 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The goal of today's show is to have a little bit of something for everyone between Baseball NFL and some NASCAR at the end, which is probably just for me We've got to feel the dreams game for tonight in baseball cubs versus Reds being played in diaries of Iowa That was fun last year. We'll talk about that my model says about that game and more I'm gonna break down my favorite NFL week one bets here We have not had that on the show yet because we've been in a daily format for just a couple of days now And a chance to look at those week one lines regular season lines We talked about preseason stuff with Joe Straussky on yesterday's show He wants some thoughts on that check that one out, but then we'll wrap up with some NASCAR bets for Richmond I am High on a couple drivers in the cup series and the high on two drivers in the truck series as well We'll talk about what my numbers like if you don't want to hear NASCAR I'll shove it at the end so no worries there welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fired com for what should be a pretty fun show For today we'll start things off with the field of dreams game in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you subscribe to covering the spread I mentioned we had Joe Straussky on to break down NFL week number one again We are here regular season or a preseason week number one We're here every weekday Breaking down some bets that our numbers like trying to get you more betting content and info to help you fill out some good bed Slips as always giddy each of these podcasts by subscribing to the covering the spread podcast each tomorrow JJ Zacharyson will be on to break down his favorite player props season-long player props We'll talk to him about that building up projections and much more JJ's had a lot of success when we've had him on here the past couple of years as Well NFL week one odds are out now and now's the time to try Fandall sportsbook if you haven't already Get in on the action early this season help you get started new Fandall sportsbook customers Can get a no sweat first bet up to one a thousand dollars Think your favorite team is making the playoffs. 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JJ can answer that tomorrow Odds for that and more are available on the Fandall sportsbook app Just sign up place your first bet and Fandall will give you up to one thousand dollars back and freebats if you don't win There is no better place to get ready for the football season than on Fandall sportsbook America's number one sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states First online real money wager only refund issued is non withdrawal with freebats that expire 14 days after a seat Restrictions apply so you terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step or Texan acceptify 3-3-4-2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Louisiana 1-777-770 stop in New York 1-777-8 hope and wire text open Y In Tennessee call the red line at 1-888-9779 in Wyoming 1-805-224-700 or in West, Virginia 1-800 gambler dot net let's talk about this field of dreams game coming tonight between the Cubs and the Red Second-ever game they've done out in Dyersville, Iowa. I grew up in Minnesota It's not an hour north of the Iowa border and went to Dyersville They have like this like huge like die cast car store in Dyersville, so I love that place That was a lot of fun and then got to see field of dreams too It's actually pretty fun better than it you may think just for a baseball field in a cornfield This one Cubs versus Reds and remember last year. It was a home run Derby It was the White Sox versus the Yankees Final score there was nine eight and I believe there were eight total home runs hit. It was absurd the way things went So obviously it was an offensive slash Homer friendly environment It was 82 degrees there tonight's temperature 76 degrees with 70% humidity So it's a little bit worse than it was last year terms of offense It's not a super deep park. So I think that's probably why we saw the home runs last year It's probably fair to expect a pretty Offensive friendly environment to get the total for this game is at nine right now with minus 106 on the over I took over eight and a half last night I wasn't banging the table for it like it wasn't they oh, yeah, I got to get this one in it was okay I was fine with it now that it's nine I'm probably okay standing Pat where it's currently at but there is a case of the over here if you think that the Dingerfest we saw last year translates to this year as well The one that my numbers do like for this game is the Cubs money line because money line minus 102 The Reds are minus 116 my model has the Cubs at 53 percent to win this game I'm treating home field is pretty much neutral for tonight because the Reds do get the bottom of the night And that does matter for sure But the Cubs a bit less travel coming from Chicago to Iowa. So I'm treating home field is Effectively nothing. I've got the Cubs win odds at 53 percent versus 50.5 percent implied That's a big enough edge for me to bet and I don't mind doing so because Drew Smiley is Flyball pitcher could be a concern with all the home runs we saw last year, but he's done a much better job recently I was suppressing hard contact this Cubs offense not bad against lefties that may help a tiny bit here, too So if I'm looking for one bet in this game My favorite one would be the Cubs money line at minus 102 over at fangirls sportsbook I'm doing the strikeout department is being pretty efficient here Drew Smiley is at four and a half with minus 146 in the over Nick Lidolo six and a half with minus 1552 on the over I have Lidolo projected for seven flat strikeouts But his over odds there are not close to 60% so can't get towards the over there I smiley at 4.08 so his under odds are 59% and that means there's value with under four and a half being plus 116 so I could bet Smiley under four and a half, but I Haven't yet, and I don't think I will It's based on a small sample because he hasn't pitched a lot this year as miss a lot as he came back where he changes approach Longer term Smiley has been more of a strikeout guy than he has been recently So although I'm showing value here. It's a pass from me personally on the smiley under and I can't get to Lidolo Over six and a half either Fandal as of right now as of this recording on Thursday morning does not have just plain home run odds They have to hit two plus home runs. They've got home run money line Parley. I'm not seeing anything there personally But if they do go up later one guy check into his say a Suzuki He is five to one at Caesars plus four seventy five at draft Kings I don't think you'll get him plus six hundred elsewhere But like let's say you open to Fandal five to one I'm probably gonna give that a lot of consideration. I've been thinking about it five to one At Caesars with Fandal not open yet. So shop around. I'm not expecting It to get longer than five to one But even a five to one I think it's pretty fair a lot of fly balls against lefties again a dinger-friendly environment Lidolo does let up fly balls. So of the guys here Suzuki is my favorite Patrick wisdom also a big fly ball guy versus lefties But he strikes out a lot and with the number of strikeouts Lidolo gets I think that is actually a big consideration So say a Suzuki is the guy I would look to there I think overall though again the best bet I like for tonight is the Cubs money line and minus one or two I think that's the best one here And then Suzuki at five to one to go deep the second one I consider depending if you can get that one wherever your available books are but overall should be a fun game for Tonight with the Field of Dreams game out in Iowa. Okay. Let's talk NFL week one regular season because We're about to get preseason games Which means we're probably gonna start to see some lines shift not just based on injuries, but also because Some teams will play well or some players will play well during the preseason that could shift their odds for week one So I think this week is probably your final time to get if you want to buy low on a team before Numbers move even more. This is the second inflection point coming up here So I'd like to get in on the Couple week one bets I talked with Joe Strausky about preseason again If you want to find that search that on the covering the spread podcast feed But for week one regular season, I have two spreads showing up as being pretty good for week one Those are the Giants plus six and a half and the Texans plus eight and those lines are a fan duel You can't get the Texans plus eight and a half in some other spots Let's start here the Giants facing the Titans This is more about the Titans than it is about the Giants They lost AJ Brown the offseason Traylon Burks not getting a ton of run with the first team offense training camp And there's no Julio Jones, which means it's Ryan Tannehill with a group of non-elite pass catchers Tannehill has been fine with AJ Brown But is he a guy who can support an offense that doesn't have good past catches around him So that doesn't seem great and plus the Giants are volatile, but in a good way I would say they got a new coaching staff. They've had improvements along the offensive line via the draft. I don't mind buying into them here. So The Giants plus six and a half I think it's actually a pretty good bet and the best number you can't get is a fan duel So I do like that one. I like the Giants here. I'm going to bet that versus the Titans in week number one The Texans may be a tougher sell. I'm a bit more skeptical. I did bet it So I'm willing to do it But you know took me more time to talk myself into this one than the Giants one They're facing the Colts here and that's why my hesitation is present because I don't know if my model is properly valuing this Colts offense I've got them projected to rank 11th in offensive efficiency this year, which is pretty high But with the way people talk about Matt Ryan and you know dismiss Carson Wentz It's possible that I'm too low because it's possible that Wentz Made the supporting cast in Indy look worse than it actually was because I don't think that supporting cast is like Phenomenal right now. It's like good. It's fine, but it's not the mostly past catchers Not the best offensive line anymore. They've got some good guys still but like it's not a lead top to bottom So I'm skeptical of the supporting cast and Ryan look kind of cooked at times last year like he wasn't bad He's still super super smart. That's valuable, but like wasn't Chucking it deep as well as he used to in the past It sounds like Shaquille Leonard used to be Darius Leonard, but Shaquille Leonard now He's probably gonna miss week one the Texans on the other hand of a lot of continuity on offense They've got pet Hamilton. He was I believe quarterbacks coached last year. He's back as the OC Past catchers are the same day. This mills is back for the full off season. I Prefer the Giants plus six and a half between these two bets, but the Texans plus eight I don't mind it again. You can get it eight and a half. So please do so but I think that if we're looking at week one Those are the two numbers that stand out most to me. I'm not sure if the Texans one will move I think it's more likely that the Giants one moves because we could see the Colts come out of the preseason look good That would probably increase some enthusiasm there. So I think the ones I'm more likely to lock in It's the Giants or have I've locked in both these but like the one I think it's a bigger priority to bet would be the Giants, but overall, I Think it's good to bet both these my number show value I believe in my number so I will have those for week number one We'll talk more about week number one as we get closer to break down some Some other stuff may pop up try and talk myself into a couple more money lines But we'll see how things shake out in the coming weeks and again We'll talk about more NFL with JJ Zacharyson on tomorrow's show. Okay Let's talk about some NASCAR Richmond again If you don't want to listen to NASCAR totally get it feel free to dip out We'll talk to you tomorrow talk about some player props, but we have NASCAR Richmond and as mentioned I'm gonna talk about this each week until NFL starts I'll be sure to dump it at the back end of the podcast so you can dip out if you want, but I like NASCAR It's my best sport for betting. So why would I not discuss it on a betting focused podcast this week? The Cup series and the truck series are Richmond in cup. I'm on the Ford's in trucks. I am on the vets I think that is a Path I am okay with for sure in the Cup series the guys my numbers like most are Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick I like Lugano's outright and top 10 odds. He's 15 to 1 to win a faddle minus 135 to finish top 10 I want both those Lugano ranks third in aggregate average running position on the short flat tracks this year four-way sample He ranks third behind just Chase Elliott and William Byron That does not include the wins that Lugano got a gateway in Darlington But gateway is flat similar to Richmond Darlington features massive tire fall off like Richmond So I have both those races in my model. It helps Lugano some but His track history is also good He's had a top five average running position in five of the past eight Richmond races and that spans four different rules packages, so 2018 was one 2019 was one 2020 and 2021 were one of them this year as well Lugano does have two career wins here. I like him a lot and I bet him in both markets I think that he is a a great value bet for this week. My model tends to be far too high on Lugano, but I've been talking to Nick Giffin Roto doc on Twitter. His model also viewed Lugano as being Better than market. I think he had him as fair value of plus 1732 if I recall correctly So not 15 to 1 but I do like my model if you average with 2 out I think you would still show value there too So Lugano my favorite bet for this week Harvick is 16 to 1 not as big of a values Lugano But he nearly won this race back in the spring. He was awesome in Phoenix He had a fifth place average running position in New Hampshire Harvick has run well on this track type all year long I've got Harvick at 8.2 percent to win this race. His implied odds are 5.9 percent, which is a pretty big gap And usually that'd be the biggest gap But I actually have a bigger gap on Lugano for this week because again that model's too high in him But hey, whatever Harvick's top 10 odds of Fandall are minus 170. I have him Literally almost dead even it's like 62.9 percent versus 62.7 or something But like he's dead even there if you can find Harvick at minus 150 or shorter I would or a longer I should say I would take that Minus 150 be 60 percent implied odds at 63 ish percent. I would take that so if you can get it minus 150 I would take it but if it's just minus 170 I'd probably pass and just go with the outright on Harvick there I would also check available books to see if they're offering manufacturer props I have forwarded 33.3 percent to win if you read my betting guide Yesterday on number fire, you'll note that number is now higher But that's because Kurt Busch withdrew that bump forward up even a bit more. That's probably too high 33.3 percent, but At Caesar's you can bet them a plus 430 to win. That's a lot of margin for error So if you have that even a short of three to one I would take that the forwards have not been good recently outside of Harvick's win in Michigan, but at this track type and Similar track types. They have been very good So I do like the forwards overall to outperform our expectations and they get the best way for me to phrase that As of the truck series, it's similar to what I had for IRP We didn't have them on this podcast obviously, but did talk about it on Twitter It's a lot of the the older guys now Ben Rhodes not old these 24 25 But he's a veteran for the truck series. I would say the champion last year I like Rhodes and Grant Enfinger both 12 to 1 to win this race that those odds of fangirl sports But I actually bet both in the 10 to 1 earlier in the week before fangirl was open. So Oops my bad, but Makes me feel better about 12 to 1 for sure if you're betting it now Enfinger one IRP I was on him at 20 to 1 there. It's a very similar track to Richmond It's a short flat track with heavy tire fall off and Richmond checks all those boxes too Enfinger did win here back in 2020 My model doesn't care about that because it happened in a different team So that's actually like effectively nullified from my model. It knows that he has good track history But does downgrade that due to the different equipment Rhodes is the bigger value between the two guys for me He has struggled recently even at IRP which is concerning to me given how similar these tracks are But he was a threat to win here in 2020 and 2021 He tends to run well at phoenix. There's another short flat track Rhodes a good dirt racer and I actually do care about that because the dirt tracks in NASCAR Tend to run very similar to a track with heavy tire fall off because it won't just slick So I actually do care about good dirt racing For this race I have roads at 11.8 to win. Enfinger is 10.2 percent Both those are above their implied marks of 7.7 percent. That's a pretty big gap again So I'm pretty far off market on Harvick Logano roads and Enfinger, which is always scary But there's a lot of room for error my model to be off and still be above market on those guys I am also showing some value in steward freason He is 7.8 percent from me versus 6.3 percent implied But not as high as Rhodes and Enfinger freason another good road or a good dirt racer Doesn't have the same history at this track as those two guys do and I do care about track history a bit more richman than other places So that's why despite showing value. I'm not there, but I will take Enfinger and Rhodes both at 12 to 1 at Fandals sportsbook. So again richman's or NASCAR my best sport my favorite sport to bet on as well So we'll we'll talk about that probably each thursday at least until NFL gets rolling, but Do you want to at least get that out there on the shows when we can? That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread so a fun night for tonight between field of dreams some NFL pre-season games and Getting into more mlb tomorrow and talking about the NFL JJ Zachary's and to get that podcast of JJ or to check out What joe Strausky said about NFL pre-season games search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well If you've got any questions for me, I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcasts big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your field of dream beds Enjoy the game We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to talk about some season long player props with JJ Zachary's This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network