 Hey everybody, what's going on? I am Greg Sosman joined today by Jim Saunders of Fando. We're talking NFL draft. You ready Jim? I am so ready Greg because hey, we've had so much time to think about this already But also it's nice to have actual kind of I guess sports to think about nothing on the field But also it is a real sports type event So a lot of things combining here to make us pretty excited about this and it's a pretty fun draft class too So I am jazz and ready. How are you? I am excited as well Jim I'm just ready for something outside of empty arena wrestling. Listen, I love empty arena wrestling It's it's sports. It's wrestling. It gets me away for the NFL draft. I mean, it's real man I am super super excited. So let's get into it We're taking a look at some of the props that are available right now over on Fando And the first one you really like is Tristine Orbs going under pick eight and a half a lot of good offense and linemen in this Draft works, maybe the best of them you get in the under here at minus 452 Yeah, I think that there are a couple of reasons for this the first one is that if there are a lot of tackle needy teams picking Before that eighth overall pick because you've got four teams I need a tackle now two of them and the dolphins and the chargers are probably gonna go quarterback So we're gonna take them off the table But that does still leave the Giants and the Cardinals were very likely to consider a tackle We can also see a scenario where the Browns or the Jets trade up to get into the top Seven to trade two seven overall with the Panthers to potentially get ahead of the Cardinals and get the tackle of their choice And those things bode well for Tristan works I also like him individually because the athletic testing numbers for worse were unreal If you look at tackles would have been at the combine since 2010 worse had the fifth best weight adjusted 40 yard dash time And then he tackle in that span and two of the guys went ahead of him are Lane Johnson and Trent Williams both those guys were the fourth overall pick and their respective classes Terran Armstead was the top guy in that metric and he is he wasn't the top end pick But he's been a stud. So this is a good number to look at when it comes to tackles I think that bodes well for Tristan works He seems likely to be either the first or the second linemen off the board and we could see two or three Tackles be taken but then these top eight picks So I like worse individually, but I also like the way the draft sets up for him to go within those first eight picks I think Tristan works is probably the Giants top offense alignment on their board You mentioned them at four if they don't go with a player like Isaiah Simmons I think he makes a lot of sense at that spot And even if they trade down right where are they training down to or the chargers gonna try to jump the Dolphins and the dolphins gonna make sure that nobody jumps them and they to trade up I think worse because a lot of sense here It's not great value at minus 152 is the offensive tackle heavy draft as you mentioned But worse in a good spot to go in the top eight Let's continue on I mentioned the chargers a moment ago We talked about how they could draft the quarterback But what quarterback would they draft and we all assume that to a he's gonna wind up in Miami And the chargers are going to take a quarterback potentially. Who is their quarterback? You're banking your money on Justin Herbert Yeah, I think it's good time to just kind of reset because we've had a lot of smoke coming out over the past couple of Months about which teams, you know They prefer which way they are leaning and I think that that's kind of gotten us distracted from where our baseline assumption was Earlier this winter that was that the dolphins would take to a tongue of I lo whether via trade up or at number five overall And then the chargers would take Justin Herbert And I think we kind of got distracted from that because if one of these teams is gonna move up to number three to take To a tongue of I loa the dolphins have way more ammo than the chargers do think they are more realistic to move up Potentially get to or sit back at five and take to a there that leaves Herbert available for the chargers and That's not a bad scenario for the chargers to be in if they can sit at number six and get the quarterback of their choice They have a good core around their quarterback And that means that they can sit there get their quarterback and still have the additional draft capital They have Available in the rest of the draft the dolphins are a team who were tied to a tongue of I loa as early as last year And even an independent medical report said that he has been cleared I think that this this talk around the dolphins not liking to a is them trying to drive down the price from the lines at number three overall Or potentially lower the incentive of other teams to jump them in order to draft to us So I think that we're just seeing a lot of misdirection here Trying to distract us from what was the previous assumption was that to go to the dolphins Herbert would go to the chargers And I can allow us to get Herbert at a pretty good number here at plus 160 going to Los Angeles I could see the chargers trying to make a play for to a because to a in my eyes at least is clearly the superior prospect But I think given the ammo that the dolphins have and given how long they've been tied into a I think the most likely scenario is One we had earlier this this winter where the chargers stay put at six and take Herbert there I feel like people have forgotten about Justin Herbert through this draft process It's possible because everything's being done virtually We haven't had near the coverage that we're used to but Two is going to be in Miami. I think every smoke screen that revolves around them not drafting to it It's just that as you mentioned you have a smoke screen But for me two has always been the guy from the dolphins when they were supposed to have the number one overall picks And now we're there at five they all do whatever they can with any amount of first-round picks that they have to make sure They get their guy But Justin Herbert a year ago was going to be the top overall quarterback taken So we thought even ahead of Daniel Jones for the Giants potentially ahead of Kyler Murray as well That was Justin Herbert. Now nobody's talking about him. Everyone's talking about Jordan Love instead We'll get to him in a few moments But if you still believe that Justin Herbert is the third best quarterback off the board We know the chargers very much in the market for one not improving the quarterback position after letting Philip Rivers go Herbert you're getting me a good number here to go to the chargers. I believe a plus 160 That's a number you you want to take because it's well worth it We've talked about offensive linemen here Jim and you mentioned the Jets That's your team and you're saying hey, they desperately need an offensive lineman Now they did do some work in free agency bringing in the guy like George font who is not good Which means they need to draft another offensive lineman get more talent into the room And you believe that's the position that they're going to go after here in the first round And you get pretty good value on that as well Yeah, I think the key phrase you said there greg was get more talent in the room They need to get talent around sam darl because it is year three of him on his rookie deal And that is a critical year for quarterbacks and rookie deals because next off season They have to decide whether they want to pick up that fifth year option And it's the first time they can give him an extension So if you need if you want to evaluate sam darnold You got to do it this year and you cannot do that with the offensive line They have around him right now like he said they made a lot of moves in free agency They've added a bunch of offensive linemen But outside of george fans all those guys have been interior offensive linemen right now They're starting tackles are phant and shuma adoga You're not going to enter the year with that being the snare And I think the way the jets have attacked free agency has been a signal to me That they plan to address this position in the draft It also makes sense when you look at the way the draft breaks out because they're going either offensive line Or wide receiver at this first pick I think we can say that pretty definitively You look at the depth of this wide receiver class They can ignore that with this first pick and then address that in the second round with offensive line There is a pretty big falloff after either the top four or the top six Tackles depending on the way that you want to look at things And I doubt that that sixth guy is going to be on the board when the jets pick in the second round So if they want to address this thing optimally with the way the draft is likely to play out They should go offensive line the first round followed by wide receiver in the second round We know it's probably going to be one of those two positions And they are the top two positions at vandal sportsbook But you're getting plus money on offensive line for joe douglas was a former offensive lineman and took Andre Dillard in the first round last year with the Philadelphia Eagles Everything lines up well for them to go offensive line here I think that the the way they've attacked free agency has set them up to do so And it makes a lot of sense with their needs and their need to evaluate sam darnold Offense of tackle is also a much weaker position for them than wide receiver right now So I think all the stars align here for the just to take alignment You're getting plus money on them at plus 110 as well I don't think there's any Question they're going to take an offensive lineman to gain plus money on this This is the one I would like to lock in right now before it changes here Over at the vandal sportsbook as you said joe douglas is a former offensive lineman This is how he wants to build his team and the only office attack will they bring in his george fan and again I'll say it. He's not good At all seattle has always desperately needed offensive lineman. They let him walk Why again because he's not talented That means they're going to find some talent in the draft and it's going to be along the offensive line It's going to be in the first round There's no doubt in my mind that they're going to not let one of these top offensive linemen slip And they're going to get them in the first round of the NFL draft Now my favorite Prop that we're talking about here is right now with jordan love and you believe he's going to go after Pick 17 which I think is very very interesting here jim because there's people that believe that jordan love Is going to be the third quarterback off the board potentially to the los angeles chargers But I given that you're betting on Justin herbert going inside the top 10 go to the chargers. I know what you're doing right You're looking at the rest of the teams in the nfl in that first round You're like, oh, well, who else these are starting quarterback right now And you don't have one and then you take a look at some teams that could use a long term backup Or look at teams that maybe in the mix for a starter at some point and you're like Hmm, that's kind of the back end of the first round maybe in the second round and that's when you get to jordan love There's a lot of smoke around him. There's a lot of hype around him. But who is going to draft them? That's the question we have to ask ourselves and that's a reason I have to imagine Why you think he goes in the second half of the first round or later Yeah, Greg I think it's kind of what you said where it's just a numbers game with jordan love where there are two scenarios Where jordan love goes in the first 17 picks one of those is he does go the todmick shea route and become the third quarterback off the board Going ahead of jesson herbert, but herbert has a much better statistical profile and in general Is ranked ahead of love based on the extra rankings? I think that scenario is a bit less likely the betting odds would Tell you that as well because love is more of a long shot Be drafted ahead of herbert over at fangirl sportsman The other scenario where jordan love goes in the first 17 picks is where we have a surprise team taking a quarterback That could be washington or jackson bill but washington has traded for kyle allen and they've kind of ignored cam new Which says to me they're probably not in the market at quarterback and probably proceeding forward with the wade haskins The alternative is the jaguars and the jaguars pick at nine They could go a quarterback there, but they also have a pick later in the first round at pick number 19 They can look at the draft board and say hey There's no other quarterback needy team between our first pick and our second pick And then the first round because the next team that needs a quarterback on the board is the patriots all the way down At pick 23 so if a team decides hey, we want jordan love They can either jump ahead of the jaguars at 19 or they could jump ahead of the patriots at 23 But neither of those scenarios requires them to pick within the top 17 picks So I think that although we do have two paths to jordan love being a top 17 pick I don't think either path is all that likely which means getting the over here at just minus 102 I think it's pretty attractive jordan love is pretty much a lock I would say to be a first round pick and that's totally okay You know, maybe it's team trades back into the first round to get him at the end there But there are enough red flags I think to push him outside the back or the front half of the first round And back to those quarterback needy teams you mentioned in the latter half of the first round So i'm going to go over here at minus 102 and say that we see a fall on love Because it's just a numbers game that doesn't work in his favor Jim I like how you broke that down even further for us Try to figure out where he would end up and the only two likely teams are the patriots and the jaguars And both have picks towards the end of that first round after pick number 17 Which is where you're getting them at plus 102 I will say this as a giant span watching the giants have two first round picks and using their early one in janitor Jones You don't want to miss it if you absolutely love a quarterback you go up and you take him wherever you need to Jaguars could do that inside the top 10. I think that's the biggest fear. I don't see anyone going up After that if the jaguars let him fall in and I think you're safe I think that's the one pick you got to worry about is the jaguars early pick We'll see what happens. We'll see if Jordan love to pull that top McShay as you mentioned be the third quarterback off the board We're potentially a top 10 quarterback but a plus one out two I think it's worth taking the shot and he'll go after pick 17 Although a lot of really good offensive linemen here on the board jim There's a lot of good wide receiver on wide receivers on the board as well And that leaves t higgins Well, potentially out of the first round. You don't think so and I don't really think so either He had a great career at clemson and t higgins in any other draft. Maybe the first wide receiver off the board That's how talented. I think he is you're buying that some team will take the plunge on t higgins in round one Yeah, I think t higgins and literally every wide receiver in this draft has benefited In the way that things have played up so far in this all season started with the trades because the Minnesota Vikings traded a Way stiff on digs and acquired another first round pick that adds another pick for a wide receiver needy team In this first round, they're not going to go into the year with adam thielen and ola bc johnson as their top two receivers They're going to draft a wide receiver with one of those first two picks But also we saw that san francisco 49ers pick up number 13 overall in that de force buckner traded the indianapolis colts They're pretty likely to draft a wide receiver with one of their first picks as well So what we've seen here is a couple of wide receiver needy teams add first round picks Which inflates the number projected first round picks to be used on wide receivers There have also been some teams that haven't made a lot of moves in free agencies specifically the packers they did add devon funches but Overall, they haven't done enough to address that wide to see your position We could see them be in play for a wide receiver pick number 30 That just increases the number of projected wide receivers in the first round Which means that someone like t higgins who like you said had a tremendous career clemson Could sneak back into that first round at the latter half just because there are so many teams that could address wide receiver In this first round now. Yeah t higgins pro day wasn't that good his 40-yard dash time wasn't great He rested at the combine and probably is going to cost himself a couple of picks there as a result But you can trust the tape here. You can trust the size you can trust everything that we saw him do at clemson I think that's going to get him back into the back into the first round Especially we're getting him at plus money at plus or plus 126 I think you're only banking on a major major fall here from taking t higgins Just because he did not work out at the combine and had kind of poor numbers in his pro day I think that t higgins is going to slide up into that first round Because of the vikings and 49ers adding first round picks inflating the number of wide receivers who go on the first round He's one of those guys who could benefit So trying to see where the dominos fall which teams which players benefit from that I think that t higgins at plus money makes a lot of sense to go in the first based on the way things have played out Throughout the sausages We'll see what happens There are a lot of teams in the first round as you mentioned the offensive linemen and wide receivers the packers And the vikings two teams in the nfc north that could become viable options for t higgins Like he said he didn't help himself necessarily at the nfl combine but He very well could sneak in the first round with so many wider see where needy teams and that career on tape at clemson A lot of these players this year given the tough off season just like hey Look at my tape. Look at what I do when the games matter forget me in shorts t higgins Well, he could put up his game tape against anybody One last prop to get to on today's edition of the hurry up and that brings us Well right back to the quarterback position. We've talked about arguably the top four quarterbacks on the board But what happens after that jake fran a nice career at georgia jacob eason had a good career as well Well, who's gonna go first jim you're making on it being jake fran. How come? Well, I think we've already seen the scenario play out once before that was when georgia picked jake fran over jacob eason And I think that the nfl could follow suit now You can't really appeal to authority here because georgia pretty clearly made a mistake when they had justin fields transfer That one didn't work out as well So saying that because georgia picked jake fran over jacob eason is not going to be A lone convincing factor to say that the nfl will do the same here But there are also other reasons to favor jake fran over jacob eason The first one is that fran is a year younger than jacob eason with 15 more games in college of at least 10 pass attempts And those are numbers that are important when predicting whether quarterbacks will pan out at the nfl level So younger more experience that's good for fran He also was better in college because his adjusted yards per attempt as a junior jake fran's at georgia was 8.1 That was not very good But it was still better than jacob eason's at 8.0 And fran was above 9.5 the two years before that as a true freshman in a true sophomore playing in the sec So he was a good college quarterback And jacob eason never had a year on par with those two years from jake fran fran also did that despite a much tougher schedule playing in the Seat 78 percent of his pass this year came against top 50 defenses based on bill connelly's number numbers sp plus Addie spn that's compared to just 36 percent for jacob eason. So fran had better efficiency numbers while facing a tougher schedule He is younger. He is more experienced. We've already seen a team pick jake fran over jacob eason in the past I understand why jacob eason is the favorite here You're getting from it plus money at plus 120 because fran at the combine did not look good But it also there wasn't a lot of positive buzz out of jacob eason there So I think if you're betting jake fran relative to jordan love Jalen hurts and guys like that. It's okay to have pessimism, but specifically around jacob eason I want to side with jake fran here. I want to trust the college numbers I want to trust the pedigree and the experience and what we've seen in the past And that's what jake fran being a guy who was favored over jacob eason He's done it once before why can't he do it again in the battle of the jakes for georgia georgia went with jake fran over jacob eason eason had a nice college career But as you mentioned fran is younger and had more games where those higher pass attempts I have to like uh jake fran to do it remember as a freshman We thought this guy was going to be the number one overall pick didn't necessarily turn out that way for jake fran Who's going to go somewhere in the middle of this draft But fran he's very very talented as is jake of eason and we'll see if fran will go over him again Just like he did at georgia, but I think the youth is on his side So the numbers they're on his side as well. Like you said neither player really lift the calm mind up And it's not necessarily about the calm mind for the quarterback. It's about what he did in college He's got that cerebral mind I think jake fran certainly somebody at his age at his youth that should go over jake of eason It's it's plus money a little bit anyway from a solid choice That's a new brush here on the fandal hurry up jim. We appreciate your time. Hopefully we'll do this soon Yeah, looking forward to it. Greg. It's been fun to reconnect here a little bit at least virtually Yeah, and hopefully we can get some more draft talk in here pretty quickly and just enjoy Having something to talk about in the sporting world. Hope we can have real sports to talk about in the not so distant future I'm petrified what happens after the nfl draft because then i'm like Now what jim, but hopefully by then we'll have something else to talk about I'm sure they'll be able to drive cars around circles again for you soon I can only hope that would be the best thing ever at this point. Give me some nascar. Give me anything I will watch literally whatever to get my mind off all the stuff going on the world. So whatever it is I will happily take it. Greg for jim. Sanis. I'm greg sussman. Thanks so much for watching the fandal hurry up We'll see you again later this week. Have a great week. Stay safe everybody