 Hi, my name is Leon road currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis if you're new or returning a watcher to my weekly videos a warm welcome to you both and Please don't forget to like subscribe and share with your fellow trading colleagues As it helps support the channel to get views on the YouTube Anyways, let's jump into the the upcoming week and the week ahead from I guess a macro perspective and then we get down into The technicals and a bit more in-depth fundamentals. So in the week ahead, this is from trading economics It says the short holiday week in the US will be dominated by the start of the earning season a hot inflation report Which is what we were looking at and speeches from several Fed officials also monetary policy decisions in the Euro area Canada Turkey and New Zealand so we just focused on the Euro area Canada and New Zealand will be in the spotlight And then finally from a risk sentiment perspective the war in Ukraine will not leave the headlines and investors looking for any science of a breakthrough so You know from risk off I guess to turn more risk back on that if you want to get into the nitty-gritty I'll leave a link to this this page in the in the in the comment section so Getting into the technicals and fundamentals. I'm starting off as we usually do on the dollar index and the dollar index Which is a measure of dollar strength against the major currencies like the euro the yen and the pound Pretty much going again from strength to strength as expected as I pretty much been saying all year so It's just the way that we use this if you're new is to understand Dollar strength overall and then uses his confluence So for example prices pulled back into a demand zone and then you get you know some sort of bullish candle entry It's a bit more to it than that but Just from a really basic level you can look for that confluence on trading for example the dollar yen dollar Swiss if that you know pulls back to a Demand zone on those currency pairs if you're looking to trade you know The dollar go long right and this isn't me telling you what to do isn't financial advice But just basically what the analysis that I'm looking at if you're looking at going short on the dollar for me There's really nothing That I'm interested in yes, there's some levels from back in 2020 But and if you do want to take those do want to take those then There is a probably supply zone that covers all that area there And then you've got one right at the highs from March 2020 And again, if you do want to look for short trades then that one oh Pretty 100 105 would be the area to look for any kind of short trades Again, not on this pair just as a more of a confluence but fundamentally For me, I'll just wait for pullbacks on the dollar as the Fed officials are Reinforcing the message that rate hikes or hikes are heading higher. So Harker expects series of deliberate and methodical Fed hikes and Barkin says Fed could raise rates by half a point if needed. So everything you need to probably know is in their headlines and rate hikes generally have the the effect of Of appreciating a currency overall So for me the dollar is still a buy and if it's a buy for me I take again a bit of an approach that I'm not looking to you know Go long and short on the dollar or any currency pairs if I've got a fundamental bias Then I'm just looking to go long on that pair if I've got a short bias, then I'm only looking for short trades I'm looking for you know pullbacks, right? So that's pretty much what I'm looking for doesn't mean I'm gonna buy the dollar only if it comes back to you know, this demand zone Because it might not but it you know used a dollar index as confluence with maybe your dollar bars or dollar sells So for me part of these resistance is still to the upside and let's see what happens with that so Moving on to the dollar yen and understanding where we are from, you know a fundamental perspective Again, it's just about really by I'm drawing your demand zones and looking at where you want to get involved in this right? So prices did come down Last week week before into that demand zone, which was actually should have been drawn from here So it came down into that demand zone and now We have prices making higher highs higher lows I'll draw it from there from that last bearish candle there And if prices do come back down here for me That's gonna be a really nice zone to look for any buy opportunities You do have I think a bit of a supply zone not a strong one Not really a strong one. I hesitate to draw it, but it is there. It sits right on top of it, but Yeah, I'm not I'm not keen on that from a daily supply zone perspective I'll keep it there But in the way that we draw supply and demand and everyone is joining the private members group That is definitely not a strong area Even though that that has moved that has moved. I think maybe about four or five hundred pips something like that. Yeah, about four hundred pips Just from a daily supply zone and following the rules that we do that wouldn't be classified as a strong one That doesn't mean that it can't you know react from up here and go down to saying that if you are getting short That wouldn't be something technically that I would look for And for me, I'm more looking for Dollar buys than I am Yen buys so I'm not really concerned with looking at supply zones. I'm more looking at the demand zone down here And even if we get a pullback down to that 1850 area, that's gonna be an absolute bargain I think currently with the way that the fundamentals are with the yen Bank of England Sorry Bank of Japan. I'm not even looking to high crates anytime soon or do anything with their monetary policy I don't think so Yeah, the dollar for me is the one to buy moving on to the dollar Swiss and the dollar Swiss We did have a demand zone here prices didn't come down to that daily demand unfortunately Wasn't a daily demand We could have got involved in but we do have now an area of demand and In fact, we've got hidden demand right here as well For those of you who understand hidden demand so that's an area in fact I don't mind looking at to get involved in a Trade right there. So there's that currently we are in we have got a supply zone right there Which prices could start to? React from and it looks like they are reacting and again when you get wide zones like this one of the things you can do just one of the things you can do is break the zone down and look for support and resistance, you know, we use many technical tools and One of them is support and resistance within supply and demand zones and I do have a video which explains that Supply and support and resistance really are supply and demand zones But yeah, you've got an area there within that wide Supply zone that you would probably want to look for short trades not every single Level within this area here. It would be, you know a level worth taking right? You still want to break it down if you go down to maybe the four hour chart Still look for your support and resistance if in this case It would be resistance if you were looking for short trades, right same thing if you were looking for a buy In this demand zone here again. This is only one of the things only one The things I look towards When it comes to analysis, but for me that is a really nice. It's like a really nice buy Trade that potentially I'm looking for and even better would be somewhere down here. That would actually be a really nice trade. I think Down in that 92 round number So interested in that area to look for buy trades and if you're looking for sell trades then right now or You know up at the highest would be where you would want to look for short trades So moving on to the dollar CAD Dollar CAD not a pair that I'm interested in but I will draw the Some supply and demand so we've got a bit of demand there and The nearest supply actually is all the way up here. So we've got let's see supply Yeah, any hidden supply in here nope So yeah, any pullbacks again fundamentally you want to be a buyer of really both currencies in my book The Canada recently had their jobless rate hits record low stoking rate hike odds, right? So a good economy in a good economy An economy that's adding seventy three thousand jobs unemployment rate falls to a five point three the Bank of Canada expects to act forcefully at next decision, right? So when you've got to When you've got two central banks looking to hike rates not really a currency I'm interested in but if you are then and you and you think the dollars are bargain here And that's a buy if you do think that kind of Canadian dollars of buy then you have to really wait for prices to come back up to here to look for any kind of short trades New Zealand dollar US dollar again two central banks hiking rates not really my cup of tea when it comes to Looking at the trade all this currency pair But again, if you are with prices did react to for that supply zone right there If you do want to be a buyer of the New Zealand dollar That's a decent level to look for long trades And if you were looking at looking at short trades is in buying the US dollar against New Zealand dollar Then that area there is going to be the one to look for when you're looking for sell trades in fact In fact, in fact, you've got a bit of a wider zone just below it because it did make lower lows So there are there is that area then again, just break that down that zone down go down to the lower time frame see where that where There's some support resistance in there and see if you want to get involved in that trade pound dollar The pound dollar I was saying last week that and I've been saying for the past few weeks that this is the path for lease resistance is to the downside and pretty much played out, you know as expected and and One of the reasons is because the the Bank of England's are slowing down It looks like they're slowing down their Their their their their hiking cycle. So So let's get into that one second you just find it so the reason why yep So grosses lift staff pay as UK cost of living crisis deepens down a croc cost of living crisis is Obviously energy bills going up Petrol going up, you know food going up, right? So If if people are paying more The cost of living is going higher than what people generally tend to do and don't think of people in terms of like, you know They're they're aliens or they're not you Think about what you're doing in this in this current climate when you're seeing food go up You're seeing, you know petrol prices go up energy costs go up You're gonna spend less right you're gonna be a bit more conservative and then in economy You need people to spend money, right? You need, you know people to go out and spend money by you know things and clothes and You know spend money at the pubs go on holidays, but if people are not doing that if you're not doing that Because you're worried about spending in the economy Potentially, you know, you could you know, it could slow down right the economy could slow down and that's you know Could lead to potential, you know stagflation or even a recession So the Bank of England are well aware of this and so with that being said Because of the economic problems that we are facing here in the UK or potential economic problems You're seeing the market price that in so a weaker dollar. I'm sorry a weaker pound and again stronger dollar Would lead to this, you know going to the downside, so I'm gonna zoom out a little bit and see if there's any obvious Demand zone levels that we need to take into account. I think there might be one round here There are there are several bank. I think I might encompass that matter of fact Yes, what I'll do is I'll probably get rid of this For now I do think that The 130 might be a bit of a floor and the Bank of England are still hiking rates, right? So I think this might be the low of the of the move or it could be the low of the move Because they are still in the hiking cycle But I think once that hiking cycle stops that could drive the pound higher But once that hiking cycle stops, then I do think again more short trades So we do have a bit of a demand zone a longer term demands on here And then he supplies owns of really kind of sitting on top of that area I mean it pretty much encompasses all of this to be fair And again for me I think my the trade that I'd be looking for if I'm looking to short this Which I am would be probably starting from the one point three two area and higher So let's see what happens there, but buying the pound at the moment. I mean, this is a decent buy Definitely a decent buy technically, but but fundamentally You know, I'm not really looking to buy the pound at all more looking for short trades from that one three two Beyond and even it up into the one three three fifties That would be a really nice area to look for any kind of short trades euro dollar So again, you know as we were expected a lot of guys in the group We got in at the top here took profits around here So I know I'm out of this trade now really nice trade that we took But I know some traders are still in it Hoping that it will go a bit lower, but I think the floor again is the 108 levels down to that low. So I'm pretty much waiting on a pullback Up into if prices can pull back into that area there and there are reasons for it There are reasons for Prices pulling back into that area and into that zone and it's because Ultimately that the ECB are Jaw-boning or moral suasion in their their their their their euro, right? So ECB may rethink stimulus exit if outlook worsens says lane so Lane says bond buying still to Set to conclude in third court and policy makers face opposing forces ECB Economist says and it says the European Central Bank would need to reassess its timetable for withdrawing stimulus If the souring economic outlook weighs on the prospects of consumer prices according to chief economist Philip Lane now Removing stimulus is generally positive for a currency, right? So if they remove stimulus Then you should see prices go higher also as well The ECB are expected or what they've been talking what the market expects for them to do is to is to start to hike rates at least by the fourth quarter of this year, which again is positive for the euro but with the crisis going on in in the Ukraine and and other things as well as the the GDP The effect of the war on GDP. I think the upside is very limited so Again for me, I think any pullbacks are just a buying opportunity for the dollar You know to short really in this in this In this area this one one eleven fifty area. I think it's probably the better area Yeah, the one eleven forties to one eleven eighties or one one one twelve But there could be some upside potential for the euro I Again, I'm not really a buyer of the euro at all Not really something that I I'm looking to do But if you are I think prices have come down to a really nice Area to look for long trades, but I'm not really a buyer of the the euro I'd rather just wait for prices to come back up into this area here and look for Sell trades and buy the the US dollar. So again the I think that the The the the ECB meeting this week will probably be more hawkish because they have to talk up the euro They don't want the euro to go down because if the euro goes, you know Even lower and the values even more and that pushes inflation higher and they have an inflation problem. So They're expected to be very hawkish, but whether they Whether they will deliver is it is another question, but it's always by the rumor with fundamentals anyways I think that's the analysis done Aussie dollar Aussie dollar So there was prices did react. I think probably more for this Supply zone from way back when pierced through it But you know basically held and in fact probably now stopped put that Supply zone from there to there fundamentally not really a pair. I'm interested in Because you got again, you've got a central bank that's looking to high crates or both central banks looking to high crates But one is already on that hiking cycle or the other is joining in on the party So if you do want to be a buyer of the Australian dollar really pull back into that zone there would be decent Actually be very decent technically Nice fresh area But if you're looking for any kind of sell trades, so if you're looking to buy yes, the Australian dollar apologies If you're going to buy Australian dollar, then you're looking to you know buy demand zones if you're looking at buying the US dollar I would say anywhere around that 76 to 76. So 76 cent 76 50 cent level to the downside. I think that's a really nice area to look for any kind of short trades But I'm not really looking to trade that pair Aussie yen Aussie yen looking to get involved in this but I do think that we are an expensive area very expensive area We're at the highs and Yeah, one of the one of the tools I use to to measure, you know, whether something is expensive or fair value is Is moving averages and I know them was moving fair value and What I use is the monthly fair value So that's the 21 period to 21 trading days generally in a in a trading month. So anything above that moving fair value Is expensive. So I really want prices to kind of catch up Or the moving fair value or fair value to catch up with, you know, that area there before I look for any kind of long trades And that would give me a bit more confidence confidence in that area if prices pulled back and it's still well above that Monthly fair value, then I'm not really looking to take that I personally prefer a deeper pullback wherever that deeper pullback, you know, comes if it comes down here and then get Get a buy somewhere around at a level and that's for me is is decent but But yeah, let's see what happens prices look like they're auctioning right now In that area so it could auction for a while So I do think the first area to look for any kind of buys for me. Anyway, it's going to be that 91 area and if you are looking at any kind of sell trades, I guess you could Technically draw it from here. Again, you've got a wide supply zone But I think the highs are going to be where you want to look for any kind of sell trades and buy the yen Um, not really a buyer at the end at the moment Especially with the Australian dollar looking to high crates. Um, so yeah, that's those are the options and gold Gold um, I'm a buyer of gold and uh, yeah, we're seeing prices again pull up Let me just get rid of the moving fair values. So we did have price Come down into that demand zone right here Right and now we're making a few more highs. I think Um, can draw another demand zone there. I don't again. It's not necessarily the strongest area of demand Um, but I do think any pull backs into this 19 round number or just below it is going to be a really nice buy I think um with inflation pressures Going on and as well, uh, just all around the world and again even with china um They're uh, they're coronavirus levels have gone, you know higher and higher. I do think that gold is a buy It's but uh, if you disagree then this is going to be your area to look for any kind of short trades or any short trades in and around This area here, but I'm personally going to look for any kind of pull backs into that zone to look for any kind of Long trades anyways guys, uh, that's it for this week. I hope you enjoyed the analysis Don't forget to like subscribe and share and uh, take care until next week's video all the best