 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the access to trader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Cheers to the weekend and really, really cheers to the weekend. I needed this weekend to really decompress, get my thoughts back into reality kind of unwind. The last two days of the week was some of the craziest action that I think I can remember in a very, very long time. We'll get to that in a second. If you are brandy to the channel guys, all we ask is just literally take one second. All we ask is take one second, click that like button, share, subscribe, come aboard. Again, the broadcast goes out Monday through Thursday and again on the weekend. So thank you very much for spending a couple of minutes of your time. So you're not going to get really, if you're a passive investor or a part-time trader, you're really not going to see the scoreboard really dictate how crazy the market was, especially from Thursday into Friday. If you look at the scoreboard, the S&P down 1%, the NASDAQ down 0.8% and the Dow slumped about 2.3% for the week. The craziness had all to do with, once again, my theory of the Fed governors, right? And it feels like there's 10,000 of them. The Fed governors, in my opinion, they get paid by the word. They don't get a salary. They literally get paid by the word. If you look at the history of Fed speakers, I'm doing this for 25 years. I don't remember up to about five years ago that there was so many Fed speakers throughout the day. And if you go through the data, and again, you could go on 3,000 different websites to look at all the data that came out this week. Again, when the market was closed for Good Friday, so you had the PCE data, and you had your jobs data throughout the week, and you had your jobless claims. Again, you could go to any other website, read the hard facts for yourself and determine how you implement that into your world. But here we speak from the point of view of the trader. From the point of view of a person who is in the trenches day in, day out, the good, the bad, the ugly, the horrific, that I want to punch myself in the throat type of scenario and all that comes into a wonderful trading career, right? And hopefully you guys will share that journey for many, many years to come. But the craziness started going back to Wednesday into Thursday. Thursday there was about, I would say, five or six Fed speakers throughout the day. The last one that spoke was Kashkari. Keep this in mind. All these Fed speakers are speaking literally on the same thing that the ultimate Fed speaker, Jay Boogie, right? Jay Boogie, pal. He's the end-all be-all. All the rest of them are just like me, me, me, me, me, me, right? They're all reiterating the same crap that Jay Boogie's been spewing for the last couple of years. We're monitoring inflation. Our goal is to get inflation down, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. The problem is a lot of these Fed speakers, they're not even voters, okay? Hence Kashkari. So if you guys remember what happened on Thursday, we had an incredibly really strong session. Tesla was going nuts. Meta was going nuts. The market was going great. It's absolutely great. And then around one o'clock, Kashkari started speaking. And then he started saying some not friendly things to the market. What are you shocked about as a trader? Are you really thinking a non-voter is going to really put the nail in the coffin on the inflationary conversational piece? Probably not. But in this type of environment, the market is so sensitive. There's so many different variables that market doesn't need any reason to come in. Kashkari started opening up his mouth and he said, wow, we don't know about the cuts. We might still kind of hold the flow. We don't know. We just don't know. The market just didn't like that. So for the incredible progression the market had, and again, some of the biggest cult names were really going nuts. Tesla had a phenomenal move. One of the strongest moves I can remember in the last calendar year on Tesla, Intra Day on Thursday, we'll get to more in Tesla in a second. But the market just got absolutely bamboozled. Absolutely bamboozled. And the cues, just to give you an idea, this is Kashkari, not Jay Boogie. Kashkari speaking, a non-voting member. The Nasdaq cues, the Q2 cues went from 447 all the way to 438. You had a $9 move, literally a $9 move in a single candle. Excuse me, a $12 move in a single candle on the cues. And the worst part about that was I was buying, we had a pretty good morning with Metta and so forth and so on. I was buying the dips, right? I was buying the dips on Thursday. And the one thing what I do is when I buy dips, I only buy dips in the afternoon. I only trade in the afternoon if I'm going to take that stock overnight. Because if it closes strong, I'll take it overnight. So I was buying the dips on Tesla and I was buying the dip on Metta. And the news came out that he was talking, I was like, all right, whatever. They came in to support, they started balancing, and then they avalanche. The absolute avalanche came in, as you can see here, just the market got absolutely destroyed. So I wound up giving back about 65% of my day on Thursday's session. And as you can imagine, any trader traded on Thursday, the amount of pissed offness, if that's a right word. I don't mind giving back some money. That's not the point. I mind just giving away my money by a non-voting member who is the sixth man on the totem pole to speak for the day. So the moral of the story is very simple. Chris Rock said, and one of his stand-up years ago, that nothing good happens after 3 a.m., right? Nothing good. If you catch yourself in a cash machine after 3 a.m., you're up to no good. Same thing kind of goes with the market. If you're trading after 2 o'clock, nothing good is going to happen. It's just 99% of the time, nothing good is going to happen. You're going to get some fetch-mocked speaking, getting paid by the word. You're going to get some geopolitical news coming out from the Ukraine, NATO, not NATO. You're going to get nonsense one after another. And the moral of the story is about 12 years ago, I made a very, very conscious decision, right? The only way I would trade in the afternoon is if I'm literally looking to buy that stock or short that stock overnight, other than that, I don't do it because the channels contract and whatever you like in the afternoon, you got to love in the morning because they expand, people are chasing. And the moral of the story is I stopped trading the afternoon for many, many years. And the biggest problem a lot of new traders have is they continue to trade in the afternoon the same way they're trading in the morning, not realizing channels are contracting. And what happens is they give back 50%, 100% of their day. So the biggest thing, the biggest takeaway I had about 12, 13 years ago, I just stopped trading in the afternoon. We have a four-hour window in the morning up to about one o'clock. And then everything else if you want to do, you want to do it on overnights. But you'll notice if you stop trading majority of the days in the afternoon, you'll notice a 30% to 40% increase in your performance throughout the year. Try that. If you're seeing yourself constantly losing back or giving back money in the afternoon, just cut yourself off. You'll start to see really, really good performance throughout the years. It was one of those light bulb moments in my career about 12, 13 years ago. So it's very, very important. But if that wasn't crazy enough, right? That wasn't crazy enough. Look what happened the next day. The next day we rallied. We literally rallied the next day and pretty much reclaimed back the previous day's channel. So Cash Carey basically did absolutely nothing but screwing anybody who bought the dip for that day into a complete destruction cycle because the bulls did buy the dip back the next day. And they traded right back three quarters of the bar that it lost. So really, really just a crazy, crazy 24 hours. And by the way, if that wasn't crazy enough, we had a freaking earthquake. Seriously, bro, we had earthquake in the middle of the day. Here in New Jersey, I think that was the epicenter of it. I just felt my, you know, fully guys in the webinar, you heard my desk shake. Literally, you heard my desk shake. So we had an earthquake. We had a crazy reversal bar on Thursday. And if that wasn't enough, here was the saga of Tesla. It actually Tesla saved the day on Friday, which is really, really good. So if you look at Tesla's chart, right? If you look at Tesla's chart, Tesla had a phenomenal run. Okay. Wednesday into Thursday, huge, huge run of only to give back that move on the cash carry comments. And what happened was Friday, all the stocks were rallying. And Tesla is pretty much flat on a day, up a little bit, down a little bit. And then the news breaks, right? So news breaks that Reuters reported. It wasn't some schmuck on Instagram or on Twitter or on TikTok. It was Reuters. Reuters reports. So let me see, let me see where we kind of, where are you? So Reuters reports that Tesla is pretty much done, right? Pretty much done with their cost-cutting cars, blah, blah, blah, whatever the hell it may be, right? So the stock gets absolutely killed. And the good part about, you know, training the same stocks over and over again, I was aware of the levels. Everybody was aware of the levels. We knew the levels, the opening range lows of 167. We knew the previous lows of 163. And we knew the macro lows of 16050. So the news came out, right? The news came out. Tesla starts, you know, Tesla starts getting killed. Actually, the news is Tesla was scraping its low-cost vehicle program, right? That was the initial headline coming out of Reuters. And then Elon Musk came out. Elon came out and said, nah, son, and how the kids say these days, you're capping, bro, right? So the stock starts exploding back, absolutely exploding back. And if that wasn't enough, after the close, Elon Musk announced an actual date. I think it was August the 8th that they are going to introduce their robot taxes, right? Their robot taxes. So the madness, the wildness, everything a little crazy involved. Just an absolutely of a whirlwind a week. By the time Friday came along, I was mentally drained. I didn't want to talk to anybody. I didn't want to think about anything. Thank God for Tesla really, really saved the day on Friday. He gave us an incredible pivot and came down all the way down to the February 14 lows, which that now becomes the line in the sand. So overall solid week, a crazy week. And I'm just happy the weekend is here. So cheers to the weekend. Other than that, here's the macro view of the markets. You have the cues giving an inside day. Yeah, inside day of five. That's an inside day considering the $12 reversal they had the previous day. So here's the major levels for the cues for all you guys are trading on the ETF side. Thursday, we tested the 50-day moving average. The low here is 435. The bear case is if the bulls give up that 435 on the 50-day support, we're going to go lower. Okay, that's the big, big level. 435 now is a massive line in the sand. For the bulls to reclaim control, we need to reclaim back Friday's channel, which also is the 10-day moving average, which is 443. So 443 upside, 435 downside. That's the key levels. Everything else means absolutely nothing from the macro case. When you look at all the other stocks, let's talk about some technology names, you'll see some pretty good strength and you'll see some continuously disconnect. So Microsoft had a really, really good week, had a really good week, even on that sell-off held support. Guys, let's definitely watch Microsoft this week. If they could just get above this March highs channel, I think this thing goes back to the highs. This is a really, really good-looking chart. Amazon, right? Amazon, if you've been watching this broadcast the last couple of days, Amazon finally broke out. I believe they got upgraded on Friday, putting in its highest close. If the market continues, keep an eye on Amazon above Friday's channel. That looks really good. Meta is a monster, absolute monster. It broke out this week. Not only did it reclaim support, right? On the previous day, it took out the previous day's highs. Meta continues to go higher. I still like Meta if the market continues to go. Tesla is a little bit weird, right? A little bit weird. So that sell-off got it down to the penny, by the way, to the absolute penny, to the February 14 lows. That now obviously is the line of the sand going into the future. The key for Tesla is to get above back the 20-day moving average. Is this news that Elon Musk confirmed on the road by taxis being introduced? August the 8th, is it going to be enough to get Tesla above the 20-day moving average to be determined? But at least we know the 20-day moving average, the bulls need to reclaim and the bears need to reclaim or at least get through Friday's lows and the February 14 lows for the next leg down. The crazy part about this is, and I tweeted this out, right before Elon Musk said, nah, bro, you capping? Sounds so good saying that too. A buyer came in literally 10 seconds before Elon said that they came in with a 3.3 million bet for the June 145 puts. Not good. Not good. That guy got absolutely manslaughter as soon as the news came out. But you can see the aggressive nature, especially on that sell-off. NVIDIA is a little bit of no mans land, right? So NVIDIA had a major technical damage on Thursday. It went through the 20-day moving average that we've been talking about for the whole part of the week and Friday putting it inside day. Here's what NVIDIA needs to do. The bulls need to get back above the 10-day moving average, which is basically the highs from last Thursday. The bears, and you can see here, there was a double bottom. Friday stopped exactly where the Thursday's lows was. So the NVIDIA needs to lose Thursday and Friday's lows where it held support twice. And the bulls once again need to get back above the 10-day moving average. A name like Apple continues to be in no mans land as well. Every single time it tries to rally, it gets rejected. Again, it's getting very, very close to the bottom macro channel. AMD is kind of in the same boat as NVIDIA. The only difference is AMD is below the 50-day moving average, and that's a very, very big deal. If AMD, and again, you can see here, back-to-back days held support at the bottom of the channel, if AMD starts losing that bottom of the channel, then you have more room to the downside. Some names that I definitely like going into this week. Let me give you guys some names as well. Technical names. Let me take a look. Let me take a look. Yeah, take a look. I like Rivian short. Rivian has held the bottom of the range that started on February 250 times. Literally, 250 times. You can see 1, 2, 5, 7, 2, 3, 4, 250 times. If it finally loses, if it finally closes below the February lows, this Rivian is going to go lower. It's not going to be a day train. It's not going to be sexy. But if the Rivian finally closes below this macro range, this thing will go lower. SOLV. Nice pivot on Friday on SOLV. It was a reversal Thursday up on Thursday, followed by on Friday. Guys, watch SOLV. It's a recent IPO. If it can get above this linear regression line next week, this thing might really start to expand. So keep an eye on that as well. Reddit is a two-sided trade on Reddit coming up. As you can see here, Reddit has been rejected to the upside twice in the same area. Right at the five-day support. If Reddit could get back above the five-day support, you might get a move owing back to the $51 area. Having said that, it's held the bottom of the range as well. This is something that you have to watch this week as well. So if Reddit loses the bottom of the range, which is the IPO lows, you can start its next leg down. Another recent IPO, ALAB. You have the same thing with ALAB as you did with Reddit. ALAB's got rejected off the 10-day moving average now three times, once, twice, three times. The upside, the bulls need to get back above the 10-day, and the bears need to get below the April first lows for a potential move back to its lower IPO channel. Other than that, again, crazy market. Always a reminder, folks. You don't need to trade every single day. My process is I trade channels. Long, short, it doesn't make a difference. I trade channels. I also trade channels in the 10 most aggressive stops. Your Teslas, NVIDIAs, Alizons of the world. But if you're trading and your process is based on daily charts, a lot of stocks are still in the middle of that channel. So it's very, very important, especially for option players. If you're buying premium and stocks are generally stock in the middle of the channel, your premium is going to go to hell in a handbasket. So it's very, very important to use discipline, right? To have to put on your big boy, big girl pants and realize you can't trade every day because your process might not be highlighted every single day. But for all you guys who are brand new, take that little piece of advice from me. If you don't need to, don't trade in the afternoon. I'm telling you, you'll see a really big spike in your performance, 30%, 40%, maybe 50% throughout the year. Because again, whatever you like in the afternoon, you're going to love in the morning because people are chasing and channels are expanding in the morning while people are positioning and channels are contracting in the afternoon. Guys, God bless everybody. Have a wonderful weekend. And I will see you all on the field on Monday. Check it out.