 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We finally saw some offense across the NFL once again in week number eight and hopefully that carries over into Monday night Football we get the Bengals at the Browns and a pretty interesting game on tap Happy Halloween to all of you out there listening We're gonna break down that game from a betting perspective and let you know where we are seeing value right now Over at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sannis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again by Ryan Williams Check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan we're talking about Bengals at Browns but first of all happy Halloween to you. How you doing today? Oh happy Halloween to you too, sir It's funny. It's fun when these holidays fall on a football day So I can have an excuse not to really partake. I mean we've already you know Thanksgiving with the family has already been taken over by football We got Christmas football this year and then Halloween as well, too So oh Christmas football bummer like that's the one where I'm like, I don't really want to do this right now Halloween I can do Thanksgiving totally good, but like Christmas We'll figure that out later on but I think that the Halloween football is kind of fun because The the Bengals and Browns kind of look like jack-o-lanterns like they kind of fit the vibe We're looking for tonight and we could see some scary football because no Jamar Chase No, David and joku for tonight for either team that could make things a bit ugly offensive It'll break down the implications of those two absences and what it means made betting perspective later on But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We'll have our week nine whoo that's weird to say week nine NFL preview podcast the first look podcast coming up Tuesday I'll break down that potentially talk some world series as well We got our college football show coming Wednesday And then Ryan is back with me Thursday the week nine preview and then prop bets on Friday with JJ Zachary's and all those right here in the covering the spread podcast feed and up on the Fandal YouTube page so make sure you're subscribed wherever you prefer to watch and consume the podcast NBA season is underway Now it's the perfect time to download Fandal America's number one sports book because right now new customers get a no sweat first bet Oh to $1,000 that's up to $1,000 back and free bets if your first bet doesn't win Fandal is all your favorite bets from the money line to point spread to player props You can even combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay Plus with live betting You'll get updated odds on games that have already started the Fandal sports book app is safe secure and super easy to use So download Fandal today to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 make every moment more this season with Fandal official sports book partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states First online real money wager only refund issued is not withdrawal with free bets that expired 14 days Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook. Fandal calm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit a fandal calm Slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step or Texan exceptify 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1809 with it in Kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or visit KS gambling health comm in Louisiana 1877 770 stop in New York 1877 8 home and wire text open Y in Tennessee call the red line at 1 800 8 8 9 9 7 8 9 or Wyoming 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in West Virginia 1 800 gambler dot net now Ryan Let's turn our attention now to the Bengals at the Browns. We'll talk about the traditional markets here in just one second I want your overall view of this game. What are the key things standing out to you? What do you look at this game from a top-down perspective? Yeah, so I mean, let's start off on the Cincinnati side. You already addressed it I mean elephant in the room is how borough is gonna play without Jamar Chase This is a team that has kind of struggled even with Jamar Chase being there Against his Browns team skeptic Kevin Stafansky has been able to dial up things and really has had the numbers So, I mean, there are paths, right? You we hope that Joe Mixon can get involved here Against this Cleveland defense. We hope that you know, they implement some things with Tyler Boyd T Higgins hating hers like they still have pieces But I am interested in that and then on the other side. I know we'll talk about it But it's like outside of the Cleveland run game. This Offense has not been able to get anything going so they really You know if this becomes like hey the Bengals don't have Jamar Chase, but they're still able to put up points like I'd do I just don't see how Cleveland can stay in this game now You know, this is a divisional matchup where things happen all the time. I think they do need to feed Nick Chubb I think they do need to feed Kareem Hunt who's on the trading box possibly could be one of his last games With this team, but without David and Joku there on the other side as well, too I think that you know, that's been you know, Jacobi Brissette's kind of bread-and-brother security blanket there Similar to the other side Jamar Chase is a security blanket. So this is one where you know All things considered I would like betting the over in this game because of the pieces and The other side and how these games have gone in the past, but without those two key pieces for either team I am trying to lean or come trying to convince myself to lean the under here It is an island game Monday night football. I know people will steam it up But you know, that's kind of where my heads at right now Yeah, I think that I would have liked the over in this game had enough and for all the injuries But once you take out explosive players like and Joku's an explosive player I put him in that bucket as well You take away two guys and that's a good way to get to an over is having chunk gains So there's longer gains to get yourself there and I think taking that both Chase and and Joku out Really does impact the odds we wind up getting that kind of a game now the Bengals three and a half point favorites here The total as you mentioned is 45 and a half and I think for me The chase injury is extra disappointing because the Bengals had hit their stride They had these issues earlier on this year where their offense was Just pretty stagnant and the past couple of weeks they changed things up They were they had become a shotgun offense and I thought they had figured things out You look at their like early down efficiency relative to expectation Compared to their opponent just their passing efficiency and early downs. They were point two two above expectation Honourly downs in their game against New Orleans point five oh above expectation against Atlanta. So they were just torching people now you take tomorrow chase out of equation and I think for me that does lower my enthusiasm around the Bengals because Part of the reason that they were struggling earlier on is T Higgins being banged up and now you take out one of those guys and again It's like okay Well, but I think that they're better equipped to handle it now because their offense is less segmented where you know They're they're not signaling what they're to do by being under center versus shotgun. There's been shotgun all the time. So I Did lower the Bengals in my numbers with Jamar Chase being out because I talked on Tuesday about how I wanted to bet the Bengals money line It was minus 180 at that time it had gotten to minus 196 It is now back to minus 178 as a result of the chase injury and some other stuff My numbers after accounting for Jamar Chase being out have their win odds at sixty five point seven percent Whereas an implied odds are sixty four percent So there is still a slight edge on the Bengals and minus 178 But it's not big enough where I bet it now like I have this exact number minus I have minus 180 so it's actually a bit worse than this right now I have minus 180 I Would not bet it now if I hadn't already I still have a slight edge on the the Bengals The Bengals money line here, but I wouldn't bet it personally. I think I had a better edge earlier on before the chase injuries now So to me Ryan, I'm standing pat in the traditional markets holding on that money line and not adding anything on there What about you? Where are you at with the with the spread or the money line here? Given the injuries on both sides. Yes, so this the spread is funny because you know We see an open at two and a half here for the Cincinnati Bengals There are some places that still have it at three Fandall sportsbook. We have it at three and a half So just really baiting you to kind of take that number And I mean it the Bengals side was the slam dunk to me When Jamar Chase being healthy now that he's out I'm still interested in taking the Bengals here at the three and a half I know it's on the road. They have been good against the spread against this team 11 and 3 against the spread versus the Cleveland Browns in the past 14 games, but That's been when the Cleveland Browns have been favored, you know, we see Joe Burrow here as a favorite without Jamar Chase It feels a little trappy But again, you know Jacoby Bressette on the other side and maybe Nick Chubb gets going But you know, I think this this defense we've talked about the Bengals a lot on this podcast uncovering the spread They control their own destiny here and a lot of people have written them off and they have caught their stride And you see the way that T Higgins and Tyler board are playing and these are you know These are the two and three but these guys could be one and two on a couple of these NFL rosters, right? So I know that Jamar Chase sucks and and you know, it'll be one of those things hindsight's 2020 If the Bengals don't cover this three and a half you'd be looking at it like oh that Jamar Chase was needed Um, and if they do it'll be like, yep, they still had weapons enough to make this happen So I'm still going to lean the three and a half Cleveland's offense has been so anemic They haven't shown me anything uh to want to put my hard earned dollars on them quite yet So that's why I'm that's why I'm looking at right now Yeah, I think that if it weren't for the strides They had made the past couple of weeks where they were able to kind of make some systemic changes to their offense If they hadn't done that I would probably be I'd probably lower in the Bengals than I am right now But I think given that we have seen that improvements I'm okay feeling pretty okay about them and um And you know being not feeling super super skittish about the fact that I have that money line Beth earlier on this week on the Bengals side. Let's stop at the player props here Let's begin on the Bengals side. No Jamar Chase here. Obviously. He is a massive cog in their offense Any value standing out to you in on the Bengals side of things whether it be as a result of the chase injury or not Yeah, I mean the the receiving props when you're looking at them. I mean t. Higgins at 78 in a half feels right That's at minus 132 juice which again feels right. He's the he's the star But let's look at Tyler Boyd at minus 113 at 60 and a half I mean Tyler Boyd has been You know, he's been this weapon. He's been the kind of x-factor for Joe burrow over these past couple of weeks. You love that. He's playing out of the slot here Can't avoid those outside corners for For the Cleveland Browns and I just really like his upside in this matchup He has had some success in this matchup as well When you're going back through the years and everything that he's done against this team So like Tyler Boyd there his prop there Hayden Hurst is also interesting at 38 and a half I think that you know with without chase there and past heavy if mixing can't get it done Which you know, we've seen limited work for him limited work in the red zone or not limited They do try and give them chances. He just can't convert them But I think Hayden Hurst is also an interesting bet here who they brought in Has really kind of hit his stride as of late too. So those would be the key ones I'm taking obviously, you know, if you want to take t. Higgins just because of that number being kind of under 80 And him, you know really seeing a Significant target share that is with chase you expect it to have even more without chase But yeah, Boyd and Hurst are really the lower ones for me Yeah, so going back to the Boyd one I actually I thought when I first thought is like, okay I should take this under because I thought that 60 and a half is super high But then I dug in I was like, oh, he had three deep targets last week like They're actually using it in better ways than I thought they were when I was like when I had like this Perception of Tyler Boyd in my mind and he is a very efficient player He can't step into he can't actually earn targets when there's one fewer guy out there So I actually thought I was going to go the other side of that one But then talk myself out of it based on digging more into it. So I don't disagree with that at all Other one I wanted to mention is not actually posted yet I would assume it would be before kickoff but I want to see the Joe mix and rushing plus receiving number because He's been pretty involved in the passing game at times this year and The issue mixing has had is he's been like hideously inefficient like real bad from an efficiency perspective But I'm not sure if you can be inefficient against this Cleveland rush defense like It might be tough to be bad against them. So I don't really know which route he would take to getting it over here and the rushing plus receiving market. It could be via It could be via the pass it could be via the run because again the efficiency there But I think he could get a target bump with no jimar chase He could potentially just be efficient on the ground as well Or they could just be skew a bit more run heavy than they typically would Because they don't have that difference maker in jimar chase out at wide receiver So I want to see what that is. Uh, if I had to guess It's probably gonna open around like 90 or so Ish uh for the rushing plus receiving is rushing yardage prop is 63 and a half and it's minus 146 Not really super, uh, it's gonna be in the 80s Yeah, okay. I mean, I don't yeah, I mean I guess without chase, but I would I would imagine I mean Joe mixon getting a 30 or I guess whatever that'd be over 25 receiving yard prop. That would be pretty hefty Right. Um, I would be surprised if we if we opened it up there I would wait for them to kind of let it get steamed up. Um, I could see it around like 21 ish Um, as as an open. So, you know, you're still looking at under 90 there. That would be a phenomenal line um So yeah, I am I'm interested in that too. Yeah, I think I would if it if it winds up being 85 I think that's where I'm like, okay, definitely take give me the over I think that that's that's the tipping point for me is if if they put it at 85 I'm taking the over. I think that that's what I want to say here If they get to 90, then I'm probably just staying away. I think that that's my by view of it So he's the first thing I would check once it's up or if it's up at available books to you I would dig in there But I just I think that's the first one I want to see because I don't think he can be inefficient in this matchup. Oh, which he's been all year I think he could get a bump in passing game work with no jamar chase So I think you combine those factors together it does at least make a An over pretty viable there trying to find uh, where mixing is at some other spots and, uh 94 and a half so I guess that's a stay away. Um I that's not high enough or I'm going under but um, that's that's a little juicy But if fendle hangs a lower line and go for it just a little a little bit high for me there Let's switch sides and go to the browns here with no david in joku. You mentioned cream hunt He is potentially on the move fendle is actually proactively bumped. Yarnis johnson's touchdown props up Um, he's like plus 320 for any time touchdown kind of saying like hey in case cream hunt gets traded We're not going to get skewered so respect I get it. Um Any value for you on the brown side of things with no in joku here Yeah, I mean, I think I think donovan peoples jones is interesting. Um, his receiving line prop is is just too low for me I believe it was in the 40s last time I checked 43 and a half possibly Um, but either way, I mean this guy has been you know outside of amari cooper the next best thing for jacobi Um at the wide receiver position and then you factor out no in joku I just I'll just hammer that Because they have shown to have a rapport here Um over the season thus far. Um amari cooper at plus 170 anytime touchdown like this is the only receiver that catches touchdowns on this team He has four. I think the next closest one is is two One maybe um, it's not great for the wide receiver group that they're throwing out there So um amari cooper just smashed and then uh, I do like kareem hunt Um, all of the props. I mean if you you want to take his any time touchdown at 240 I believe it is on the fan dual sports book if you want to um Dabble in his rushing and receiving when that comes up because he's he's actually been involved in in these games in the past I'm in this divisional matchup Whether that's you know, nick chubb has put the game out of reach already with him getting a hundred yards And two touchdowns and kareem hunt have your day or whether, you know, nick chubb's been banged up and they've leaned on kareem hunt But either way we've seen this happen throughout the league thus far when Players on the move like christian mccaffrey, and i'm not saying kareem hunt is a christian mccaffrey But they're trying to showcase a piece if he's on the trading block, right? So he could just come out here, especially You know things aren't going well for nick chubb and just kind of be that guy and they could be like All right put some stuff on paper and then we'll move you, you know for a better draft pick So i'm actually do like kareem hunt to be heavily involved this week Um tonight and i'm looking at all of his props where i can Yeah, uh 53 and a half is what i see posted elsewhere for kareem hunt rushing plus receiving Um I get why it's there. I think that probably is high enough where I would be staying away Um, I want to go back to amara cooper though because you mentioned the david and joku receiving yardage prop I think that's where i'd want to go with cooper. He's a 52 and a half right now Over is minus 113 and he's had a great role this year with in joku 26.8 percent overall target share for amara cooper He has 37.9 percent of the deep targets. He's had multiple deep targets in three straight games and in uh four of the past five games As he mentioned very involved towards the red zone 29 percent share there and in joku is vacating 25.8 of the targets in the red zone as well And I'll talk about implications of that later on as well But I think that you're basically taking out the number two past catcher in this offense and amara cooper has shown you can get over 52 and a half even without Having those advantages. So I think that's the way I'd want to go personally is with the cooper over 50 53 and a half. I think it is actually now Uh, there's like 52 and a half for amari I think that's where I'd want to go here Just because I know the the baseline level of target should be very very high So to me, I think amari is the the play the main place I'd want to go now is alluding to in joku's red zone role And how active he is down there I think that that could open up some value in the touchdown market right now harrison bryant is plus 320 That's not long That is not a big number and it you may look and be like, oh, why is he that short? Like I would expect to be a bit longer than that, but Harrison bryant has shown he can be a touchdown score even in games where in joku was active Last year with that team. We know he can earn targets even when again and joku is out there Harrison bryant had six targets back in week number four He set a couple four target games battling through an injury this year And I think he's the kind of guy who could benefit pretty well from this situation So to me harrison bryant plus 320 may not seem like it's a great number right off the bat I do think that there is Merit to taking that one. So that's my favorite touchdown prop right now, ryan What are you liking in that department over at vandal love that? Yeah, that that's great I will just you know kind of take a stand on a marie cooper there for for the browns at 170 And then also tyler boyd at plus 145. I think is is definitely interesting there when you factor in, you know No chasing the red zone and how they lean and and tyler boyd is we've seen in the past He's more likely to score his touchdowns from outside of the 20 Or between the 20s. I should say Not really in the red zone green zone, but just because of chase not being there I think there gives them ample opportunities to to find in zone. So at plus 145. I'm willing to take a shot there Yeah, I think that the marie one especially is pretty interesting to me too. I think that makes a lot of sense Absolutely All right, anything else you want to say from this game ryan, are we all good here? Yeah, if you look at the game specials, I think it's interesting when you talk about, you know What joe burrows possibly gonna have to do and just you know if if mixins, you know Kind of struggles or lack of touches continue It could be the joe burrow show that kind of you know gets them to the pace where they need to be winning by four points or more plus 100 on joe burrow throwing for 250 touchdowns and Well 250 yards in two touchdowns So, you know, you're getting plus money there being able to double up whatever unit you put down on it I think is is extremely interesting And that that's me. That's mainly the one that I was that I was looking at where I was like, you know I don't know if I want to take the 300 and three, but if you do that's four that's four 20 Plus money there on that action. And you know, we've seen joe burrow be able to put up some points there So that's interesting I always like to kind of touch on those game specials because I feel like those go on notice here on the fandals sports book But they're really, you know, there's really some nice juice to some of these if you can talk yourself Into a story of the way the game's going to go Yeah, that is we have to do is you to just you know, tell a story about the way the game goes down have a A way we're both these things one a pitting and if you can talk yourself into the odds that narrative being higher Than the odds presented to you. There is a lot of value I was looking at the uh, you were talking about the burrow 303 touchdowns And I was like looking forward on the game specials tab and actually I saw jacobi resets. I was like, oh 15 to one No, I don't know if I'm gonna do that either anyway still like I know it's 15 to one But I'm not sure we're gonna get there but the the burrow one, you know that one I think does make a lot of sense Yeah, one last thing jim, uh was if you do like the over in this game at 45 and a half I think it's interesting to get both things both teams to score 20 points is uh, Juiced up in the plus money at plus 136 So if you think this can be a back and forth affair, I know people love, you know The nick chubb narrative and possibly covering here and then putting up points And we know since natty can always put up points Both of these teams are implied for, you know over 20 points in this game with the line being at where it is So if you like that number, you might as well just double dip and get that plus money on both teams scoring 20 as well You're just feeling the offensive odds from yesterday too, you know It was pretty fun to actually see some scoring once again actually see some good dfs scores for once it was uh It was good. So hopefully we'll see that continue into tonight's game That is all that we have here for the bangles at the browns kickoff coming up for tonight But once again, like I said, we have our full breakdown of week number nine coming up thursday Ryan we back with us for that talk about the best games of week nine is ferret bets over there I'll also have the first look coming up on tuesday to get both those as they are posted Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and also check out the fandal youtube page Where all these shows go up after the fact Ryan Thank you to you. Uh, good luck to you on monday football and enjoy a hopefully relaxing and profitable halloween You do the same brother and we'll catch you on thursday to talk The joyous week nine sunday sleigh I am looking forward to it check out ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w I am on twitter at jim sonnis. Thank you all for tuning in and good luck to you tonight happy halloween We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to get our first breakdown of week number nine This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network