 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network Big week in the sports world coming up because it is not just NFL week number eight Not just college football NBA and NHL, but the world series is coming up this week You got the Phillies and the Astros set to square off for a breakdown the World Series of the Rob Friedman pitching Ninja get his thoughts on both sides and also take my first look at NFL week number eight This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here one last time by a Robin Friedman check about on Twitter at pitching Ninja find his work at Fox And they'll be peacock and nesting in rod Rob It's bittersweet to have you on for one last time, but we could talk about a really fun series I know you gotta wipe the tears away Agree for sure, but what better way to go out than talking about a fun series between two teams that I have a lot of fun watching Absolutely, I think it is it. I think it hopefully will be a fun series and a culmination of a great season Absolutely, and I think that it's been fun to track the progression of these things because obviously the Phillies had there were struggles to open off the year and Made a managerial change and I think that you kind of always knew this talent was in there Just wasn't really shining and whether that was variants. Maybe it was managerial stuff I don't really know what it was, but they're facing a tough opponent now in the Houston Astros They faced a lot of opponents in the postseason already, but just from a broad perspective What's your overall view of this series Astros and Phillies? I think it's it's depth is The big differentiator between these teams. I think the top if there's not that much of a difference But as you go deeper and deeper And in this you know seven game format you need you need some depth and it depends on how things play out But I think that's the biggest difference I see on paper Yeah, I think that that makes a lot of sense And you know you kind of just have to hope the Phillies they didn't have to test that depth very much in the NLCS And that was kind of a big thing for them there, but they will have to test that here So let's talk about these two rotations first and we'll talk about the bullpens You talked about the depth is the depth in the rotation the key area where the Phillies may lag behind because I mean Astros are kind of loaded in that regard just position them pretty well. Is this the area where the depth to you as most apparent? Yeah, I think it's on both sides. I think it's in starting rotation and the bullpen But definitely in the starting rotation. I think that again the top two can match anybody I mean Nolan Wheeler. Yeah, I mean there's not a team that they're going to be over matched against It's as you get deeper and deeper when you're talking about a three and four that could be a one and two and anybody else's Rotation that's tough like McCullers is legitimately one of the filthiest pitchers in the American League and as you saw Javier is borderline unhittable at times and You know that you have Valdez and Verlander. I mean, what do you do? That's right? Who do you think has the edge? Let's top two, you know I would probably put Valdez and Verlander top two for the fit for the answers We know the Phillies top two or Do the Phillies have a slight edge there? I think they kind of need an edge in that regard in order to have a leg up for the series because they're in Houston for those two games Like that's that's pretty tough. Do you give them an edge there or is it just a complete complete wash? It's pretty close between those like obviously Wheeler has been pitching great And he may be pitching the best out of all out of everybody You know Nola's had his ups and downs at Nola's best. He's one of the best pitchers in the major league So depends what Nola shows up Verlander obviously had a monster year and it'd be hard to say anybody Is better than him like he may you know stat wise be the best pitcher in baseball Yeah, and then Fromber with his was it 25 consecutive quality starts It's hard to say anybody has an edge over that like you know one of the best curveballs in the game That's fun that matchup is really good And I think that what's most fun as like a baseball fan is that all four of those guys are pitching like in the second half of The year it seemed like they all found another level like they were all I mean They were all good the whole year But like it seemed like they all found an extra level and that was pretty fun just to watch and to see Those first two matchups, but the bullpens matter a lot too We talked to the Phillies bullpen entering that pottery series and they've been a lot better They've been a lot better than they were but Is the gap between them and the Astros big enough now to make a huge difference in the way you view this series? It depends like if you're starting pitchers do your job, I can hand it to the box to the back to for the Phillies, you know I don't know who's much better than Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado as far as stuff Like those guys are elite pitchers and you know, you're seeing the message here the top two in the rotation top two in the bullpen They can match up with anybody and the question is how deep you have to dig in a seven game series because the Astros Bullpen has so many pieces So many pieces that it's you know, they can afford to have a bad outing by one guy or not have somebody available Because someone else can pick it up the Phillies have less of that luxury doesn't mean the feel like you know Who knows the Phillies could hit on all cylinders and if their guys do their jobs and constantly are you know doing it there There is good. It's when you dig a little deeper that they may not be Yeah, and I think that that's something that will show up if as the series goes series goes along as you alluded to earlier on as well now One of the complicating factors here is that Bryce Harper seems to be playing out of his mind right now If you're a pitcher I'm putting you out there. How are you handling a guy who is a as a baseline as good as Bryce Harper But be playing just unconscious baseball right now. He's so good. He's a fun dude to watch And and can be a tough guy to pitch to I mean you're gonna have to make very little mistakes when you when you pitch against him And if it went in doubt Don't give him anything to hit put him on like, you know, it's that seems to be a pretty good strategy It was the your don strategy early on to with the when he's on fire Don't pitch to him get away But there are ways and and you know, I trust the veterans of the Astros staff to go at him smartly Yeah, that's one of the big differences. They've been in this situation before so Fewer mistakes and you know, I think a lower heartbeat may be able to to beat it But God, he's so much fun to watch Oh, he is and you said when your dawn's on fire, which is kind of his baseline to it is regular state Right. Oh, definitely All right Well, I got to get your prediction Rob right now The Astros are minus 190 to win this series over at Fandals sports book the Phillies are plus 165 Chips are on the table Rob who you got winning the World Series here in 2022 Well, I had the Astros going to the World Series. I had them losing to the Braves, which is not a thing anymore and My instincts are the Astros are the better team. It doesn't mean the Phillies can't win I would pick the Astros but I'm hoping for a good series and it wouldn't you know Wouldn't surprise me to see the Phillies stay hot. Yeah, they definitely could and like you said with those two Those two guys at the top rotation I think that gives us these nods of having a fun series and the Phillies have just been you know white hot so far So who's to say that won't continue in this series against Houston should be a really fun one That is Rob Friedman check him out on Twitter at pitching ninja find his work at MLB Peacock Fox and Nessun and Rob like I said, it's just been a pleasure to have you on all throughout this entire This entire past couple of months. Enjoy the World Series and hopefully get to talk to you once again next year for more Some more baseball in the spring. Absolutely. I am looking forward to it. It's been great. Absolutely. Well, thank you so much Rob appreciate it and just enjoy a smoke some more ribs and enjoy the baseball as it goes. Thanks Alrighty, that was Rob Friedman check him out on Twitter at pitching ninja and again find it all of his awesome work Fox MLB Peacock Nessun. Just a delight to have him on throughout this entire time We're gonna break down my first look at NFL week number eight here in just one second But first NBA season is underway And it's the perfect time to download Fandall Sportsbook America's number one sports book because right now New customers getting no sweat first bet up to $1,000 That's up to $1,000 back in free bets if your first bet doesn't win Fandall has all your favorite bets from the Moneyline to point spreads to player props You can even combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game Parley Plus with live betting you'll get updated odds on games that have already started the Fandall Sportsbook app is safe secure and super easy to use So download Fandall today to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 make every moment more the season with Fandall official sportsbook partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states First online a real money wager only refund issued is not with trouble free bets that expired 14 days Restrictions applies to the terms that sportsbook. Fandall calm gambling problem call 1800 gambler or is the Fandall comm slash RG and Arizona one hundred next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Connecticut 1 888 789 777 777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1809 with it in Kansas 1805 222 4700 as a KS gambling help calm in Louisiana 1877 770 stop in New York 1877 8 hope and wire text open why in Tennessee call the red line at 1889 979 in white oming 1805 222 4700 or in West Virginia 180 gambler net let's dig now into NFL week number eight and see what my numbers are saying at the across the NFL for this week will recap last week after this later on and It's a bit scary looking at these week eight lines and saying I'm okay buying into two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL So far this year and those two teams. I am betting this week. That's the Buccaneers and the Packers for the Bucks I want the money line right now. That's plus 102 at Fandall right now It's plus 105 elsewhere. So shop around on that but my traditional model the one that blends a prior with 2022 data Has Tampa Bay favor by 1.6 points in this game the 2022 only model Really does like Baltimore a lot and it thinks they're due for some positive regression But even in that one it does you this is being strictly a toss up so plus 102 I think makes sense to combine what those two models are saying So I'm fine being on the Buccaneers here their early down efficiency the passing efficiency has still been good that's been dragged down by how bad they've been running the football but We've seen them recently just kind of not running at all and I know the Panthers game was bad But the Mike Evans drop was there. There were some other things that could have broken their way that would have made that game Look a lot better. So I think the Bucks will bounce back soon I'm fine betting on that here with this Thursday night game now It is the sleepy Tom narrative. So we got to worry about that for sure but I do think that the Bucks undervalued the money line at plus 102 or plus 105 You can find that outside of Fandall as to the Packers They are 10 and a half point underdogs at Fandall facing off with the Buffalo Bills You can get that an 11 a half at least this morning. You could at that MGM So shop around this one too and you know, they're not playing very well But I think this number is a bit too much They're still throwing the ball well and early downs the Packers are and that to me says this offense could perk back up Both of my models say the Bills should be heavily favored here The traditional model that I use has 8.32 points in favor of Buffalo It's seven point two one in my twenty twenty two only model that model The traditional model doesn't back test well on larger spreads, you know where it says, okay This team is undervalued of a ten and a half point spread. It doesn't back test that well because We see a negative game scripts. We see good games get out of hand and that can lead to blowouts And that leads to a non-cover So I want to make that very clear that the model doesn't back test well in these kinds of games But I think the Packers can keep this one pretty close They're in desperation mode right now backs against the wall Bills can have a buy for sure But I think the Packers are Undervalued at this number and kind of similar to the the Bucks and the Ravens teams do for progression as the year goes along Packers money line is also plus 430 at Caesars. I'm showing a pretty good amount of value in that too It's 385 a fan dual not as interested there. We're getting 10 and a half means we're getting a cross 10. I Think that's enough To me to for me to bite on the Packers just bite the fact again Things can get out of hand in super negative scripts So I do like the Packers here taking the plus 10 and a half if you can get 11 and a half take that as well The bills are a scary team to bet against my model has them a tier of their own for 2022 only just because how good their defense Has been but I will ride at the Packers here at plus 10 and a half One money line my numbers like is the Bengals now This number has been moving throughout the day as of right now at Fandle. It is minus 180 with it still being there I do still show value is 166 this morning So shop around check all available books and see what number you can get on the Bengals money line But even at 180 I do still show some value I've got the Bengals money line at 60 or win odds 67.1 percent and The implied odds at 180 or 64.3 percent so still about 3 percentage points of value there The spread is minus three, but that's also minus 120 or minus 118 I'd rather get the flexibility and take the money line here despite the movement it has had It seems like the Bengals are figuring things out in offense Their offense used to be super super predictable where if they were in Shotgun they were throwing if they were under center They were gonna run and they've said okay We just won't go under center at all will be shotgun 95 percent and kind of take away that Predictability of the offense. It's really helped and it's not just that I think that's definitely helped But also just having T Higgins healthy this offense has been a different unit when he's been healthy this year so My traditional model says the Bengals should be favored by five point three eight points here I'm not opposed to agreeing with that they're up to eighth in my power rankings in my 2022 only model and that one also does Have a lot of weight in the struggles they had earlier on this year So even though my 2022 only model says, you know, not as enthusiastic about the Bengals here I'm okay going against that and riding with the money line here at minus 180 I would get that as soon as you can because it's been moving even throughout this morning So check out available books to see what you can get that number at and take that one So the ones I am betting right now the Bengals money line minus 180 I do like the Packers plus 10 and a half and 11 half you can get that and I like the Bucking ears money line at plus 105 so some offense that have had struggles this year But good quarterbacks for all three and I'm okay buying into those as we enter week number eight one where I'm not betting Right now is Tennessee minus one and a half I'm guessing this number is a one and a half because of the Ryan Tannehill injury. He's in a walking boot after the game He sounded like he made it sound as though that was just because it felt better than walking around without the boots I'm I think he'll still play but not totally sure if You were to get a read that Ryan Tanneville will be good to go for this game I would take the minus one and a half on Tennessee and bet them there, but I don't know I'm not really sure what the situation is there. This was I think three and a half earlier on Monday So seeing moved to one and a half is concerning So if you get a read the Tannehill play it stays at one and a half I would take the Titans, but not betting that now Because of the Tannehill situation the other I'm not betting despite showing value my model is Pittsburgh plus 10 and a half My model liked Pittsburgh last week, too, which I should have taken I did not they did cover against Miami. I ignored it My 2022 only model says this number is pretty fair 10 and a half and as mentioned my numbers don't back test as well When backing teams that are heavy underdogs on the spread, so I'll pass on that one. I think Pittsburgh, Philadelphia is a very good team I'm not looking to bet against them, especially not with Pittsburgh. I respect my Talmud a lot I think that he's a very good coach and can overcome a lot of key deficits, but for me It's too big. So Passing up on Tennessee for now passing up on Pittsburgh. I think almost regardless But I will take the Bucks money line Bengals money line and the Packers plus 10 and a half Against the bills. We'll talk more about week eight on Thursday with Ryan Williams getting his read on this week's games and also We'll talk some props with JJ Zacharyson on Friday. So plenty more to come on week eight here on the covering the spread podcast Before close up for today They've got to go back to last week and recap how things went here on the show on the college football side of things Ed's bet last week was on Texas A&M minus three against South Carolina And that one did close the three South Carolina though got out to a 17-nothing lead in the first quarter Texas A&M clawed their way back was a three-point game entry in the fourth quarter But a lot of walkiness a snap off a helmet. It was a really weird game. They did wind up losing outright So no cover there. So weird weirdness going on South Carolina side They didn't play particularly well, but they won the game and they didn't cover So no win on that one my week effectively got bailed out by the Seahawks Not just on the show bets But also like my actual bets because NASCAR didn't go particularly well either. So kind of got bailed out by the Seahawks I had That charge of Seahawks team under 51 and a half it did close at 51 So a bit of value, but that game went over by 10 points I also had Colts Titans over 42 and a half that one features 29 points and then Matt Ryan got benched So clearly bad read by me, but the one money line of spread that I had was a Seahawks money line That was plus 250 when we spoke on Tuesday closed all the way down at plus 188 So a lot of movements. They did wind up winning. They looked really good So the two totals probably bad process and bad results, but the money line in the Seahawks I think good process and good results I felt good about that Just kind of bailing me out with the Seahawks there So thankfully Gino Smith is there to have my back and bail me out on what could have been a rough week JJ Zach Grayson hit both of his yardage props He had Robert Tunyon under 32 and a half and PJ Walker over 151.5 Tunyon actually caught the final play of the game started the lateral and It almost skewered JJ for no reason like it was a good bet and he was gonna win and he did win But because Tony finished right at 32 But almost got super super unlucky with that lateral at the end that one did hit by a half yard So good job by JJ there and PJ Walker played really well In fact, he almost played too well because they were ahead and didn't have to throw but he still got over 151.5 finished at 177 so Couple close calls for JJ almost again too good But luckily both those did wind up hitting as well good process good results there for him JJ talked about unders and the Jets Broncos game He wanted unders on the Denver backfield and the Jets pass catchers if people Overreacted to news that week. No Jets pass catcher had more than 24 yards outside of Michael Carter No Broncos back had more than 33 yards rushing or 51 yards of scrimmage. So likely a successful strategy to Depending what the numbers you got there once things opened in that regard anytime touchdowns for JJ We're Nico Collins and something Michelle nose did not hit But could we cross the board for JJ hitting on the artist props and nailing his situations to monitor that he discussed Ryan Williams at Ryan Alexander score W nailed it again this past week He was six and one on Sunday. The loan loss was Ravens minus six and a half He had the cheese minus two and a half Seahawks plus six the Seahawks charges over 51 and a half our Raiders minus seven Bucks Panthers under 40 and a half and the Jets Broncos under 40 and a half as well Then last night Ryan didn't miss a total under 40 and a half He also had the Pat's defense for an in-time touchdown and remonder his sedance in over 63 and a half rushing yards, but he had Khalil Herbert anytime touchdown plus 550 yet He scored on that screen. He said hey I mean they're gonna ride the hot hand and this gap between Herbert and Montgomery is too big and That proved to be true. Herbert got a lot of work scored that screen So got the in any time touchdown a plus 550. He also equanimity is saying Brown Over 13 and a half receiving yards. So good week by a riot good here by Ryan, honestly In a good way to to end things there. So hopefully Things will well for you this past week of following our stuff again Ryan nailed that JJ. Good job. Um Hopefully got the Seahawks money line as well feel pretty good there hoping to have a good week again this week Nervous buying into some bad offenses, but again, I trust what the numbers are saying here I trust the underlying data and I think we'll be on a good foot for week number eight as mentioned We'll talk more week number eight on Thursday first So college football coming up tomorrow afternoon Most likely on the covering the spread podcast feed and on the Fandall YouTube page after that So go subscribe both those places the Fandall YouTube page and the covering the spread podcast feed to get They these shows as they go live each and every day big Thank you once again to Rob Friedman check him out on Twitter at pitching ninja Thank you to him for tuning in coming in on with us throughout this entire year blast talking him every single week Picking his brain on pitching who better to give us insights on that side of the baseball world We'll see how the world series plays out maybe we'll talk more baseball next Tuesday, too Depending on how things look on my end. Maybe give what my money line model saying on that one We'll see about that if you've got any questions for me. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I am s a n and e s you can also follow the Fandall podcast network at Fandall podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck to you with your bets across the NBA and a shell and of course NFL for this week as well. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down college football week number nine This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network