 Hei, wrth gwrs. I'm Peter O'Shawnysi. I'm new to Ember London, so thanks for welcoming me. I'm not going to talk about Ember because I don't actually know anything about Ember, except what I learned tonight. So I'm going to talk just generally about the future of the web and the future of web development and ask you all, what do you think is going to change in the next five years? What will the web and web development be like in 2020? I am a developer in a small team called Future Technologies in a big company called Pearson. So we spend quite a lot of our time thinking about all these technology trends and what might be coming next. But before we look at the future, I want to go back five years so we can see how much has changed during that time. So this was the state of the art with mobile five years ago. We didn't have the iPhone 4, we didn't have iOS because it was still iPhone OS back then. We were still on Android 2.1 Eclare. This was the state of the art with tablets back then. The iPad didn't come out till this month five years ago, sorry next month five years ago, April 2010. This was a lovely one called Motion Computing J3400. Smartwatches, we had back in 2010, who knew? This is a nice one from Samsung. I think they've come on a little bit of a way since then. And this was browsers five years ago. We didn't have IE9 back then. Everyone remember the excitement that you had when IE9 arrived? This is some of the JavaScript frameworks five years ago. Well, hopefully some of you recognize the logo on the left. I don't know this, I had to Google this on Wikipedia. Apparently Ember was Sproutcore back then. And we didn't have Backbone yet. That was I think October 2010 first release and no React of course, that's far too new. So a lot of things have changed over the last five years. So I think we can expect a lot to have changed by 2020. But in fact, we should really expect a whole lot more to change in the next five years because the pace of change is increasing. I guess we all know about Moore's Law saying that the computing power doubles every couple of years. And it's pretty amazing when you think about this. Obviously this is a logarithmic scale on the left. So you can think that this is exponential. This is over 100 years from 1900 to 2000. And if you zoom out over 200 years and you look up to 2100, then you can start plotting on the equivalent calculations per second for brains of biological creatures like our human brain is up here. And if you look at whereabouts roughly we should be in 2020, we should be somewhere roughly between a mouse and a human brain for $1,000. So I'm looking forward to having a nice cyberdog pet in the year 2020. And this is extrapolated out by a lot of futurists like the famous Ray Kurzweil into not only just being about technology and calculations per second and the speed of computers, but human progress in general. And Kurzweil believes that a whole 20th century's worth of progress happened just in the first 14 years of this century. And that a whole 20th century's worth of progress will happen between 2014 and 2021. So you can imagine what the next five years are going to be like if we have the best part of a 20th century's worth of stuff happening in terms of progress. And before we go into the web and web development, I just want to give a bit of context about what else might be happening in the world in 2010, 2020. So we should have the first robot Olympics and Japan are planning to host alongside the other Olympics for us puny humans. Japan are also planning to have a moon base built by 2020 built by robots for robots. Moon politics is going to be hotting up because Russia also want to be launching industrial mining on the moon of Helium-3 by 2020. Seven companies including Google plan to launch driverless cars by 2020. The Large Hadron Collider is due a massive upgrade in 2020 which could unveil the true nature of time and the possible existence of other universes. But the best thing about 2020 is we should have a full service on London Crossroad. So now let's look at the web in 2020. Well, predicting is obviously easy. All of us can make predictions. Getting something right is pretty hard. I'm sure we all know some of the predictions that have famously gone wrong. Steve Ballmore on the iPhone, etc. I'm going to keep things fairly general. And the other thing that I've done is I crowd sourced other web developers to get their opinions, get their ideas. Because one of the things that's shown about making predictions from research around it is that if you ask lots of experts and you do things like averaging their opinions and things like that, it can help you to make better predictions. I haven't been that scientific. I just put it out on Twitter. I've got a few Twitter responses, but I have asked a few experts and we're going to show some of their responses as we go through in the slides. And what I would also like to do at the end is just to throw it open to all of you here in the room and get some of your ideas too. So I've just broken the web down into these four topics. I'm going to start with mobile because mobile obviously by 2020 should be even more old news for most of us by then. But it's worth remembering that even now in 2015 still only less than a third of the world have smartphones and only about two thirds of the world have a mobile phone at all. So it's pretty cool that by 2020 90% of the world over the age of six should own a mobile phone and smartphones should account for two out of every three of those connections predicted. So we really are starting to get to a stage where we can be truly global. And hopefully the web will have really caught up on those key native app features that we've all come to know and love, like rich offline experiences, being able to do background syncing, having push notifications that work like they do with native apps so the web app doesn't even need to be open, it can just pop up when it's ready. These are some service workers by the way. So service workers is really exciting for hopefully having that resolved in the next hopefully couple of years. And I think we're going to see that trend continuing with web and native blurring, the lines between them blurring. This is Android Lollipop which most of you may well know by now has done a pretty cool thing for web apps because in the recent view where you get to scroll through your apps that you've got open it shows web applications now as their own frame, their first class citizens in the operating system they're not just hidden within Chrome, the web browser. And also pretty new I think is the web application manifest spec which I think you can already use now in Chrome on Android which gives you a nice way of defining things like your title and your logo to add it to your home screen. So what I'm hoping we'll get to by 2020 is the best of the web having something that is instantly accessible, universally accessible and also the best of native. Now this is hot off the press today. I just managed to squeeze this in at the last minute. This is a gif showing the new app install banners that is coming with Chrome 42 which is the beta channel right now. And hopefully if we run through it at least once so you can see this gives you the chance to have these little banners that pop up at the bottom asking if you want to add it to your home screen. So it's a very native like experience for your web apps. Next graphics. So we heard a bit earlier about Glimmer which I think sounds really cool how it's taking inspiration from things like React and potentially going a step further by the sounds of it. And so hopefully in the next couple of years we're going to get to the stage where we have fast user interfaces by default. So at the moment it's a pain. If we want to have user interfaces that feel really slick and smooth like the native companions we tend to have to do a lot of work to optimise. We have to be very careful and we can just easily do something that slows it down. Hopefully we'll get to the stage where everything's really fast unless we do something really stupid and mess it up and then it goes slow. I think hopefully we'll see WebGL no longer just being for demos which it still seems to be pretty much at the moment even though it's now of course on iOS. And I think one thing to remember is that WebGL is not just for 3D content but we can also use it for 2D content and making 2D graphics really fast something that libraries like PixiDS do. I think Unity could become a big platform for the web now that Unity 5 has a WebGL exporter I think it's just come out of beta in the last week or two. Unity is obviously a really popular platform for game development I think we'll start to see some really cool games coming through on the web from that and I think it will be interesting to see what people use with Unity as well as just games and other kinds of rich interactive media as well. WebGL isn't just standing still WebGL 2 was recently previewed that's in the works. Cronos Group who are the standards body behind WebGL are also working on Vulkan which is the successor to OpenGL which is set to try and compete better with the Metal API that Apple have been working on so we should be getting even better faster 3D graphics that we can run on mobile devices and have some amazing experiences but it's worth remembering that we don't have to go crazy with whizzy 3D content all the time simple user interfaces are obviously most often the best for user experience and we've actually seen design trends like flat design and material design tending towards nice clean simple interfaces they do have some whizzy effects in terms of this kind of pseudo 3D effects and things like that but they are quite subtle and it keeps it quite simple and I think the complexity really will go behind the user interface will have more and more complex systems going on in the background. Then the network so by 2020 we should have 5G rolled out so if you're fortunate enough to be in an area of coverage it could be pretty cool because you can hope to expect something perhaps even greater than 1 gigabit per second but we shouldn't let this make us complacent about the bandwidth especially because we've been seeing the trends that websites are still getting slower because we're throwing so much more down the pipe we're throwing big images and videos this is the top e-commerce sites I think from 2012 to 2014 and you can see the page load times of those has been going up a lot I think we'll also have a further rise of video in streaming this is one of my crowd source contributions here talk and video will become ubiquitous as texting is now and interestingly since he sent that we had the whole Meerkat app explosion in the last couple of weeks if we all seen Meerkat the app the talk of Silicon Valley so this is all going to give rise to a data explosion this is graph showing 2014 to 2019 mobile data traffic and you can get a sense of how much we're expecting that to explode so we need some things to help hopefully HTTP2 will help this is an unofficial logo and this is already in the works I think it's already in Chrome but behind a flag is that right? and Google have said that they're planning to move support for speedy in early 2016 so they're obviously hoping that the HTTP2 will be ready enough by then and taken off well enough be better down enough that they can switch that off and we can be moved over to HTTP2 and it's pretty interesting to think about how this is going to affect web development because it's going to change a lot of the best practices around optimisation and things like just bundling up all our javascript resources into a single file all of those kinds of things the best practices will start to change and so it may actually turn web development on its head do you see what I did there? another trend we may see is the rise of peer to peer this is another submission from Twitter what I see is that encrypted streaming forms of sound and video messaging will become standards and directly peer to peer and I think we will see WebRTC having a big role to play in this WebRTC I haven't been hearing that much about recently but it seems to be quietly growing and I think Google Hangouts now uses WebRTC so I think we're going to be seeing some interesting innovation around that a couple of people mentioned about HTTPS because HTTPS will no longer be optional for things like service workers we're going to have to use that and so hopefully we'll see that HTTPS having SSL for our sites is going to be free and easy hi SSL is kind of busy by the form it's kind of the whole idea of HTTPS ok great so I need to read up about that so maybe HTTPS2 will help that too next interfaces I'm not going to talk much about smartwatchers because it's in the news and everywhere at the moment there's a lot of news and commentary on it I think I would just say that they might be kind of cool for a while and I think Apple will probably make some really good margins on this because they are selling them selling them for so much I don't think they will be the next smart phones because we already have smart phones not I don't think going to actually replace that for us I think it's interesting to start thinking about how these things are going to connect and combine and augment with each other and I do think the whole wearable space is interesting for fitness and quantified self and those kind of themes anyway Brett Victor had a great rant a while back about pictures under glass and how all of these ways that we interact with digital content now are essentially just pictures under glass things that we prod with our finger or swipe around and so I think it's going to be interesting to see how much of a trend in the next five years we have of things coming out from behind the screen and having other kinds of ways of interacting ways that are more natural for us using our hands in natural ways for example and one of those could be virtual reality one of the responses there sudden rush of VR devices released onto the market of course we have things like the Oculus Rift that are coming fairly soon I have tried a few of them and I think they have a lot of power in that first experience that first time you put them on and you have that wow factor of suddenly having that feeling of presence that you've been transported to another place my worry is just that that novelty may wear off especially when you have the issues around nausea and people not being really able to use these things for long periods I know the Samsung Gear VR instructions say that you should have a 15 minute break every 30 minutes and so I think they've certainly got quite a long way to go but do I think that in five years time this could be a big deal I think yeah probably it could so I'm especially interested in virtual reality and augmented reality merging which is something we're starting to hear more about now with things like the magic leap which has been fairly closely guarded as a secret until recently where they've just been starting to give interviews about it essentially if you haven't heard about it it's like tiny projectors that project light into your eyes but it does it in a clever way to merge it with the light that you're already getting from your surroundings by having a kind of spatial 3D camera it can actually do it in such a way that it can project things as though they're in your environment with you so that could be pretty neat it's going to take a bit of development Holographic user interfaces HoloLens of course we had the announcement about recently and I think they're actually planning to release the first version sometime this year 2015 so it sounds really ambitious I did hear from someone who had spoken with someone who tried it and they said it pretty much does live up to what they were saying which kind of surprises me because most of the videos you see for these things Meta for example when you try it out you realise okay the video really was kind of selling a vision it doesn't really accurately portray how these things work right now but anyway HoloLens should be really interesting and by five years from now I think that could be something not haptics as well as Brett Victor said it's not that much good just to swipe your hand across some glass when you want to actually interact with different kinds of content this was a tablet that I tried last year at mobile world congress that actually had a simple kind of haptic effect as you run your finger across the glass so you could kind of feel the bumps of the alligator there that's pretty rudimentary but I think haptics as a trend should get really interesting in fact the Apple Watch of course has some kind of haptic effect with the heart beat transmission that it does I think it's an interesting trend anyway with physical and digital world blurring we're seeing an explosion of smart objects this is just the latest example that I saw which is a smart rope and first of all it counts the number of jumpers the number of jumps that you're doing and it has one of those persistent LED effects so it actually displays in front of you the number of steps that you made which is kind of cool but this is obviously just one of millions now of smart objects that are starting to crop up we're seeing so many of these kinds of things come up on Kickstarter now a lot of them powered by Bluetooth Low Energy and I think we'll see a whole lot more of that as well which is why Google are working on their physical web project which is about getting the web ready for this internet of things explosion having these smart objects and having a standard way that you can interact with them so say you go the bus stop is an example that they have you should just be able to tap something and instantly connect with that and get the bus times from it etc humans and machines blurring okay this is getting a little bit more out there now but I think this is potentially a we'll see some more innovation in this space in the next five years anyway things like smart clothing these are smart tattoos and as a recent back channel article said step by step we're integrating computing into ourselves it's kind of like the next extension of wearables but that's maybe going a little bit too far out there now there's probably not really in 2020 so coming back down to earth what browsers will we have to support in 2020 well this is an article from Paul Irish about what the browser line up line up might be like and of course we've got a lot of internet explorers with their release cycle actually we should cross off 8, 9 and 10 here because those should be officially sunset by 2020 but yeah we're still going to have probably a lot of different versions of IE especially and a couple of the other responses on Twitter there'll still be millions of JavaScript frameworks and it's all going to get more and more confusing so how can the web keep up with all of this how can it keep pace and how can we keep up as web developers well one way or one thing that should help is the browser moving more to this low level API model having something that we can extend and we can build out our features and libraries on top of those and then as they become standards they get rolled into further standards but the browser gives us a lot more power and a lot more functionality by exposing things in a more low level way and that's essentially the extensible web manifesto and browsers experimenting early Mozilla and Google are already working on WebVR which lets you just build web applications that interface with your virtual reality headset and we've already had this working with the Oculus Rift which is pretty neat and so yes great how the web browsers are already working on this trying this out is pre standardisation but they have these separate browser bills that you can go and download and you can start trying it out and giving them feedback of course we can continue to collaborate on open source and share things with each other and that will help us all to keep pace and we should have a rise of modularisation and reusability with this trend towards componentisation and so of course we've got web components, polymer react components and components in other frameworks also I tried FT's origami service today and that worked really well JavaScript should get better too this is a slide from jQueryConf just a week or so ago I hadn't realised but it sounds as though ES6 is now ES2015 and they're moving more to releasing features when they're done and so as we've seen from the things that are going into these future versions of ECMAScript JavaScript should get a lot better and it should be better development language for us to build things on top of but we'll still be able to use whatever our favourite language is so Michael said their explosion of client-side languages compile your favourite language to JavaScript and Mike said I reckon someone is going to make a web framework on Swift and it will be cool for a few months another interesting aspect of this is asm.js and I think that is what Unity will do so perhaps we'll start seeing that rise as this subset of JavaScript that is frequently compiled down to from these other languages we might also start having more artificial intelligence style tools that will help us as developers I don't think in by 2020 the robots will have killed us yet I think that we hopefully also won't have annoying clippy style hamsters that ask us things like this but I do think that there will certainly be a trend towards tools getting more and more intelligent and doing more of this grunt work for us perhaps kind of off the top of my head things like internationalisation with computers becoming much better and better at translating between languages perhaps almost all of that can be automated in the future and you press a button and you have your site translated things like that anyway I think it would be really interesting to see where we get to in five years and you never know I feel he said I predict cold fusion will have a resurgence it just makes sense final thought we can influence the future we as web developers have a great opportunity to contribute to the standards in these future directions and the way the web goes so it's a great place to be and now I would like to ask you all you're very welcome to ask a question if I can hopefully answer it as well but I would like to throw it out to you and say what do you think will have changed by 2020 anyone have any thoughts that you would like to share anything you think I've gotten wrong or any big things you think I've missed out one of the things you didn't say explicitly that I read through the whole thing is I think it was Ray Kurzweil actually who said he felt that technology throughout time has always been moving closer and closer to our bodies and you talked about the VR and the tactile response and a number of things where in the next five years we're going to be interacting directly with our senses so the mobile was a step closer but maybe it's going beyond mobile and it's more directly interfacing with our senses I'm probably the oldest person in the room I guess are more of the older people the only one probably who has hearing aids and they're a high-tech hearing aids and I can basically hear it's an airplane device so I can basically hear whatever I like through them and I found it surprisingly functional and I'm surprised that with the high margins of things like Beats headsets and the focus on audio that we're not talking about that a little bit and that why aren't why isn't because vision is an obvious thing and it's kind of sexy but it's a lot harder to pull off than audio and without anyone actually targeting audio I'm able to being the one guy in a room of 50 people use it without anyone building an application for it I just use Google Maps I put my phone in my pocket and I have this little person whispering in my ear it's great it's a reminder me of a couple of things that I thought about but I didn't include actually so the whole thing about augmenting ourselves with technology another prediction for 2020 is that it's the first year that the Paralympics the athletes in the Paralympics may outperform in general the normal Olympics participants in the equivalent fields because they'll have these amazing smart prosthetics with the trend that we sort of have seen with Blade Runner and these things becoming intelligent as well perhaps or having more technology built into them could potentially do amazing things and also to do with our senses I missed out the whole voice recognition thing which I think will also be another trend and it is interesting to think about how the web really is only sense it's only really our visual sense primarily in some audio and it kind of makes you laugh but things like smell and taste before yesterday actually I was thinking that's a little bit silly and a bit far off actually I almost got convinced by a presentation I went to yesterday at the wearable tech show which is about someone talking about digitising food and being able to send a cake to your grandmother over the internet and have it printed out and those kinds of things and I also recently saw a prototype for a smell of vision with virtual reality that kind of gives you the smell effect when you're in VR which is maybe a bit scary I think another thing you can see it in Kickstarter and it's maybe five years before it's actually legitimate technology but being able to scan food and being able to really understand the nutrients and the food quality is going to completely revolutionise the whole food process industry we live in this world in which we depend on a labeling system which is very broken and consumers can actually test for themselves and no one's regulating how much they can see all of a sudden the lights are on and people can see and they can choose the whole industry's new chain and it'll be good for us I think I have a more basically the new humans company will essentially die out because it's going to be companies like Amazon, Google, Facebook whatever infrastructure providers and we have billions of indie developers and designers and because the minimum small and insumist companies can't compete with Google for infrastructure and they also can't compete with small developers on innovation so they're just essentially dying out banks as well because you'll get to the point where you don't even notice how you're paying with Apple Pay banks can't compete with Google on Apple Pay for example so essentially the future is like you have such providers you want to be a new developer designers and people and they've built enterprises and AI prototypes which eventually get going out I know what you mean is when you think about artificial intelligence when you need that infrastructure it's going to be the companies that get to the stage where they're able to build out these things that will have a big advantage but on the flip side though you will hopefully get companies that provide some of these things as a service to other developers and you'll be able to use this AI agents or machine learning services and hook off the back of those but yeah I guess there probably will be more and more power guys today my arm is a little bit more web centric I battled with the new top level domains it's a love hate thing .coffee don't know whether I love that I think a lot of developers will probably share the same thing just get the .com and own it but consumers will make top level domains mainstream and you'll see businesses need various top level domains to compete and the top level domains themselves will be very single purpose whereas beforehand you'd have a company website and you'd have everything underneath it you may start to see a coffee shop just having the .coffee and it's just a location or the .car or the .something else so it might be that sites get smaller but more dispersed this is a good point yeah I hadn't thought about that it also reminds me that another thing I didn't mention was IPv6 and how that can hopefully help to pave the way for some of this internet of things kind of explosion with everything having it's own address but yes so imagine like a background work like a service worker and a service worker as well they all live on the .worker domain obviously oh okay guess I need to buy the .worker domain now cool oh yeah Keely and another which is already a part development environment will actually become a design environment what it is right now I know that Google is actually working with the designers to make regions animations color picking that kind of stuff much more accessible to non-engineers and so I think that we can see why too many Photoshop comps and that kind of stuff so I really hope we're going to see that new trend of designing a browser coming to more product people designers, UX people designing interaction designers and new stuff and also maybe we'll be able to center vertically stuff in CSS yes but that's a bit fun no that won't happen by 2020 yeah it's really interesting to think about where the expertise is going to lie on how much kind of computers are going to do more and more mentioning design kind of reminded me about if you've seen the grid I think the grid IO which is basically artificial intelligence website design and it kind of picks images for you and kind of tints them for you and crops them for you and actually does that to the extent that it arranges a whole website for you and the idea is that you don't need a web designer because you can just use this service and it will create the whole website quick I think that obviously one thing is that as you kind of commoditize some of the development work and turn that into the services that people can do easily then by that time the state of the art has gone further ahead and then developers are doing more and more interesting cutting edge things still so it's definitely interesting you know with the whole AI rise though oh hi you talked about peer-to-peer IPv6 which affects everything in public IP internet of things which leads to security and password management which is the problem we still haven't solved and what is it, 20% of passwords are passwords? yeah that's a great point I think if you pin numbers I think in five guesses you can get to 30% of pin numbers it's a problem that humans are bad at remembering passwords and computers are good at guessing we're going to need to find a solution to that otherwise all our days are in the problem do you think we'll end up having the touch ID for the web or something along those lines perhaps that only works if we have a device to touch so if we're not next to a device if we're not saying cloning those if they don't know some politician it's like they've got a picture of their thumb and they recreate their thumb for it but it's not yeah that's just going to be tricky nature keeps inventing and that's a cool problem that reminds me also another thing I didn't mention was permissions app permissions we really need to solve that with the web don't we hoping by 2020 we'll have that solved we're going to act directly cool how much more time have we got let's see should we wrap up should we see if anyone else has got any yeah is everyone feeling ready for the pub I was going to ask one question as well I don't really have a solid prediction on this but I'm very curious to see what tools we're using in 2020 and whether we're still using text evidence from the 70s and also in terms of what we're doing for the server side pieces of our applications things like Amazon's Lambda service where it's going to store a function into some cloud infrastructure and things like that I sort of don't see things like Rails and .NET going away by 2020 but maybe we will have this completely completely new model of building applications yeah it's it's I think when we're using these we're already having more and more doing little intelligent kind of corrections or suggestions and things for us I think we'll see more that rise more and more and so I guess that maybe the trend will be that we'll be typing out quite a lot less it will be scaffolding things figuring out what to put around what we're doing maybe more maybe we'll possibly in 2020 we might also be talking a bit more to computers because we can actually generally talk faster than we can type and if that gets clever enough possibly start giving it verbal instructions I think that could be interesting in any way in a few years if you check out three lines about AI basically it's sales and no machines written in our line so what we'll do we can basically drive and drop the AI back end in its rides, sales, services and no machines being combined in a way and in a few when I try to drop some of those not there because it won't fly from normal machine so it can like design scalable back end with drive drop cool I don't know how the world is in that thanks alright and thank you very much thank you