 Tom is head of the Energy and Environment Division at the International Energy Agency, and the title of his talk is CCUS in the Clean Energy Transition. Over to you, Tom. Great, thank you. Thank you very much, Sara, and hello, everyone. Good morning to you. Thank you for joining so early US time. Here at the IEA, we review all aspects of the energy sector, and produce lots of data and reports and publications on the policy side, the technology side. And I might start off with one of our most recent and well publicized reports, which is our net zero report, which came out just a few weeks ago. Here, the IEA made it clear that there can be feasible pathways to net to achieving global net zero emissions by 2050. That was the headline. And it's one pathway, and obviously there are an infinite number of pathways depending on countries, circumstances, wealth, resources, and so on. And so that's a caveat with our scenario, but really the point is that it's feasible. And we can start now implementing a range of different policies to deliver on it. We start off with a story of what the different what the trend might look like in terms of the different pathways over the decades. And here we see first the breakdown in terms of the fuel pathways going decade by decade up to 2050. And we see clearly the expected reduction in fossil fuel consumption over the over those decades completed with the growth of CC us in that pathway. So clearly on the electricity side, we spit out the electricity side because a major element and a near no regrets element of all decarbonization scenarios is growing electrification of the energy sector. So looking at how that sector changes within the different decades here as well. We see not only the growth, but the changing composition away from the today's where we have a vast bulk of unabated fossil fuels to the growth. A huge growth clearly of solar and wind, and other renewables, but also the growth of CC us in the power sector so power sector, it started off being talked of just in power. The talk in recent years has also stretched into industry and other sectors, and it will be in our scenario it's a component of all three sectors, not least because as you'll see here. In 2050 there's quite a significant hydrogen consumption in our scenario, and that's partly delivered through what people call green hydrogen so produced through electrolyzers using renewably sourced electricity. And there's also the blue hydrogen and then the hydrogen that's produced with fossil fuels or synthetic fuels combined with CC us. It's CC us is relevant in in every part of that chain is here. We see how significant incident begin to this by today's standards, compared to where it got to grow to in 2050 so in terms of the story of the scale. So here we get some some very big numbers and some very strong growth rates. And here again, you see the different breakdown of where in our scenario, we would expect to see the growth of this CCS. Of course, they're clearly a lot in the electricity sector but as I was saying, it's in electricity, it's in industry, it's in fuel supply that I mentioned hydrogen, but it's also in the biofuels side, where it can lead to negative emissions of course when we combine that with with bioenergy and carbon capture. And then there's tax as well to if you like the cherry on the top is that there is tax in this as well. That's, again, a detailed breakthrough look through the pathway, the scale and where we're expecting CCS to grow. And given that it's a hot topic we thought it's it's worth touching base with with other scenarios around the world. In particular, given the climate discussions focus on all of this, how things stand of comparing our scenario compared to other scenarios. So here, we just flag up what our scenario looks like compared to the the vast range of other comparable scenarios from the IPCC report, and to pick up CCC to capture in particular you'll see that we are very much airing on the conservative side. We do so also when it comes to CO2 removal and with bioenergy supply. So it's higher than most scenarios when it comes to hydrogen supply so that's, it's an interesting witness test of where we stand compared to everybody else. But then if we go back to the question of scale. If this is what we're putting in our scenario, then, and that's conservative. That means that the numbers when you look beyond the energy sector grow even larger. That's something to bear in mind friends that this scenario is is focusing on the energy sector and achieving zero in the energy sector in 2015. When one takes global scenarios of global emissions. It's as often as not, there are scenarios which require more to be done in the energy sector to compensate for the great difficulties in delivering carbon reductions in other sectors. And that can lead to requiring more negative emissions in the energy sector, and therefore more CCUS. So that's one reason why we're being conservative. But again, the scale is pretty pretty great the rates of growth are pretty great, all things considered. So those are the projections. And let's have a look at where we've gone in in recent recent years. And here the growth rates are not quite the same. So you'll see, starting from relatively low base in 1980 putting our data. Most of the development most of the projects have been associated with natural gas processing. And then more latterly, very recently in fact, we've had projects that have been developed in other sectors in fertilizer in fuel power generation so on. So it's very much at the demonstration phase but these are projects I guess a lot of you are familiar with, and it's necessary to have given the diversity of the applications of this technology. It's, there's, there's fresh learning curves in practically every sector so we need to start off with the demonstrations to just be before there's any, any hope of repetition of this project in in the same sectors. That's the starting point. And clearly we see 2020 has been a big jump. And that's one of the interesting policy messages that comes out I guess that with with the global talks, growing more serious around 26 and global commitments to net zero and I think there are now 57 commitments around the world to net zero emissions by 2050. And that kind of strong credible policy message is is building confidence in the sector. And so we're getting greater numbers of project proposals and announcements, funding announcements, and support as well. Scaling up. I have some experience of it I showed the graph there are trends over the last 40 years or so. And here, there is some of the classic lessons you'd expect to come out of an embryonic industry there's learning by doing questions of the different players are learning so to site layout and to modularization to break it down, not treating CCS all as as one indigestible whole, but breaking down into its component parts makes everything much more comprehensible and and more easily scaled up bit by bit. So the research element that goes into it. This is clearly one of the technologies which still requires major research investments and innovations. In fact, we've said for our net zero scenario that almost half the emissions reductions that we need to deliver on the net zero scenario are coming from technologies which are immature, not yet commercial and need need major innovation and R&D investment to support them to get through the valleys of death and to start the scale up and to bring down costs. So here we've got some experience and as I mentioned, a big jump in 2020 to have more than 30 new project announcements and over 8 billion US dollars committed to projects and their development. And with some of these projects we are seeing major major cost reductions, some depending on what we compare with what we've seen reductions of 20%, 35% in some cases, new projects doing what was done only a few years ago have achieved a 70% reduction. So these can still be very much case specific. And so we can't hope for ongoing 70% cost reductions annually for years. So in our scenario we actually assumed minus 35% cost learning learning, learning factor and cost reduction over the years. So we didn't come from scaling up. The other aspect to mention in terms of scaling up and learning is the impact on operating costs as opposed to capital costs. So here again, optimizing of maintenance strategies, resource use can play a great role in reducing costs, whether it's, I won't go into the risk going into the dangers of technicalities here of increased comprehension efficiency and digitalization and so on but these are the types of things that are being developed as new projects are being planned and announced and set up. And all of these can have significant impact on costs. So the scaling up will help in terms of learning it helps in terms of capital cost reduction, and it helps in terms of operating costs. The other aspect to flag up in terms of scale and cost reduction is the improvement in business models that comes with learning. Again, breaking it down into the separate components of capture transport and storage really allows us to zoom in on the different elements of the different parts of the value chain. For instance, shared transport and storage infrastructure cost is one element which has had a lot of news recently the, the European to created for instance a port hydrogen hub which was bringing together industrial hubs with a range of different expertise and skills and existing infrastructure and getting thinking all of that through to work together as a hub for for new hydrogen sources, combined with CCS and storage and transport option. So bringing together different players to have that kind of hub thinking is another factor that can be bringing bringing costs down in the scaling up. So those are few of the factors that we we highlight in in our report the report we produced last year was a zoom in on on everything you wanted to know about CCS around the world. So this report is the different cost aspects and the policy story, looking at where we, where we expect the, the, the accelerated CCS to happen. This is just a look at a different improvement by 2030. And here we see the growth factors up by by a factor of 20. In the mix, there's still, as I mentioned, quite a lot in the power sector so significant retrofitting of existing power, but also of industrial plants one of the, one of the questions that the world faces as we decarbonize is what to do with existing infrastructure. There's a lot of existing new infrastructure and particularly in Asia there's a lot of existing pretty new infrastructure, which has to be retrofitted or repurposed or converted for it to be. For not to end up being a rate major risk and stranded asset, and yet being part of a decarbonization strategy, then there's the question of how does all of this happen. And given it's it's a, the state of play, there's multiple elements that a government can bring to making this happen it's government combined with cooperation with industry of course. And here, given the timing that people are now talking or given the focus on on net zero by 2050. And that's, that's global. So that requires that some countries will be faster some were slower, and the faster country that means delivering net zero, or even negative emissions well before 2050. So that means there's plenty of room for CCS to play a role in different pathways of different countries around the world, even before 2050. But for that to happen, and we need urgent action in terms of setting up the right frameworks, they're creating the right commission conditions for investment, and that includes putting a value on emissions reductions, using carbon pricing or sell some other form of giving a value on that on those reductions, providing funding and whether that's support tax tax breaks contract for different regimes, other forms of subsidies, this is still necessary for demonstration plants get moving forward. So there's a needs to be a good discussion about the legal and regulatory frameworks around all of this. Some of the issues, and we've, we've thought through in in other fields in the oil and the mining industries for instance, some of these areas of these areas of the US, but this needs adaptation to the, to the world of CC us so there needs to be an exploration of the different aspects of the legal and regulatory regimes, social with a geology or the particular areas we're talking about. And associated with that is the question of, of judging the risk, calculating the risk and allocating the risks, some of these risks are things that can be monetized and born through insurance and the private sector. Others may be for the government to bear. So, all of these issues need need thinking through. And then there's the question of targeting the development of industrial hubs I mentioned the example in the EU of ports and hydrogen and storage and transportation being grouped together. So it's a matter of identifying those kinds of opportunities and deploying CCS in cooperation with industry, discovering those regions, and also building up the business model to do to allow that they can be developed as part of, of capture. Separately they can be development of storage. But at the same time we need to ensure that there are the transport or the transport infrastructure. There to ensure that these, these different parts of the market are able to interact and we do actually create a market with the right infrastructure. So I think I list here again the questions of storage, looking at the geological aspects. Again, there's a lot of experience in, in, in mining or gas industry, which can be transposed into this. So that's another aspect we talk about in terms of the scaling up is the fact that there's a lot of job job repurposing in the industry to help deal with these issues. And then there's just a question of boosting innovation again the, the, the need to support through ongoing R&D of the development of new technologies. And to accelerate the different sub, sub components, the key applications of different technologies again, whether that's in the capture aspect storage, transport, and so on. So that's a quick run through the scale, the overall big picture that we're talking of the comparison with historical developments to look at how that can change and how that indeed is already changing. And then a look at both where that's going to happen and the policy measures that we need to support that scaling up. I think I'll leave it there happy to take questions. Thank you very much. So the first question you had a chart earlier in your presentation that showed most of the CCS that's been done to date has been in the area of gas processing. Yet most of the CO2 that's being emitted is actually from combustion flu gas. So in terms of their learning by doing how much does the learning that's been accomplished in gas processing help us do combustion of flu gas CO2 capture. I didn't put a number on it. It's in broad terms, when there's there's learning from from from the oil and gas sectors today. But how replicable that is, how much thinking and adaptation that needs given the different geological circumstances or the changes that's, it's, I guess the point is that we're not starting at zero. So there's, there's not complete learning to be done. But yes, there is an adaptation of thinking or adaptation to the local circumstances. You mentioned also that half of CC us gains are going to come from technologies that are not fully mature. So who do you see will enable the de-risking of these technologies as it will entail significant funding. Well, there's a there's a wealth of policy instruments to talk about there in terms of sharing that risk. And it can can come partly through through non-monetary measures through improving the regulatory environment, improving the policy environment. I mean already the jump we've had in 2020 comes really from a sense that pure in pure political terms, the world are taking this much more seriously than hitherto. So that that already is providing a reassurance to the industry that this is not an extravagant folly that this is this is a clear direction of travel. And in fact it's a direction of travel which is unchangeable and getting faster. And that's just from, from policy from political messaging. So that can be done with that policy messaging, then there's a regulatory framework, and the more we can create a regulatory framework that answers a lot of industries questions whether that's in terms of liability, or the other aspects of the regulatory regime. That as well will have a direct impact on project costs on on project risk assessment and lower the capital costs of the development. And then there's just there is the money. And that that comes from the wealth of different instruments we have in some places, we've got good clear carbon prices which are providing a signal. But in most, most places everywhere in fact for these types of technologies, that kind of carbon pricing signal must be combined with other forms of support. You've got a good, a good regime in in the US in terms of tax breaks support with the California scheme or the federal scheme these these are good initiatives, which have monetized that that support and made it a broadly successful instrument. And then there's pure research funding that, again, the US is putting billions into to drive forward more of the primary research. And basically, I think, whether we're talking CCS or other novel technologies. It's really a matter of every type of instrument being necessary. And there are good practices around the world of different instruments that work. So there's really not a shortage of different instruments to apply. And it depends all of them, whether they're political policy, long term vision, regulatory, legal or financial, all of them need application storage is something that's not been discussed much in the seminar so far so I'm talking geologic storage here. How do you see public concerns about storage, you know, sort of nimby leakage issues things like that being addressed when we have a whole lot of opposition to even things like enhanced electrical grids and offshore wind. Those kinds of infrastructure which are sort of considered climate friendly are getting a lot of opposition so you know where does geologic storage fit in and how are we going to deal with public perception issues there. Well, in that sense it's it's it's a bit like your your other example it's it's a very well known issue and barrier to any kind of change and innovation. We have some degree of learning about how to deal with these issues. In terms of trying to explain trying to develop local policies that bring in local communities to make sure that there's a dialogue with all relevant stakeholders that we can put as much information out there as you possibly can to try to to to educate and inform. So, this is the case. It's the case with with with all technologies. It's growing as as awareness and as the sense of scale of CCS grows, then it is a growing issue in terms of storage here, but the messages that the concerns, if you like, are the same and the tools of addressing them are the same. The engagement requires putting the information out there. It requires demonstration to show that the risks that are reportedly out there are not there or not as great or manageable. And that we can have the reassuringly robust regulatory or legal or financial liability relationships there that can address them. Thank you very much Tom and thank you very much for your talk.