Anthropic Decision Theory (sound improved)

(sound improved) Stuart Armstrong presents Anthropic Decision Theory at the May 2015 Cambridge Decision Theory Workshop.

The talk sets out to solve the Sleeping Beauty problem and various related anthropic (self-locating belief) problems, not through the calculation of anthropic probabilities, but through finding the correct decision to make. Given certain simple assumptions, it turns out to be possible to do so without knowing the underlying anthropic probabilities. Most common anthropic problems are underspecified from the decision perspective, and this can explain some of the differing intuitions in the subject: selfless and selfish agents, total and average utilitarians, will all reach different decisions in the same problem. These results are formalised into an anthropic decision theory, that is then used to solve many anthropic problems and paradoxes, such as the Presumptuous Philosopher, Adam and Eve, and Doomsday problems.

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