 We have got a pitcher's duel brewing out west between you, Darvish and Julio Urias for tonight, and both those guys are going to be near the top of our list for MLB DFS. The one question I have is, how do we rank those two guys? Should we rank Urias higher, Darvish higher, whatever it may be? We're going to break that down right now, get to set not just for that game, but also the entire slate of MLB DFS. So let's dive on in right now and get to set. Welcome on in to the heat check, or the solo shot that's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Clearly not totally locked in on a Monday morning. No idea what podcast we're in, but hey, we're here ready to talk some baseball for today. It is a six game slate with lockstep for 7.05 PM Eastern for tonight. There is one game at 7.05, the rest lock at 8.05 or later. So get those locks in for the first game and then you can tinker later on as well. Speaking of that 7.05 game, there is a chance of rain in Baltimore for tonight for the Orioles and the Astros. Looks like it should play based on the precipitation odds right now, but just keep an eye on that. And if it does play, assuming it does, winds are out to center at 11 miles per hour. So upgrade hitters for the Orioles and the Astros will talk about that game early in the stacking section for today. The winds are blowing in from left at 13 miles per hour at Wrigley for the Cubs and Cleveland. I downgrade hitters a decent amount in that game. In Minnesota, for the twins and the Reds, temperatures are just 66 degrees. Usually it's been higher in Minnesota recently. It's been the 90s a bit. So I would downgrade hitters a bit from where they've been previously at Target Field. In Arizona, they haven't said yet whether the roof will be open or closed, but the temperature is at 108. They usually leave it open if it's at like in the high 90s. But 108, they tend to close it. So I'm guessing it will be closed. I will treat it as such in the stacking section for today. So I'd assume the roof will be closed for today in Arizona. Might have an answer on that for today. For our 4 p.m. stream, we are back here once again at 4 p.m. on the Fandall YouTube, Twitch, Facebook, and Twitter pages where you can ask any question you've got about MLB DFS. Swing by 4 p.m. Eastern, no matter which platform you're watching on, you can ask your question. We'll answer it live here on air to get you set for today's slate of MLB DFS. Also, make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. A lot of good stuff going on there. This week, we have a PGA podcast via myself and Brandon Cadulla. And of course, MLB every weekday, and then we have USC, the Austin Swain, and I'll do some NASCAR on Friday to get you set for Pocono this weekend. 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Gambling problem, call 1-800-522-4700 in Colorado, in Iowa, 1-800-Bets off. In Indiana, 1-800-9 with it. For confidential help in Michigan, 1-800-270-7117 in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, call 1-800-gambler. In Tennessee, call the red line 1-800-89-9789 or in West Virginia, visit 1-800-gambler.net. Pitching preview for this Monday main slate. You, Darvish, the headliner in that duel is $10,000, followed by Frankie Montas at $9,500. Julio Uriás facing Darvish is $9,000. Then Tyler Malley, Albert Alsolet, and Aaron Savalli are the others at $8,000 or higher. Now, my favorite pitcher of the night is going to come from that Dodger's Padres game, the battle between Darvish and Uriás. But it's not the guy at the top of the salary pool. I like Uriás a lot, and I think I'm going to rank him over U-Darvish for the $1,000 discount. Uriás has been pitching really well this year. He opened the year with minimal curveball usage, but he's been back to his normal levels over his past 11 starts. To me, that's the most relevant sample in Uriás in that time. He has a 3.15 skill interactive ERA with a 29% strikeout rates and a 4% walk rate. Those numbers are better than Darvish in all three categories. He's also letting up just a 31% hard hit rate. That mark is basically equal to Darvish's. So effectively, they've been very similar this year in the key categories that we turn to first. There are two differences for them for today. The second one is something we'll focus on most when we go through Darvish. But the big one is the matchup. The Padres actually struggle against lefties. They have a 91, a WRC plus with the lowest ISO on the slate. They're not a big strikeout team, so that does prevent this from being a plus matchup for Uriás. But this team hasn't seen Uriás all year, the first time they've seen his stuff. And he said double digit strikeouts three times this year. All three have been the first time he's faced a team, and all three of those came on the road. I like his upside a lot, and I like it enough to put him at the top of my list. I think that a ranking Uriás versus Darvish, like straight up, maybe I would go, I mean, they're pretty even. But if you give me a $1,000 discount on a slate where my favorite stack has a lot of high salary batters, I'll take the discount in Uriás number one for today. Darvish will be second for me, and I'm a bit nervous about him. It's not just about the matchup. That does matter. The Dodgers still good, even after you downgrade them for all their injuries. But for me, it's more about Darvish's last start. His spin rate absolutely cratered in that start. It was down 158 revolutions per minute on his cutter. It was down 149 on his foreseam fastball. That is a massive deviation. And in a vacuum that might not matter, there are some guys who will see these spin rate decreases and they'll still be good. But Darvish wasn't super effective in that game. He had just a 9% swinging strike rate. Now, it could have been something weird with Coors Field. And at least one of Darvish's cutters registered at 1070 revolutions per minute, which is either a misfire or a misclassification. But even the maximums for Darvish were relatively low as well. I don't think it was just one pitch throwing off the entire spin rate discussion for Darvish. That's concerning enough for me to downgrade him a bit relative to where I've had him. The problem is there aren't a ton of great alternatives on this slate. It's a six game slate and Darvish has been a great pitcher for a long time. It was not just a product of, if he was using sticky stuff, that's not the reason he was great. He's been doing this for a long time and doing it very well for a long time. So I'm not crossing him off as a result of the reduced spin rate last time out. I'm just downgrading him from where I had him previously. And I think that a downgraded Darvish to me is ranked second on the slate behind a Rios. So it is a little bit nerve wracking with Darvish. And that's why I think that if I had a cash game lineup, I'd be going to the Rios over Darvish for today, but it's not a big enough concern where I just cross Darvish off, just downgrading him and putting him second behind a Rios for today. The third pitcher for me would be between two guys. Those guys are Frankie Montas and Tyler Malley. Montas has a big concern that pushes him down for me. And we'll talk about that in things to watch, which makes Malley my number three choice here at $8,800. It's a tough matchup. He stays in the Twins who just got Byron Buxton back, best hitter in baseball, obviously. And it means that Malley has to face a DH as well. So it's not an ideal situation for Malley, but we're looking for upside here because if you're going to the cash game lineup, I say you go Darvish or Rios. For me, it's probably a Rios, but that means we can take some risk if it comes with upside for the third pitcher on our list. And I believe that's the case here. Across 14 starts this year, Malley has a 3.47 skill-interactive ERA. His strikeout rate is 30%. He does let up a lot of fly balls, but his hard hit rate against is just 33%. That's much better than the league average. That hard hit rate against ranks third on the slate behind Darvish and Rios. The spin rate for Malley did go down his last time out, but his movements remained very similar to usual. That's what I want to look at because spin rate is what effectively leads to movement. Malley's movement was very similar, so I'm not going to downgrade him too much here. Plus, he was really good in that out. And that one was also on the road, like this one is today. His strikeout rate is actually a smidge higher on the road than it is at home. So no, if you're looking for a safe pitcher, you should not use Tyler Malley. He is very much not bad, but I think that it's very much within his range of outcomes to be the highest scoring pitcher on the slate, and not everybody can say that. So Malley is not someone to use if you don't like risk. I'm finding it in the right spots, and this just seems like the right spot to me. So proceed with caution if you are risk averse, but I think that if you're like me, shooting for upside, Malley does deserve to be third behind Rios and Darvish in that order. Let's move now to the stacking discussion. Part of the reason I was trying to take the discount on Rios over Darvish is that the Astros are the top stack on this slate by a decently wide margin, and they've got a lot of high salary guys who want to get to. So to me, I think the discount for Rios is enough to work as effectively a tiebreaker there. And I might rank Rios higher in a vacuum, but I think that out of the discount, it becomes pretty much a no brainer for me. The Astros are facing Keegan Aiken. Aiken is up to four starts since he joined the rotation, and he hasn't really stood out anywhere. He has a 5.01 skill interactive ERA with a 20% strikeout rates and an 11% walk rate. That has led to a lot of base runners, and then he's allowing a 39% hard hit rates with a 41% fly ball rate. When you let up a lot of base runners and don't suppress hard contact, you can get into big trouble pretty quickly, which is what happened for Aiken last time out against Cleveland. He let up eight runs in that game. He let up three runs to the raise across four innings to start before that. Now he has to face the Astros. So no, there's no Alex Pregman here. So you do downgrade the Astros relative to their baseline versus lefties, but it's still a 123 WRC plus versus lefties with a 17% strikeout rate. And now they get a big park factor upgrade in going to Baltimore. It is a stack that checks every box for me. So I want to get here for sure, even though we can acknowledge they will cost us a lot. You're Don Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Jose Altube are all $3,700 or higher. And yes, Alvarez is good even against lefties. So definitely want to get to him despite the lack of a platoon advantage. The two guys who stand out here as being like non-stud salaries but have upside are Uli Gouriel and Chas McCormick. Gouriel, much better DFS play versus lefties and righties. His ISO basically doubles goes to 281 from 142. He's $3,300. McCormick's probably going to hit second. He is $2,400. He has a 250 ISO against lefties with a ton of fly balls. His ISO overall, if you want to expand the sample is 264. So if you're looking for like the best hitting play on this slate relative to salary, it might be Chas McCormick at $2,400. Someone I want to build around, you can be a great one-off when you're not stacking the Astros, but a key piece when you are stacking the Astros. Let's hope he does hit second for today. Anything about six, I think he would still be the number one play for me. The number two stack is definitely the Reds. I mentioned before that the weather in Minnesota is not great for hitting, a little bit cold. But that's relative to what it usually is in Minnesota. Relative to this slate, it's fine. There are a couple indoor games. There are games out west. So the temperature here is not too bad. And the Reds should be able to make some hard contact here. They're facing Jay Hap. And Hap has been tinkering all year long. He's been trying to, I assume, increase his strikeout rates based on what he's been doing. And it seems to be inching up a bit. He's been using more forcing fastballs over his past six starts, his strikeout rate up to 18% in that time, which is an improvement from where it was previously. But the batted ball issues for Hap are still very much there. And 18% is not high enough for a strikeout rate if you're going to struggle with hard contact. Hap is allowing a 43% hard hit rate with a 51% fly ball rate. And that's in line with what they were at previously. They're actually worse than Acons, batted ball numbers. So if the matchups here were equal, I would rather stack against Hap. The matchups are not equal. The Astros very much a better team versus lefties than the Reds, but the Reds are really solid number two option after accounting for the fact they do get downgraded versus the lefty relative to where they're at versus the right. They also do gain a DH today, which helps out a lot. So we want to focus on the righties here with the Reds. My hope would be that in gaining the DH, they would get Aristides Aquino in the lineup. He hits for a ton of power overall and now adds the platoon advantage. So I'd be high on him if he gets in there. Tyler Stevenson is the other guy to bump up here at $2,500. Assuming he is the catcher for tonight. So Aquino Stevenson, couple value plays you can turn to if you're trying to jam in the high salary Astros. And I think that this should work. Given those guys plus McCormick, you might have enough flexibility to stack the Astros with Darvish as well and still be good to go there. Our third stack is a lot muddier. There's no clear option here. I'm kind of going to the Diamondbacks out of obligation. And I think that they do end up being third, but like my level of conviction in them, they're a full tier below the Reds is the way that I'd phrase this. They're facing Brett Anderson and Anderson was dominant last time out. He had nine strikeouts against the Reds, which is a very un-Brett Anderson like performance. It was especially surprising because he's one of those guys whose spin rate decreased big time following the sticky stuff meeting. And he's a sinker baller. You need movement on your sinker ball or at the sinker ball on your sinker. And if it's going to decrease, it's going to lead to a lot of bad stuff. So Anderson goes out and just beats. And I'm unsure what to think about that because he did make some changes. He threw more change ups, which are less dependent on spin rates, fewer sinkers. Maybe that is a good plan of attack for Anderson going forward. But if we look at the three starts for Anderson overall with the decreased movement on his sinkers, he has a 4.33 skill interactive ERA with a 16% strikeout rate. The hard hit rate is 50%. He is still letting up fly balls just 21% of the time. And that's why I hadn't been stacking against him previously. But I'm not sure if it's enough to wipe out the rest of the rough stuff in his profile, especially given the downtick in his movement starting three starts ago. And again, that 15% strikeout rate includes the nine strikeout game he had last time out. So I'm unsure of what to think here. If it were a bigger slate, I would likely avoid the situation. But for this specific slate, I do know that the Diamondbacks will at least get balls in play. And that's enough for me to say yes to stacking them as long as they are behind both the Reds and the Astros. With this one, we do want to be pretty strict in targeting the righties on the Diamondbacks. Anderson gets a ground ball 63% of the time against lefties, compared to 53% against righties with a lot more hard contact. And luckily, the Diamondbacks have a ton of switch hitters. So not too hard to dig out a righty here. The guys who stand out most to me are Christian Walker, Eduardo Escobar, Josh Rojas, Gatell Marte, all four of those guys of that righty, Walker and Rojas both $2,700. So whether it be the Astros of McCormick, the Reds, the Stephenson and Aquino, the Diamondbacks with Rojas and Walker, we should have the value to make the high salary hitters we want to use like Nick Castellanos, all those guys, Marte, Escobar, Alpube, Correa, Alvarez. We should have enough salary to make that work, even while getting to Darvish and Uriás as our pitchers for today, which makes this a pretty fun slate to break down. Let's finish up here with things to watch. I mentioned before that Frankie Montas has one massive flaw, and that flaw is his road strikeout rate. For the season, he has a 27% strikeout rate at home. It's 17% on the road. Now it's worth noting this is just a four game sample. He's been on the road just four games this entire year, and one of those was against the Astros. But if we toss the Astros game out, his other three road starts have been five, four and two strikeouts. So I am okay lowering Montas as a result of this. I wouldn't say cross him off as a result of that because maybe it's just a small sample fluke and he's facing the Rangers who will strike out, but it's okay. It's enough for me to put him beneath Mali for today. Montas would still be number four for me. I might not get there, but I would be open to it if you had a lot of conviction about Montas for tonight. I'm likely getting a questions in the 4pm show today about Albert Alsolet. He is facing Cleveland in good pitching weather, so the implied total there is low. I'm just not sure how long Alsolet will go tonight. He's coming off the injured list. He missed just 14 days. It's not a massive absence, but no rehab stints. They didn't always let him go super long to begin with, so I'm okay being low on Alsolet for tonight, seeing how he does here, and then potentially buying back in down the road once I know what his pitch count is and once I know he's still effective coming off of that injury. No Alsolet tonight for me, and that is the reasoning for that in case you get interested based on the implied total. I think the other side of that Diamondbacks Brewer's game is interesting for stacking. That's the Brewers against Meryl Kelly, and Kelly changing things up once again, going with more forcing fastballs and fewer sinkers. He hasn't fully turned the boat around. He's about average in most departments, like the plate discipline stuff and the batter ball stuff, so we don't necessarily need to stack against him, but the results in this stretch have been really bad. The Brewers definitely deserve to be in our rotation for stacking. I would say that the way I'm doing stacks for tonight is in tiers. The Astros are one in a tier of their own. The Reds are two, also in a tier of their own, and then the Diamondbacks and Brewers are in a third tier together and definitely below the Reds and the Astros, but that's the way I would consider them for tonight. Astros one, Reds two, and then Brewers and Diamondbacks in a third tier by themselves. That is all that we have here for today on The Solo Shot. Once again, we'll be back with you later on today, breaking down this slate and taking your questions live on air. So if you got questions about Montas, also anybody else, feel free to tune in today for PM Eastern on the Fandal YouTube, Twitch, Facebook, and Twitter pages. No matter where you're watching, we'll take your questions live on air to get you set for today's slate. Also, make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. If you have questions for me before 4pm, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fandal Podcast Network at Fandal Podcast. Big thank you to Calvin Theobald, our video producer for setting up the video broadcast for today. Thank you, Cal, as always, and thank you to everyone for tuning in. Good luck to you tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been the solo shot right here on the Fandal Podcast Network.