpton. Thank you, Jay. Mr. Crumpton, what's your read on all this? I know that's a very generic question, but, you know, we've been watching this slow train wreck now for well over two weeks and we're not going anywhere with it. And the question is, what's your read on it? Well, first Jay has spawned on a couple of his central points as usual. One is horrible negotiating tactic for Biden and the Democrats. If he even included the Democrats with him, it's pretty much one person negotiations at this point. They have no plan B. If plan B have been the 14th Amendment and they said, okay, you guys want to threaten to default us? We're going to play the 14th Amendment card. Let's see who wins. Then at least you've got each side coming in with a plan B. But Biden has no plan B. He's already cave on whether he is or is not going to negotiate the budget together with the debt ceiling as conditions of the budget ceiling. All that does to the person on the other side, particularly if they're incentivized and inflamed by MAGA GOP extremists, is to say, hey, we got this. Let's go for everything. We're not giving anything up until the very, very, very last minute. If then, because plan B for the Republicans is default on your watch. Biden will blame you. Does President Biden allow this go to the last minute? And thereby really damaging the world's faith in the United States government for faith and credit? Does he go to the very edge of the cliff? Or does he say enough, enough, settle up three days in advance? It's going to depend on what's on the table. I mean, so far, he's drawn no lines in the sand, which gives McCarthy the complete discretion to say, our land in the sand is no, we're not going to talk about revenue. We're not going to talk about taxes at all or tax increase. We've got five or six bargaining points here that we're not going to give up until you concede it on all of these. We're not done negotiating. He thinks that they can bargain with somebody who says, give us our five or six points. And then we have a deal. It's crazy. Yeah, I want to go to a point J made that is, you know, Donald Trump tweets something or says something at a town hall meeting. And, you know, the next day you see Kevin McCarthy parading that back almost word for word. Are we now dealing with a group in the House of Representatives, which I would normally say they're acting like anarchists. They want to see a calamity with our debt structure. They want to see things blow up. So there's only one place and one person to blame. And that's Joe Biden, thereby making them non-electable for the second term. Are we dealing with something that extreme? Worse, worse, more extreme than that. Matt Gaetz came out and said it today. It's all about wealth enhancement and preservation for that poor donor group that is the key to the GOP vision of what its political power depends on and therefore the interest that they're going to serve above all others. So what we're saying is if even if McCarthy comes up with a deal with the Democrats on an agreement to extend the debt ceiling and then whittle away some of the spending that was projected, that may not be enough because they need the other votes from the MAGA GOP. The controlling group in the GOP right now, it might be called the GOP equivalent of wealth, white oriented clan elitism. Oh, you heard it here. You sure did. You sure did. And that's a proud moment to hear. Wow. Jay, he kind of knocked me off my chair on that one. Could you come in and bail me out on this? Your thoughts on what Chuck just said, are we dealing with anarchists that want to see the federal government blow up? And they don't care the ramifications of not paying for our treasury bills to foreign countries, to U.S. citizens, not paying the U.S. military, not paying those on Social Security or Medicare or Medicaid. What other kind of things are we going to see if the debt ceiling is not extended? Yeah, let me add one point to your discussion with Chuck and that's this. Even if Trump says okay to a deal, which that's another possibility, others may not. I mentioned that before. And even if Trump says no to a deal, I don't think Kevin McCarthy or his friends will agree to the deal. So in a funny way, logically, Trump controls this. Okay, but it could be a surprise even to him. Let's look at, let's say that he is in control. Let's say it's the same individual who organized the riot on January 6. Let's say it's the same individual who, from a fiscal and tax point of view, effectively brought the country down in January of 2017 with his quote, tax reform act, which served the 1% and hurt the 99%. Let's assume that. Trump is an anarchist, just as you said. And what is the step transaction involved in that? Let's say just for a moment that the January 6 insurrection was successful. What would have happened? Did Trump have a plan on what to do if it was successful? That if it demolished the government, that there was no transition, that there was no government, just a mess in the Capitol building with everybody running? What would it have meant? Well, A, he would have had a claim to the presidency, but B, he would have presided over a destroyed democracy. That's basically what would have happened. And the economy would have fallen in the sink, and it would have been a 10-point mess. And that's the step transaction of not only an anarchist, but an autocrat. First you make a mess, which is clearly what he was trying to do on January 6. And then you step in and you say, I alone can fix it. And you rebuild the country the way you want. And have lots of options. The more you have destroyed things, the more options you have in recreating them the way you want. And I just for one, I believe that that in the back of his cortical vortex is what he had in mind. Destroy the country and then come back and quote, fix it in his own way. What's the difference? If we go off the cliff now, and we have huge, where Biden projected eight million jobs would be lost, a lot of economists are saying the economy would crash. A lot of people are saying the world economy would crash. Our relationships, our reserve currency, our global leadership, even though it's declined, would crash. Everything would crash and then Trump would step in and he alone would fix it. I think that's what dwells in the back of his brain. And so there is a plan B for him. Okay, well, what you're painting is really a very clear picture to Joe Biden, President Biden, that he better not give up the 14th Amendment option. That he said, I've had a change of heart and I've had a change of mind. I am going to implement 14th Amendment to avoid this blow-up, this complete explosion of our economy and the world's economy. Doesn't that work for him? Tim, pick up the phone, man. Pick up the phone and call him and tell him this. He should understand this. It's okay for you to pick up the phone at the same time, Chuck. Why doesn't Biden understand obvious negotiating strategies here? Why doesn't he understand the risks? Because if it goes off the side, either by design or by mistake, we are going to be in trouble. It's the same argument we used during Donald Trump's reign. And that is, where was his advisers to say, knock it off? Where are Biden's advisers saying, knock it off? Get, you are taking this too close to the edge. Where are those guys? Let the record reflect that the answer was silence. Do you know it? Chuck, Jay has signed off temporarily with silence. Same question to you. I mean, Joe Biden has his economic financial advisers. Where are they telling him to get tough or not? Obviously he's not tough. And when are they going to advise them to get serious about this and don't block off or throw in the waste paper basket? What's the option of the 14th Amendment? It was a great question because last week, before he took off for a limited appearance at G7, Biden deputized three people who are very well qualified to negotiate on core budget issues that could be sufficiently limited to enable raising of the debt ceiling to be connected with some adjustments on budget issues. Although that's a bad strategy, I agree completely with Jay. Bad idea from the beginning. Draw the line in the sand, stay there and push him to it. Because then there's no doubt in anybody's mind who caused this default and what his consequences are. We'll see those and we'll see those apparently. But then he came rushing back from G7, scheduled the meetings himself one-on-one with McCarthy, completely undercut any authority and any expertise. You don't deputize a key negotiating team and entrust them. And within less than 72 hours, you're back taking it over by yourself when you haven't done a very good job setting it up for them in the first. Well, that's a great point. In fact, that's a real amateur move. Horrible negotiating factor. Well, the other really bad aspect is this guy is no more, no less than the Speaker of the House. Okay, so you have him sitting together with the President of the United States. What's wrong with that picture? Those are not the proper individuals to be negotiating anyway. It should be at the same level. And if somebody is going to meet with McCarthy, it should be the Democratic leader, so to speak, of the House. But it's not. Jay is cocktailist because Ronald Reagan and Tip O'Neill used to go out to Irishman, used to go out for a nice Irish whiskey now in them. And they got a lot of things hammered out. But you're right. In this environment, they're not getting anything accomplished. And I agree with Chuck. My God, he's undercut those three deputized negotiators right off at the ankles. Schumer is the guy who got through Biden's economic packages. That's not Biden's work. But Schumer... Yeah, that's a good point. So, you know, Jay, to try to figure out which of these options is going to surface, which of these rows the country will travel down very hard because you have pathological people in a negotiation. I'm sure in your experience, Chuck, in mediating and arbitrating and negotiating, you have found that there are some people who are pathological and you have to deal with them differently. You know, that's the human condition, if you will. You have to deal with them differently if you want to get to first base. And I don't see that kind of consciousness in Biden. He seems to be willing to capitulate before he even starts. And the problem is that, you know, if this settles, it's not going to be in terms of your life. If this settles, there will be no tax increase, no additional revenue, and we will be cutting social programs like crazy. And that's exactly what the Republicans want. You saw the Heather Cox Richardson article this morning. She lays it out, but she isn't the only one laying it out. You know, the mechanics behind this very odd, quote, negotiation. And also, you know, the reason that the GOP wants to do this, it's wanted to do this since Trump first came on the scene. And finally, you know, what exactly are the prospects if it goes over the side? Is Biden right to say eight million jobs will be lost? Is he right to say the economy will crash and burn? Because that would affect everyone, everyone. And, you know, at that point, you can say, oh, the voters will be mad. Well, the country will be in smithereens economically. I don't know if angry voters really count in that circumstance. This is out of a bad movie out of Hollywood. Well, and remember, there's always the unseen consequences of things we have no control of that will just snowball if default occurs. There's things that we haven't even imagined that would happen. And that's the part that, you know, that's the part where now the world says, what are we going to do about it? Speaking of the world, Chuck, to what degree will China or Russia take advantage of our financial instability or inability to make commitments to the world that our debt is sound and it's backed by the full faith of our government? Or are they doing something already and we just don't know about it? Yeah, they already have. The U.S. government in particular has tightened the news of economic and geopolitical control over a more than two dozen countries in which it's gained a very, very high level of economic control and dominance. It's worked outside deals with Russia without providing direct military aid to Russia to have sufficient economic resources and stability to be able to continue barrages of attacks on clearly civilian areas of the Ukraine. Where do we go from there? Where do we go from there? I want to offer some thoughts on opportunism, if you will. Let's assume we go over the cliff. Who knows what the probabilities are, but let's assume we do. Let's assume we have that unemployment. Let's assume that the world sees the U.S. dollar as no longer qualifying for the reserve currency. And let's assume, and I think this is an easy assumption, that both China and Russia are opportunistic. So they see chaos at every level in the United States. What do they do? What prizes do they want to take? What do they take from under the Christmas tree? Okay, so clearly Taiwan is a big gift under the Christmas tree. And if the world, if the United States were in chaos, this would be a good reason for Xi to go after Taiwan right now, right now. Because what are we going to do? Do we have national will? Do we have national scope, purpose, morality, ethics? No, we don't. And the chances are fairly good that we wouldn't know what to do if he took Taiwan, okay? The other side is Russia, you know, the other big villain in the world today. And so now remember he has an ongoing relationship with Trump. He did a lot to elect Trump in 2016. He tried in 2020. He has been Trump's friend all along. And Trump has protected that relationship in every way he could, including by bringing down American intelligence. And so what would Putin do? What's under his Christmas tree? Well, of course he wants Ukraine. And in chaos, you know, the United States would not be able to maintain its position with regard to the EU and NATO or funding or even just political rhetoric to support Ukraine. And what would he do? That would encourage him until he said he can be encouraged. I mean, he's got a lot of problems, that's for sure. But he would take dramatic steps if he could, when he could, to take advantage. So I think we will be, as you suggest him, in a land of opportunism if we go over the side. What does our allies in Europe do when no longer the US dollar is the standard to flee to or the safety haven of treasuries and bonds? What do they do? And to what extent do you see Europe adversely impacted by our inability to extend the debt? Before we even get to that, I think what Jay's talking about is really a two-step process. The first thing they've already started doing. They will do everything in their power to make sure Trump is the next president. He will give them Taiwan and Ukraine. And who knows what else? Because he's their boy. He is in their pocket. They service his needs. He's a purely individual narcissist. His only objective is to obtain, exclusivize, and wield power at the expense of others. And anybody who helps him do that, loyally to him, as Russia and China have, is with him. That's what we're seeing. Well, I feel like Jay sometimes, after the end of the show, that it may be time to suck my head in some cold water. But we've run out of time, so I want to go around the table. First off, I'll combine the questions. And that is, do you predict that we will avert the debt crisis? And your last thoughts on the topic, Jay, to you. You know, I hate to be nostalgic, Tim, but you and I have been talking about Trump and his effect on the country and the world for how long has it been since 2016? That's my goodness. And, you know, we have often said we are at an inflection point. Sometimes, you know, it loses the power of those words to say we are at an inflection point. But clearly now we are at an inflection point. There will be others. There will be others. But for now we are again at an inflection point. And the question is whether Joe Biden has the moxie, has the ability, has the staff to deal with this negotiation. Because, you know, it doesn't take a genius to figure out he's on the wrong path here. And Trump is outflanking him. So we're at an inflection point which we very well may lose. And we don't know what's at the bottom of that cliff. So we've got to stay tuned. We've got to do more of this analysis and discussion. We kind of keep reading Heather Cox Richardson and hearing what Larry Tribe has to say. But, you know, we have declined as a country since Trump. And we face the very great risk of declining much further and soon. Thank you, Jay. Chuck, question to you. Do we avert this crisis in your last thoughts, please? I think the question is going to be, will Joe Biden concede enough for Kevin McCarthy to have the vote to make a deal that will raise the debt ceiling in return for all those concessions possible? That's going to be the decisive question. Let me add one more point. And that is, for years, the world has seen us decline. I'm thinking of the article in the Irish Times where the writer said, if you want to have a feeling toward the United States, have pity. And he was right in the sense that not only was that appropriate at the moment he wrote the article a couple of years ago, but maybe when Trump was in office. But it's even more appropriate now. We've lost global leadership. We are an object worthy of pity. Our government, our democracy, which we have tried to sell everywhere, doesn't work. Can we come back? And it doesn't look really good right now. All right, we'll leave it there. Jay, you have the last word. I'd like to thank you, Jay Fidel, and our esteemed guest, Chuck Crumpton, for joining us on this topic today. Won't you join us next week to quote Walter Cronkite? That's the way it is. I'm Tim Apachele, your host. We'll see you next week. Until then, aloha. Mahalo.