 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a big match coming up this weekend in the English Premier League It is Liverpool versus Manchester United of course. I know why that's a big one But to further explain it we're gonna talk to Austin Cass later on today to get his read on that match on Sunday But also the full EPL slate on Saturday to get you some good bets over at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here as mentioned by Austin Cass check him out on Twitter at Austin Cass You can find his EPL work and other stuff over at number fire calm Austin. Happy Friday to you. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. How are you doing Jim? I'm doing great. I we I got up early this morning to watch The first free practice of the formula one season this morning I'm gonna talk about the data behind that later on today Fp2 currently going on so I'll talk about some weird stuff to note with Fp1 Later on if you want some more F1 talk after we talked about a bit on Thursday show Make sure you check or stick around at the end. We'll talk about that but Austin I've been doing my soccer research by throwing Twitter and seeing Jurgen Klopp's face Talking about, you know stuff with Liverpool versus Man United seems like he's a salty kind of guy Am I getting the proper impression? Am I now an EPL expert? How does this all work? I wouldn't say eggs were quite yet, but yeah, he's a funny character and he Yeah, I can come off a little whiny in the press sometimes but we're gonna talk about his team today Okay, you will not know what this reference is but he sounds like a Christian Horner Christian Horner the team principal of Red Bull Formula one. I'm just gonna go ahead and make that assumption now knowing nothing about Jurgen Klopp other than memes So we're gonna make that that association right now We'll talk about what things that actually matter with him and talk about that match talk about Saturday and more in just one second The first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts big A couple of weeks for the show here coming up because we've got men's college basketball conference tournaments next week We've got the NCAA tournament will help fill out your brackets later on And a lot of good stuff with betting on the NCAA tournament later on as well That'll all be right here in the covering the spread podcast feed and over on the Fando YouTube page So wherever you want to watch it make sure you're subscribed watch more listen and while you're there if you like Which are here leave us a rating and review as well The midway point of the NBA season is here and now is the perfect time to download Fandall America's number one sportsbook because new customers getting no sweat first bet up to one a thousand dollars That's bonus bets back if your first bet doesn't win just download the Fandall sportsbook app It is safe secure and super easy to use Then you can bet on everything from the money line to point scores and three strain plus Fandall even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with the same game parlay So don't miss a chance to get your no sweat first bet up to one thousand dollars bonus bets Make every moment more a Fandall an official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states first Online a real money wager only ten dollar deposit required refund issued is not with reliable bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see full terms at fandall.com sportsbook gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Or is it fandall.com slash rg in Arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or busy cc pg.org slash chat in Indiana 1809 with it and Kansas in Wyoming 1805 2 2 4700 in Kansas KS gambling health calm Louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Maryland MD gambling help org in New York 1 8 7 7 8 hopin wire text hopin y and in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Now let's start things off your Austin by talking about that Sunday match we're talking about before we've got Liverpool versus Manchester United that is going on on Sunday when you look at that match Austin what stands out to you any bets you like in that one specifically? Yeah, I think it's a really fascinating match and I'm gonna be taking Liverpool at their plus 135 money line price The general vibe around these two clubs this year can be much different United or on the rise under a new manager They picked up a trophy last weekend in the caribou cup And Liverpool who were a preseason favorite or one of the preseason favorites to win the league have been just really out of sorts all Season struggled with injuries haven't played well when they've been healthy And they're they're in a real fight just to get in the top four to make the Champions League for next season And then when these teams met earlier this year United beat them two to one But there's a reason Liverpool are slight favorites, even though it might not make sense when you first glance at it Despite those season-long narratives for these two rivals. It's Liverpool who have the slight edge and expected goal differential And as I've gotten healthier here in recent weeks They started to look a little bit like the team everybody thought they would be especially going forward They've amassed at least 1.8 expected goals in four of their previous five Premier League matches and they've won the XG battle in five straight games in all competitions So in short once you kind of pop the XG hood of Liverpool haven't been as bad as a result to indicate and Manchester United haven't quite been as good as what it may seem like they've been and Then this game being at Anfield. It's a pretty big factor as well Liverpool have the second best home goal differential in the league at plus 18 While United are minus three goal differential on the road. So all in all I'm taking Liverpool at plus 135 And that is for the baseline money line over at Fandall Sportsburg plus 135 for Liverpool to win this match I want to dig into the health of Liverpool which he talked about Obviously when a team is healthier now than they were before The full season data on them may not be as relevant as it would be for a team that's had Relative, you know, normalcy across the entire span when you have a team like Liverpool that's gotten healthier How much are you valuing the more recent data versus the full season data? Given that the more recent data is likely to be I would say more relevant But also I feel like the the the helper here is it seems like when you're using Stats like expected goals. It's okay to delve into a smaller sample because XG will probably stabilize more quickly. Am I correct in that assumption? Yeah, for sure. You make a lot of good points and that's a good question. I think Liverpool's just like a really interesting case because Anybody would have had them on a short list of best teams in Europe coming into the year and it's just really been a total Disaster a season for them like just from the get-go but I'm definitely weighing their recent results more heavily and I'm even willing to go back into last year a little bit to see what they've done when they More resemble the team they currently have right now But that's obviously a slippery slope and things change a lot and there's a lot of variables But yeah to answer your question. I'm really weighing what I've seen from them the last five or so games when they've gotten Diogo Jota back and Darwin Nunez is healthy and really just starting to look like all that everybody thought they would be So Manchester United is kind of the one team that's still alive in the futures market beyond Arsenal and Man City They're 14 to 1 to win it all and that's you know, they're behind so there's a reason for that how skeptical are you of that ranking is Like when we're stacking teams here, they're currently, you know top three How far beyond behind the top three are they in actuality when you look at Expected goals advanced metrics and stuff like that There's there's a pretty big gap between Man City Arsenal and then United City and Arsenal have been the top two teams pretty much all year The numbers bear that out And United are probably a little bit fortunate to be in third place in the position they're in where they Are really gonna have to let things slip away here to not make the top four and get into the Champions League for next year, but You know at the end of the day the results are all that matter like what happens on the pitch as far as you know They these points are in the bank. They've had a very successful season So United fans will not be complaining at all right, but when you're projecting what they might do going forward They're probably due to step back a little bit and I would be Borderline stunned if there's four or five games left and they're actually in the title race, so yeah It's fair to give them the respect for what they've done so far, but we're trying to project going forward And that's a very different task. Okay, so Austin likes Liverpool plus 135 to win that match on a Sunday We got six games though on Saturday It looks like there's one other on Sunday as well when you look at those other games the non Liverpool versus Manchester United matches Austin. Where are you seeing value right now at Fandle Sportsbook? I've got my eye on the Leicester City Southampton match particularly Southampton's money line, which is plus 175 And I'm also interested and then at plus 100 in the Thai no bet market So you can make a decent case based on narratives and how important this game is for Southampton And I'll do that in a second But there's a data-back case for the Saints to buy expected goal differentials Southampton have been a better team Than Leicester by a decent margin Despite being last in the table on points Southampton's 13th by expect a goal differential At minus 8.8 in Leicester's 17th at minus 11.5 and this match is that Southampton Which is obviously another feather in their cap As for the narrative this match is just crazy important for Southampton They're currently three points to drift at the bottom of the table and four points from safety So if they're going to get out of the bottom three and survive this season They really need to win these home matches against the other sides near the bottom of the table This is one of those winnable games for them They desperately need to get at least a point like at a minimum they need to get a draw which is what interests me in the Thai no bet market because If if they have a 1-0 lead late or things are tied late Southampton will be doing Everything in their power to hold on to that tie or to that lead so Obviously teams always play hard, but this is just a dynamic they have In soccer over there that we don't have in sports here, you know sometimes it's actually the opposite with teams are trying to lose when they're at the bottom, but Southampton will be doing everything Just humanly possible to try to get at least a draw tomorrow I Want to ask you your general philosophy around handling the regular money line market versus the Thai no bet market obviously here There is a Narrative reason for looking at the Thai no bet mark But I think the other thing to keep in mind is that you typically get a lower hold in that market as well So right now Southampton is even money Lester is minus 1 16 So the hold in that market is 3.7 percent Whereas the hold in the market with a tie as odds just got taken down for some reason but before they got taken down the hold in the Market where you could bet on a tie was five point one two percent So by taking the Thai no bet market you're actually betting into a lower hold market in my Conspiracy theory it might not be a conspiracy theory, but the thought process there is a lot of people don't want to bet ties So they can jack up The hold in those markets, but as people will try to take better than those instead that I just came back up And they're the exact same so no serious concerns there, but I think that that's kind of To me as someone who likes to bet into lower hold markets That's why I would find the Thai no bet market a bit more attractive and even money Even though you're not getting as good of a number I think the the presence of a tie and the fact that like you said a draw matters a lot to them Like that's a very valuable thing. I think both those Align to make the Thai no bet market for me the much preferred spot in this one Yeah, I agree for sure even without the narrative. I'm kind of a sucker for the Thai no bet market just because Right in the past. I've been burnt many times Really likes their scars and stick with you of a team Yeah, really playing great and then the other team scores a goal at the end and ties it and it's Your money line bets gone. So yeah, I'm kind of a sucker for the Thai no bet market for a lot of the reasons you just listed and I think it You know, the narrative really pushes me over the edge for this one with how hard right Southampton will be clinging to any result that they have Yes, that market right now is even money against Southampton in the Thai no bet market at even money If you want to go the other route with the the money line with the Thai included You can go plus 175 on Southampton there as well What about player props awesome when you get the board in terms of those for Saturday and for Sunday, what do you see in there? So in the Chelsea leads match I really like It should be it's one of the first Saturday. Sorry. I really like Kai Havertz to score or assist, which is plus 105 As we talked about last week Chelsea or due for positive regression it did not happen in this first match that we talked about But they've now scored just three goals from 11.7 XG over the last eight matches, which is a really staggering difference In a way matches leads of loud the fourth most goals in the Premier League And I think Saturday is finally the day that Chelsea is going to get right Really like the idea of getting their striker to score or assist that plus money And of course, this is assuming that Havertz starts at strikers. So With how much they've been struggling and he hasn't really been producing it's not a given that he's gonna start So I'm gonna wait until lineups come out at 9 a.m. Eastern time before placing this bet But if he's starting that striker for them, I really like him at plus 105 to score or assist so in the NBA and other markets will see market shift significantly once a Lineup comes out and we know okay player acts starting etc. Etc with EPL How willing are you to bet player props before those lineups come out because hey you you might get a better number But be there is that risk that player may not start. So what's your risk tolerance there? How much do the markets move once lineups are announced and stuff like that if people are trying to you know Dive into the stuff for the first time and don't know the intricacy of that Yeah, that's that's a really great point. So I'm usually pretty hesitant with player props Unless it's a really big game where a team's almost for sure gonna put out their best lineup and so you Can feel very confident in a guy starting but typically that's gonna be reflected in the number anyway. Yeah, but Yeah, with this one If he's in the starting lineup, we could see it jump to like even money or maybe even minus 105 So there's some value in taking him now But you could also get burnt because if he's not starting and he doesn't come on at all The bet will be voided. But if he doesn't start he's a good enough player that will probably come on as a sub Right, then you're banking on him to score a goal in probably like 20 minutes or something. So Yeah, but a lot of times just like with sports here Unless a lineup comes out and it's just really shocking the team sitting a bunch of guys, right the lines aren't gonna move that much and You know those those osmakers have a way of finding out that information before us So they can just by looking at the lines you can come sometimes predict what's about to come sure. Yeah, I Felt the wrong way on that last night Thought that oh six or six and a half point favorites Tyrus Halberton's playing had to scramble I was at the mall at the last second to get him out of my lineup So I tried to do that last night not successfully and that's why they're better at this than I am But hopefully things go well That's Kai Havertz to score or assist plus one of five in the Chelsea versus leads match That is Austin Cass make sure you check him out on Twitter at Austin Cass find his work over at number fire com Got an EPL helper. I'll be up later on today to break down Saturday Slate Austin Good luck to you this weekend. Have fun watching the matches and we'll talk to you again next week To do soccer, but then we'll have some college basketball just around the corner as well Sounds good. Thank you Jim. Alrighty. Thank you. Austin again He is on Twitter at Austin Cass and excited of Austin to talk some college basketball later on because again not my forte So we're gonna lean on others to educate us in those departments where I do not have any expertise now Let's talk about formula one because they just had free practice number one this morning I'm recording this during free practice number two So I'm not gonna analyze the actual data from free practice one because it'll be outdated old bad By the time you actually consume this one thing. I want to touch on though was An important thing to safeguard yourself against If you are just getting into F1 for the first time and checking out practice data is make sure you're accounting for certain things primarily tire compounds because Let's use FP one this morning as an example in Bahrain In FP one you had the two Red Bulls very fast Perez one Verstappen three with Fernando Alonso between the two of them. They were crazy fast well above everybody else in the field The problem with that is that neither Ferrari driver had their fastest lap come on the soft tire compound They were on the mediums same thing from Mercedes same thing for Alpine So you look at the top four teams in the constructor savings last year Three of them did not run a lap on the soft tire compounds So the soft tire compounds if you're not aware they don't last as long But they're much faster on a single lap So if you're gonna put out your best lap and try to churn that best lap out You're gonna do it on the soft tires Ideally on lower fuel loads and stuff like that as well. We didn't see that in FP one for a lot of teams So for Charles Leclerc, Charles Lecler, Louis Hamilton, George Russell, Estevan O'Con, Nick DeVries, Pierre Gasse Lee, Alexander Alvin, Carlos Sainz all had their fastest lap on mediums Logan Sargent was on the hards and I think that if you're trying to model this out to try to Analyze practice data, I would say that's probably one of the most important things you need to be aware of is Different tire compounds the softest tires will be fastest almost every single time medium tires up to that hard and If a lot of teams ran softs in one practice and another team did not make sure you account for that So what I do is I adjust I will make an adjustment in there for the teams that are fastest lap on the median compounds and just kind of you know trim their lap times based on the gap the gap of that week Between the softs and the mediums or it'll change every every racetrack because Sometimes the soft tires are much better. Sometimes they're better, but not as big of a difference. So You can find that data Just by if you watch they will show the tire compound on the running order that will show you okay This is the tire they were using when it's at their fastest lap GP fans is a website that after practice lists out the practice data and it'll tell you on which tire Compound the driver set that fastest lap. So once I make those adjustments and free practice one Honestly, it wasn't there weren't a ton of huge surprises based on the data I think that Alonso's time was still very good even after adjusting for the fact that he did on sauce The Red Bulls were still extremely fast. So I'm not saying disregard what they did. I'm saying don't Don't undercount Mercedes Ferrari and stuff like that now peen as well just because they never ran the soft So didn't talk about that yesterday probably should have but we'll talk about it now Something to be very aware of when it comes to practice data to make sure you are not Penalizing teams for not pushing to put out the fastest single lap they possibly could FB2 will probably different I'm guessing teams making Qualifying runs because it's more similar conditions now than it will be or to qualify tomorrow then free practice one was So keep that in mind something to be aware of for every formula one practice Make sure you're kind of for tire compounds and stuff like that It doesn't matter a lot and not doing so will likely lead you down some very poor paths again Hopefully this doesn't age super poorly based on fp2 We'll see I'm gonna go watch that right now to see what I can learn from that for sunday's race That is all that we have fear for today and this week on covering the spread But we are back once again next week with NBA NHL PGA talk some NASCAR We'll talk some EPL. We'll have it all covered here in this same place So go make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast to get these right as they are posted each and every weekday big Thank you once again to Austin Cass find him on Twitter at Austin Cass You can check out his work at number fire.com. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I. M. S. A Nnes you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your bets across tonight and this weekend. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network