 We're back with the breakfast in Plostibi Africa. We'll be speaking with Ubono Koko this morning. He joins us from the FCT. Remember the conversation we've had about the FCT. Koko, it's good to have you join us this morning. Thanks for having me. Alright, then a bit of a background to our conversation. Nigeria recorded an annual headline inflation rate of 18.85%. That was in 2022, in what was remarkably a year ravaged by several economic headwinds. According to a research website, narrowlytics, Nigeria experiences worse inflation rate in the last 21 years. The last time Nigeria recorded an annual inflation rate higher than 18.85% was in 2021, when the consumer price index rose by an average of 18.87%. The African giant just recovered from COVID-19 pandemic and ripple effects from the hashtag ANSAS movement in 2020. Faced further hardship due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which was followed by inflationary wars. A look at the monthly trend showed that just inflation rate breached a 17-year sailing of 21.47% in November, largely attributed to global energy crisis, depreciation of the exchange rate, food crisis and surge in transportation costs among others. Thank you so much, Ubono Koko, for joining us. Ubono Koko is an investment and economic development expert from Abuja. He joins us now on the breakfast to give insight on how to find a way out of the economic issues that were faced with him. Once again, thanks for joining us. Thank you for having me. Thank you for having me. Before we get to the other part of the conversation, how to get out of it, because you are an expert, but how did we get to experience this kind of inflation that we did just 21 years after? Alright, thanks for having me once again. Let's start the conversation by asking the right question. I'll try to break it down. This thing has been long coming, whether you like it or not. Unless you build a structured economic development plan and follow it through, there's nowhere, just like a child who's giving birth to you, who starts school, goes through kindergarten, goes through primary education, secondary education. It keeps growing. So as soon as you miss out on any, it will affect the child eventually in future. So what am I trying to say? We've talked about infrastructure being a major penicillist to development. And then we have been playing lip service for the past few years over bringing the right infrastructure that we need to industrialize our nation. We don't have refining capacity as a nation. When it comes to petroleum products, we don't have well-detailed financial engineering structure in the financial sector to support the SMEs. We don't have logistics, contract and compliance system. So a whole lot. So when things happen, they will definitely become a problem to you in the future. So let me bring it back. So if a nation exists where you are still finding it difficult, I wrote something on my Facebook page a few days ago. I said, can you imagine a country where you don't have a streamlined ticket or tax system where people have to pay over the seven trailers and lorries that carry goods from one point to another have to pay over 36 or 37 dues to different organizations, local government, for them to be able to move goods from one point to another. You can imagine what that does. So it's easier for you to move goods from Shanghai port to Benner Republic than to move goods from Macmillan Buster, which is on Legosi but Expressway to Benner Republic. So what does that tell you? Our participation in the global financial market is so low. So what are we even bringing to the table? Yes, we are the giants of Africa. So a lot of things have actually gone wrong. So it's a lot of work that we need to do starting from number one, being able to put in right investment into infrastructure, being able to provide power. If you don't have a good refining, if you don't have the right refining capacity for your petroleum product, the little shock that has happened in the petroleum industry, in cost generally in the world, it affected us because, one, the little income we're making from rent and the sales of crude oil were used to import petroleum products. So why won't you have effects issues? These are the things that are contributing to the inflation that we're talking about. So a whole lot of things, the flooding that happened before the flooding happened, we have a proper design irrigation system where we are looking for water in the north for irrigation and at the end of the day we're still suffering from flooding. So there's a lot. Insecurity has actually affected whatever it is that has happened to our economy because when we started talking about our food belt being attacked by terrorists, people thought it was just an ERP surrogate. No, these people, they were deliberate. They knew what they were doing. They went to areas, Benwe, Tarrabah. They went to places where we have strong cultivating strength. They went there to attack our people so that farmers will run out from their cultivation lawn so that at the end of the day we will not start facing food crisis. So if you are dependent on high interest rates from banks, you are dependent on high effects exchange rates to import food, what do you expect? The food will be expensive. So there's a whole lot that has happened to the economy that we need a whole lot, a whole lot of more strategic system and styles to be able to come out of it. All right, Obuna, the headline inflation got to a head in November last year. It went above the ceiling and it was about 21.47 percent, largely attributed to the global energy crisis. Sometimes we might not really have a bit of control over that. Let's talk about some other issues that were attributed to the cause of that particular margin. Talk about the exchange rate, depreciation of the Naira and all of that food crisis which you have mentioned and transportation costs. For our exchange rate regime, over time the CBN comes out with various policies, you know, dollar for Naira and all of that. Most of those policies are misplaced and they're not actually building the desires change that we are looking for. What do we do about our forex regime? Okay, let me start by saying, I already described, you know, fiscal policy measures and monetary policy measures are using the football team. Now the monetary policy guys are the defender. The fiscal policy guys are actually the strikers. Now the success of the team is largely dependent on what the strikers do than what the defenders do for you to have victory. What am I trying to say in essence? On C, you have a robust fiscal policy measure. It would be difficult. So all the policies, all the measures that central bank have been doing are, you know, it's just like you are losing a match and then everybody falls back to defend lines to see how you can just defend the Naira. So those policies will never, ever solve the problem. On C, you are able to earn dollars. Nigeria does not print dollars. Nigeria can only earn dollars. What are the means to earn dollars? You have to bring our goods and services provide to international markets or your participation in global value chains. Those are the things that will help you earn those dollars. And those are the dollars which you will now use for things that you will need dollars for as a nation. So for you to be able to come out of that problem, all you need to do is to increase your foreign exchange, you know, your participation in foreign exchange market. So if you don't have things that you are exporting or if you are earning the little you are earning and you are using it to go back to the market to purchase things that are unnecessary, using it to feed the subsidiary regime, at the end of the day you will be cash trapped. So pretty much Central Bank have tried to do what they are supposed to do and I believe my illustration has been able to explain it even to a layman that the defender does not decide who wins. It is the striker who decides who wins in any match. So if the fiscal policy guys have not designed a structure or been able to build our refiners to start working so that we don't expend the little effects that we have gotten on trying to buy for children products, at the end of the day we will find ourselves in the same situation. I say this all the time. Every single thing you see in Nigeria, almost 80% of what you see in Nigeria are all imported. So we are highly dependent as a nation and you cannot import without effects. So the pressure on the effects is so high because our manufacturing capacity is so low and that is very bad. So until we are able to grow what we eat, be able to manufacture what we use, certain things like that will continue to be in this situation as a nation. Okay, let's even look at the fact that chief economist saying that we probably might face a global recession and for Nigeria this has been a lot of reporting and more like an assurance from stakeholders, one would say the minister of finance and the minister saying that we have what it takes to cushion the effect for exchange would be able to sustain us. What do you make of this? See, we are a huge economy and potentially a huge economy. So there is so much you can do to actually earn $10. Now there are areas that are on top. There are things, there are areas that I would not have participated in. If we have a strong and robust participation in the solidarity sector, yes, that can earn us a lot of foreign exchange. Like the gold belt that we had around all the way from Nigeria to Danfara state, if we are able to tap into that, we have more gold than Ghana and South Africa as a nation, let go. These are things that are needed in the technology space. These are things that if we put in energy to see how we can make them work we can actually become the foreign exchange earner for us as a nation. Services for God's sake, there are things that we can do. We have a young population that we can trade and put out there for people to actually hire and then we can earn a lot of foreign exchange. So what I'm trying to say in essence, the other thing is right, but the strategy to actually actualise this thing are the things that we are asking. Let's think down, draw up a plan that will be able to help us actualise it. So it is possible, but we need to we need a whole lot of critical thinking and structuring. Alright, then food inflation is another issue that we should look at holistically. We've talked about our monetary policy and of course the fiscal policy. But let's come back home and talk about food security because food prices are just skyrocketing by the day. School of thought would say that we grow all of those produce in the country. How come they are on the increase by the day? Some would say that the issues of flooding and insecurity are major or causal factors to why we are not producing enough. How do we address this issue of food insecurity because by the day Nigerians are not going to bed with foods in their stomach? Now it is a whole lot of work if you ask me and I say this because the capacity to which we face agriculture is not the capacity that is required for you to be able to feed over 200 million people. Now security is very crucial. If we are able to push back the insurgents it is going to give a lot of time and ample time and opportunity for those who are farmers those who earn a living from agriculture to go back to farm. Now again, the way we handle animal husbandry the dairy industry, we have to pay in lip service who have not been able to strategically put out structures that will help us. You can't have cattle roam all over the streets of Nigeria moving from the north to the south and you think you can make the best out of it but cows definitely will not last days. So there are things we need to reconsider the structure of having ranches or have it done the way it is done all over the world. So we need to also invest a whole lot in infrastructure. I said something earlier people that move goods lorries that move goods from one point to another I'm talking about from farm gates to the market they are spending so much money on paying levies to known and unknown structured and on structured organizations that people don't know who they are they have to pay for styling they have to pay for different things radio licenses 37 licenses that they have to pay for them to carry goods from the farm gate to the market somebody needs to look at this holistically then again, we need to also consider having a financial product that will fit or suit the farming population that we have to support them because if you don't the food crisis is imminent you cannot continue like this so what I'm just trying to say in essence is okay we begin to have large farming strategy large agro systems it will be very difficult for us to come out of this we are talking about 200 million people for you to feed 200 million mouths it can be having a cassava farm the biggest cassava farm in Nigeria is less than 10,000 hectares and that is very wrong you cannot play anywhere you can't do anything with that so we need to be able to design more products get more people to diversify when I talk about diversification we are discussing being able to get those who have idle funds to go into agriculture give them incentives when they go into agriculture just design products that will attract people into agriculture so those are the things that I can think of right now that we can do and many more I'm sure that we are already talking about how to wiggle out a way of the economic situation that we are faced with talking about headline inflation and what have you but just as we cost us down in less than a minute the economy should we expect if you have inflation of course is high and a recession in 2023 it's going to be a very huge it's going to be a very very strong and let me just use what a very strong want to tackle because whether we like it or not when you can see immediately after the election of course you've heard all the candidates who tell you we are going to take out subsidy so as soon as you take out subsidy that means inflation is going to surge higher so with that kind of surge you expect a recession to hit almost immediately but that said that's why we need very strategic governments that will be able to pull resources together pull resources talking about those who have what it takes in their head to redesign and design strategies and plans that will be able to get us out of that kind of issue as fast as possible so it's going to be tough but we will be able to surmount it as far as I'm concerned but I know we have to put a capacity it's just that we just had bad leadership over the years alright thank you so much Obama, Ukuko, investment and economic development expert who joined us from Abuja thank you so much for all of the thoughts that you have shared this morning would you appreciate them alright thank you for having me alright so that's the size of the show for today we've looked at the economy we've looked at the electoral act and of course well all this reminds you it's about 9 days 15 the practice ticket is actually on your screen right now 9 days 15 hours and 6 minutes and over 20 seconds for you to go and pick up your permanent voter cards my name is Justin Acabone and I am Messi Ebuco it's alright to follow us on Facebook Twitter and Instagram subscribe to our YouTube channel plus TV Africa if you missed out on the conversation we'll join the newsroom at 9 o'clock for the news brief we ask that you stay with us have a great morning bye for now