 Hello, everyone. Welcome to another capsule for international relations for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today, we speak about Sri Lanka once again. We have discussed it before, but the situation has continued to be very grave in Sri Lanka. None of the issues has been resolved. There are people on the streets. The peaceful demonstrations even turned violent a few days ago. Allegedly because of the supporters of the Prime Minister Rajapaksha faced the demonstrators. Following that, Prime Minister Rajapaksha himself had to resign and also go into hiding at the naval base according to reports. So, people continue to suffer. Prices have gone up every day by day. There is shortage of everything in the market and suffering and poverty are facing the people of Sri Lanka. Many efforts have been made, but now the focus is on the removal of the Rajapaksha as president also. The Prime Minister has resigned, but Mr. Gautabhaya Rajapaksha who is the president continues as president and the demonstrators are asking for his return to his village. Gautabhaya is the slogan that one hears all around the country. It is particularly the young people who have gone to the streets and they are demanding not just the question of price rise or the question of non-availability etc. But they want a complete change. They want the president to go. But the president is in no mood to go and he is trying to do various things in order to control the crowd. The army is dealing with them in one way, but he also wants to give them some kind of a hope. So, what he had done was for quite some time he has been asking the opposition parties to join his government and run something called a national government so that these problems can be handled without any differences among the political parties. So it's some kind of a wartime cabinet, but so far no opposition party was willing to join. The leader of the opposition, Mr. Premadasa, Sajith Premadasa was willing at one time but he had put up so many constraints, considerations and concerns and conditions in order to join the government. So what Mr. Rajabak said it was to choose an experienced politician, Mr. Ranil Vikramasinghe, who was prime minister five times already in Sri Lanka. So he is very experienced. He has dealt with several presidents, prime ministers and he has been a leader of his own political party. He is now appointed as the man of the hour, the man who can deal with this situation, but the president wants to continue himself. So he wants to continue and at the same time entrust the government to one of his rivals in a sense, who was earlier prime minister, Mr. Ranil Vikramasinghe. It appears that Mr. Vikramasinghe is a good choice if you look at his experience. As I said, he has been prime minister five times, which means he has dealt with the country's issues for a long time. He is also very well known in international circles, particularly the World Bank and IMF. The only organizations which can really rescue Sri Lanka from all the problems they are facing. Already discussions are taking place. Some World Bank officials are actually camping in Sri Lanka, but there is no credible policy put forward, particularly because of the struggle and the demonstrations and totally collapse of law and order. So what is required is a functioning government. And Mr. Ranil Vikramasinghe knows all these people. He is friendly to the western countries, Americans like him. He is friendly also to India rather than China, but even China, he is acceptable. And he is a very pleasant personality and is well known nationally and internationally. So it appears that he has chosen the right person, but many observers in Sri Lanka are pointing out many deficiencies of this arrangement. The first deficiency is the president is going to continue. The demand is for the president to resign. There is no question about it. So they welcome the resignation of his elder brother Mahindar as a prime minister. But now they want nothing short of the resignation of the president. So the greatest disadvantage Mr. Vikramasinghe will have in dealing with the problems is that he will be working under a president who has been rejected by the people. The second issue is that even though Mr. Vikramasinghe has much experience, he has not been a very successful politician because every time he became a prime minister, he could not complete his term for one reason or the other. Either he had difficulties with the president's concern or difficulties with his own party and he has not been very successful as a politician. And in the last elections, his party did not win a single seat, but he has one seat in parliament himself in the name of the representation people's representation formula. On the basis of the number of votes a political party gets, some national seats are actually given to that party and that party can nominate anyone as a member. And therefore, Mr. Vikramasinghe is a member of parliament, just one man from his party. The other political parties have still not joined him. And so the support that he is getting in parliament is only from the president's party as from Rajapakshay's party. So since Rajapakshay is discredited, for him to have only the supporters of the president in his cabinet, only four people have joined, is not a viable way to go forward. I mean, he is constrained by this that though he is from the opposition, he does not have anybody from the opposition to support him. And he is still trying to get as many of his friends as possible to join, but nobody wants to get into this mess, because getting into a position in Sri Lanka today is really getting into a mess and you may fail and you may get a bad name, you may get attacked or maybe threat to your life. So all these things that people do not want. But Mr. Vikramasinghe has shown courage. Of course, he may be happy to become Prime Minister. More than that, he is willing to try his hand and try to see whether he can help the president. And that is the other problem because he has helped Rajapakshay's, both the brothers in the past, and is known to be sympathetic to them, which the people do not like. The other reputation that he has is that he is a deal maker, not a really respected political leader. People think that he moves and shifts and so on and he is not particularly reliable when it comes to policies. And the last problem about him is that though he had tried several economic reforms when he was Prime Minister, he was not successful in any of them. And more than anything else, he is not an economist, he is basically a politician. So on the one hand, he has these advantages that he has the experience, he is popular with the West, he is friendly to India, China has no objection to him and his personality is very pleasant. But at the same time, he has no political support and is going to depend on the president's party. So even after he was appointed, people do not recognize him as a legitimate Prime Minister. Others, foreign diplomats, etc, are meeting him, but his efforts to get more of the political leaders into the cabinet has not succeeded. That is the first step he has to accomplish. If he can get Sajid Premadasa into the cabinet and others, other political parties into the cabinet, then he may be able to start working. At the moment, he is not even able to start working though he has been meeting people, etc. This morning, I saw an interview by the former president, Chandrika Kumar Thumge, to Karanthapur. Because Chandrika Kumar Thumge had once dismissed Vikram Singhya as Prime Minister. So we can imagine what her assessment is. But he said very openly to the interviewer that Vikram Singhya is not the man, he is not capable of doing it. And others are not likely to join him. He is seen as a cover to protect the president. Of course, Chandrika Kumar Thumge has put forward several proposals. We will not go into that now. But she has made very many proposals to reform the situation and save Sri Lanka. But nobody seems to be asking her and nor is she wanting to take over any official position. But she was very clear that he was not, Mr. Vikram Singhya is not the person whom we can trust. So the first thing he has to do is to get the other political leaders to join a national unity government. And if he can get Mr. Rajapakshi, that is the Gautabhaya Rajapakshi to resign and someone else can be elected from the parliament. According to the constitution, if a president resigns before his term ends and the elections are not due, then it is a speaker of the parliament who takes over as a temporary president. And within a month, somebody from the parliament, a member of parliament has to be elected as president. And then he can last for six months before the elections are held. So everybody is looking forward to the resignation of Mr. Rajapakshi. He has not shown any inclination to do that. In fact, his supporters have been attacking demonstrators and making them even more angry. So ideal solution is for him to resign. And then since Vikram Singhya is a member of parliament, he is eligible to be elected as president. But whether people will be willing to bring him as president, we don't know. Mrs. Kumar Tunga said that no, he cannot be president because he does not have the capacity to do that. He may not be a politician, may be an economist, may be an imminent politician outside parliament. Anybody could be made president according to her. But it is important to get a member of parliament and that is the next step. If that happens or even if president stays, his effort next will be to prepare a plan for rescue. What President Rajapakshi has so far done is he has approached friendly countries, China, India and Japan and others. And he has also approached the World Bank and the IMF. The World Bank and IMF are studying the situation and they will take time, they have conditionalities, etc. So it's not very easy to get money out of that. China promised but not delivered. So it's a surprising thing that China, which is responsible for most of the problems in Sri Lanka, is keeping quiet. They have not made any statement. They have not suggested what should be done and they have also not offered the money that President Rajapakshi was expecting. But India, to which a request has been made, has been very helpful. Not to President Rajapakshi himself because we, our official spokesman, made it very clear that we are not supporting anybody in Sri Lanka. What we are doing is to support the people of Sri Lanka. So we have given some credit lines, some readjustments of credit and some loans. And the total commitment that India has made to Sri Lanka is something like $6 billion. It's a huge amount of money that India has committed to Sri Lanka because for us, stability of Sri Lanka, economic stability of Sri Lanka and political stability of Sri Lanka are very important. So China, while it has been behind all the problems of the debt trap that was created in Sri Lanka, is keeping quiet while India has come up with a number of suggestions and actual cash, which is now being appreciated. Earlier, of course, they were depending more on China and India did not have the resources to give the kind of assistance that China was giving. So but since they don't have that facility, India has taken a special interest and has committed as much as $6 billion to Sri Lanka. So with that, they will be able to import some fuel, some food, some other materials from India and also some of the other countries. So they have to have a ship to mouth existence because they don't produce anything. The tea plantations have been completely ruined because Mr. Kajapaksha, you know, banned all chemical fertilizers and brought in natural manure to the tea gardens and the gardens collapsed. Tourism is almost not there. And remittances from abroad has reduced and so President has requested Sri Lankans abroad to send more money to the country. But none of these is going to solve the problem immediately. So what Mr. Ekram Singh has to do is to find some very capable economists, there are many of them in Sri Lanka, bring them together and take their advice and prepare a master plan for the future, say for about two years. Whether this is possible or not is the question. Of course, Mr. Ekram Singh has a great self confidence. In fact, BBC asked him as to how he was going to run the country with just one seat in parliament. He said, look at your own history, look at Winston Churchill. He did not have much of a support when he became Prime Minister but he was a successful Prime Minister. Of course, some people laughed when they heard that he was comparing himself with Winston Churchill, but at least he had the courage to take his own and he is determined and he has the self confidence to do so. But the problem is the economic crisis is very urgent and important. But to the people of Sri Lanka, even more important than that is that Mr. Gautabaya must go to his village. So the removal of the president and the abolition of the executive presidency. Earlier, before Jayvardhani, the president was a figurehead. But Jayvardhani turned that post into an executive president, it was changed but again it went back under Gautabaya. And therefore he is the all-powerful man. So two things they want, they want future presidents to be non-executive like the previous presidents and certainly they want him to go and this is what they are asking for. And one of the reasons for this greater anger from the people is the suspicion that the demonstrations which were peaceful for several months suddenly became violent because the Rajapaksha supporters went into the crowd and created a situation. And then the army went in and tried to suppress that. But in spite of all that, the people are continuing on the streets and the interesting part is it is mostly young people asking for a complete change and restructuring, not only economically but also politically. Because Mr. Vikram Singh does not have much political support and he has only one seat, he may not be able to bring the necessary support to reverse the economic crisis as well as the political crisis in Sri Lanka. Though he had made some plans for economic revival in Sri Lanka when he was prime minister, he was not able to be successful in any particular project. And so what he needs to do and since he had not completed any of the terms, the people feel that he is not capable of resolving the issues. Just look at the issues, there is one set of issues which were beyond the control of the president. Like COVID-19, we have discussed this before, the terrorist attacks, the Chinese death trap and the global consequences of the Russia pain war. So these are things which would have happened whether there was Rajapaksha or not, whether they are Vikram Singh or not. These came naturally and regardless of the presidency. So COVID-19 meant that tourism ended, the remittances became less, then the terrorist attack also created problems. The Chinese death trap of course the governments knew that this was going to be a problem but they ignored it and went on borrowing more and more money in order to rescue the country. And of course then there are some issues which were caused by President Rajapaksha personally. First was it was a Rajapaksha family government, 72% of the government's power were concentrated in about 10 people from the Rajapaksha family. And most of them were very corrupt, which was very well known into the people that is one of the accusations about against the president. Then reduction of taxes because when he won the election he promised the people, when he contested the election he promised the people that he will reduce taxes. Which of course pleased the people but by reducing the taxes he reduced the capacity of the government to deal with the administration. And then banning the import of fertilizers and then the family holding so many important positions. So the responsibility for the present situation partly beyond the control of the politicians and partly because of the politicians. And therefore the people what they want is now they want the president to go economic, even their own difficulties can wait, that is the impression that you get. So in other words, the suspicion is the fear is that Mr. Vikram Singh cannot deliver on the promise he has made of pulling the country out of the chaos as long as the president remains in power. Beyond the call for economic recovery, there's a persistent demand for freedom from the dynasty. Earlier because of presidents affinity to singhala community, there were divisions within the community with the Tamils and also with the Muslims etc. So there were divisions. But one interesting thing that we can see now is that even the minorities are united against the president. So ironically, the president has cost some kind of a unity in the government in the country against him. Then another concern that people have is after the incidents of the last three or four days that the army is taking a role in the governance of the country. Because since they are in charge of the law and order, they need more powers. Those are being given to them. And therefore they are likely to become more and more active in the political administration of the country. And the fear is that they may behave like the Pakistan army or say the Myanmarese army. Because these are political armies, not just military. And if that happens, it will be a new situation in Sri Lanka. And that's also another reason why they want the president to go. Because as long as the president continues, the army will be in the field and they will probably assume more and more political power. So the general feeling among the observers in Sri Lanka is that Mr. Vikram Singh is not the man of the hour, is the wrong choice. And however much he may try, he may not be able to attain much. So in any case, the situation is so desperate that anyone who can do something for the country will be welcome. And as I mentioned earlier, if the president, Vatabhaya, does not resign, life will be even more difficult for the government and the people. So what Mr. Vikram Singh can do is only to hold the fort and put together an economic package for the World Bank and the IMF and give some confidence to the people that there is something. And that may tone down the demonstrations. So if there is a feeling that something is happening, the moment because of feeling is that they are desperate. But if he can indicate that there is something at the end of the tunnel, he may be able to save the presidency a little bit. But a revolution which will bring in the younger generation to the fore alone can read state what Sri Lanka was. You may know that when Sri Lanka, the earlier years, they were so peaceful and so prosperous that they were compared to the Japanese. And in terms of income and in terms of national happiness, Sri Lanka was only second to Japan in Asia. So that was the situation and today are probably the worst. And so even though Mr. Vikram Singh has an international profile, the world is not giving much attention to Sri Lanka. Part of the reason is because Sri Lanka is far away from Europe and they generally leave the matters late into South Asia to India and maybe China. And so they don't generally interfere. But another reason why there is insensitivity or lack of interest in what's happening in Sri Lanka is because of the Ukraine crisis. Everybody is preoccupied with it. So big powers or Europe, Russia or anyone is not likely to take any interest in that. So China has not responded. India has responded. And though we have said that this is for the help of the people and the international community, particularly India, will be guided by the interests of the people. Expired democracy rather than by a president, disliked by people and also a prime minister who has been appointed by him. But one encouraging feature is that there is a prime minister who is ready to put his head on the chopping block as it were, you know, take a risk and try to do something. And that may have begun to show some hope in the present situation. So he is not going to solve the problems. He is not going to be the panacea for all the evils of Sri Lankan politics and economy. But he may have given a little hope or something happening at government functioning and things may move. That's all that people of Sri Lanka can't hope for. But the fact that they continue to agitate is clearly not in favor of Mr. Vikram Singh. So let's hope that he will have the authority and he will have the ability and he will have the wisdom to bring about a solution to the problems in Sri Lanka. But it is beyond capacity of one person and not even the whole political leadership of Sri Lanka. And therefore, unless President Rajapaksha resigns, there is no immediate likelihood of Sri Lanka coming out of this crisis situation. Thank you.