 Being right mate, good morning Tuesday 29th o octob, I just got ATM here in London, so just starting to get their EU open. As you can see on my right-hand side, all-time highs printed in the S&P, printing above that 3025 and extending on the futures as high as 3041 in yesterday afternoon's trade, a big move in the markets to begin the week ahead of the Fed on Wednesday and we can just bring in the S&P here welais llawer o grwmit iawn, iawn o'r puin, dwi'n gallu rhoi llawer o wel nghymple, yn 32 eu hunain, rynnwys gyda ni성un cymaint gyda師io. Efallais ychydig eich bod hefyd y DA 되지aidd y usualau trafod kuniol roedd 28 o Gym présidentol efo'r fath a nawr yn iddynt hefyd wedi gwerth ei fath yr ydynt shyfquet. We'n galwus i mi ai mynd mi so yn yma mewn coleg niwn ar iciwn. felly mae'r gweithio yng ngyrsgwyr yn golygu i gwasanaethol yn ysgrif iawn, ac mae'n gyrsgwyr ar gyfer y ddechrau yma yn y gweithio. Mae'n gweithio'n gweithio ac mae'n gweithio yma yn nifer y ddechrau. Mae'n gweithio'n gwneud yn y dda i fod yn y cyd-ddoedd am yr oed, ac mae'n gweithio'n cyd-ddoedd yn ei ddweud, ac mae'n cyfrifio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio. Ac yn gweithio ymlaid y cwpio'r cyflawn hefyd. I gael fan hynny wedi cyd-dweud yn y gynhyrch i'r awtio. A'r gwaith ar y gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio a'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio yn y gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio. Mae'r bwrdd yn ymweld yn drwy'r hyn o'r cyfrifol, ond mae'n rhaid i'r ffasgwrdd yn y cyfrifol, ond mae'r hyn o'r bwysig, i'r ddechrau'n gwybod i'r 12 oed, byddai'r ddechrau. Os ymlaen nhw bod yn apod, mae'n gyfrifol yn gweithio'r nazstac. Ond dweud, yr SNP wedi cyf- safnig idio yn blod yn cyd- ym d hyg. Felly, ac yn adegonhau i'r cyd- ym mhawr, y nesaf eu hwn yn fflodol. Felly that's because alphabet earnings came out and target by the colour of the candle. You can see that they just missed, or they did miss earnings as well. So, ydw i'n fwy o ddiwedd ar y gynhyrch o wneud dod o'r mhaf hyn o'r map i os yw. Mae'r ydych chi'n gyd yma'n meromethau ar beth hynny yn lle'r llynchedd ystod, dwi'n credu gwneudgeddenydd, yn mynd i'r hollbeth, ac yn i'r wyphem, felly sefydl ag yn gwneud i ddweud, m proofu'r hollbeth o'r hollbeth, cael y dreid, a'r hollbeth o'r hollbeth, mae wedi'n bredd, wrth gwrs, yn ymohod gyun, ac yn ymwneud wedi'i hynny, sydd yn llunio ble wedi'n cael oaf wedi'n siarad. It was just this time last year where they're expected to be the worst and however long again expected there for quarter one and two but good earnings it for the stocks and also yesterday we did have Donald Trump speaking and it's going to bring in the stock market. Here's some P500 again we had Donald Trump saying today obviously yesterday is going to be a very good day for stocks and we pushed higher pretty much from from there as well. It's not the first time he said it and actually it's going back to the last time that he said this. It can't exactly get the date for you but either way the last time he said it was actually going to be a gap lower from the weekend. The market was up big yesterday and it's going to be big again today and the stock market actually tumbled that day so it's not always guaranteed that the market will follow exactly what Trump says but however yesterday was a day where that did happen. Decent push above the highs, good opportunity post cash open as well on a retracement and we continued on into the back end of the session. At the same time gold by the bring in the gold chart here you can see broker a trend line that we talked about in the briefing. The first real attempt of it was a bit choppy, did snap back but you can see once we got that confirmed break, retest, really strong move and we cleared 1500 with ease which was on paper anyway like a good area of support and we're now back towards that 1492 level which I like the look of or did like anyway however we are just trying to recover a bit of those gains. Yesterday very much risk on President Trump adding fresh optimism on the US-China trade front saying the two are ahead of schedule on forging phase one of a trade deal. Opportunity wise how much is left on this supposed trade deal, well the way the market goes you can probably say they are still a bit left but I guess the best move would come on talks breaking down as well. And especially with the Fed on Wednesday if Trump isn't happy you can absolutely expect him to bang the drum and say trade talks are breaking down to maybe get the Fed to move in the way he wants. So be cautious ahead we've got some big earnings coming out as well tomorrow which could of course influence price going forward. But yesterday Trump saying it was going to be a good day for stocks that the two are ahead of schedule and we saw very much risk on stocks push higher. Gold came lower, T notes as you can see here also breaking out of a decent area of support from last week however just a slight attempt to recover a bit this morning. Just going back to that, that's quickly you can see just how violent and that is on the open pushing initially down to that low snapping back to almost make a new high for the day and we're now back below there as well. Seven minutes into the open wonder to keep an eye on going forward. Also yesterday worth bringing in oil price which initially had made a new multi week high above the high that we saw on Friday printing up towards $56.92 almost hitting $57. However decent push lower in the end by the time oil move and that's continued today breaking a trend line you can see here that's drawn on nice break retest as you can see this was now around sort of half five into the afternoon. So the biggest well the first time we dropped in a week amid signs of swelling crude inventories in the world's biggest economy so data provider genscape said oil sorted in Oklahoma expanded by 1.5 million barrels last week which is just reviving concerns about sluggish demand and ample inventories. So yeah a decent push lower in oil and just looking at this more technically you can see where we're trading now or just a bit below you've got that really key point from $55 which offered such good resistance as a zone at the beginning towards the end of the month of October. So can we come back to test that we're only 29 pips above so from where we traded a decent move lower in oil scene yesterday and that has continued today as well. To go in over to well I guess we'll start off with the overnight headline now the alphabet earnings were dented. So this was that move that you saw in the Nasdaq alphabet and extended trading overnight was was down a bit you saw from the Finvis chart we quickly to switch back to that whereas alphabet here you can see was actually at 1.95% on the close in extended trading. It was of course down as it missed the share price at $10 12 it came in per share down from $9.2 billion or $13.06 a share in the same period a year earlier the company reported on Monday that year on year was down quite a bit. Analysts had expected a 12.35% a share according to data. Alphabet shares fell at 1.5% in extended trading after closing at $1,288 in New York. The stock of course on Monday hit a fresh record high so in the build up to these earnings along with general positive sentiment was already pushing on so a bit of a snap back there. Whether that can continue for stocks ahead of the Fed or not I wouldn't be too sure just having a look at the if I just bring in the earnings calendar here. If we just have a look at Wednesday earnings got Apple you got Facebook all coming out as well. So just to you know getting a strong move just of the alphabet earnings I'd be a bit hesitant when you got the big things coming later on really today is going to be the again probably the most second least. Exciting the second most quiet after yesterday and it really kicks on from tomorrow where you've got the feds, you've got the Bank of Canada rate decisions, you've got ADP heading on farm perils on Friday, Apple on Facebook earnings coming out which we know can move markets nicely. And then you've got some European and data, you've got the Bank of Japan rate decision. So it's going to be a decent three days shall we say of course Brexit day has now been cancelled as the UK accepted the 31st of Jan but some are to bear in mind this. So alphabet shares down now off their highs and that's that relatively flat this morning it has to be said just bringing that in you can see in trade it's just coming towards the low. So be keeping an eye on the Dax really whether that is going to break which you can see it's continuing here to push down on the open there. So once have marked up the Dax continues then sure S&P and then that's that could of course break through. Moving on to Brexit just going to go over a couple of slides here saw on on Twitter last night. Anthony's at King's College University and he's done some some slides for them so absolutely going to steal these and thanks to him he sent them over so just a summary of what happened yesterday. You can see well you would have heard about it the pound relatively unmoved it has to be said but the Prime Minister tried for a third time on Monday to trigger a snap poll to end the impasse and rebuffed again by House of Commons. So the idea here trying to get the general election voted through didn't get the two thirds received 299 short of the 434 needed just out of the corner of my eye by the way. Now is that breaking that low as the Dax continues to push down so a bit of risk off in the market in the markets is gold. The Bund and Tina was just trying to push on but only 12 minutes into the open so just be slightly careful there as well. He will try again on Tuesday so today to get Parliament to allow an early election to take place this time using an easier legal route. This is known as a one line bill a basic piece of legislation change in the date setting law for the next election on December the 12th. So just having a look around this is I would say more likely to pass just having a look at the way markets are pricing in a potential general election. It really feels quite undecided about where the pound is going to go here. So just bringing in this is the longer term pound chart that you would have seen in the morning or the afternoon I guess yesterday the strategy report that got sent out about possible scenarios where the pound could go. I mean we're trading now on the futures anyway on the daily around 128 67 last week's high up at that 130 that we just couldn't get through. You know my personal opinion would be a general election comes with a bit of uncertainty only to see conservatives clean up and therefore Brexit deal becomes more likely and therefore we actually look closer to 134 by the time that happens mid December. However that uncertainty could absolutely weigh on things and I think you've got to imagine if it does come down anywhere towards 126 this bottom circle would be a great opportunity to buy. Of course the last general election didn't go to conservative plan so there's no guaranteeing this will but the recent polls obviously confirming that conservatives have a rather nice lead going in. So yeah the recent move just really pricing out that no deal which it seems to discuss completely off the table both from Europe and from the UK so I think that's fair that move. I think we're at fair price right now however a general election conservative win chance of that deal then going through I think the pound has to push higher overall and fair enough it's relatively choppy at the moment as you would expect just on that uncertainty which we know markets hate. But overall I'm pretty confident we have a decent move higher. Just seen a tweet come through about Boris Johnson today so he's trying to whisk through today's election bill in just six hours so sometimes you want to be aware of write these down absolutely second reading vote after 4.30 and the final vote by MPs after 6.30 p.m. So UK time the MPs denied individual votes on amendments if they are too many instead they'll be joined into a couple of combined votes. So times to be aware of certainly today 4.30 and 6.30 for those votes going forward. Going back to the slides here so he will only need a simple majority in the Commons rather than two thirds of the MPs for the bill to pass. So rather than two thirds yesterday one third oh it's just a simple majority today. The risk for Johnson is that politicians could try to amend his one line bill to set conditions on the election that he will not like and the PM would still need support from Lib Dems and S&P which he has at the moment. It's going to be a day filled with Brexit comments there was an article let me see if I've still got it on the chat. It's regarding Brexit yesterday with just the time stamps of everything that happened and you can just see how big this article is here on Bloomberg and I'll just pop it into the chat in a moment for all to have a read of. The developments I guess are what you would really want to focus on but there's going to be the same situation today where there's this different comments coming out. I've already seen Nora Coonsburg is tweeting about this, that and the other. So the main things I guess overall in summary of yesterday we want to focus on the Council, EU Council President Tusk confirms Johnson wrote to the EU to accept the January 31 extension or flex extension if you want to call it. I've got to say I'm quite surprised that the press are making a big deal out of the flex extension when the last one was a flex extension as well but whatever seems to be in the focus at the moment. So he got 299 votes needed the 434 so fell short so we're looking for deal number two today. Jeremy Corbyn said he won't vote for an election until the UK is no longer at risk of crashing out of the EU without an agreement so Jeremy Corbyn has been pushing for a general election for the last couple of years just stalling on that a bit at the moment. Pound rises 0.3% yesterday but look it's choppy, it's choppy, it's very range bound at the moment and looking at this from a technical point of view I'd be looking to see if these lows can start to join up with a trend 9. You can see yesterday we got that in the way you're starting from the 24th to the 5th to Friday and not quite or Monday I should say and not quite yet but keeping a watch on that because a break below there fine we can get a push to the downside. Yesterday the high very technically also the support that we had in the morning of the 24th so being to see developments today but I'd just be a bit careful trading the pound ahead of any concrete decision and general election despite my view that it will be an overall positive can come with that uncertainty so something just to bear in mind. The next slide so the potential timetable so we've had the agreed January 31 extension 2020 meaning the UK will not leave as planned on Halloween on Thursday it will only be draggy stepping out the door. EU Council Tusk said it flexed tension obviously as we were saying the Lib Dems and SNP want Monday 9 December which they say will prevent any chance of the PM's Brexit deal being approved before Parliament is dissolved. There needs to be a minimum of 25 working days before the date of an election to allow sufficient preparations to take place and hopefully from a conservative point of view they expect to put in a bit more of a shift this time than they did under Theresa May ahead of that vote in 2017 or the election I should say in 2017 as well. Looking here I've got some nice infographics from the BBC just about the routes that we could go down so MPs reject the early election December 12 we're now going for this short bill for an early election if it passes then we just have to decide the date is it going to be the 9th or 12th if it's rejected today and we'll know this this afternoon the options are bring back the Brexit bill a vote of no confidence referendum or no deal Brexit on the 31st. No deal Brexit 31st of Jan. I mean I think you've always got to give a little percentage to it but it happening on the 31st of Jan for me 12% and the markets have shown that we've really unpriced all of May's no deal not as in Theresa May the month of May where we start to come down in the pan we've sort of priced that out in recent times and I just don't see that happening. No one believed. I don't think Boris Johnson too much over the last few weeks where he said we'll leave 31st with or without it just wasn't possible and it's just not going to happen. What a vote of when a vote of no confidence is called how could the result effect of government wins government just presses on with plans of course we had a vote the Labour no confidence vote last year which Theresa May survived. If the government was to lose is there a clear alternative yes then the PM replaces the appointed and can any government win a confidence vote within 14 days if the answer is yes no general election new or old government continues if the answers are no then we can just get our way down to a general election which again would be quite interesting if we were to get there from a vote of no confidence. Would the Conservatives still be leading nicely in the polls has to remain to be seen but it's an interesting one on the general election side of things because if we go down the route of say Labour were to storm it and shock everyone and go down how they were going to have a second referendum and taking no deal of the table whatever this would see surely a pound rise whereas the Conservatives winning getting a more of a majority. It's getting a deal passed through which to be honest the main Brexiteers aren't all too happy about anyway would be surely seen as a pound positive as well I guess kicking the can down the road just from a negative point of view in that we're just delaying things further is probably what's the stalling price at the moment. So I have to say I'm a pound positive where I certainly against other pairs where the dollar will be an interesting one because of course we do have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision coming up on Wednesday and that obviously has the propensity to move all dollar pairs and be an interesting one also this week just to keep an eye on everything else that's coming out. We've got the that's going to bring up the calendar again here. You've got some interesting you've got the ADP Wednesday. You've got the Chicago PMIs out. You've got obviously non farm payrolls on Friday as well and some decent earnings which are all in their own right to move the S&P or the US dollar as well. So big week or big three days coming up post today to have a look at the calendar for today. You can see this is a mean relatively quiet in the morning has to be said from a data point of view of any significance to in the more in the afternoon usually three o'clock you see the consumer confidence but obviously the clock change as effective that that's coming out of the US. So something to bear in mind as you go into the the back end of the afternoon or the session European session as to say Carney speaking at 6pm but no text release for that. So again worth keeping a watch on couple of earnings coming out of the US UK and EU this morning. But really as we know with the apple and Facebook tomorrow that's where I'd certainly will be be focused on as well. So in summary of yesterday's I'm going to look at the markets how we stand now. We saw risk on in the market following positive trade talks ahead of schedule. Then we hit all time highs gold coming lower teen notes coming lower the boom lower alphabet earnings overnight were worse. We've got a slight bit of risk off here in the morning that's breaking that key level support and that's led to a push lower in the S&P Nasdaq and Dow Jones as well. And just helping gold teen notes in the boom push on but they're all hitting resistance at the moment. Euro and pound relatively choppy not expecting too much in the way of movement ahead of the Fed unless we were to get some real developments from the Brexit general election as well. Oil pushed lower ahead of inventories in Oklahoma storage up 1.5 million for the week barrels per week there as well. Any questions as usual please do let us know. Obviously beyond the mic throughout the day a couple of times just to be aware of so the second reading vote after 4.30 final vote for MPs after 6.30 so a lot of movement on talks happening for the pound related assets came after the EU closed yesterday and that's expected to be the same today. But of course expect comments to come out expect Donald Trump to be busy as well. The market's moving. Dax still lower. So slight risk off here to begin the session. 25 minutes into the EU closed. Hope you'll have a good trading day and I'll catch you all in the chat.