 Week 11 is going to be a windy one in which we are thankful for domes because looking at the week 11 main slate in daily fantasy football There are a lot of games outdoors featuring some blustery conditions will break down What that means where we are turning to how to handle those win games and much more to get you set for the main slate on Fanduel in week 11. This is the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Numberfire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here as always by Brandon. Good new law. He is the senior managing editor of number fire calm Brandon week 11 cometh How you doing? Good. Yeah Was just sending out the tweet My once or twice weekly tweet that I that I do for the show I said we're breaking down a windy weird week 11 main slate My even though I was the one who typed it and I knew what I meant. I read it back to myself and read it is breaking down a windy Weird week 11 slate which I guess also applies and then I was just thinking like should I do both and then You know, I just make a statement on the English language, I guess really English is stupid. I think we can both You can just say that like you don't need to we don't need to go make excuses like it just sucks Like that's okay, and like that's fine. You know, it's just a dumb language and that's okay we can accept this we can move on and Embrace that this is just a fact of life It is windy it is also windy because we have to kind of navigate around all this wind because like we talked Monday about About how much I liked Lamar Jackson entering that Carolina game still don't mind him. Definitely. I will still get there I would assume but Enthusiasm gets dampened when wind is a massive factor. So we'll talk about what that all means. We'll talk about where else we're turning Guys we like in domes and much more to get you set week 11 In just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast Wherever you get your podcast we have this twice weekly NFL show every Every week and also next week three times the three check We're gonna have the week 11 recap Monday Thanksgiving show Tuesday at a time to be determined so I haven't asked you yet. And then Wednesday We'll do the week 11 12 main slate breakdown So a show every week day the first three weeks. Oh my goodness three shows next week Let's just say that three shows next weekend English is stupid three shows next week to get you set for Thanksgiving To get those as they are posted make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your Podcasts and if you somehow like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Fanduel and GMC are back to bring you the GMC Sierra mountain climber pick them a free-to-play contest series That gives you a chance to win a share of $10,000 in a fanduel site credit every Sunday Criticism GMC Here's how it works every Sunday during the NFL season You have a chance to answer questions around that day is non-prime time gains the more questions You answer correctly the higher up the mountain you'll move if during any week you answer every question correctly for a perfect score You'll reach the summit and win your share of $10,000 inside credit the contest series is now live So head to fanduel.com slash free slash contest slash GMC to start climbing the mountain Let's dig into the slate overview here for week number 11 and Brandon to me. It does revolve around Making the proper downgrades for weather because we've discussed in the show a lot how you don't cross off a game because there's wind You just take any downgrade. I would say 10% at 10 miles per hour I would say 15% at around 20 miles per hour that you downgrade You could still be on those plays after making those downgrades But you want to make those downgrades because looking at how the public acts with wind They don't tend to act they don't tend to be as reactive as Potentially they should be based on past roster rates and stuff like that. So that's kind of the key thing for me is Making sure I'm properly accounting For the weather a lot of these teams will face this week. What's the slate overview for you in week 11? Yeah, I think it's part of I mean part. It has to be partially that I Think I guess the way that my mind thought about it more Was less how we handle those those games and more are there games that are Not affected at all by weather that still might go overlooked Having a hard time figuring out what that might be we're talking about some Look it we're talking about Washington's offense in the transaction. I don't know. Don't make don't make this a we statement own your actions By default by necessity. We have to talk about like the what I think like Washington Stop saying we So we're gonna talk Washington stop we oh my gosh divorce that word from your vocabulary toss it out I I you Brandon Is talking about Washington But you know like we got some Look, I think the way that you phrased it on the note sheet and I don't I'm not I don't mean to jump ahead but For the bookmaker info section where we talk about the three best games basically I think you phrased it perfectly where it starts off with the highest total on the slate Upsettingly is between the bears and Falcons whenever that's the case We're gonna have to look at some teams That we don't typically really want to target at this point that doesn't mean we play them But I think for me it's like really figuring out There are gonna be some cross-off situations I don't want to make I want to make sure I'm not crossing off too many situations by being reckless Yeah, I think that it's it's you know digging in more to spots We typically might ignore potentially still ignoring them But like putting in the work to make sure that we should be doing that That's a proper process for that and also just like deciding which games can we actually trust I think there are two that I feel pretty decent about so we'll talk about those And dig into how we want to stack those later on let's start things off though with the injuries from a week number 11 The Rams place Cooper cup on injured Resurre after he had ankle surgery Matthew Stafford though able to get in a full practice on Wednesday Meaning he should be back to return from his concussion Let's assume that Stafford is cleared for this week Are you looking to go any of the Rams moving into a bigger role with no cup? That's tough We've talked plenty about Tyler Higbee over the course of the year I Don't really love this game against the Saints Higbee salary 6200 We're looking at a potential. I mean Mark Andrews did practice on Wednesday Dallas Goddard's out, but we were basically kind of looking at a slate where maybe there's no high salary tight ends Mark Andrews did practice by the way. He wanted a practicing. Yeah said, okay. Sorry. I miss her by that. No, no, I thought The first report I saw was that he wasn't supposed to practice But he did But I was I was starting to shape my mind around the slate of like we're not gonna have any tight ends therefore Tyler Higbee Could be one of the better plays just from a volume standpoint, but he like the salary still up at 62 I don't know what his true ceiling is We talk about this a lot Take Cooper cup off the field. There's gonna be volume. It's gonna be worse volume to go around I think there are some situations where like with Dallas Goddard like it's gonna be a downgrade to that offense But they still have the one to Smith and in AJ Brown Take Cooper cup off the field for this Rams offense. I don't really know I Yeah, I don't know if there's enough juice on the volume. So yeah, and not enough juice on the volume is Tyler Higbee's juice on the volume is like a stakes in the Barbie kind of thing on the bottom I think that's the title of Higbee's Biography yeah, so with him specifically like he was already getting targets targets weren't the issue it was what he was doing with the targets and We can reasonably expect maybe 10 targets, but like is that gonna lead to 52 yards? That's 46 yards. Yeah, 10 targets for 46 14 for 73 Yeah, 11 for 39. Yeah, like these are actual game logs in this year He's not had more than 73 CD get 73 last week. So that's something Yeah, but he hasn't scored yet and with that much volume even if they score once or twice like Eventually, it's got to go to Higbee. Yeah, but we're kind of talking like okay. He scores With the 73 yards at the cap like yeah 16. I mean it like I'm not turning that down but I Don't really think there's enough there I would probably be more open and I know that you're not but Ben's Quranic. No, just because the salary is so low at 53. Nope. Oh I'm not gonna get I'm not gonna get there, but I think relative I might be a little bit more interested He's basically a fullback like they used him as a fullback this year. I Don't want to use a fullback in DFS. So I don't either So no rams for me, how many points are they gonna score against the Saints? They're implied total 17.5. How many do you think those four zero like it shut out guaranteed? Like I think they are minus 300 to score zero points that that The Bears plays Clial Herbert on IR with a hip injury. We talked about that possibility on Monday David Montgomery comes into sixty two hundred dollars. He missed practice Wednesday due to a personal matter I'd assume he's good to go, but we'll talk about them in the bookmaker section Dallas Goddard place on IR Where they show their injury the Eagles facing the Colts this week Grand Calcutta Would be the pass catching tied in but also Tyree Jackson came off IR Tyree Jackson for those uninitiated is Taysom Hill if you made him bigger and taller. He's two inches taller 10 pounds heavier He was a better quarterback in college than Taysom Hill was I'm probably I'm not gonna use him, but I can I can I can fantasize Calcutta also could ball in college He retired briefly due to concussions But came back played for SMU use an Oklahoma before that So we'll talk about them in the French section later on the Zeke Elliott was limited in practice on Wednesday It sounds like he should be able to return this week But they also have a game on Thursday coming up which may factor into it potentially We'll talk about the Cowboys in the bookmaker section as well Mark Andrews and Gus Edwards both got in Limited sessions for the Ravens on Wednesday John Harba said earlier in the week that both were expected back Sean Jackson though did not practice the hamstring injury We'll talk about them in the trend section. Jamar Chase is expected to miss another week due to his hip injury We've seen the Bengals twice without Chase Thus far Joe Mixon has gotten the biggest bump tea Higgins salary is I would say reasonable at seventy six hundred dollars But it's also a very low total game. Now. This is one of the outdoor games With a lower wind projection. It's at ten miles prior for that one What's your view of this Bengals offense with no chase against Steelers? Oh They were So I said, we're talking Washington later on in the trend section Okay, so Jim didn't hear me on that one. I'm ignoring you The I was gonna look deeper at Cincinnati Without Chase there's some decent Like decent marks. This is a rematch game. Obviously teams already played in the opener which I never love Things are a bit different without Chase. So like it shouldn't be an exact same look I had I'm really struggling to see how this game is one of the games that is great to target I could see Cincinnati doing some stuff But not to the point where I think this is a back-and-forth affair. I think Joe mixed in salary a Bit too high at 9,000 given the the five touchdown game his workloads really good I'm not knocking that but I think injected into this game a bit lower Chase or sorry T Higgins 76 Was kind of in the consideration set for me for a love But I ended up preferring Amon Ross St. Brown and I really like CD lamb I don't know how much T Higgins I'll get to this week So it feels feels weird to be low on this offense, but I think I'm gonna be low on this offense Yeah, the salaries are appropriate and the total is low now I would say the opportunity cost of a lower total game is a lot less this week than it typically is because there's so many like rough games And like the Bengals offense is super volatile. So for a cash game, I probably won't get there But I could see going there for tournaments probably not with borough. I think that that's tougher to get to but like a Jamar or T Higgins with Pickens on the opposing side. There are a Friar Muth I think that works as well. So For tournament line-ups, they're in my consideration set. They're not priorities me Yeah, so like many like the some mini stacks I think we're both open to but you're a quarterback game. Yeah. Yeah, zero quarterbacks mini stacks, but not necessarily like a Cash game mini stack prep like priority. Yeah, and not even a tournament priority either. I wouldn't say It depends on how How tight I want to make my core if I spread my core out a bit more I'll probably get there But if I want to keep things just super tight and see what happens, then I there's a good chance I won't get there mark Ingram mispractice Wednesday with his knee injury. They also did sign David Johnson Yes, that David Johnson to the practice squad Which may increase the odds that Ingram sits. They're starting any Dalton this week Are you on Camara here assuming Ingram sits against the Rams or what's you view this offense? Uh Yeah, I took a long look at we had a discussion after the recap show on Monday about Camara specifically. I Think I'm I think I'm there on Camara just due to the the entire State of running back as a whole for this week. I Think Chris O'Lave is Potentially a slate buster waiting to happen eventually I don't know if it's this week, but his salary is not gonna go up unless he does have a good game But 6900 he's someone where I Could really use options in that salary range His workloads have been Pretty substantial scaled back a little bit in terms of the actual production But I kind of want to get there the The issue is I'm not gonna bring it back very often And I don't really want to play a receiver who kind of needs to go back and forth a bit To capitalize on huge opportunities Yeah, and the games that a lava is played with Jarvis who should be good to go again this week 25% target share for a lava 35% deep 20% in the red zone now a Couple of those games were with Michael Thomas to who will not play so that opens up more So, you know a 26 ish percent target share with a good amount of deep work from a pretty bad quarterback at 69 And in a not great game. It's okay I do agree with your assessment though that he has like changed the slate kind of upside. It's just like it's it's flawed but Flawed might be okay for this week. I prefer Camara between the two Camara like he's had two down games, but We know what he can do on the high end of his range of outcomes. He's still getting targets Which is kind of all I care about it's a tough match with the Rams are very good against the rush But that could encourage some more passing game volume for Camara So I'm still okay with them despite the tough matchup, but you know, everything's kind of muted there I would say Camara is one of my preferred running back plays this week I'm not as into him as I was like for example Jonathan Taylor Tony Pollard last week Oh, yeah but like I would say he's close to like a 50% exposure kind of guy whereas Pollard was 66% and JT was 59% for me last week. So Camara is probably about half is what I would think would hope for this week Yeah, I was I was basically I was all in on Taylor Effectively all in on Pollard. I think Camara around 50% I do think he's probably gonna make our head-to-head lineup Probably more so because of the salary than anything else. Yeah. Yeah, I agree Jerry Judy's ankle injury wound up being not too bad There's reportedly a shot that he plays this week now He didn't practice Wednesday the Broncos facing a hideous Vegas defense. My gosh hideous But the Broncos offense also is my gosh hideous What's your view of the Broncos entering this week depending on Judy's health? I Took a look at this one, too These this is such a they're basically the the Cardinals in terms of the appeal without the results It's a little bit unfair to the Cardinals, I guess because the results have been there occasionally for Arizona but Having a hard time going back to Judy because his role was actually his role has been better in recent weeks with Russ back But now with the injury, I don't know how healthy he's gonna be and if that's gonna go back at all I Probably have most interest in Greg Dulcich just because he feels tight end. He's still getting some downfield looks but the overall target here for him is still kind of capped at around 15% so I Not a whole lot of I Mean he's got like the best tight end matchup of anyone these guys all have really great matchups But my fear is kind of that they rely on the running backs and that's not gonna help anybody so I Again, this is one of the spots where we don't want to Typically we cross his team off if there weren't weather concerns for all these other quarterbacks and games and environments but my instincts there was Effectively to cross them off. Yeah, I don't know if that's too dismissive though Yeah, I mean I wanted to go coral and sudden but seven thousand is a lot Yeah for that offense. Would you prefer a lava or sudden? I Struggled with that Cuz like It's kind of taken the Judy injury for Sutton to have like a Great market share. He was at what 28% last week. Yeah 11 total targets 66 yards Yeah, so he's been at 28 and then before that 1520 12 20 so I could basically once the olsich came back and week six is Yeah, it's been down. I don't know if it's that one to one with like oh now we have great goals which we're not gonna throw it to Sutton, but My fear is like if it wasn't there before the injury That's kind of telling I guess and if Judy's expected I guess if I guess the better question is like a Lavi over Sutton if Judy plays but if Judy's out What you who would you prefer probably Sutton then yeah, but it's not my favorite. I might just skip the range I Do think the point in favor of going Broncos that Russ is really embraced the DGF So Sam Hopin of four for four had this chart this week that showed the number of yolo balls a quarterback Which was a a throw with a catch percentage of like under 33% basically like you know, yeah eff it Tori Smith is down there somewhere the flacko route and Russell Wilson has over 30 of them this year So he's just kind of been decafing and like against this defense that might be okay So that's the the argument in favor of the Broncos. Is that persuasive enough to get me to be super enthusiastic? No, but I do want I want to actually make sure I get some dulcich because tight ends a weird position Sutton I would like to but it's not a priority. I guess again is kind of a the takeaway for me strange because my data has The Vegas with a really low a dot allowed top four number there and it's actually good on deep balls I mean there might be deep balls, but I Just fear that they're gonna like chip away with yeah The running backs with the Tavius Murray no, no, oh wait, what right? Let's see on the Raiders I don't have a bunch of teams like probably he probably has been Oh Was it wow, yeah, I only remember like Minnesota on this is like 2016 Wow That's such a long time ago. How did I not remember he's he played for the Raiders? I don't know. You know, I guess it I guess because it was the Oakland Raiders. Maybe that was no, that's not an excuse I'm trying to give you the benefit out, but I missed her revenge game. I know I missed it I dropped the ball Honestly, so just take on a Smith first player in NFL history to score a touchdown back-to-back seasons on his birthday Which is honestly pure skill you won me a dynasty matchup because of that although I was tanking so Dick David and joku mispractice again Wednesday due to his ankle injury Doddaman people's Jones has feces without in joku, but now they're playing in potentially super windy conditions on Sunday now, it's worth noting this Browns bill's game could potentially be moved could potentially be moved indoors as well I don't know if we got a slip Raj a 20 to get this game moved to Detroit, but like buddy I'll give him maybe even $22 move this game to Detroit. I'll give up a trip to Subway For a trip to Detroit. So what's your view of this Browns offense? In the wind Assuming in joku sits again, and then also hypothetically they move to Detroit. How are you gonna get them? How how likely do you you're taking drink how likely do you think it is that they're actually gonna move this game? Pro football talk had a tweet this morning about it and Adam Schefter was tweeting about it So I think it's like probably 50-50 honestly. Okay. Um, if this game were to move It'd be super fun. Yeah if it doesn't I Think that you can Roster players and better better games to the point that I think I would not really get there with anyone I'm waiting for in joku to come back Harrison Bryant had a solid role last week, but not a whole lot of production What's up? Where's Amari Cooper? Is he still $9,000? 72 If I was like in a dome, it's important to remember that Amari is physically incapable of playing football on the road Regardless of where he is Mr.. Narrative I'm so annoyed by this like I remember like tracking it back in the day and like I'm just annoyed by it now Was it a true road game though if it's like neutral what would that what would that town has? I don't know I don't care. He's the worst You say 72 Yeah, he's 72. It's better than it was. It's better than what I think I think he was 78 last week. I Would like DPJ quite a bit though if they were to play this game in Detroit because he's $5,900. He has a legit yardage upside That game would not be too bad. The bill's defense has a lot of injuries in the secondary They've shown to be somewhat susceptible. So I would like in DPJ a lot if that game were to move Yes, it's telling that for my game splits in my spreadsheet when I when I Input that in Jyoku was out. I need to have somebody in Just to you know have a qualifier there and my mind went to DPJ and not Amari So I should tell you plenty. It's not wrong What we're talking about this game very briefly. We could talk about it in the weather I guess you want to hear whether It's up on here. Okay. So Gabe is 71 Wait Gabe versus Sutton versus Olave assuming let's say no Judy At that in Detroit Gabe Mm-hmm, and then I think I love Gabe if they move this game I think the Sutton Yeah Get a find out find a dome for Buffalo to play in there apparently building a stadium that like is trying to negate wind It's an it's a it's an open roof stadium, but it's supposed to like negate the impact of wind, which I'll take Well, just put a dome over. Yeah, I think I think every game should be played in the dome But that's just me so I say Gabe number one there. Yeah We got so many qualifiers here though like Gabe in Detroit Sutton without Judy Olave Sutton without or Sutton with Judy and then Gabe is how I read this I would rank that the exact same way JD McKissick missed another practice Wednesday with his neck injury without him Touches have been pretty concentrated between Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson Splitback field though. We'll talk about Washington in the trend section the Lions Desiree DJ Charter turned from injured reserve. It sounds like He's probably not a lock to return this week, but Josh Reynolds missed another practice on Wednesday So it is no worthy at least DeAndre Swift full practice Wednesday for just the Third time all year. He's gonna get a 30% snap right now. There we go. They're gonna unleash him Oh, instead of six carries, maybe he'll get a seventh as a treat We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section Baker Mayfield will start for the Panthers this week PJ Walker as an ankle injury San Darno will be the backup How does Baker starting impact a view of DJ more terrace Marshall and DeAndre Foreman as 13-point dogs against Ravens? Yeah, let's assume I have a view on those guys Um, so that I can modify it I Don't know. I mean, I like terrace Marshall as a prospect. I have a hard time getting there Tied to Baker as huge underdogs. Yes, that implies that there will be passing volume But that does not necessarily imply that there will be a whole lot of efficiency or touchdown equity on those targets DJ more at 67. I think you could Do worse than that if you really want to play like a Lamar stack With I guess either those guys where you're basically banking on like this game is gonna overperform expectations But outside of that there's no chance I'm touching those guys and Everything we've seen from DeAndre Foreman implies that he will not have a huge role if they do in fact trail from the get-go But there is also a path to them Competing because like, you know, yeah, I mean there's a path for every team to compete, right? Like as you would say, what are the odds? Yeah, exactly. What are the odds? So would you use those odds that they are competitive as a proxy for roster rate on DeAndre Foreman? Because his role relative to his salary is pretty good if they keep that in competitive so I think that what I would want to do is kind of find odds this game that stays close and use that as a way to Get my roster rate for Foreman. I think that's probably what I would do Would you play Foreman without Ravens? I would not I Probably would just because there aren't a ton of Ravens. I like I just feel like if you're playing DeAndre Foreman You're assuming that the game is is competitive unless you're banking on like it being You know Carolina being able to control the ball and thus Hurting the Ravens So this seems bad, but my model gives the panthers a 15% shot to win this game Seems bad. There are scenarios in which they're close and they lose, but 15% is not big So I'll probably be around 20% or so Foreman. I think is what I'd want to cap it at They've played Atlanta Cincinnati and Atlanta Foreman snap rates have been 66 percent 42 percent 67 percent. So basically two-thirds of the snaps whenever they've Played from ahead or been close. Yeah, they lost an Atlanta game But whenever they were trailing he had seven carries 23 yards Just just barely got over 40 percent of snaps. That's why I think that he's Like if you haven't seen a long team and you him sure take like the chance at whatever happens But I don't really think I'm gonna go out of my way to want to roster Deontay Foreman this week, but you won't even do the 20% under the assumption, you know the assumption lines to where they keep the game close I'm gonna have a hundred percent David Montgomery so That'll that'll help I'm gonna have a decent amount of Alvin Camara despite not loving that situation too much but also Like spoiler alert one of my loves this week and this is gonna sound super obvious, but it's safe one Barclay We have so many concerns all of all across the board Play the best plays, baby. Say corn against the Lions though is like, no, that's the kind of thing You might regret at 130. You're like, I had David Montgomery. I didn't have to play Only the superstar quarterbacks, but yet I didn't get enough say one like that feels like I might have like I might have like 75% safe one Yeah, so you talked about the downside the foreman which are fully valid So I want to keep the lid on the roster rate, but also it's important to remember Ignore the floor, baby. We don't need to care about the downsides. Does he have a path to the ceiling sick? He does cool. What's the odds he gets there 20% awesome. I'll use 20% Deontay Foreman, so ignore the floor as always Final injury to note Corey Davis missed practice on Wednesday coming out of the Jets by week kind of surprising I thought at least he has missed the past two games with a knee injury Garrett Wilson's target share 28% in those games So where are you out on Wilson if Davis sits against the Patriots? They did play already once this year, correct. They played like two weeks ago. Basically, I thought so Wilson had 115 yards in the first game against Patriots I think we actually did a deep dive on value receivers that week and Wilson was one of the guys who popped But I said like the matchup wasn't great I mean I had like two shares. It was stupid. I shouldn't have done that even 14.5 Points that game 13.9 against Buffalo. So he's done it in pretty you know pretty tough with no touchdowns and either with no I mean he's got two touchdowns and they came in one game. So he's gonna be due for touchdown regression Don't know how many touchdowns this team will score but I need a couple because I did bet the Jets plus three and a half So could use a couple. I'd be interested The issue is the way that I'm that I build lineups now as I I get super concentrated and have a small player pool Yeah, you asked me this a few years ago. Be like, yeah, I want to pivot away from Devontae Smith a good amount Therefore Garrett Wilson is gonna be something I go to a lot It's gonna be hard for me really to look at a lineup and click on Garrett Wilson Over Devontae Smith this week. So I think that I agree the Devontae Smith part But I think because there aren't any value options. I like it receiver I might wind up being here like with Devontae Smith like having Devontae Smith and Garrett Wilson if we get The wind to come down in Baltimore a bit and I can justify Devin DuVernay that would reduce my interest in Wilson a bit if We get that Buffalo game move to Detroit and I can use DPJ I would reduce a bit but as of now with where things currently stand I probably will wind up having some Garrett Wilson just because I don't like any Receivers below him in salary right now. Yeah, I think that I probably made it sound like I was too low on Wilson specifically It's just more. I don't know how much I'll get because I'm gonna be okay playing a lot of Smith this week Yeah, I don't thought I Typically try to like keep my roster rates at receiver lower my exposure at receiver lower because it's a volatile position I don't know if I'll be able to do that with Devontae Smith this week Gonna be a little scary. It depends. It depends it, you know entirely on your risk tolerance Let's move now into the bookmaker section for this week and begin as you mentioned with the upsettingly high total for the bears in The Falcons 49 and a half it didn't come down by half a point or a point. So that's good at least Falcons favor by three We know both these teams want to run the football Time of game over under two and a half hours here that makes it hard to stack. We like Justin Fields I'm gonna speak for you. I'm gonna put a wee in there. We like Justin Fields. We love David Montgomery with no Clial Herbert But is this the least stackable almost 50 point total game you've ever seen? It's up there for sure This also has the potential to be one of the more frustrating games Whether you stack it or don't in a sense um You know, we definitely like Justin Fields but His production hasn't specifically translated to the rest of his team very much Co-comment is I believe since week eight the overall tight end one in fantasy football and half PPR scoring But he has 15 targets in those three games Which is absurd five touchdowns I I As we were talking about Garrett Wilson as looking in this range Dona Mooney at 6,000 you think don't know moon you top receiver for a team in You know the best game of the week based on the bookmaker numbers. I don't think I can get there His two games this year with more than 10 fandal points or three. Sorry. You got to 10.3 in one of them I Just don't think there's a lot of touch and equity and frankly We love Justin Fields and we're not gonna like downplay it. He's been talking for a few days about how sore he is Yeah, I think that might take the ball out of his hands a bit more. Yeah, I don't know That's probably good for Montgomery Which I think is good for David Montgomery. I don't know if that necessarily means more Passes though. It probably just means some extra hands up handoffs to David Montgomery. Yeah, and I know with Herbert out, but like maybe just an Ebner, right? Like yeah, we might just see like Ebner get like eight or nine carries Yeah, and I think that's okay for Montgomery, but I think that's a fair thing to point out for Justin Fields now I I do think that Mooney is at least like somewhat viable because I can envision a path to 85 yards or two or two touchdowns like I can envision that path because of the game environment because of the opponent and because So T. G. Hernandez He's on Twitter at T. G. Hernandez between this week about how often the Justin Fields line-ups in last week's Sunday million on a different website Had fields by himself versus fields paired of the pass catcher and most of the fields line-ups were naked with no Pass catcher in there. So I actually think that there might be an edge in pairing him with someone Maybe that's Montgomery, which I'm fine with because I'll get the grand majority of the Yardage and touchdowns for a team that could score a lot of points this week but I also think that that's Mooney because I've commenced gonna get some some Buzz as a result of all the touchdowns. So I think If I have let's say 10 fields line-ups, I'm gonna have Montgomery and eight of those probably honestly But then included within those I might go with like five or six Mooney and Then have the recipe by himself Maybe I get a clay clay clay pools route ray went down last week. So I don't really really want to go there Byron Pringle did he do anything last week came off IR. I know he's 48. No, okay. We're not doing that Don't listen to me So I might go Mooney for the most part and Have either Mooney or Montgomery in every fields lineup To make sure I haven't paired with someone but I think like six Mooney line-ups is not totally out of bounds No, it just so like at the salary. That's much more justifiable because you know It feels really does have a good game and as much as we can like pick on Mooney for not having like the ceiling games You don't really want to look at a lineup and see like a 9.8 from now Mooney and be like off He just like did more, you know, it really would have helped the entire lineup, but We don't we don't care about floor, but Mooney's not really gonna get you like zero. He's not that volatile. It's just The volume isn't particularly great and statistically speaking. This should be his best game I just worried that like last week against the Lions should have been great. He had four targets, right like That's tough. Yeah, so I'll use them Yeah, but I will not have him outside of fields line-ups. I don't think he's maybe as a bring-back for like a Falcons thing, but Well, I was gonna ask cuz we didn't really talk we're talking both sides scheme Is this a two quarterback? No, give it stop it given the entire state of it's that Michael Jordan gift No, stop it get some help We're here to talk about Marcus Mario to stop it get some help This is actually the meat. This is usually directed at me when it's Mariota. Um, he's 72. I Needed to be lower than that. Honestly Like he checks a lot of boxes and I think people are not box. Yeah, he does And I don't think he will go there because he just had like this like aesthetically hideous game on Thursday night against Carolina. It was Like he thought he was my homes Marcus Mahomes was out there Patty Mariota, so I I'm not saying that you're into Mariota this week, but you're very I assume still plugged into it to Mariota Do we think that there's a chance he gets benched if he struggles like for much longer? Not in game. I don't think I think that'd be like a mid-week thing if it happens Okay, I think there's a chance to get benched eventually, but I don't think it'd be in game personally, okay, then If not for Dak for 300 more and salary the back weren't there I'd give it more thought if that you have Dak were like 82 or whatever. I think I'd have a non-zero number of Mariota lineups Yeah, I can see that on the as far as the I'm not using any Falcons running backs But as far as the past catchers go if we look at the games they've played with Kyle Pitts Drake London 6.1 targets per game 1.2 deep targets and 1.1 in the red zone I'm going with raw targets and not share because this team is a nightmare Kyle Pitts 6 targets per game 1.9 deep targets per game and 0.6 red zone targets I could divest from pits and a heartbeat if he were to be popular, but like his usage is actually not that bad to be fully honest and Although it's a lot of like prairie yards He has converted at times on the volume he has got like he had an 80 something yard game a couple weeks ago 80 80 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. I Think pits is actually an okay play. Am I dumb and where you out in London? I Don't think it's dumb It'd be it'd be harder to justify if tight end was better. Yeah, you know, it sounds like we're gonna get more Andrews I don't know if it'll be a hundred percent. I don't know if that'll matter. He's still probably gonna be Mark Andrews, but Within this game, it's really easy to like Kyle Pitts at salary he's kind of Early on in the season Drake London was the guy and Kyle Pitts was secondary that's kind of flipped in recent weeks, so I'm not out on Drake London just because value of receivers hard to find but I'd rather play pits this week Yeah, and I think that they are pretty easy to go to in your fields line it's because the assumption then is that they get ahead and obviously the The Falcons will still run law trailing. So it does not mean that. Oh, yeah It's an automatic smash that they get up early on but it does make it justifiable and looking at Like some projections for this week London is not appearing on like you have to scroll to find him. That's a good thing I think in terms of because I can't use I can't justify him or pits at a high roster rate But it's in general. I think they're fine this week I don't know the the the salary finally matches with expectations I think so my question to you and I know that you can point to a 74 yard and an 86 yard game But since since the first two weeks, he's maxed out at 54 yards. He has not been over 40 yards in Like someone right? Yeah, sorry. Yeah, I thought it was Does that qualify as yardage upside for you because he did it, you know way back in So can you have yardage upside on a 6.1 overall targets and 1.2 deep targets per game? That's an average. It's not a ceiling I guess. Yeah, I think with a better quarterback you could say But like okay If if he winds up having a hundred yards and a touchdown on Sunday, am I flabbergasted? No So I think I think that he has he has that even if he hasn't necessarily shown it If you're talking about like Danny amandola back in the day if he got a hundred yards and a touchdown, would I be flabbergasted? Yes, I would be thank you for yeah So I think it's like He has it even though he hasn't shown it, but I'm not like yeah, of course he does like he DPJ has better yardage upside for being honest, which is weird, but What's that weird? I don't know No, any other thoughts in this game, you know, I'm gonna play a An upsetting amount of Cowpeth though, Cordero revenge game. I'll point that out, but I'm not gonna use them Second highest total much better game. IMO is for the Cowboys and Vikings in Minneapolis God bless domes as 47 and a half point total Cowboys one and a half point favorites here We don't know Zeke Elliott's status yet. I'd assume that he'll play but even if we don't get Tony Pollard as like a Featured back this game has some fun names So what's your view of Cowboys and Vikings and is this your favorite game to stack this week? Yes, it's my favorite game. Good answer. Love it. I like Dak. I like that one cook I like Justin Jefferson CD lamb Michael Gallup. Don Schultz. I Know the only one that gives me pause Who but the rest? Yes Gallup. I'll talk to you about Gallup later on. All right. I'd be happy to be talked into him As you know with with our guy I think we got a question on Twitter from from Oliver long-time listener former streamrider at one point But he asked about like identifying some You know regression candidates. I think Gallup qualifies if you okay, I'll look at some certain things. Okay fair enough I'm happy to hear that because I do like Gallup a lot as like a player So I'm amenable to that the one thing I would say this game is it's a heavy injury report game Where you want to be tuned in to the way things break later on this week because on Wednesday Christian Derisade in practice with Vikings. They're very very good left tackle that would be a concern given the past rushers that the Dallas Cowboys have it is also an Anthony Bar revenge game Anthony Bar Limited in practice on Wednesday with a hamstring injury did not play last week and the result that was Micah Parsons being used more as a linebacker than a pass rusher. So if Derisade doesn't play bump down the Vikings if Anthony Bar doesn't play bump down the risk in the Vikings if Everybody plays it's still a pretty tough matchup for the Vikings, but I'd be okay with them So I'd want to be tuned in injury reports here is what I'm saying to Marcus Laurison practice Wednesday But he said he'll play I believe so he'll probably be good to go But if Derisade doesn't play that would be a concern for me with the Vikings as of now I am okay with Dalvin Cook very okay with him I like him once again Cowboys rush defense struggling quite a bit at the moment Dal we were on last week paid off really good volume 84% snap rates are higher in three of his past four games getting more passing involvement to with six six and five targets his past three games, so I love DAL DAL either my I Was gonna see is my favorite piece in this game, but I love CD lamb and Dalton Schultz, too So I just like all three of those guys a lot. I think it's they're all like quasi priority plays for me those three Yeah, I think I think Dak might qualify as a priority play It's a single entry candidate for you. Yeah Okay, where do you want and single entry? I am this will sound a kind of weird and backwards, but in single entry I'm a little more open to Lower shot at quarterbacks with past upside because they help me get access to if I play Dak I'm more likely to be able to roster CD lamb or Justin Jefferson in a lineup where Otherwise I'd be you know for overlooking Justin Jefferson. Yeah, because it's hard to get to so Yeah, he's definitely I think my consideration set for single entry is as of now under the assumption that Buffalo stays in Buffalo My consideration set for single entry be Dak hurts and fields only those three as of right now. Yep. Same here Okay the reason I like Schultz and CD lamb is that the targets have been super concentrated for the Cowboys so far with Dak being back in those games since Dak press got returned lamb has a 30% target share with 64% of the deep targets obviously that'll regress, but that's very good Schultz has 21% overall 36% in the red zone Gallup at 16% overall 14% of the deep targets Noah Brown missed one of those games and that was Gallup's the sixth target game. He did a seven last week though with Noah Brown being back So that's all okay. So I'll just talk about Gallup here In games with Dak back 28 yards per game five targets per game But a nice solid 10.4 at 8 o'clock 2.3 downfield targets per game Which for me is 10 plus yards downfield but catch rate over expectation of minus 8 percentage points Inject that into a game more. I think there's gonna be scoring gals gonna be on a field runner routes. He's not gonna be someone who has 10 target upside necessarily, but at the salary with the underperforming tied to a Quarterback who is also under salary. I think that opens up a lot and Gallup can help me get up to Justin Jefferson And frankly, I don't play enough stud receivers. I know Jefferson just went off last week But you know, if I'm if I'm going the route of like wanting to be open to Jefferson I gotta be open to Gallup and I think that there are reasons to want to get there because of the underperformance It's fair. He's 56 that helps a lot too. So that's fair Okay with the Vikings and their two games with Hawkinson Jefferson a 33% target share 46% deep and 44% in the red zone psycho TG Hawkinson 21% overall 14% deep and a 25% red zone share knowing that we do have some value options at tight end in Dalton Schultz to 59 Kyle Pitz 55 Dulcet 55 and firemuth at 54 What's your read in Hawkinson at 65? I Like him. I think that he's fun to get access to in stacks I think it's another example of like why playing Dak in a single entry has appeal Because that savings could be the difference between Dak and fields or Hertz versus, you know stacking him you know game stacking him with Hawkinson And then like a lower salary tight end with basically like pits and Fields versus Hawkinson and Dak and I'm not convinced that one of those is substantially better than the other. Yeah That's fair. Okay final one Let's assume the Zeke plays what will you do with Pollard with a salary at $8,000? If I had a little more salary to play with I'd go there. I'm just to be different. I don't think he'd be a bad play I still think he'd get Possibly, you know 60% of the snaps because they might just play both of them together on some plays That's what I think that his role would still be fine But I don't think I can afford to get that cute at 8,000 because I don't have that much wiggle room Yeah, I think if people were not so eager to assume that he'll take over lead back duties, I'd be more open to it Yeah, I did well a little bit concerned there, so I probably would not be as high either Okay, let's talk about the Lions at the Giants Giants three-point favorites here total is 43 and a half That's been coming down during the week because of wind This one is at 15 miles per hour not 20 But still high enough to be a downgrade about 10% the Lions defense stinks though Both these teams have high usage players. How high are you on this game for stacking? I just wish we had Deandre Swift as a high usage player He'd be so fun to play and running back stacks against a quan It hurts Yeah, but I think Again, look, you know, it needs no one really needs to be told to like say Juan Barkley But for the way that this season's gone for me Generally, it'd be a week where I'm like, oh, yeah, I'd like say Juan probably not gonna get there just because the salary I think that could be a big regret because we do have David Montgomery We have Dak who can say with some salary I'm not saying Dak is in the same tier in terms of pure upside is hurts and fields, but At salary there are fewer guys yet to overcome. Yeah, that means you need less stuff to break in your favor to overcome it. Yeah We probably don't have to force in Mark Andrews at a high salary So like say quan is very very reasonable to get to And I want to make sure that I'm overexposed I don't know if I can really play any Giants past catchers It feels like it's been too much of a losing proposition Especially the wind up you can I think that makes it a lot easier to cross off speaking of that though, I Still love all Montero St. Brown on the other side even if the winds up Yeah, he is gonna score. He might score twice But you can just put that one in the vault. So It's scored twice. Yeah, I like that with a Montero like You typically see less passing volume when the wind is up and you see less passing efficiency. Let's say the Lions decide to throw the ball 25 times. I think that'd be a reduction from expectation 25 times 40% It's still 10 targets. Yeah from a brown So like you can still definitely use them It does downgrade him, but it doesn't cross them off by any means any other Lions for you outside of a Monro St. Brown or is it just is it basically just say quan and run it back with a Monro Similar to last week or as feels run it back with a Monro. I think that's basically it. Yeah, I don't know how How else you could see it? What did Slayton do last week? He had 95 and a ton. Yeah, pretty sure. That was a bit of a broken Not broken because he's the best player in football He broke it himself question questionable tackle But yeah, just he's the best four targets 24% target share There's another team where I have the raw targets down in my she's opposed to He's at 4.8 targets per game since Wandael came back Yeah, that's deep per game. That's that's that's a worse workload than London and Mooney I think the real question is will you try to play say quan in a head-to-head lineup or a single entry? Is he that much ahead? I probably can't get to Single I think I can I think I need to single entry I can because I can be more loosey-goosey with the receivers, but Cash game most likely I can't I want to but I don't think I can Just based on stuff. I've built so far Like I'm tinkering with one right now. That's Dak Lam and say quan and that's it's top even with Montgomery in there, so I Would like to but I don't know if I can for a cash game a single entry I'll make it happen because I can be I can use some lower salary receivers, but it's tougher for for cash games Okay, I think it makes sense. Let's dive into the trends here for week number 11 I'm gonna mute myself while you talk about the Washington offense because I do not want to associate with this trash So I'm gonna talk about Washington with Taylor Heineke They're they're gonna start Heineke again this week after looking at the like the teams involved in the bookmaker section There's a whole lot of question marks and again I think one of the themes this week is looking at teams that we would normally want to cross off and not think about too much But we it's harder to do whenever so many of the potentially great games are you know marked with some sort of issues? in Washington at least has players Specifically Terry McClearn and Curtis Samuel that we would want to look at So I'm looking at the splits here with Taylor Heineke Because they're playing In a pretty a pretty nice matchup. What's Heineke salary actually I'm not gonna get there. I just was curious No, no, no, I just was curious. I unmuted myself to say no. No No, no, but they're playing the Texans, right? I will get a spray bottle for you And that's a pretty pretty far stream pleasant freeze by the time I got here because that's there it's been snowing and we'll work on it I'll find a way Wendy I mean look, you know some guys are gonna have to play in the elements this week with their football games I'm having the podcast with the elements. I think the stream has been a little bit choppy because I see like trees almost blown over outside so, you know, we're We're all going through the weather up in the Northeast, but Houston 20th overall in adjusted defense based on number fires metrics 20th overall in Overall passing and rushing by the way kind of a nice symmetry there. Heineke himself has not been particularly good He's at negative point oh for passing that expected points for drop back if you account for defense as he's faced. He's negative point oh eight So, you know below expectation for context car someone's a minus point one to adjusted for opponent so Not a whole lot of difference here But Heineke is yet to face the past defense currently worse than 19th in number fires metrics So we're not really I have to put the comp games and see if guys actually take advantage of these matchups Don't really have that yet for Heineke But in his starts we have seen Terry McClaren get a 32 percent target share over half the team's air yards 120 areas per game. That's nine targets 5.3 downfield with 3.01 yards per route run Which is disgusting and he's doing that without a lot of red zone work a 3% red zone opportunity share, so You love the building blocks there for a huge game and I Would just be willing to venture that he will not be held to a sub 5% red zone share long term Curtis Samu 18% of the targets 13% of the of the red zone Opportunities three and a half rushes per game including 21 rushing yards per game I think that's fun last week with Dotson back McClaren start a 44 percent target share 128 yards eight out of over 15 Samus targets here 16 percent still four rushes They were able to keep the ball in the ground against Philly last week. So it's perfect for for the running backs I still don't love what I see from the running backs Brian Robinson 52 percent of snaps 26 carries, which you love 86 yards in touchdown Antonio Gibson 48 percent snap rate 14 carries three targets, but almost a 60 percent route rate, which is fun 58 yards in touchdown assume if Jamie physics back that scales back. So I'm not on the running backs but again, this is one of those spots where like Typically look at it. Oh, it's a good matchup, but I'm not gonna get there I think that there's the potential for both McClaren and Samo to have sizable games With basically not a whole lot of interest because the game mode itself is not appealing I think people might get to Terry because people love Terry people do But I don't think it's work People will get there, but it's not like he's gonna be the chalk, right? Sure, and if you're not the chalk then it's you're still differentiating a bit. Yeah We're also kind of struggling with a lot of running backs. So Like would you be open to McClaren? Samuel and bringing it back with Damian Pierce or are you kind of out on this offense even though we're Kind of forced to get a little bit strange this week. So Pierce is once again an optimizer love Yeah, I Don't like that because this is a really tough rushing matchup Washington's a very good rush defense and I have touchdown concerns for that offense always when you add in the tougher matchup That's kind of two things to worry about. So I like Pierce the Pia's The building blocks for upside that hasn't shown it recently and that's the kind of spot I want to buy into I just want to buy into it. It's in this specific matchup So I'm probably not gonna get there as far as the running backs. I agree with you Mmm, I could see people like talking themselves into it. Oh, yeah, 26 carries. Oh, I don't think so I don't think they can burn me for not using them yet even a really good matchup McClaren. I will use $73 is too low for his workload So he'd be in a consideration set as like the one of our loves this week I Think he's a better cash gameplay than he has a tournament play That might sound weird. I think he's a good tournament play still Over a hundred and in two of the past three. No, I think he has upside like I'm not saying that. I'm just like I I'm convinced he winds up getting popular and like that's always when I don't like Terry McClaren. So I Also would like Samuel if his salary not 61 like why is he not 57 like I'd need that $40. Yeah I mean we do but also we have David Montgomery Just think of it if Montgomery verse 66 then I know but like I want like I Know but I'd rather spend my salary elsewhere. And so like Curtis Samuel or Darno Mooney probably Mooney because I like the game more. I Don't know. I think I have a I think I'd lean towards Samuel. I don't think that's wrong Just it's tough Samuel or DPJ in the elements in the elements. I'm Samuel. Yeah. Yeah So it depends on what we have available Samuel or Garrett Wilson Wilson by a smidge. I agree. Okay With McClaren So my one concern is I don't know how often I'll be in this range because I love lamb at 81 I do like a mon rod 78 and then I like Olava I would like gave it there to move that game Okay with Sutton But also I adore Devontae Smith who's below them. So how often will I be in that range? realistically probably not too often So I think I like him, but I don't think I'll be in that range very much Right and I that that was my first that could be a mistake. Correct. Yeah, but I think yeah, you know If you're not playing safe Juan, you're taking the savings with Montgomery I'm not saying Terry's low salary, but it's savings from You know like the tier above him and I think that he has potential to join the bottom of That here he definitely does because he has a bit like like again To reuse this phrase, but he has the building blocks for upside. He has yeah, I said it with him, too So yeah, but like he has those so I can't push back on it Like if we're talking about that mid-range the around 7,000 range If I am there in our head-to-head lineup, McClaren is the first place I go to I sprint there for a cash game Just I don't know if I want to be there for tournaments Especially if I'm not going say quantum to cash game It makes it easier to get to McClaren and I would I would like to be there for that So Good cash gameplay. I might want to be more top-heavy in tournaments which might lead to him might not be in there But as Brandon said that could be a mistake because if everyone else does the exact same thing Let's go to my first tenure talk about the Ravens. They are Playing in one of the wind games against the Panthers But they also have the highest implied total on the Slates So I feel like we should at least discuss them They've got both Gus Edwards and Mark Andrews back at practice So they should be on track to play adding Edwards in Means I'm probably not going to get to Kenny and Drake. Drake has played really well Um, and I'm very impressed by him, but I think if they've got both that's tougher to justify With Andrews likely being back. They're most relevant sample is weeks five and six That's when they played with Andrews, but with no reshot pavement Interestingly, the offense struggled in both those games pass passing the ball specifically They underperformed expectations Relative to their matchup while throwing an early downs in both those games They've done that just three times this year in nine games. So it's noteworthy that both those games check that box But in weeks eight and nine, there was no Bateman effectively for week eight and no Bateman at all in week nine I didn't have Andrews for most part for most of those games And they actually did overperform expectations there. They ran the ball well, too Had a better than expected success rate on late downs. So I don't think they're incapable of moving the ball without Bateman and I think we can kind of Alleviate our concerns on weeks five and six a bit there in those two games five and six Andrews a 36% overall target share 33% deep 40% inside the red zone. My goodness Devin Duvernay 42% of the deep looks with a 20% overall target share The problem is that there are 13 point favorites here. The wind is up. So they might not throw a whole lot So I want to be on Lamar. I adored him Monday before I knew about this wind and They're legit concerns here. I don't Want to have take lock because I lost on Monday Duvernay Andrews pretty similar. I've interest there, but have some reservations Again the backfield If there were no gusts, I'd go to Kenny and Drake, but I think gusts will play So if gusts doesn't play I will go Kenny and Drake and I'll feel pretty good about him But it's hard with gusts. So I'm having a lot of trouble at the Ravens. What's your read on them all things considered here? Yeah, starting in the backfield So I do the start set column for for number fire and one of the things that I was really looking into is like The gust Edwards Kenny and Drake thing. Yeah A lot of places feel like as soon as gusts is back that he's the guy and the Kenny and Drake is a complete afterthought. So um If Drake were a little bit lower salaried Like because of how running back shakes out I think I'd at least be a little bit interested. I would do We don't typically play Ravens running backs, but there's not a whole lot of like Dominant plays necessarily so it'd be a little bit more open to it if they both weren't 68 So I just think that's that's interesting to see like It seems pretty split on like it's going to be a complete timeshare or like gusts is going to be the guy But um, that just stood out to me as far as the Margos We did like him a lot on Monday And you know, what we try to do always is contextualize all types of things Uh and explain a way like, you know, some of the bad that looks worse than it is, but You know pulling up his game log It's really tough to see and I don't care like what what this is to know that this is in his range of outcomes for 8400 um Like again, we don't care about like past completions, but he's had 12 27 9 In his past three because he's thrown 22 38 and 16 times like there's a chance he doesn't even throw 20 times or 25 times in this game Um, especially with the wind, especially because they should be able to control the clock And I think at gusts back they have another running back to lean on so the odds he gets 30 are pretty high, but the odds he gets under 20 are still pretty high as well. Um, it's not how I run deviations and stuff but like if I if I were thinking about this more like less mathematically and more like standard deviation of 16 points like it's a very high standard deviation And I think that's a bit much. It's a bit too much risk to when I embrace at 84 whenever we have fields and hurts uh just above him so I'm probably I'm not gonna say I'm not gonna have any limar But based on how many quarterbacks they tend to play I think I'm just gonna have the three with Hertz fields and in deck this week Yeah, the wind comes down a bit. I'll do it, but I need to come down because It if it's just one concern Like it's just wind if it's just the wind or just the fact that carolina might lay over Then cool. I can do it. But if it's both combined together and gusts back, that's tougher. Yeah If there's no andrews, I'd say as a likely would probably be I'd probably put him on par With friar, muth, dulcet and pits. I would not put him super far above them. Yeah I'm with you there Okay, I mean let's go just like oh go ahead like carolina is showing some fight But like it's recently against Atlanta Yeah, baltimore is like really high in my power ranking. So I don't I don't think we're getting there this week again 15% win odds not great Okay, you're talking about the eagles offense here with no dalis goddard. They're playing indoors. I like that. What are you seeing here? Yeah, it's tough because goddard played every snap last week, but He's out because he's just Very good and very fun. Yeah, because he got face masked and ruined Eagles bets um So we you know, we don't have a great uh A great sample without dalis goddard. So we're gonna have to do some extrapolation But the good news is and again, we talk about this all the time I already mentioned this specifically, but yeah, it's bad for jamon herds in this offense to lose dalis goddard because dalis goddard is good But they still have two two guys who can change the like Entire field whenever they're on the field with the two receivers that they have so I think it's interesting to really look in here because There's also a bit of a funnel defense with indy third and adjusted rush defense 19th and adjusted past defense Hurts against teams between 12th and 24th. So like these mid-range defenses Non-outliers. He has five games there. He's averaged 273 yards and two touchdowns Uh as well as uh 8.6 rushes 35 yards in a score per game, which I don't expect the the russian touchdown to hit on average, but um That's dominant. Uh, we've tracked jail and herds is a dot, you know week to week You brought up like the the high and low a dots and I kind of figured out it was Largely tied to the defense that they've played indianapolis is eighth in a dot a lot, which I don't love But I don't know if it's enough for me to move away, especially with smith. It's such a low salary I think that's being a little bit too cute um So i'm not that concerned, uh Now goddard is vacating a 20 target share a 26 red zone share And so far the targets have already been concentrated to azia brown with 29 And davante smith at 24. I think they're gonna be fine Like those aren't gonna go away. Those can really only Get better and I still think those like those guys that we know are good enough to do something with that volume otherwise, I don't I I feel like The eagles tight end situation will draw some appeal not like a ton, but i'm probably not gonna get there Uh jack stole has been playing more Uh calcuttaire like you said is expected to see the boost, but even at 4200 I think you're asking are you disrespecting tyree jackson by not even mentioning him? How rude This is one of the spots that too are like If they wanted him on the field, they could have had him on the field already. He's on the pop list He could have been on the field. He just got active. I thought he was back. Okay. I thought he's back already. No, come on rude. Okay. Um He still listens to the quarterback on pro football reference, which is hilarious to me. Um Um If I knew that it would be calcuttaire or tyree, I would use that guy I don't know if it'll be one or the other though. That kind of prevents me from going there Yeah, so I wish I if I knew definitively. Yes, I do it like if If shefter sends out a tweet about tyree jackson First of all, I'm gonna pee my pants second of all I would use him, but that's not gonna happen. So Um, and then quest walkins Has been involved. Uh 59 route rate last week 5300 I I joked about ben scurronic if I really needed to to plug in someone I'd probably just play quest walkins He has way more juice at 53. Absolutely. Um But I look I'm playing gm hurts. I don't care that dallas gotters out. I'm not downgrading him enough Uh to to move away from gm hurts Especially coming off of a you know a down game I'm gonna have a lot of ag brown. I'm gonna have way too much to vante smith Not touching the running backs, but I still feel good about the those two receivers and the quarterback here I do too, uh If you had to pick Um between hurts and sake one You got to pick one. Who do you pick? So I think that that's kind of the choice this week because of the salaries Because you can either go dak with sake one or hurts with like jt is kind of like the or hurts with like dowel or something like that um probably sake one and dak I would lean that way But I think that like so we talk about this sometimes where when I'm playing single entry I don't do the same lineup. Obviously in every single entry contest, which you shouldn't do by the way um, you should take advantage of the fact that You can enter multiple single entry contests. What I would do is I would have dak in one with sake one I'd have hurts without sake one and in the other I would split it and like I'd feel pretty good in doing that personally I I think that right now My quarterback rankings are hurts and dak top two fields three and then gap For me hurts or fields is in that tier with them, but I probably picked those two over him for right now I'm assuming there's going to be a decent amount of gap between hurts and fields in terms of popularity As in people prefer fields. Yeah Yeah, probably I don't care about popularity quarterback, but if I can get someone who's who's under rostered I'm not going to avoid someone because they're chalk, but I Will seek out someone if I think they're under rostered Sure, yeah Okay, let's uh, keep the discussion this game going we can circle back to more eagles in a second But let's talk about the other side of this game because we saw jonathan taylor blow up last week, which was super fun Love that But that came against the raiders their defense is not good this week. They're facing the eagles So I wanted to dive in to see if taylor was still viable here It is a tough matchup like from an overall defensive perspective the eagles have a tremendous pass defense That ranks sixth by my model their rush defense much more suspect as you probably saw Monday night they rank 31st and schedule adjusted early down rushing epa by my 2022 only model The only team worst has been houston. They're actually better than cleveland there somehow which is like impossible to comprehend They also struggle on late downs overall. They're in 29th thereafter adjusting for schedule We saw washington continually convert and third down on monday That's not a huge surprise based on what the eagles have done so far this year That leads to their ranking 11th overall defensively by my 2022 only numbers despite their great pass defense The cold strength 13th there. Uh, that's pretty Game close enough for the ground game to remain involved Defense has been especially bad recently for the eagles their past four games. They've been um Relative to expectation. They've been point one three point two two point one three point oh four worse an expectation Honorly downs against the rush so a lot worse in all four games Those final two games where there are two without jordan davis who is on ir he'll miss this game so I think the colts will be able to move the ball on the ground here And the hope is that they'll be effective enough there To keep it close uh for this to be a neutral script throughout But also with no knocking minds jt might be involved in a negative script. I think that's reassuring as well so We have more flexibility to get to jt knowing we had david montgomery at 82 or 62 Is that something you'll be trying to do this week or is this match up still too concerning for you to get to taylor at 87 uh, yeah, so we talked Um monday about taylor's route involvement 76 that was one of I think we said four games We're a running back. We're in that that high At least 75 of the team's routes. I like that um a lot and honestly I'm playing a lot of jt again this week. I think that he pairs well with this passing offense specifically I was trying to build um in the meantime like a hertz taylor a j brown lineup and see if that's viable Because that's going to be very hard to do But that also means that it should be uncommon Yeah, but yeah, I like taylor. I'm not going to the I know you didn't ask me specifically about the pass catchers I'm not going to get there. I wasn't going to bother But well, I feel like people I did pull up their numbers. Um, so let me see here I could control after this. Okay. Here we go. Uh, they played seven games with michael pippen and matt ryan Pippen has an 11 and deep target share Paris cambell is a five percent so paris cambell's had a lot of raw targets recently But nothing downfield and it's also a bad offense He has not had more than 76 yards steer that was last week, which is his most but If i'm gonna attack the eagles, I'd rather do it with jt than paris cambell I can almost make a Hertz taylor Brown stack work Hertz taylor divante is Very easy to do. Yes, which means it'll be popular, which is why you're doing this But I don't want to look at the load like you can get to a Hertz lineup pretty easily My question to you though is Would you be open to a receiver in the flex this week? Um Always open to it, I should say that never totally opposed. I think that with montgomery jt seikwan chimera and dalv all being guys I Want to use quite a bit. I don't think I'm gonna do it very often. I am receptive to it if it makes a lineup work But it will not be my default and it will not be close to my default. It would be an exception For me. Yeah, because it's basically where I am with this one. Um I think it'd be I think it'd be open to it to make certain lineups work But definitely not something I'd prioritize. Yeah Uh jt or dalv jt is 87 dalv is 83 um jt I could go either way probably would go dalv because I like that game a bit more but I could go either way And then nick chubb is 84. Let's assume the game stays in buffalo high wins. Would that push you towards nick chubb or no? Nothing will ever push me toward nick chubb So he does have um For the full season He's at 111 yards per game In the four games for dalv with his snaps up, he's at 106.5 So he does have more yards per game than dalv. His red zone share is roughly equal I think it'd be a defensible play to use nick chubb Um, I understand I'm with you. I'd go dalv and jt But like I think if someone out there is like, well, why are you being so dismissive of nick chubb? Like I get it like there are reasons to justify it Oh, yeah But i'm not gonna stack that game Is it like if it's in buffalo in those conditions, what about to try would you go chubb there or no? Uh, then yeah, I'd be open to it because I don't want to play game. Okay. That's fair Whether for this week as of now there is no snow during that bill's brown scheme But the winds are 21 miles per hour and I think the concern with moving it would be because of travel to get to that game So I still think there's a legit shot that game wants getting moved if it does I would really like uh gave the babe and No, no, I think that'd probably be the primary option there. Where would you put josh allen? I was gonna say we're what are we doing with allen? Um, 92 is a lot. It's tough It is great. It's a lot, but 400 great matchup for allen um He looks fine last week like he made some really dumb choices, but also He throws a pick six. That's awesome because it's better for game scripts. So keep chaos josh allen keep throwing picks, dude I love it. It's perfect. Um my One thing I will say is like, yeah inject josh allen into a dome like sure in theory fantastic shift him to a dome like hours before Sure, you know kick off like these they're not We look well, they they they would do it either today or tomorrow that that's in the nick the vinyl call so fairly Yeah, sure church I would say that like if If that game I'd prefer to fields Really? Yeah, okay Yeah, that's probably smart And a josh allen gave davis dpj stack that gets the juices flowing Sorry, it's just one of those things where if we get allen in a dome For 500 more than 500. Yeah, someone who's breaking record like yeah, you're right Let's scale it. Let's get some perspective there You're correct Uh 14 mile per hour winds in baltimore for the ravens and panthers downgrade there about 10 percent 10 12 percent I would say downgrade based on that We'll just make up numbers on the fly because why not who cares about data 16 mile per hour winds in east rutherford for the giants and the lions 13 percent downgrade there Again could be survival and then 15 mile per hour winds in fox bro for the jets and the patriots We'll go with a 12 and a half percent downgrade and fox bro for the jets and the patriots Um, I didn't ask you about any patriots guys. Is remandre and play for you or no? Uh, he so he's like playable, but he's not in my player pool. Yeah, I prefer delve I prefer jt chimera I'd agree that as well. Okay Let's go into our player picks for week number 11 on fan dual brandon a quarterback. Where are you turning there? uh jim hurts Everyone's buzzing about justin fields, which is deserved hurts kind of had it like a dud at least for game expectations Um against the division rival monday night Hurts is a much more prolific passer by comparison. He's got much better stack candidates even without dallas goddard Um, no reason to worry about the matchup No win concerns and also he's not Currently boosted by five rushing touchdowns in the past four games. So hurts is my number one qb For this week second love dak presscott Going back to back With the dak attack although i've probably gone Probably gone like full tom and manskey at this point um with back to back to back Dak recommendations, but um, he's still pretty like he's still beneficial Faces a non-elite pass defense that's better against the rush than the pass In minnesota is 25th an average depth of target allowed, but uh and 26th in yards per target allowed on down to a passes Dax face to two of the two of the three teams dax face since returning Our top eight by eight aren't allowed. So I think that maybe we get some unleashed deck this week Which is another reason why like out Yeah, I like deck two. He's uh one of my player loves just because I need salary savings this week I know that even with montgomery being in play I just hate the low sour receivers and that's forced me into dak. So dak is one of mine as well They've outperformed expectations and only downs passing in all three games of backback even last week despite a pick inside the red zone They still outperformed expectations Um, we have clear stacking candidates. So I love dak. I will talk about justin fields here I think that I've talked myself into ranking hurts higher, but with fields Maybe you could say down great hurts for the Goddard injury and justify this But let's say fields regresses to 80 rushing yards That's still fine. And like you can reasonably project him for like 65 to 80 rushing yards this week. I think that's that's fully fair Um, could get better passing efficiency against Atlanta. He's 87. So I think I've talked myself into Hurts and dak being at the top and then fields being third But anything that he feels is still a very justifiable play despite the high salary for this week I agree with you though that if we get allen indoors, then I would bump fields down to four I'd probably still use them, but I bumped not a four running back. What you going with air? Uh sake one again It's easy to say that I love them and then not actually build around him But I'm going to go out of my way to make sure I have enough sake one where I feel covered Um, you know cubies at the top A lot of them have weather concerns. Uh, the top tight ends are banged up even if we get Andrews might not be 100 fully unleashed but sake one against alliance has the potential to be one of the things that I just really kick myself Over, you know by like 130. It's like boy. He's got 75 scrimmage yards in the first quarter Like what was I was I doing being too low? Um, and they absolutely best game environment Among a bunch of different criteria for running backs second love is going to be alvin chimera Um, we fought about this after monday's show and then I warmed up. Uh, I don't I had to have three three running back loves I think I realistically have two with sake one and in david montgomery But I gotta have someone else here and where is a love ish he's like I don't know if i'm gonna get away from him in our head to head. So he's gotta uh, gotta fit here Tough ish uh individual rushing matchup and a low total but low totals as we learned a couple weeks ago Don't really matter as much for running backs LA's 20th and adjusted fandal points per target allowed to running backs the Pure volume hasn't been there for chimera out of the backfield recently market shares are still, you know, good Um, and I think you get eight eight targets this week. And then my third love obviously david montgomery 62 There's just no way around it as being a great play great matchup against atlanta Who's 25th in rushing success rate allowed to running backs and frankly for me like montgomery's the kind of guy who benefits more from High success rate than high like expected points per carry allowed because he's not gonna break many He just needs to rush for like five or six yards to carry in a single game. So I think that uh I like that and frankly He should see as much work as he can handle because his quarterback is Mentioning that he has leg fatigue from running so much. Yeah I have the two overlap ones. I have her chimera and montgomery chimera He's had a couple bad gains, but the set the snap rates are still absurd So you're asking yourself has he suddenly like become a guy who has no upside and the answer. I think it's pretty obviously no Um, he still has that so I want to treat him as if he does and if you give me a guy with You know, I guess in this matchup probably 30 point upside more so than the 40 He had that one game 30 point upside for 75. I'll take that every time. So I like chimera a lot with montgomery He was averaging 87 yards per game before his roll reduction 87 yards in scrimmage Which is typically lower than I want to be that's kind of in the single digits range But now he could get more work with no herbert because that You know, do they trust ebner as much as they trusted herbert back in the day? Probably not and also The offense is just better now than it was then like even if it does regress They're just a better offense than they were the scrimmer point. So I think montgomery is Despite concerns around him still a very very good play at 62. My first love was dalvin cook I want to talk about him quickly because I do love jt and I love seiquan But I'm willing to settle for dow if need be because the cowboys ranked 20th against the rush Uh, you include a prior and also in my 2022 only model. They're also 20th 84 snap rate for dow in three of the past four games 140 yards twice in that time It's a great game to stack. I love uh tight spreads for running backs because it means they'll be involved in the Passing game for all four quarters. So I do love dow but this week I would say there are five running backs. I Like ish to love between dowse seiquan jt chimera and montgomery Let's go to wide receiver. What was uh tickling your fancy there Almond ross st. Brown at 78. He's gonna fuel over salary, but he's not he has not scored since the second game The giants are like decent in product. They're 18th in yards per game allowed passing but they're like within 15 yards of being a top 10 defense, which is just a reminder like why ranks you're fine, but They can be very skewy Also yards per game not a great metric and they're 24th and adjusted past defense based on number fires metrics um, but they they do allow a lot of uh Like a high rate of targets per route the highest uh, two receivers of any team. They faced 19 end zone targets by receivers this year Second most but have let up just four catches 21 percent. The gauge is like 35 percent What i'm getting at your giants What the giants have done that? That's crazy. So that's gotta be variance. That's not a talent. Yeah. Yeah, I was like So what i'm getting at uh, uh, that's a cool stat. I I want to give you credit for whipping up a cool stat. That was cool. Um St. Brown's gonna score just mark that down You can stack them and say kwan. It'll be a little bit tough, but you can do it um, and pro football focus actually has the giants 31st in coverage grade So again, they're like 18th and passing yards per game, but that's just a bad stat. So Uh, second love de monte smith you can talk more about him in detail But it's a bit of a past funnel indoors Just one of the best areas projections in my model And a lot of red zone work opening up as well without dallas goddard. My third love is is michael gallop. Um Again, I think there's underlying data implying a breakout soon in three games with press scott catch rate under expectation of eight points 28 yards per game but 52 yards per game, which is still not Amazing in terms of the average per game number, but getting downfield work With 2.3 per game 10.4 yard a dot and again minnesota not great at defending or limiting the deep ball um I don't know if i'll quite get here and head to head lineups, but I will be there in dax That's he's gonna be easy to overlook and just be like i'm gonna play You know lamb and shoalts, but I think gallop is deserving of uh, some attention What's the dax distribution for you 10 dax lineups? Uh, what are you doing with them? probably like four lamb four shoalts to gallop. Okay. I think I have I like lamb more than that, but realistically, I think I so I'd probably go seven lamb and three Seven lamb with a three or four of those being with that with shoals as well I don't double stack with receivers on fan duel because they compete a lot but tight end You typically just want your tight end correlated to something in your lineup and when it's shoalts I'm okay. So like I would go dax lamb shoalts for three out of the 10 dax and lamb solo for four dax and shoalts Uh solo for one then dax and gallop for two with one of those having shoals Love it Make that up on the plot You could have added up to like 70 lineups and I would not have comprehended No, this is it. It was 10. I'm just saying I'm visualizing my head. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but please don't Um lamb is my top love. He has a 30 target here since that dax came back 64 deep 21 the red zone the vikings Don't really have the dudes to keep up with cd lamb. So it's point chasing, but I also don't care My second love is also divante smith as you mentioned 24 target share while playing with goddard and now Open up more targets there. As you said opens up red zone usage He can get yardage and touchdowns the question is always a receiver Can you get me 85 yards or two touchdowns? He could do both So I love divante smith My third love is garret wilson the wind speeds are higher than you'd like But in the two games of no, kory davis 115 and 92 yards receiving the 115 was against new england 6200 is is a little high. Uh, but I just kind of hate every Lower salaried wide receiver. I will use london. I will use mooney Might use kurtis amuel might use devon duvernay But like I'd rather just use garret wilson if I can get there. So I I'll use gallop. You've talked me into him enough I'm not going to go with a heavy Exposure because I can't stomach that might use some quest walkins too, but um Wilson is someone I'd rather go to tight end what you got there All right, we go again. Kyle pits me too 55 by far the best model in or value in my model Best matchup possible as well for this week You know, Chicago is decent against tight ends, but not good enough for it to matter And if you go back and look at who they played They basically haven't really faced any legitimate tight ends. So I think that's relevant So 55 I'll plug him in. I also love pat friarmuth at 54 If I'm not going thought in Schultz then friarmuth is deserving of attention Last week the sealers just fixated on three guys Patty was one of them seven targets 36 yards Results weren't there, but I went for 75 yards on 10 targets against this team and we've won Since then you let up 89 yards and a touchdown to mark andrews. I'm not comparing the two necessarily But like once again going back and looking who they played. I haven't really faced anyone I think that's relevant that they got kind of torched by the two guys who are elevated tight ends um I want to pull up something quick. Okay. Can I sort? This sort. I don't know what you're looking at bud. I'm in the back end of number fire and I want to pull up Targets here we go. Okay. That's what so Top target projections for tight end in week 11 Travis Kelsey is one not in the main slate two is Andrews three is pits and That's Accounting for how run heavy the team is so we I have not had pits in my love section very often this year I do this week the sour is low enough I think the sentiment the stink is bad enough people aren't going to use him if he's going to be popular I can't use Kyle pits ever, but I don't think he will be this week. So I do like pits um I'm just defense better against the rush in the past too, which might encourage a couple more throws like Maybe 12 pass attempts instead of 10 So I'm going to use pits this week. My other love is dulls and Schultz 21 target shares since dad came back 36% inside the red zone. He said 49 74 and 54 yards. So a path the yardage upside for 59 I like that I do I don't mind dulls itch, but I I just like pits and Schultz We'll see how that goes defense. What are you doing there? I have Washington at 4,000 Frankly, uh, Davis Mills is not good Um, they're only 15th and adjusted past defense, but a really good rush defense and I think at this point in the year like Targeting teams that need win like Washington showed a lot winning that game against the Eagles They're five and five now like I think they'll make some stuff happen at 4,000 this week I think that they're very in play for the Davis Mills sucks reason Um, I think we can agree on that. My love is actually the team that ranks first in my 2022 only model for defense. It's the Denver Broncos Um, the stink does not apply to their defense. Just the offense their favorite here against uh, Vegas and Derek Carr typically is not a quarterback We target opposing defenses because he's very good at avoiding big mistakes and that's still in play here for sure But the Raiders have lost some key pieces with no Darren Waller. No Hunter Renfrow Um, this defense is just very good basing a bad offensive line There's no Bradley Chubb. Obviously and that matters for Denver, but I still think at 39 it's really hard to say no to them So I am okay with doing that if we get The Buffalo game in Buffalo I would consider the Browns defense 3000 just because the bills are are not a good rush um Offense and Josh Allen's made some mistakes. There's wind. We see A lot of wind increases for defenses and perfect lineups on fan duel So I would I would go there too. I thought about the Vegas defense, but couldn't talk myself into it because they they bad Sort of the Browns, but whatever. What about Atlanta? Yeah, I'll use them 34. I'll use them at times But the problem is I'll have Monty in most lineups. So, uh, but I'll use them at times when I don't Okay, any final thoughts for you before we close up for week 11 There's a long one, but I think you know a lot of a lot of injuries and a lot of Complicated slate. Yeah, it's it's a strange one, but I think we covered everything. I do think there are spots where like You might see things differently Uh than we do you might like since like since pivoting the Cincinnati is going to be like The easiest pivot of all time if you want to go that route. I'm not saying it's like a slam dunk move But yeah, it could happen. You know, there are going to be spots where a lot of people were overlooking And I think you could take advantage if you want to go that route Check the weather on sunday account for it. Uh, don't over account for it but account for it and try to make the balance of that which is tough for sure But I think that's the proper way to play things for sure That's all that we have here for today But as mentioned, we are back once again next week with three podcasts monday recap tuesday thanksgiving Wednesday full slate get that by subscribing to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts I'll tweet out the schedule so you can watch on youtube if you want to watch there Because we are live on youtube for all those so I'll tweet out the schedule monday once I figure out the order of things I don't know yet. We'll figure it out then. So just check twitter At jim sana's brand and where people find you on twitter for your abundant tweets Yeah, so many tweets at codle 13 gd ula 13 Alrighty, you want to thank you all for tuning in and good luck to you and week number 11 We'll talk to you once again next week for thanksgiving gonna be a lot of fun This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire