 Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to New America. My name is Peter Bergen. I run the international security program here. We've got a very distinguished panel to discuss kind of Afghanistan in the next year or two. Obviously, we've just had the parliamentary elections. We're going to have the presidential elections next year. We've had an insider attack that almost killed General Razik, who of course was a police commander in Kandahar. General Scotty Miller, the four-star general in charge of Afghanistan, had to pull his weapon. I think indicative of Taliban must have pretty good intelligence to have carried out this operation. So we begin with the moderator is Tresher Mubil, who's been visiting Afghanistan since 2007. She made a film about the drug trade there for National Geographic, for CNN, and then for National Geographic made a film about the Taliban, both in Afghanistan and in Pakistan in 2008, 2009. Next to her is Yanni Koskinos, who's lived in Afghanistan since 2010. First of all, as a colonel, and joint special operations command for the Air Force, working for General McChrystal. Then he set up his own company, Hoplite Group, which has been involved in mining in Afghanistan and also in security. He's doing his PhD at King's College London, about the Afghan Civil War, which of course, so much of what is going on in Afghanistan today is traceable to what happened in the mid-90s during that civil war. And finally, Hamid Aslam, who just came back from Afghanistan on Friday, who is a senior program officer at the National Endowment for Democracies. He is also a former UN official in Afghanistan. And C-SPAN is covering this. It's not live, but it'll be live to tape. So if you have a question, please make sure you wait for the mic and identify yourself so that C-SPAN viewers can understand who is asking the question. So with that, I'll turn it over to Tresha. I think they're both going to give a presentation, a short speak. They're going to give a short. Can I borrow your pen, Peter? Make sure, please. All right, thank you to the New America Foundation for hosting this timely event on Afghanistan. And also, I want to thank the audience for being here despite the rain. I would like to begin my remarks with a disclaimer that my views are my own and they're not, this is really to present the views of my employer. As Peter mentioned, I returned from Afghanistan over the weekend. I was there to observe the Afghan elections in an informal capacity. It was not a formal observation mission. I spent most of my time in Kabul and traveled to some of the provinces. But before I discuss basically the recent trip, I want to tell you guys a story and frame my remarks in a story that happened basically in the previous time in 2014 when I was also observing the Afghan elections. In 2014, as an observer, I was based in Herat in the western part of Afghanistan when I received a call. I received a call that 11 individuals on their way home after basically voting to their district in Koshkara Batsangi, their car was pulled over. And because their fingers had the ink from the elections, the Taliban had chopped off their fingers. So when I heard this story, I was like, I really need to go and meet with the victims. So I went to the hospital and meeting with most of these victims, one of them kind of struck me the most. An older gentleman in his probably late 50s in Afghanistan that's probably considered old, like with a turban, white beard, and he was smiling. And in my mind, I was like, this guy must be crazy. He just lost a finger and he's smiling. So I approached him and I talked to him and he smiled at me and he was like, son, the Taliban chopped off one of my fingers. But I have nine more to go vote nine more times. May I remind you that this gentleman may not even know what democracy is. He may be illiterate. But I think his story is the story of millions of Afghans who have embraced this new Afghanistan, this constitutional order, democracy. And with their participation and resolve, they are saying no to tyranny and terrorism that is represented by the Taliban, other terrorist groups and their regional backers alike. I think that story and that resolve was demonstrated by the Afghans in the most recent parliamentary elections. As an observer again, I have witnessed long lines of Afghans who came despite all the risks to participate in the elections. You know, there was this other individual in one of the polling centers that I was observing the elections. He could not find his name and then this new voters list. And I was in that center maybe for over an hour and I could see this man going door to door and saying that, you know, I have this sticker on the Ita Skara but my name is not here and I really, really want to vote. So despite all the risks, I think Afghans, they demonstrated, they came in millions and participated to cast, I think, their vote. You know, another incident that happened in one of the polling centers, there was a sonic bomb that went off. And it was just amazing that how most of these individuals who were waiting in line, they did not even move, they just brushed it off. And they still, I think, stowed and waited in line to exercise their constitutional right. There were of course some technical issues. There were with this new biometric system that was introduced. There were some delays in people who were trying to cast their votes. But overall, I think it made the process more transparent. The fact that there was a voter's list that was specifically designed for a polling center that helped in reducing this issue of like kind of ballot staffing in Afghanistan. But me and Yanni were talking earlier that the whole new biometric system was introduced kind of, I should say in a rush. And there were not enough time for the polling staff and others and IEC officials to receive enough trainings. So there were some long lines and in some places the polling centers had to be reopened in the next day. But overall, when you were talking with Afghans and Afghan civil society, they saw the process as a victory, especially on the parliamentary front, on the on the candidates front that there were a lot of young Afghans who nominated themselves as candidates in this process. They were employing new mechanism of campaigning, bringing their families and kids basically going door to door campaigns and around the country. So it was really, I think, remarkable on the front. The other big issue or big elephant in the country when I was there is this potential talks or peace with the Taliban. As many of you know, there has been some contacts and some meetings between US officials and the Taliban representatives in Qatar. And there are going to be probably some talks in Russia in the next few days, which recently, just yesterday, the Afghan Foreign Ministry announced that no Afghan officials would participate in an official capacity. But I think there will be some representatives from the High Peace Council that is an independent body will participate in this process. A few key things that I think I want to highlight on the peace front is that the Afghan people, they do want to have peace and they have demonstrated how forgiving they can be. You know, I lived in Afghanistan, I lived under the Taliban. And when the three day ceasefire happened in Afghanistan, I was amazed by how forgiving the Afghan people can be like. Thousands of Taliban hundreds of their members during those three days of ceasefire, they came from their fighting post to the villages to the city centers. And the Afghans, they didn't forget the atrocities that they're committing. They are literally killing them every day. It's a terrorist organization. But there was no single incident of an Afghan stabbing a Taliban member by what whatever they were doing or killing them. Instead, they were basically taking selfies with them. So the stories that really know the Afghans, they do want to have peace. But I think the peace process should not be a top down model. It should be rather a bottom up model, where all Afghans are engaged from the village level to the district level to the provincial level. The Afghan civil society, I work for the National Endowment for Democracy, we work with civil society, the civil society, the women, media groups, they have to feel that they are included basically in this process. I don't think we can achieve peace in Afghanistan behind closed doors. And when it comes, I think to the negotiation process itself, because it hasn't started yet, there are talks. And in my view that those negotiations, they have to be Afghan owned and Afghan led for the process to be long lasting. And it's an inclusive peace process. I think I'll stop there. And then I'll be happy to engage in the questions and answers. Thank you. Thank you, Amanda. Again, I'll let go your comments that in this town, there aren't that many organizations, unfortunately, that are paying as much attention on Afghanistan as they should. New America has always been very supportive of that. And I deeply appreciate it. Also C span has always been very good about supporting this. So this is, this is quite a treat to get representatives from, you know, an Afghan voice and quite frankly, someone who is obsessive about Afghanistan voice, but resides in Kabul most of the time. But, but, you know, I am a product of the Western dynamics. So I hope that what I can add to this is a lens of how we view this from here to Afghanistan and in Afghanistan rather than and I'll let Hamid, you know, handle what what the pulse is like from a from a not obviously not average Afghan but but a very informed Afghan on what's going on there. So with that in mind, let me just throw this this starting point for the discussion and then look forward to obviously treasurer's questions and the audience's questions. We just had an election on and at the end of October in Afghanistan. And it's true, there's an enormous amount of hope and courage that was represented by the Afghan people and go into the polls. Inefficiencies aside, at the last few weeks, I think this has been one of the most anticipated votes in the last five years. The parliamentary elections were two years plus late in the making. So the fact that they were held actually in as a starting point is is is quite important. And, and I think the West views that as as a milestone achieved, albeit, like I said, not not efficient or or however else we want to characterize it. The second milestone that obviously the West is paying attention to is the presidential election that's going to happen in towards the end of spring next year, which is another one of those that conditional support towards Afghanistan is very much based on achieving certain milestones. And at least that's the South Asia strategy. And one can argue what achievable is or what return on an investment rate may be represented. But but certainly on a macro scale, these two events are quite significant. And they're significant for for another reason. Tomorrow we have elections here in this country, our midterm elections, you may have, you know, whichever side you lean on, you may have different opinions about what is going to happen. And the informed opinions were not exactly 100% accurate during our presidential election. So there'll be some surprises, I'm sure. But nevertheless, there's going to be a policy reflection based on on this election, at least in Congress, you know, congressional and senatorial perspective. But the president is also, you know, up for reelection. And I know it seems like, you know, very far away, but in two years, we're going to have elections again here. And no doubt, the issue of Afghanistan, although it may be tempered in some ways with all the other things that are going on there, what happens to Afghanistan is certainly up for grabs. And I think personally, although I have no information to the that would support this, but my gut feeling is that that decision is probably coming sooner than you know, the 2020 elections, I think it's going to become a much more interesting for the president reflection post this election, and he'll have more time to spend on it. But let's not forget that President Trump, his initial gut feeling was not to support the expansion of the mission or the continuance of the mission as it is now, he was convinced to, to stay the course in Afghanistan and in some ways, reintroduce certain capabilities there and put some more attention on it. That is not guaranteed. And, and, and that we stay this way that he changes the mind once and he could possibly change his mind again, is something that we need to take stock of. So again, in the characterization of what just happened, great, important, but and what's going to happen in May is also superb, you know, supremely important. But how it's viewed here, there's a lot of skepticism, there's a lot of concern about whether or not the mission is still worth it. So we have to earn it every day. For somebody who is an absolute supporter and believes in the mission, I've committed my life to it, that Afghanistan's you know, sovereignty and, and quite frankly, the freedom that that it represents there is a beacon that we need to, you know, reinforce. But we have some work to do because I think the odds are completely stacked against us always in the context that people are looking for reasons to not stay, not necessarily looking for reasons to stay. And what I hope this discussion brings is it reinforces, or at least in my mind, and I'm sure I'm Edward would agree, there are many, many reasons why we should stay and an enormous cost if we stay out. So with that in mind, I'll pause there. And you know, look forward to your question, Shresha. And of course, the audiences. So this is a question for both of you. If you're the wife of the 39 year old mayor of Utah, who was recently killed on an insider attack. How do you tell your children why it's worth it for us to be there? Or why it was worth it for him to lose his life, defending Afghanistan? I can take that. Because look, I've served in the military, I've been around families that have lost I was literally just down at Fort Walton Beach, Florida for the for the induction of tech sardine, later master sardine, John Chapman, who basically gave his life for Robert on Roberts Ridge and in Eastern Afghanistan on the early days of the war in 2002. And I was there with a family and all the gold star families that they could muster were there. And I can tell you that they're they feel pride in the sacrifices that their their their family members made. They believe in in what they did because those individuals that went there believed what they were doing was right. And and I think that, you know, I get chills even thinking about it, because if I didn't believe that I wouldn't be there. You know, my kids, who are probably going to watch this, because they always ask me, you know, when C Span is going to cover this. So, so I, you know, to my kids that always see me leave and not be around them as they're growing up to my partner to my mom to my dad to my, you know, my the rest of my family, I mean, all of them sort of believe that what I'm doing is important. And so to that young, you know, wife with seven kids is not easy. I'm not, you know, downplaying it. But but I think that there's an entire support mechanism that believes in what that that person did and what he was going after. And, and quite frankly, I do too. And I think she does. I think that children will and and there be all of us that will continue to remind them that their dad, their dad's sacrifice wasn't for nothing. I mean, what happens if the US leaves Afghanistan? Um, let me just add to what Yanni said that I mean, my deepest console condolences at a personal level to the family of the soft fallen soldiers. But I just want to add one thing that the Afghans alongside with their American friends, they're fighting this war on terrorism and 20 plus, you know, terrorist groups basically at the front line on daily basis. There are tens of Afghans who are losing their lives, basically fighting this terrorism. But like me only said, their loss is not basically wasted in Afghanistan. I mean, if the US were to leave Afghanistan, I think Afghanistan is not going to go anywhere. You know, Afghanistan has been there for 5000 years. The Afghan people have been there all this time. But the fact is that the Afghan government, Afghan state, right now we are not in a stage to be self reliant. We are not we don't have a strong economy to be able to support our military force in the foreseeable right now, at least in the next few years. Afghanistan does have a lot of resources. As you know, we have a lot of minerals. But for for us to be able to extract those minerals to be able to pay for our army, for our police, and for our state bureaucracy, we do until then we do need basically the support from the United States and other international partners. Just recently, like couple of weeks ago here in Washington, we had a couple of mining agreements that were signed between Afghan and American companies in Afghanistan to be able to extract basically those minerals out of Afghanistan. The level of trade and the level of export in Afghanistan has increased significantly because of the air corridors that the president was able to negotiate, you know, with other countries exporting products to India, they're exporting products to Europe, to China. So basically, Afghans all trying, I mean, they know that the problems of Afghanistan's are their own problems and they have to own it. But if the US were to abandon, you know, Afghanistan, I mean, we are in a region where we are not to say it politically, we don't have so many friendly neighbors towards us. And I think there are a lot of regional actors who do not want to see a democratic and a stable Afghanistan. I think they would probably want to see Afghanistan, to treat Afghanistan kind of like a client state. And that is not something that the Afghan people want. And I think we have demonstrated that. And the bilateral security agreements that the Afghan government have signed with the United States and the strategic partnership agreement, I was telling you earlier, that when the strategic partnership agreement was signed between the United States and the Afghan government, and the Loi Jerga and the Grand Assembly that took place where more than 2000 delegates from all across Afghanistan who came to be part of that discussion. And there were so many individuals who were trying to kind of like derail those talks and tried that this partnership agreement does not take place between the US and Afghanistan. But overwhelming majority of Afghans, more than 90% of the Afghan delegates, they said yes to have a strong relationship. And this partnership agreement basically with the United States because they know what the alternative is. You know, the alternative is going to be chaos. And probably more intervention. So I do hope, you know, that all the investments that we have made in Afghanistan during the last 17 years, both in terms of blood and treasure, we'll be able to protect them. You know, I'm also a businessman, you know, from a business perspective, we have invested so much in Afghanistan. I mean, the level of troops in Afghanistan is not nearly as much as they were in 2014. You know, we have a small foothold in terms of the true presence in Afghanistan. The level of expenses have come down. And I think during the next few years, the number of troops even may come gradually lower in Afghanistan. And as the Afghans have stepped in the Afghan security forces to fill in basically the security void. So until that, they are able to completely protect the country, they would definitely need some support from the United States. Let's talk about talking to the Taliban. It's an idea that's been going around for 17 years now. Are you optimistic about the current talks? Okay, no, I mean, the simple answer is I'm not, I'm not optimistic at all. In fact, I don't think that we should be talking to them in this format whatsoever. My initial thought with it was that talking is good at all times. And maintaining a channel open for conversations, even in the darkest moments of the Cold War, you still had conversations between rival nations that were ready to push the button and go the wrong direction for the planet. But we've built these false expectations that, you know, negotiations are just around the corner. And unfortunately, this sort of notion reinforces the worst sort of tendencies in this town, because people want to get out. So we just, we almost are setting ourselves up for a really rather be careful what you ask for, because we're talking to, we say we're talking to Afghans who are just having an alternative view of what's going on. And, you know, they, their voices deserve to be heard, too. I'm sorry, when things are going boom, and they're killing thousands of people, you know, that there is no talk that's going to make that thing better. At one point, okay, that's fair. At one point, that should happen. But not now. We're there, as I'm in very accurately described, and quite frankly, I've been very adamant about they're a terrorist organization. And until they start behaving otherwise, then we should treat them as terrorists. And last time I checked, we don't negotiate with terrorists, or at least that's our mantra, no matter how we may maintain some quiet conversations in one point. So through interlocutors, that's fair enough, but not this reconciliation. In fact, I'll go a step further to say that it undermines the Afghan government, in my opinion, because when we send our envoy to cutter, or when we talk about the Russia talks with no official representation from the Afghan government, or when we have these conversations as if we are talking to yet another government and waiting, it's absolutely nonsense. We're going to actually damage the integrity, I think, of the state that we're actually trying to uphold and strengthen, which should be our objective. I mean, look, insurgencies are, at their very core, a competition. It's a competition for the masses. It's that dilemma that somebody may have in terms of joining the government or supporting the insurgency. And the way that we help our odds get better is not by engaging with the insurgency at stages where they're killing people, but by strengthening the government and making it much more attractive for the average Afghan to decide and to stay with the Afghan government rather than somehow make it appear as if there's some legitimacy associated with the Afghan Taliban. So that's my take on it. I think, I mean, I was born in war. I grew up in war, and I have experienced the atrocities of war and what war can do. First hand, like me, millions of Afghans, they do want to have peace. But the cost of peace has to be defined. You know, at what cost should we have peace for the Taliban when they are killing us, basically on a daily basis. As a student of conflict transformation, you know, unless the issue of sanctuaries that the Taliban enjoy across the border, you know, in Pakistan, unless there is a Kuwaitashura, until there's a Kuwaitashura, Peshawar Shura, and they have a base basically across the other side of the border, I think it will be very difficult to any sort of like settlements that we will be able to reach. I think I want to go back to the points that how forgiving Afghans are, you know, when we demonstrated that during the three-day ceasefire. But, I mean, I agree with you, Yanni, that the Afghan government has to be strengthened. The institutions of governance in the country has to be strengthened. They should be able to provide services for the citizens across all parts of the country. And I think it's good and it's okay if there are basically talks, but when it comes to the negotiations themselves, like I said, it has to be, you know, the Afghan government, the Afghan people. Like, they should feel that they are owning this process if we want to have a long-lasting peace. If there's going to be something on a piece of document that's not going to last, if the civil society, if media, if others, they don't feel that they're part of this. And, yeah. Can I add one thing? Because I meant to say it, you're exactly right. Afghan people are very forgiving. Certainly, they are incredibly forgiving when you approach them with an open heart and you approach them with the desire and respect associated with forgiveness. They're also very unforgiving and revengeful if you take the exact opposite approach and there is no remorse and there is nothing of the sort. So, we have to be careful because, look, the Marines went down to Helmand and they achieved a lot in 2010 and 11. Okay? And there were a lot of Afghans that stuck their head out and believed in the concept that we're here. We're going to be with you. We're going to help you out. We're going to do this. And then we left. And there's been a bloodbath in a lot of those towns because of what happened. We can say that about other places, too. And the point here is that forgiveness is an incredible concept that belongs with people that behave in norms, you know, within norms. When somebody comes out and actually behaves in that way, I'll be as forgiving as anybody can be. I'll be the best Afghan in that context. But when they don't and they're killing people left, right, and center and the great example of the three-day ceasefire, every Afghan I know had the greatest admiration and sort of good hope that this is a change. But you know what? Those people started killing at alarming rates immediately after that. So, they know how to switch on and off. Okay? They haven't switched off. So, when they're ready to switch off, let's talk. But when they're not, it's a real troubling sort of perspective. How many do the people trust the Taliban? I mean, can we trust them? I think the Taliban, they know that they do not have the legitimacy per se, like in the whole country. I think in pockets of the country, they may be able to control territory and they may be able to have their own structure of governance. But in my view, most of that is true intimidation and true fear. I think the last 17 years, the country has really, really transformed. Like two-third of the Afghan population is basically under the age of 35. It's this new Afghanistan who enjoys a vibrant civil society and active media outlets and so forth. And a lot of developments have happened. So, in terms of trust, I don't think the Afghans, they trust him. And I think we should be aware that the war that literally we are fighting in Afghanistan, this is not an internal conflict. It's an imposed war against Afghans. And if the Taliban, they do want to have peace, there is the Afghan constitution. Literally a few thousands, let's say 10,000, 20, 30, 40, 50,000 people, we shouldn't have this notion that you mentioned that there's a rushed process that we are in a hurry to have a peace deal with the Taliban and bringing them into the system of governance in Afghanistan. If the Taliban want to be part of the process of governance in Afghanistan, they should come and participate in the elections. We have a presidential election scheduled for the April of 2019. And they can come and run, but I think they know that they don't have the legitimacy on that base. I'm wondering about, do the Afghan people have hope? Because in 2007 and earlier after 9-11, Afghanistan was such a haven and such a great place to be, restaurants, shops, chicken street. I wonder if that still exists today, can people go out and walk and really enjoy life? And what went wrong between then and now? Why are we in a position where there are so many attacks in Kabul and it just, for a Westerner, doesn't seem like a safe place to be? I know an Afghan may have a different perspective. I think I will begin, for me, you know, as an Afghan-American, of course I have to be careful, like where I go to meetings and things along those lines, but life really is normal. Restaurants are open, they're open, people go out to dinner, they have parties. You know, when I was in the country, literally there was a bomb that went off, like that took some casualties, and I got an invitation like a few hours later that there's a dinner. You know, so it's like, me and Yanni, we were talking earlier, but the normal thing that is there is not the same as normal that you and I probably would experience here in the United States, in Washington. But overall, I think they're very resilient, you know, and life goes on in Afghanistan despite all the conflict and everything that's happening in the country. So definitely there is life, there are enjoyments, you see wedding celebrations, parties, but overall I think, I mean I don't want to paint a rosy picture. There are challenges associated in the country as well, economic challenges, security challenges, and so forth. There's an element, my trouble is I straddled two worlds. You know, on the one hand, having gone to Afghanistan since 2005, I, you know, there aren't many airports that I feel like I land in and as ridiculous as it may sound to anybody here, you know, I land in that little airport in Kabul and I walk out and I breathe the air and I feel like I'm home. You know, you walk a little bit further and you see this ridiculous, you know, fountain-like or structure of dolphins in a landlocked country and I chuckle every time I go through there but you know, it's the chuckle of somebody who actually feels like, you know, this might, this is where I live, this is where I feel most comfortable in. So maybe I've grown comfortable in that environment but the truth is that it is getting more dangerous and their Afghans are very resilient and quite frankly they don't back down from challenges so they learn how to live with new norms but at the same time it's challenging, particularly outside of Kabul. There's probably, you know, an attack happens in Kabul but and there are definitely some mass casualty attacks that happen but for the most part on a day-to-day basis, you know, there's probably parts of DC that are more dangerous than parts of Kabul but the truth is that you have to be conscious of who you are, where you are and how you may be targeted in Kabul but it's outside of Kabul that is far more challenging and you know the roads are difficult and you go 50, 100 meters left and right of a major highway and you have some challenges and people, this is the stuff that we can say we control the population centers and everything else but Afghanistan is more than the cities and the truth is that, you know, we downplay the control that Afghan Taliban may have over the areas and the countryside but the reality is we need to get that back because that's not, that's the heart, you know, in many regards of, you know, people's homes, their villages, their, you know, their ability to reach out to them is kind of important. So in terms of the security, you know, there's challenges, in terms of hope to your original point, look, hope is, is, is that, you know, if mining is or minerals is a great abundance in Afghanistan, I only wish we could, you know, monetize the incredible hope that is in that country because that's, that's perhaps the greatest, you know, sort of resource that it has, it's, it's huge, it's, it's immense. Where we fall short of is delivering on promises that keep that hope up, you know, when, when, and when that happens, you allow other elements of society to feed on the lack of hope or the, or the lack of progress and, and create the negative things that diminish hope. Are other countries filling the gap? Tell us about China and Russia and Iran, what's happening in the region? They're, they're, here's the thing, the, it's, it's, it's actually interesting to observe as an American there. We go there with the greatest intention and other countries may feel otherwise, but I wish we were a little bit more, you know, nuanced in our approach. I wish we were a little bit more like hey, you know, we're helping out so much, maybe the mining should not be, we should attract western firms because of western pro processes, we should attract western firms, Canadian, American, British, because not only we just bled there, but, but they're actually a lot more keen for corporate social responsibility, different practices for the environment, all those things. I wish we were a little bit more nuanced about it. Unfortunately, we go there with the best intentions of doing right and good and all that other stuff. Other countries are not, they're predatory. China is not there because it needs to create some sort of, you know, silk road that benefits Afghanistan. My God, they're there like locusts to take material away from that country and as long as there's a benefit to the Afghan state, quite frankly, I'm okay with that. As long as it's not a predatory practice where they promise some kind of, you know, royalty rates for the example of, of mining at Mezinak, they promise some sort of royalty rates. They promise railroads. They promise, they promise, they promise and then they see a weakened Afghan government over the years and they come in in predatory behavior and say, well, look, that was 17%. Let's go with something much, much lower. Or, you know that railroad that I promised? You know, it's not going to happen so soon. And so now we have these predatory behaviors that are not benefiting the country. Russia, come on. Russia is not Afghanistan's friend. There's quite a lot of data that supports that concept. You know, so the idea that somehow they're in there for some kind of interest is ridiculous. Iran has legitimate concerns. It has a border. It has water issues. It has all sorts of things. But are they looking at it from a let's help of brother out here? I'm not so sure. Pakistan, you think about that. They have been, Sami al-Haq, the father of the Taliban, was killed in Raul Pindi a few days ago. Okay? These walk amongst them. These animals, these people that have been responsible for so many deaths and so much destruction are walking around like it's nothing. In Qaeda, they were jumping up and down when Razik was killed. You know? They were having, they were doing the aton. You know? So these are, they walk amongst, so that's where I have a challenge is these countries may have legitimate national interest. And we should consider that. But when they are doing it in a way that actually diminishes the strength or the argument of Afghanistan has a right to exist and to prosper and, you know, they take predatory behavior. I'm not cool with that. I couldn't have said better than this. So I'll defer to them. He takes the next one. Is Ashraf Ghani a good leader? Is he popular? I mean it's my personal view. I think in my view I think he's a good leader. There are some on the political elite side that they may be, there may be some disagreements and some people they may not like him. So when I was in Kabul actually I had a breakfast, you know, with an individual, a businessman. And this man, you know, of course, he knows the president but what he was telling me and he was like look, as a businessman I feel I can do business better now because there is less corruption in institutions of governance in Afghanistan. And so I think he is trying but being the president of Afghanistan is not an easy task. I mean he is active, he's engaged, you know, of course I mean I'm not, I haven't worked with him closely per se but I have a lot of friends who work with him who share basically his visions for the country. So he does have a vision for the country who he is working hard for, you know, from peace to making the country reliant in the long term. But like I said, you know, there are like in every, I guess, administration in every government you will have oppositions and you will have people who may not necessarily like your style of governance or your style of leadership. But he is not corrupt as an individual as a president and he is trying hard I think to, I guess, bring peace to that part of the world. I think one of his biggest achievements I would say is that in terms of foreign policy that he went on and he made it like literally public that we have this undeclared war with Pakistan, you know, like he brought that story, you know, from Washington to Brussels to others and brought the international community's attention that we are dealing with this kind of imposed war and trying to make the economy better. I think since he took office the Afghan revenue has increased by 60 percent, you know, like revenue collection. Just recently, a few days ago the World Bank doing business indicator that was published, Afghanistan has jumped 16 percent comparing to last year basically in terms of making the environment of doing business in Afghanistan better. And then, you know, other regional initiatives that has taken place under his government and the previous governments but mostly under his leadership that he pushed faster on that is the cost of 1000 Central Asia, South Asia. Electric basically great that he has worked hard and pushed for the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India gas pipeline if it were to materialize in Afghanistan. So overall, I think in a natural, I personally respect him, you know, I used a lot of his work when I wrote my thesis on nation building and I think he means well and he's doing, working hard to making that country a better country. One more question before we open it up but Yanni, if somebody asked you to brief the president on November 7th about why we should stay in Afghanistan what would you say? President Trump? Well, I mean the the short answer is it's in our vital national interest to remain in Afghanistan and the, you know, because leaders like that like short, concise statements I would say that the Taliban would probably allow the same safe havens inside of Afghanistan of terrorist groups to remain or re-adjust themselves to orient themselves back there. There's a pocket of ISIS there that is of a serious concern not just to Afghanistan but to the region and by extension to in our national interest and we shouldn't forget that although people say that they're only about 120 Al Qaeda members in the region, we keep killing a lot of them and they seem to stay at the magic number of 120, same with the magic number of about 1,800 ISIS that we keep on killing them with the mother of all bombs and you know operations at a couple hundred at a time but somehow some way they retain their numbers at about 1,800 so the numbers games play is really I mean the point is the numbers don't really matter that much the matter is that that we have a a terrorist terrorist pockets still there. The last thing and and this is perhaps counterintuitive because it's really easy for all of us to throw the big you know but if it wasn't for Pakistan's you know activity over there everything would be you know perfect in in Afghanistan the the fact is is that we need to be in Afghanistan because things are not that stable in Pakistan I mean it's a different country it's a it's a very important country quite frankly and and they have hundreds of millions of people there we're we're seeing the violence associated with with the with Asia Bibi who's you know who was actually released by the judicial system of Afghanistan because of some blasphemy laws but there's a challenge there's a friction between extremists in in Pakistan and you know the what I consider the moderate state of Pakistan and so allowing this Afghanistan to dissolve into some kind of a spiral that allows things to to deteriorate to where an extremist organization such as the Taliban is is taking hold is not going to help actually I think the situation in Pakistan as as weird as that sounds I think it's going to actually create more of an extremism drive so it's not in the interest of I argue I know I'm not I'm in the minorities at times that's not in the interest of the Pakistan state to have you know Afghanistan fall apart so there there's so many dynamics to this and I and I know I've gone past my little executive summary to the president but but there's you could just sit there item after item after item after item why the fight matters there and it's the fight that matters there it's not so much the the the the the government that's in power right now or the one that's going to come in power in May it's it's actually the fact that that space is is a troubled space and we need to be conscious of the fact that it needs to be stabilized if I were to sit with the president I think I would tell him that Mr president let's not make the same mistakes we made in the 1980s there's this famous quote from burjanski like back then he was the national security advisor that he says when the soviet strapped like when the Soviet Union was dismantled or destroyed he said that the world's world remember the liberation of eastern Europe and the fall of an empire the world will not remember a bunch of thugs referring basically to the mujahideen or the freedom fighters when the US decided to leave and he couldn't be more wrong like once the US abandoned Afghanistan back then that created that security void and it lets you know to al qaeda coming and taking over Afghanistan and the Taliban we know basically the rest of the story so my message with to the president would be that mr president let's not make that mistake that we did in the 1980s right now in Afghanistan I think we have a reliable partner there is a partner who is willing you know the afghan people they do want to they do want the united states to stay in afghanistan and I often say this analogy that we want to be you know afghanistan wants to be the south korea for the united states in terms of this strategic relationship in a north korea like neighborhood you know so I do hope that that message goes by great thank you any question and please state your name and your affiliation Ali from Pakistan embassy I have a question which I'll try to be as short as possible with three parts and firstly this this that it seems that everything is going to a good extent good in Afghanistan but how would you both of you respond to the cigar report released on 30th of october which says more than 55 percent or less than that is the control of taliban and secondly corruption drug and all of these are internal to afghanistan and us has no primary objective in afghanistan and that's why probably this is happening that it is nobody in the washington DC circles that's the first part and secondly since you've talked about the sanctuaries in pakistan and pakistan always says that in the last two years all the terrorist attacks which have reduced considerably in pakistan have originated from afghanistan so both of you should be that means afghan as well as the u.s. side should be strict supporter of the border management which pakistan is right now doing individually spanning millions and millions of dollars so why do we not see a support from the one or the u.s. side for this border management because it is going to greatly reduce or curtail this cross-border acquisitions and last one just a deja vu regarding the taliban and samuel haq molana i would refer to the statement by helen glinton where she clearly spells out who created the taliban who financed them about two three decades ago and what are your comments on that particular aspect um okay do you want me to start okay um i i think i understood the first one i'm sorry if i if i didn't if you don't mind making sure i clarified i i don't think i've i've indicated that everything is going great in afghanistan i i i think to the contrary i i think we're we're in a rather dangerous uh glide slope towards negative outcomes in in afghanistan the cigar report um i've read most of it and and and i have to say that it sounds reasonable it sounds reasonable that uh the percentages of taliban controlled territory or for sure contested territory have gone up i think it's probably a little bit rosy in its approach uh i think that we tend to uh you know put the plateaus of daikundi and the mountains of barakshan in in like government controlled territory as in comparison to the you know more nuanced perspective um i can tell you from my my my vantage point of visiting the country and seeing different portions of it um i i think it's much more dangerous than the cigar reports what's it so the first answer is that it's it's uh we have to face the challenges and not pretend that they're not there um but i think that we've we've hurt our effort by quite frankly suggesting that we're somehow arresting the taliban uh movement it's uh you know momentum we haven't i think they're they're quite strong um in terms of the corruption um my uh so i don't hog the entire time i'll i'll just mention this and if i'd be more than happy to discuss this with you at length i think what happens with corruption is that uh number one if you don't tackle it it's going to continue and get worse uh but at the same time when you put pressure on a system that's already under extreme pressure and there is no uh clarity in terms of are we staying are we leaving corrupt people will go and eat more they'll gorge themselves because they think that they have limited amount of time and therefore it just becomes an even worse situation and that's what we're experiencing in some ways uh there's some areas that have been proved but in many you know predatory behaviors that are happening i think it's it's probably you know not not so positive when it comes to trending um afghan border management um actually look i i'm a very firm believer and admittedly this is a talk about afghanistan but you know it can't go without a mention of pakistan it seems like uh i i'd like to actually identify afghanistan and deal with some afghan problems first and then we can talk about the external sort of challenges and and and handle it in buckets but the reality is we and as most these things happen i'm sure you experience it all gets mixed together um the border control issue is is absolutely imperative i think there are legitimate concerns about afghan um you know safe havens on the afghan side that impact um uh pakistan i think that uh those are um legitimate concerns and and quite frankly i don't think many people would would argue that i think what most people would argue is the scale of the of you know that grouping that it acts against pakistan versus the scale of what is perceived as groupings that affect afghanistan but you're exactly right there is um a concern that needs to be handled and i'm an advocate of the the the border control however people tend to get into this durand line issue as you i'm sure understand that that sort of solidifies somehow from the afghan side a claim that they don't you know uh adhere to as a as an american if i was gonna again advise my president i would actually say that rather than dealing with reconciliation with the taliban we should be talking about reconciliation of issues key issues such as those because those can reduce friction between the two countries instead of amplifying friction in some ways by dealing with the with the with the insurgency as a primary issue rather than a state-to-state consideration that needs to be addressed lastly in terms of who can create of the taliban i'm not sure that that's a conversation that we really want to have on this one but i would say that what really started the taliban was the failure of the post you know soviet afghan experience what started the taliban was the seven you know mujahideen groups that couldn't get their act together in a civil war that created there's also evidence though that that pakistan in its national interest and that's something that we have to take stock of in its national interest supported the taliban and and and created you know the state that my country had to contend with afterwards did we screw up in the beginning absolutely the way that we left a hundred percent it's irrefutable that we should have done some things different with the benefit of historical uh you know review but when it comes to what happened afterwards and the fact that we dealt with a nine eleven and no small part because of the safe haven for al-qaeda and afghanistan i think we there's plenty of blame to go around on on who created them i just find it offensive quite frankly um and and maybe it's this faithful to you to to hear it but i find it offensive that we're not arguing about substantive issues you know such as how do we resolve challenges rather than talking about a could you help us out with the reconciliation in with the taliban i mean that's like asking somebody if you can help me with you know bandaging my wound but not helping me with my cancer that i'm dying from you know so um that sorry for the i hope i answered if not we can talk later i think you answered do you want any time for one more question hey john thank you john you can't is my name thank you for coming out and sharing your perspectives my question is almost a chance for a message at the same time i think it's fair statement that united states or western democracies have a waning support for the ongoing war which parts of the coalition strategy do you see as working and then how can you craft a persuasive message to stay the course that's a great great question okay um look um we waited far too long to create you know what's considered the modern afghan army or afghan police we were quite bulky in the way that we sort of put together 350 000-ish you know security forces that are supposed to protect afghanistan when in fact the truth is that a lot of people are dying but uh but only small portions of that is actually effectively fighting the the the insurgency um i think that we need to have a reassessment quite frankly of our long-term strategy of towards afghanistan i think that we need you know to to address very specific fixes we cannot handle a thousand casualties over a couple months in the afghan security forces how do we fix that those are very specific things that we need to address we had eight helicopter accidents since march in the afghan security forces that is normal even in a wartime that that shouldn't be the case how do we fix that okay um the deployed advisors there is rumors in by the cigar that you know perhaps they're not receiving the adequate training i'm not sure if that's accurate or not i don't have the figures but if that's the case then you know shame on us because we know that the advisory support mission is the primary mission in afghanistan if we're not putting sufficient intellectual capital and and putting the right people there then you know mistakes so to answer your question specifically we have to have specific answers to all these things right now we're sort of still in the you know there's no military solution it's it's got to be political event i think general miller is finished up his his uh assessment of the situation as every commander does and you know odds are and haven't known general miller for quite a long time i'm sure he's going to come with very specific answers to fix these problems he's not a you know wave big brushes kind of person he's actually very specific so i hope we get that very soon because we're running out of time and just to add to what you only say in terms of the development of the afghan security forces there's a big transition that is also happening on the air force side that's the afghan army they're transitioning from you know the russian helicopters to an american-based i think 150 plus helicopters blackhawks that are going to be given and there are already pilots who are receiving trainings on that front that is also very very significant but just quick points you know on on ali's remarks referencing basically cigar in terms of the Taliban controlling 55 percent of the territory in afghanistan i mean i personally believe that it's debatable you know and from the 34 provinces that afghanistan have i mean the central government is controlling basically r34 but if there are you know some districts that the Taliban are controlling and there are some that are contested that's definitely of course an issue that can be discussed but overall like even in those areas it's the issue of governance do they really govern basically those areas you mentioned you know border management and taliban's operating in the other side of the afghan border i think from my understanding the afghan security forces they have been very cooperative with with with the pakistani government in terms of arresting some of these taliban leaderships the pakistani taliban and handing them over basically on the other sides to to pakistani officials and i think on the other side from the afghan expectation that has been also that the pakistanis they reciprocate you know i mentioned you know in my remarks the pakistani the kweta shura the peshawar shura but from the afghan perspective there shouldn't be good or bad taliban you know good taliban to go and basically fight in afghanistan bad taliban who kind of are fighting the pakistani interests so really like i think i mean from peoples to people relation if you if you were to say neighbor gree relations the afghans they do want to have a good relationship with pakistani i think when president ghani took office he literally broke protocol by going to the army chief's office you know trying to ask the pakistani officials and others and helping in bringing the taliban to the negotiating table and helping and during the peace and the peace process and i think you referenced helery clinton and taliban creation yanni addressed that and maybe we can bring that question up to secretary clinton but on border management i think it's it's definitely an issue that needs to be discussed you know on both sides i think you mentioned the duran line which i'm not going to touch it now but you can have a side conversation later now it is it just that was you know it was going to clarify yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah and and it's actually the 45 percent is contested it's contested yeah yeah i really appreciate those comments here today which were realistic were really we don't hear them here i might have phrased it somewhat differently but but i think that it's important that we do that as you say otherwise we set up false expectations i wonder whether the basic problem here with negotiations is that we're under the assumption what it is is that the Taliban just want a better deal that somehow if we gave them the right combination of of concessions that that that they would say well okay yes we'll have a political party now and we'll we'll we'll enter the political system isn't the real problem here is the Taliban some of the Taliban keep telling us they say we want an emirate we want the restoration of the emirate yes it'll be a little different than it was before we learned some lessons but that's what we want if they wanted a some kind of power sharing arrangement they could have had that any time over the last six seven years the terms might have been a little different just to conclude this more of a comment than a question I'm afraid it strikes me that we can get an agreement with the Taliban tomorrow they'll sit down with us if well will you do it on their terms not ours we're asking them to do it on our terms and why should we be surprised that they won't even sit down to talk about peace much less concluding peace a couple of ad hoc sort of things first I'm sorry John I kind of brushed your the Air Force portion out because I tend to over focus on Air Force because a former officer just like you I actually think that if we didn't have the air component at this point the percentages would look a lot different so I think the Blackhawks it's going to take some time for them to get up to speed the AC208s that are coming in are probably going to come quicker the MD530s the C130s all that stuff is going to the A29s they're going to keep on being key components and we need to strengthen that we need to send the right people I think you raised an incredibly important topic in terms of the reconciliation one of the reasons why I don't think that it's the right time is number one like I said I don't like getting in conversations about resolving this while being shot at but the reality of it is I'll take it if I think that there's something real I just don't think there's anything real like you said when they come out and say we want the U.S. out completely and we want they consider the government of Afghanistan a puppet regime that is not legitimate and they want to completely bring in a regime change so their totality into their changes required for this to work maybe a good starting point like hey I'll go high you go low we'll meet in the middle but that we're not buying carpets here you know this is this is actually something much more significant so I think you're right I'll say in closing comments because I assume that that's where we are look there's President Trump was able to see the two Koreas meet at the you know at a point you know at the DMZ where you know everybody said it's impossible you know that it's going to happen and and they did I think that there are some for all that we can say about tweeting and everything else you know he's achieved certain things that are we didn't believe that it was going to be you can be pro or or against but certain things you know he achieved in terms of the starting points I'm not saying that we've actually achieved peace in Korea I'm not saying that we've actually achieved you know the reality or materialized but there's some things that have happened you know when it comes to Afghanistan I think he he was persuaded to do the right thing and I'm obviously biased in my opinion but we need to keep on adding the right mechanism for him to stay engaged or otherwise we're all going to suffer Pakistan is going to suffer Afghanistan is going to suffer Iran is going to suffer the stands are going to suffer because this is not good for anybody if if if Afghanistan you know goes down in flames so with this I appreciate again new americas take on this Trisha thanks for hosting it graciously and I made seriously a pleasure being on stage with you and keep the keep up the good fight we need people like you involved in this thank you so much you know also to share you know a few a few things Marvin regarding your question that I want to highlight to you and the audience who are watching this probably live Afghanistan of 2018 is not the Afghanistan of 2001 or 2000 or the 90s that the Taliban had their emirates so that is something that we have to be aware of this Afghanistan of 2018 on any indicator that you put the country since then politically economically socially you see advancements and improvement in the country we have more women in our parliaments than the U.S. has in its congress here there are more women in cabinet positions in Afghanistan than even we have here vibrant civil society media so the dream of the Taliban to have this Emirates of Islamic Emirates is I think it's going to remain probably a dream but one other quick point on the Taliban in my view the Taliban I think the smart question is to ask Pakistan really that what is it Pakistan that want from Afghanistan and their assistance to help basically bringing the Taliban to some sort of a negotiating table so one last point I think in closing you know Afghanistan genuinely has moved forward you know they are embracing regional initiatives they do you know the Afghans and the Afghans they do want Afghanistan to be developed and prosperous they want to be living side by side in a peaceful neighborhood you know with Pakistan with Iran with other neighbors but I think the Taliban if they think that they want to come back and re-establish an Emirates that's going to be a tall order on that note thank you very much thank you to new America and thank you to Iran and to the U.S.