 This is still the ballot 2023 and we are moving to the economic realities of each state and the debt profile and the effects on the elections of the state. Now joining us to make sense of all of this is Mukta Muhammad, a financial analyst. Mukta, I ask you to have you join us real time in studio. Thank you. It's always via Zoom and it's my pleasure to have you here this evening. You know we're talking about real time and transmission of results so this is real time transmission but quickly just before we talk about you know the debt profile of each of the states the economic realities of the state in terms of capacity you know to perform and what have you and that's one of the reasons why this election is very important unfortunately we have recorded political apathy across you know the entire state of the federation and we're still grappling with what could have been responsible for this you know apathy especially when we saw the energy on the 25th of February different energy entirely that's how to describe it so but before we get to that point what's your overview of this election? Well if you look at the pattern when it comes to presidency we put all our energies to the presidential election it's no new what we see and the presidential election normally dictate what will happen in the governorship elections and in our state has our assembly selection so we need to be enlightening more Nigerians on the importance of every election especially when it comes to the governorship and the state has our assembly elections I think it's more it should be the elections that the Nigerians should be more interested in because it has to do with them as an individual but unfortunately I think again some people are not happy with the outcome of last election especially the most of them came out they thought they are both we count because of the beavers unfortunately most of them do not have confidence in the system without beavers and they feel that if beavers they wasn't working during the presidential election they don't think they'll waste their time again because they felt that if beavers was recognized they only are sure and that they have that they are both we count and since beavers they had issues and still had issues today a lot of them are not confident with the process so I mean I mean looking at that moving forward so we probably have 20 27 you know to prepare for another election what are the lessons that you need you think that we should you know pay attention to what are the things that we need to you know be looking out for again another cycle election cycle I think we need to look at the process we need to improve the process we've been saying that over years in the next election we're going to improve the process unfortunately we've not seen the improvement in terms of the process even the if you were if you listen to the governor the presidential aspirant of the labor party he talked about not against the outcome but mostly against the process so for me I think the process is the challenge that we are having and so we need to see how we can improve the process and again we need to let the people know that governance is all about the grassroots it's very important to vote the candidate of your choice especially when he comes to the state and local government and also members of the house are present because those are that close to your doorstep unfortunately we've ascribed the president the almighty power we feel that the roads in front of our house should be done by the president we've forgotten that we have members representing us in the house of representing state as of representative and we have a state governor that we should be doing that so I think the process will more or less will be on education then secondly we need to improve the process and make it more technological oriented to get more people to have a confident in the system so let's begin to you know look at the debt profile of you know Nigerian state I'm hoping that we're able to project that figure but we set off with Lagos reports are saying that the spin a trail on domestic debt stock after that you have delta state following which you probably looking at 272.6 billionaire they probably might just be a decrease at the time of 106 billion right there so Lagos the end of the day you're looking at 780.476 billionaire followed by delta state and that's running quickly now with the idea out so if you talk about debt profile you look at the status Lagos and the fact that everyone looks at Lagos as a state that has the capacity to generate you know revenue so much and then why we should Lagos be be on this list I think it's still like Lagos should be the one that we see should say that we are not so bothered about our debt profile because when you look at the revenue revenue is basically the challenge that we have in other states Lagos with their debt profile buy and buy your revenue then you you should be not to be too consigned because the Lagos state international revenue is even the best in the country even with the way they've gone about it with the private sector they have the PPP so I don't think it's so much of a problem for Lagos like we said it one time I said it a go one time in your program that time Lagos state need to copy the federal government need to copy Lagos state in terms of if you look at the federal government challenge of debt with revenue is not even enough to pay debt but you look at Lagos state they have enough revenue coming in to take care of their debt so a debt in itself is not a challenge but but if you I'd like to take you on that now if you say that Lagos state should be emulated the federal or that's the center should copy you know the component unit which is Lagos super precise because of her IGRO capacity then how do you also explain the fact that if you look at the statistics from 2022 Lagos state has the high debt profile amongst the 36 state of the federation including the FCT you know by at the end of the second quarter of 2022 there you have to also you don't just look at debt you know look at revenue if they have not steadily improved your revenue over this over those times they've steadily improved their revenue and that's what I'm saying that it's not so much of a problem and when you look at some of the project in Lagos state they are targeted project they have to deal with infrastructure that also also generate revenues when you open up those places I bring businesses into those places so it's a creative system that you have in Lagos state if you look at their their profile via via their revenue they are not in the negative so that is for me the the good thing about Lagos state their profile but again when it comes to their profile like I said no country wants is so they're free being the best or best the devil of country in the world debt in itself is not a challenge it's hard to do with what are you using those debt for using it to deal with pay salaries or using it to build infrastructures that will also contribute to the GDP of the state and also create jobs that's what we need to look at debt is a service not a bad in every business it's all about the world global business look for to get debt from bank and that's why banks are established they make more money when you come to loan money from them and then you also use it to generate more money so it's not so much of a problem of the debt profile most we should be looking at them if you have how much idea are they able to generate with the type of debt that they have that should be the major concern if you also look at iGeral they're also I mean Lagos state is also leading in in that direction but my question now is comparing the iGeral and the allocation from the center do you think that the infrastructure that we have can be commensurate to you know the iGeral they are generating and as well as you know every other revenue whether it's from the center can you say categorically that the infrastructure in Lagos can be compared to the iGeral of Lagos state it depends you see Lagos state is more or less like a state that has multiple stream of income so the iGI is good their location where federal allocation also is very good so they have they they also have those tools remember again not to forget that Lagos state may soon become an oil producing state that also will add to their revenue base and in terms of infrastructure you can see they are opening up more infrastructures to the Fort Mellon bridge is to common stream they also have to open up a lot of routes especially in the eclair the deep sea also projectives to be in existence so Lagos state as far as I'm concerned is one of the states that should be doing better I think if you look at what they get commercially to other states I think that's what we should be looking at it are they doing more they should be doing more with what they are having let's just start with the basics and help us understand because from a layman's point of view you see someone making so much money and still having to borrow so much so make us understand why it's so important to be in debt even when you're making so much money let's start from there I'm so lay I need to know that simple business ethics you see you don't use your capital and all your all your money to start a business because you need to have something to fall back to in case your business is not doing well now debt in itself is to grow your business debt is not the only time they become a challenge is when you are using debt to just feed on your luxury but if debt is all about debt is all about expansion and growth and then when you look at Lagos the debt is all about infrastructure now the debt that they are they are they are they are colliding they are not collecting those debt to feed on maybe pay salaries like I said pay federal allowances for political appointees but most of those debts that they have is targeted at specific project that have impact on the people so you don't use all your resources to quit project and don't have a buffer so the challenge like I keep saying is if I am making so much money and I'm living above the money the base and I mean I'm making so much money yet I'm still boring and I'm also in debt now that's where Nigeria as a country comes to we are making so much money but we are both so much that what we are making is not even enough to pay our debt so what Lagos is making is enough to pay up their debt but like a typical business or any economy you want to run an economy you don't run like you want to start a business now you don't put all your capital into the business that's why you see big businesses we say okay we need shareholders to come in we need people to to be part of that business to create expansion so that the the burden will not be so much on on on the company so it's it's it's it's it's just the way capitalism is all about using debt to grow good schooling um on a funny note someone said you borrow money so that the people you're borrowing from will be praying for your long life so that you live long to okay now seriously now um you talked about the what Lagos is doing differently which is engaging the private sector to collect these debts and all to do what they are doing in Lagos some people have criticized that that apart from the fact that um the field that the private sector being engaged is a is really private if you know what i mean uh you know okay so it's a consulting uh kind of thing which shouldn't last forever you know so they have criticized that that it's the bulk of the work that is being done is done by the establishment by the the uh board of internal revenue and the government agencies they are the ones that collect this and whoever is engaged as a private individual or a private company is just doing the consulting services so why is there so much need to have this consulting firm like the one that we have in Lagos having so much grasp in the economy of Lagos why does that have to be the case in Lagos i think it's more of a political decision uh to do that in Lagos state than an economy decision remember what happened in Lagos state is not even just with the consulting terms of internal revenue even in terms of uh uh waste handling it's all when you see it's all handled by politicians it's that they are only they are the only way of rewarding those that help them to come to power that's that's the way i see it and i i don't think it's right especially when you have um like you said they also have their own establishment i suppose to go after but again they will tell you that sometime when you leave it in the hands of government they don't generate the kind of revenue they normally will generate especially when the government passed it was out there trying to go after getting this revenue so the the the the challenge i have with that like you rightly pointed out is that you are employing so much in your state ij internal revenue and then you have consultants who carry out those businesses so what it doesn't make business sense i think for me i think that's one thing they need to improve upon and then when you look at the percentage that the consultants have to collect and what they are giving back to the government i think it called more to be desired so they need to read no bullshit that or put it back but unfortunately i think the political landscape of lego state has been like that since the inception and that's and they they can by themselves that yes it's working for us because every year we keep improving in our iji but it's working for you and it could have worked better you know but if the federal government or other states need to copy the template of lego state what can they do differently it will be difficult because most businesses are actually in lego state most business headquarters are actually in lego state not that most businesses really are in lego state but the headquarters are in lego state and you mustn't forget that lego state also have enjoyed this thing as once the capital of the federal republic of nigeria so most of the infrastructure that you have in lego state assistance now we're actually uh owned by the i mean built by the federal government i keep making the incident of the third men land bridge it's built by the federal government in the um almost since 1999 that will have a civil law administration in lego state obtained recently that they said they are building the fourth men land bridge we've not seen anything in terms of improving upon that or even building something new so definitely it will be difficult for other states because they don't have the kind of businesses that you have in lego state lego they have airport lego they have three port lego state house a lot of people coming here to do their businesses even what lego state is capturing if by the time lego state is able to develop a strategy to even capture the informal sector in lego state via via making its fines base into their own state allocation state revenue it will be huge because now what you see in those uh businesses that they find their they find their their their revenue are less most ending the formal sector ends up in private pockets rather than government comfort so you do improve on that but in other states they have the challenge and most states in nigeria the only thing they do is get money for the federation account pay salaries and do one or two projects but i really don't understand what is happening in nigeria maybe you know the dynamics maybe you know the politics behind this and all that but you find that it shouldn't be only lego's that should have a pot a working pot we have river state we have cross river state that at some point had a free trade zone the tinapa was there and all that these things are not working and it's only working in lego's is it something that lego's is doing or the negligence on the part of the federal government i think itself would be when you look at seaport no state can own seaport hey you understand so it's be unless federal government give you permission or concession like the seaport we have in lego's is federal nigerian nigerian port authority that owns it that operate it and build and operate it but what lego state enjoys is that they have some charges that they charge some of those companies that do business here and so that's how they generate well the value added tax and everything remember that state case in cuts it goes to the federal government so what other state have not done number one you need to look at the depth you know the deep water sea of some of these states these waters are not so deep to to encourage large vessels to land so that's what dredging is for dredging is all about and all when you look at that dredging thing a state government alone cannot decide to dredge the waterways remember that we were talking about every waterway in nigeria belongs to the federal government that's why you see no state creating any state waterways it's all belongs to the federal government so what lego's have enjoyed in terms of waterway is when they get permission for the federal government remember even before the ecuatlantic project was given permission to study have to seek permission for the federal government we have to weave a lot of this so some of these states are not enjoying those privilege or maybe they are not fighting for it based on political affiliation or they are not yet ready for it i think that is majorly the challenge you mustn't forget we keep talking about this exclusive list that belongs to the government until today that we had the new minister president that finally said that state government can also be able to build power plants or nice and exclusive list of the federal government so we talk about resources in other states some state have goals some state have mining of what they cannot mine those things because it belongs exclusively to the federal so let's even talk about the exclusive control i mean the fact that some of these resources are still within the exclusively list and the fact that there's been a lot of agitation for resource control and so do you think that if states were you know able to control resources they are resources they probably would not be you know in all of this issue of debt for instance and also if you look at their ijirao in terms of capacity as a lot of states will be doing better so far if you look at the ranking legos would be topping the chart followed by other states and the list is ongoing you will see or you will see on those states and others the list is not very very impressive so the question right here is do you think that if we got to a point where we unbundled we allowed state government to control their resources and harness you know the resources that they are several lands are embedded with do you think that the issue of death and your ijirao would you want the other hand increase and reduce no let's not look at the issue of debt because i see debt is a business scale for capitalism okay so so do you think that the iji okay the iji will increase will definitely improve especially if the state are creative let me give you an instance for the state or for the federal government for the state let me give you an instance on those states they came up with a with a scheme to catch the informal sector whereby they go there they pay a particular fixed amount that's no matter the revenue no matter your turnover you pay a particular fixed amount as tax to the government every month that is a way to capture the informal sector so that's how they are also being able to boost their internal generated revenue so you need to be creative especially by and by and what the again what the understate government also was doing also was also to see the benefits that they give to the people and what is the benefit to tell you that okay if you pay this amount as tax you have a card then you are entitled to medicars they created their own health insurance scheme also so that's a creative way of letting the people know that your tax is not just for us government to pay salaries for us to buy bb cars and you see them learn about those cars but also to provide amenities for your well-being both social and economics we have to use some of those that people will be interested because it's all about what can you give what i'm giving back that's why other developed countries in the world work because they see they say taxpayer money at work taxpayer money is that i'm i just wonder what happens this exclusive lease that we've been hearing we know states that produce oil for instance and everybody enjoys the oil we know states that have mineral resources that are even that can even fetch us more money in this country but we don't seem to hear much about this what is really going on do you have an idea we have gold we have other mineral resources but we don't hear about it but there are in the exclusive lease of federal government and these resources are being tapped by individuals we couldn't say we don't hear about it until when when the bubble boss you really begin to hear that government collect some of the state government like the oil states that we're talking about we never knew they started collecting the 30 30 percent derivative until we seen we can say look boharia has been the best he gave us all our 13 percent derivative form so that have been heard by previous government and this is the amount that was quoted to us then before start year under state government say yes we collected we use it for this reason so sometime is what that's what we see pattern actually the citizens the citizens need to start asking question if we are and we have been i think they're trying to create the non as you didn't know mineral producing non mineral producing states how much of this revenue how much of this we have been able to generate how much revenue how much comes back to the state is when the citizens start asking question the indians start asking people that are there doing business that asking question then you begin to get to know the feeling that some of this government actually has some money from this before now we don't know what they do with security votes we used to know that they have security both companies are asking questions we started seeing security votes as an issue so definitely i think until we start asking questions we won't know you can't just see this the federal government they just don't mind everything this is sharing formula for every resources that comes out from your state what we are seeing is that the same formula seems to favor the federal government more than the state and that's why i said okay let every state based on what they produce let let them have the the largest portion in terms of revenue and that's why people are complaining that okay the value added tax the amount of value added tax that goes to the federal government is too much because most of these businesses are done in those states so when we those are things that we need to look at and unfortunately those are not issues that can be addressed by the state government through project it's a constitutional issue and so okay well we have a reporter on the field now obajiyapet so we'll just take a break from you and then talk to obajiyapet standing by to give us an update on the elections earlier on he was in a gigi right now let's get to know where he is obajiy good evening and welcome to the program on mute yourself please we can't hear you obajiy can you hear me yeah can you hear them yes okay so what's the situation where are you right now and what has transpired since the last time you spoke with us your audio is really bad i think we'll have to try to rejoin you when the audio improves i don't know if it's from our side or yours but i think it's from your side so i try to do some adjustment and reconnect with us in the meantime we're still talking with um financial expert that's what i will say and we're trying to look at what is happening in the states and all that Nigeria you know giant of africa in all ramifications that's what we should be even though we are too smart for our own good but but we still find ourselves in a situation where we're still struggling you know financially uh our debt profile as we're looking at it our pay capita is that how they call it and all that yeah yeah so what are really the issues that are putting us in this this position that we're finding ourselves i think gdp based on productivity through the gdp uh that's why the government will always use the gdp as a yes thing that um we are boring because our gdp allows based on productivity in terms of um what we we we do even produce anything yeah well i mean we do we produce oil we do produce oil we mine oil that's that's all um that is but like we always tell them gdp do not pay your debt per capital income has to do with the reproductivity on the re-sector how much of your citizens have a job and how much do they earn in those jobs so that is where we have a challenge in africa we are very low comparable to some other con state countries like south africa even even rwanda even broondi broondi of recent so it's a big big challenge in terms of per capita per capita has to also do with productivity like i said um if you have jobs but what we see in nigeria is that most of the jobs are political jobs what i mean by political job is that um government see themself as socially social too they have to employ people based on so that they can use it as a yes thing you said okay i employ social number of people when i was a governor of a state i employ social number instead of okay i brought this company and this company in terms of employing social number of people this is a number of people pay tax and this tax is what we used to develop these states so that's where your per capita income per capita income has to do with your people gdp has to do with the larger economy but what grows your people is their per capita income and that is what they can use to buy consumables and those consumables in terms will be what will produce companies and companies will employ people and once you have the means to buy then employment keep getting better so the challenge we have as a nation you hit the nail on the head is the per capita income of every nigeria and we have they set the point we have less than one dollars per day it was not nigerians and so it's really bad in part about the intake of gdp we must look at our gdp nigerian dv gdp when it's high is because product production of crude oil is high when it's low you just look at it the the crude oil brodonium is low at the time that we're doing crude oil about them i think before we're doing about 1.8 million barrel per day by the time we went as low as 900 000 barrel per day you saw that affect not just our gdp you know also affect our earning capability but now we are improving and you see that our gdp seem to improve now that is not the regroup that is the times in terms of the productive growth of the economy but when you're talking about the productivity of the people and is the productivity of the people in an economy that gives the economy more i mean that makes the economy because the economy itself you're talking about the prosperity of the people and so when the prosperity of the people is low then your economy is not doing well because when you have high unemployment especially under employment so you need to work on that and you can only work on that if you have the amenities if you are creating those infrastructure businesses are ready to come in you create the two-way exchange system you attract foreign direct investors you attract portfolio investors everybody wants to come into the economy because they know two things clue your economy especially in our own case intellectual property we are we don't have that guiding of people intellectual properties that is one that's second in rule of law all you just need to look at you just need to look at what happened between the see the federal government the state government and the cbn in the redesigning of the naira noob despite supreme court judgment seems to be this plumber disobeyed obedient to no investor want to come into the economy and the world has become a global village whereby everything that happens in one everybody knows what is happening in one and so you cannot immune yourself from those basic issues that grow an economy i think that's basically a challenge some people are of the school of thought that some states are not viable enough to stand on their own so if there's going to be some kind of restructuring in the country and things like this are looked into some states will should merge and we're trying to also look at the fact that the exclusive list is keeping some things and we don't seem to feel the impact of these things on the exclusive leaves like mining gold and other minerals in Nigeria we seem to know only about oil and all that so mukta we're back here trying to do this as we're trying to wrap up for the next team to come on do you really think viability of a stage is enough reason for them to merge with another state and that we our 36 states is just something that we really don't need you know that's a very difficult question you need to look at how these states were created they were not created because of economy and they were created sometimes because of population some of them were created because of pressure group so for me that's the challenge that we have you're talking about merging what have we been able to what have we been able to achieve the federal government in terms of maybe merging parasitals that seem to overlap themselves or not sorry what is there keep talking about doing it with using code but we are not in interval talk less of you want to imagine state and state but the political side of it when a politician talks about restructuring they're talking about what is there for us as states not restructuring that what is economy restore you're talking about economy research on there a lot of states that will be non-existent today and that is why some states are fighting they don't want the you see the rapid manner swift to respond the supreme court gave to right Naira redesigner have you actually said why have they not given a swift response to the value of the tax case that was brought in by reverse state and legal so that's training that we are not interested in the economic survivor of this nation what we are more interested in is the political entity called Nigeria so definitely that is the major challenge okay well um I would have said let's just stop here but talk to Nigerians as an economist as a financial expert just talk to Nigerians and raise their hopes if it is possible because we are our our disappointment is in the fact that we are borrowing so much and we might just implode or explode or whatever the term that you might use so as a final word to Nigerians give us some hope please well the hope we have is that we have the resources the hope we have is that the incoming president elect if you look at the manifesto seems to tick all the buttons PPP private sector removal of subsidy economy based based on productivity of the people and if we are able to do that we'll be fine in terms of I think what we two decision need to be taking and if we get those two decision rightly then we are on the part of economy prosperity number one for a subsidy are we really doing for a subsidy or we are busy improving creating more people to become wealthy out of our our common world that's a big decision to be taken by the federal government how can we attract foreign direct investors into this country so that the exchange rate that is becoming so um gap between the exchange rate we can end more effects into the economy then not just looking at agriculture a agriculture agriculture what is Nigerian competitive advantage in agriculture which part of us talk about Ghana talk of cuckoo talk of cuckoo we talk about if even in some countries if we talk of fishery in america we talk of Alaska so in Nigeria let's pick a product that we know our soil is good we have the people that we can create a value chain out of those products so in the incoming administration have a lot to do but for the ordinary Nigerian I think there's an economy tense that said in the midst of crisis there's so much opportunity but you can only take those opportunities if you have these keys so what I would advise Nigerians that try to see how you can involve yourself in self-development by and by looking for opportunity but self-development is not complete that government also supports so government need to create the environment for self-development and one of those key infrastructure you need for for self-development is power okay thank you so much Mukta Mohamed I hope if you have a third name it doesn't start with M oh that will be MMM okay well it's the good MMM that we have Mukta it's been a pleasure having you on the show today and you have really educated us in so many ways and we do hope that your positivity will translate you know in the hearts of Nigerians and Nigeria as a country and make us prosper in the coming days may the manifesto be followed that's how it's been we are going to leave the scene now but we will have Justin and Maureen take over the ballot is continuing till midnight and we're hoping that some results will be trickling in some other people on the field might have something else to say to us and all that but we'll be monitoring events until then I'd like to say thank you to you Mukta for coming on the program always a pleasure to be at your station thank you so much for being part of the show and that's it it's all right to follow our conversation on all of our social media platforms or on facebook twitter and instagram and it's all right to 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