 A lot of people are turning around and go, oh, that was the bottom. That was the bottom. That was the bottom. OK, before a bottom can be made, can we at least reclaim the 50-day moving average, right? Again. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com Weekend Update Show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a great trading week. Phenomenal action. If you look at the scoreboard this week, you see Dow. OK, less than 1%. You had the S&P crawling up about 2%. Big move obviously came in the NASDAQ space, right? NASDAQ 100, actually, NASDAQ composite, went up about 4 and 1 half percent, a little more than 4 and 1 half percent. What really stood out this week was the massive leadership. And you saw it all week. And some of the stocks rested on Friday. But you saw this really, really big leadership from the biggest cash hoarders, Microsoft, Apple, big, big moves. You had Amazon, really, really big moves. You had Google, right? You could go through the whole space. Obviously, Tesla will get to Tesla in a second. Had a phenomenal, phenomenal move. But from the macro point of view, and this is kind of where I want to keep this update short and sweet, because I got 38 million basketball games today. So let's talk about it, right? Here's what we know, right? We know we've been in a bear market for the last six months. That's undeniable. The longer we stayed below the 50-day moving average, the higher probability we were going to go lower. And that was pretty consistent for pretty much the last six months, even going through the first time that we lost the 50-day all the way up on January the 4th. It started a pretty aggressive nasty cycle. And the one thing that continued to play out, the theme that continued to play out, was even though we're in a bear market, the market was going lower, we still had pockets of strength in between all the selling. And you would have pretty good run-ups. And again, this is kind of you've been watching the video just in the last several months. You kind of know that was the common denominator throughout this bear market. You had your runs. You had your runs even reclaiming the 50-day moving average here and kind of going on an extra run. But the point is once we lost the 50-day, it started a nasty selling cycle as well. And what we saw this week was, first of all, phenomenal action. You got to give the bulls a lot of kudos. Incredible, right? Every dip was bought this week. All data was negated. All Fed talk was negated. Everything was negated. The most important part was the structure, the organic structure, the out-of-the-money, deep expiration, which we saw in every single leader. That's why these stocks started to really, really run on a really heavy outside money betting. And the most important part is we started reclaiming bigger levels, not the biggest level yet, but bigger levels. And you can see that. Here's, let me show you the first one. Here's the reclaim of the 20. Here was obviously the reclaim of the 50. We rallied. What happened when we lost the 50? We started going lower. We'll get to that in a second. Here's another reclaim of the 20. Started rallying for about seven, eight days. Once we started losing the 20, we went lower here. And here's kind of fast forward to this past week. We reclaimed the 20-day moving average. And now we are at the 50. Not only are we at the 50, Friday got rejected perfectly. Like a perfect reject at the 50-day moving average. And if you watched Thursday night's video, that's what we talked about. We talked about, I believe, I believe that we were going to have one more day of aggression. I thought the first time that we were going to test the 50-day moving average, we were going to get rejected. Just because, again, it's such a major area. It's such a big sentiment change that you're not going to just blast through the 50-day moving average on your first try. And if you flip that reverse, any market that's coming down into rising support and hits the 50-day moving average, there's always a high probability that buyers are going to defend that 50-day moving average the first time and bounce. So here was kind of the reverse effect. So we did have that bounce. We did have that move into the 50-day moving average. The market opened up lower. The jobs number wasn't great initially. But we talked about it last night, Thursday night's video. And we talked about it pre-market. I believe that everything was going to go green, just because of the momentum and the idea that everybody was assuming all those betters, all those bets that were buying the 750 weeklies on Tesla. They were buying the 17s on Amazon. They were buying all these different stocks with anticipation of them going into the 50-day moving average, they were going to get paid off. And that's exactly what happened. The market really discounted whatever data that was from the jobs number. And the market started really going well, right? Really, really going well. And right when we got to the 50-day moving average, if you go on my regular Twitter account, I posted this. We're probably going to get rejected. Here's the 50-day moving average. The last thing you want to do is start putting on fresh positions at the 50-day moving average, because you probably have a really tough time. And yada, yada, yada, we got rejected off the 50-day moving average. We actually went red. But the good news is the bulls did not roll over, right? It wasn't a scenario that we went red and then lost 200 points on the NASDAQ. We went red, buyers came back in, and we actually caught a fractional positive close on the Qs, which really sets up for this week. So again, the pivots on Friday were great. It doesn't make a difference. We talked about this on Thursday's video, Wednesday, when we thought it was going to happen. Tesla was a monster. Roll blocks had great option flow. Rivian had great option flow. He had really great action on Friday. That's over. We don't care, right? We don't live in the past. We always talk about the first day of your life. Today is the first day of your life. Whatever happened in the past in the past, we don't live there anymore. What's going to happen now? And going into this week, there's no possible. And I can't under-emphasize or overstate whatever the hell that word is. How important this week is for the bulls, right? A lot of people are turning around and go, oh, that was the bottom. That was the bottom. That was the bottom. OK, before a bottom can be made, can we at least reclaim the 50-day moving average, right? Again, stop trying to overthink. OK, stop trying to get cute. Nobody cares. Nobody cares about who predicted the bottom. That's irrelevant. That's water cooler talk. If you're looking for likes and shares and all that stuff, well, then that's what you're doing. Nobody cares, right? Nobody's going to give you a trophy. So before we could call a bottom, number one, we need to reclaim the 50-day moving average. And now we are right back to where we were right over here. And now the question was, can we do it, right? That's the million-dollar question. Are we putting in a top? Did we put in the top on Friday, hitting the 50-day and getting rejected? Or is Monday or Tuesday going to come, reclaim this 296.75 area, and then start moving up? There's also one little area here above the 50-day that needs to get cleared out. But again, let's put the cart in front of the horse. The bulls need to reclaim 296.75 on the close. Everybody see that, guys? That's where it got rejected on Friday, right? The slight blue line is the 50-day moving average. There is no room for debate. The bulls are either going to reclaim the 296.75 level on the 50-day moving average and start making its way to the 300 level of the next supply zone, or they're going to get rejected again and close below 289, which is the rising five-day support, and go low. Right now, us sitting here on Saturday morning, we're guessing. You could turn around and say, yes, that was the bottom. The bear case is turning around and saying, well, that was the bottom. We just got rejected off the 50-day moving average, and they couldn't get through just the way they couldn't get through right here, right here, right here, right here. So this week is super-duper important. If you're a swing trader and you're looking for risk on, which basically means starting to build a book, you need a close for you to have a substantial shot, a puncher shot for this market to expand into the summer after Labor Day. We need to put in a close over this 296.75. If that's the case, start looking at your favorite stocks. If they start mirroring the NASDAQ 100 and start putting in closes over the 50-day moving average by themselves, then it's going to start a green light. Now, here's how you manage your swing. If your stock or the Qs start closing below the 50-day moving average, that is your light, right? That is your clue. Get the hell out of my inventory. I want nothing to do with this market, because if you didn't do so, right, you had every opportunity to do so. The first couple of days here under the 50-day moving average, if you turn around and say, well, let me just see what happens or technical analysis doesn't work, well, you have the next three months of deep help. And that's exactly what it was. You might turn around and say, well, it wasn't that bad. Yeah, it was deep help. We had, the NASDAQ literally went, the Qs literally went from 353 to 269 in a matter of two months. Don't tell me you held your position you were able to sleep at night, right? That was your clue. Once we close below the 50, the risk is off. The risk is gone. You need to go into cell bias mode and you need to clear out all positions. Once we get above the 50-day moving average, and that's exactly why this week is super-duper important, once we get above the 50-day moving average, then risk goes back on, because that's the really shortest term of macro supply that gets reclaimed and the money will start flowing in. But any close below, that's your secret sauce to get out. The S&P will use the spies as a perimeter. It's lagging a little bit, right? Because again, there's a lot of companies that have exposure to China and this, that, the other thing, supply shortages, this, that, the other thing, not that the members of the Qs don't, but there's a lot of companies that are still trying to get their business model straight, going in the right direction. So the spies are lagging a little bit on the Qs. For the spies to really get going, number one, they need to test this high here of 390 and close above it. But for the spies to really get going, you see the 50-day moving average here? For the spies to really get going, they would need to close above 396. We're still far away. We're still about eight points away on the spies. But again, the question is, if the Qs reclaim the 50-day moving average this week, are they going to pull up the spies? Probably, right? But if the Qs get rejected off the 50-day moving average and close below the five, the lagger, which is the spies are probably gonna roll over faster than the Qs because of their lagger on the way up. So we're still a little bit of ways from reclaiming the 50-day moving average on the spies. When you look at the Russell and you look at the small cab group, again, it's getting there, right? It's getting there, not as aggressive as the NASDAQ, but it's getting there slowly, but surely, I think the IWM needs to put in a close above 178. If the IWM can get above 178 level, then again, it's gonna start fueling speculation money to come in. So we're ready to set up, man. We're kind of do or die. This is not, you know, technical analysis is not, you know, it's not a discussion. These are big levels. NASDAQ is obviously the barometer that I trade because 99% of the stocks that I trade are probably gonna be members of the Qs or just part of a group that's just convenient with the whole run-up. So it's very, very important. I think by Monday or Tuesday, we're gonna know exactly where we are. A close above the 50-day, super bullish, a rejection again at the 50-day. And if we close below, you know, 289, right? If we close it below 289, 290, that's gonna be a major sell signal. So 297 up, 290 down, and everything in between is guessing. Everything else is in opinions. Nobody cares about our opinions. Nobody cares about the data. Nobody cares what you think is gonna happen. It's either gonna happen or it's not gonna happen. Stop thinking, okay? Let the data tell you. Let the closing price tell you. Let the price action tell you what happens next that you can make a decision like an adult with technicals instead of making a decision like a child with emotions. Nah, nah, nah, I can't hear you, okay? No, no. It's all about price action. It's all about the closing price and it's all about the options market dictating what's gonna happen next. Big news, obviously, after the close is nothing really surprising. I mean, we talked about it numerous times over the last couple of months. Tesla, it looks like the deal is pretty much a dead deal, right? It looks like Elon Musk is walking away. Not really surprised. We were talking about it for months now. It was just taking too long, right? Really, really too long to play out. Tesla was strong. Tesla's been by far the best mover of the week. It reclaimed all these levels here, pre-markets trading at the top of this channel here. I think any close above 7.72 will probably get a move into the 7.90s, will probably get a move to the 8.10. But again, we'll see how Tesla acts. Other stocks in the group have been great. The video saw really, really aggressive call buying towards the end of the week. Not as great as all these other charts, but hey, if this thing starts breaking down this channel here, we did see some pretty aggressive 160, 165, 170 calls going into this week. We saw some 190s towards the end of the month. Amazon has just been a rock star. We still see a bunch of 18s and 20s rolling in. Tesla towards the end of the day, we saw the 750s, 760s, 770s, a little bit of the 800s. So the market is set up here. So that's it, guys. Sometimes you need to figure things out. Sometimes you need the market to do the legwork for you and kind of get more clues before you can strike. All the clues are here, right? This is do or die, 296, 75, sink or swim, whatever you want to, whatever you want analogy you want to use, but this is the line in the sand. We're either gonna close above it and start a macro move higher or get rejected, close below the five day and continue this bear market. Guys, God bless, research is ready, charts are set up. Now the question is, do we confirm? Guys, God bless, I wish you all the best and hopefully I'll see you guys all on Monday. Take care.