 This time last year we were standing here still having the conversation about decoupling of the developing world from the developed world and that some would continue to power ahead without major disruption from the downturn particularly we've seen here in the Eurozone and also the United States. As we stand here in 2013 we know that's been an incredible challenge. Some have managed that challenge much better than others. I'd like to frame this debate for the hour in the context of the frontier markets, the emerging markets, and the emerged markets if we can put it that way. They both all three hold different challenges of risk, high reward, and that challenge when you get to the emerge stage of being a developed economy or a near-dote developed economy and the challenges that poses to try to sustain long-term growth. It's a very widely held belief that the developing markets of the world can't sustain growth for a 20-year period. I'm kind of in the camp that they can because they've learned how to manage their monetary policy. As I noted here in my opening remarks to you we have a phenomenal panel of guests today, three central bank governors, a finance minister, and two leading CEOs from around the world that have staked the fortunes of their companies in large part on the emerging markets with Mukhtar Khan, the chief executive officer of Coca-Cola, and Karla Ghosn, the chief executive officer of Renault-Nissan. To start off our debate here let's take a look at our first report looking at the year that was from Davos 2012 to Davos 2013 and the implications it's had for the emerging markets. For a decade the BRIC nations dominated the emerging markets narrative. They were the world's new economic juggernaut. Turbo-charge engines of global growth propelled by the kind of annual output developed economies could but stand back and admire. Brazil, Russia, India and China were sitting pretty in the economic fast lane so the story went. Their rise as inevitable as it was impressive. But first came the global financial crisis, then its aftermath. And a new narrative has emerged for this new post-crisis world. One more nuance than we've experienced for many years. As we head through 2013, emerging markets find themselves at a crossroads. Economic growth amongst the BRIC nations has slowed and might never return to the levels of the last decade. Where once we saw the similarities that bound the BRIC nations, now their differences come to the fore. China and a league of its own bigger than the other BRICs, still with the strong growth still on schedule to surpass the U.S. as the world's biggest economy by 2030. While growth in Russia, Brazil and India stutters. The price paid some analysts say for delaying domestic reforms before the world's export markets began to fail. Meanwhile new emerging markets are rising to the fore rapidly growing, nimble, dynamic. In the decade ahead are the likes of Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines and Turkey tipped to lead the emerging market growth in the way the BRIC nations once did. And they become the new engines of global growth. For how long will their stars shine? Despite a decade of extraordinary growth, the journey to economic maturity is never an uninterrupted upward course. The journey of the BRIC nations has shown us that. Emerging markets will rise, others will fall, old guard replaced by the new. But for all emerging markets this year will likely further illustrate the road to economic development remains long and winding. So that gives us a very good indication of some of the challenges for 2013. We intentionally set this debate up to have a mixture of those from the BRIC economies of course but also from the next 11, the next 11 fast growing developing countries. I'd like to start with Nigeria and Governor Sunusi in fact because of the rise of Nigeria. The last 10 years spectacular average growth of nearly 7% compared to the previous decade of some 3%. Now the big challenges I noted in my report there is trying to sustain that sort of growth. Is it difficult to manage that with the lack of infrastructure that you have now in Nigeria? Well yes in the medium to long term it would be difficult to sustain without deep structural reforms. A lot of the growth has come from the domestic market, it's come from agriculture in particular. But agriculture has grown through increased factor intensity, not through increased productivity. And we've got to have a transformation plan that improves productivity of agriculture. That's a limit to how much you can use land and labour to continue adding agricultural production. And we saw the impact of that with the last floods last year. The floods basically affect agricultural growth and then slow down GDP from 7% to just over 6%. The outlook for the oil sector again is not too bright in the medium term with increased self-sufficiency in the United States. Therefore we do need to fast track structural reforms in the power sector, in the oil and gas sector, moving to petrochemicals and the cultural sector moving up the value chain. If we can do that, we can move actually into double digit growth and it can be sustained for a very long time. Double digit growth you're suggesting. That's very interesting. If you think of this country in the last 10 years, this is a country that has grown at 7% generating only 4,000 megawatts of electricity. So imagine what would happen if we started generating 20,000 megawatts of electricity. Manufacturing is only 4% or 5% of GDP because of the lack of poor infrastructure. If that improved 20% of GDP, you can just imagine the outcomes of that. So you're coming from a very low base in terms of infrastructure, in terms of the enablers of growth. Power, petrochemicals, we still import our energy, even though we're an oil producing country. Build your own refining capacity. Build your own petrochemicals industry. Increase productivity of our culture from 2 tons per hectare to 80 to 10 tons per hectare like Asia. Improve manufacturing on double digits easily. Governor Tombini, you're representing a phenomenal economy that had a great boom off of the commodity boom, but also in a sense a bus going from 7.5% growth and just struggling to hold on to 1% at the end of 2012. You've cut interest rates. People talk about the amount of investment needed to really realize the potential of the Brazilian economy. What can we see or expect in 2013 and what other tools do you have in your box to combat the downturn? Well, over the last two years, as you said, John, we had a slowdown. It was necessary. We were going too fast in 2010 over our potential. So we need to put a lead on this overheating that was happening. And we tightened policies. And then later on, we reversed beginning in August 2011. This reversal has been for a period of 12 months or so. And in Brazil, what we have last year was a year of slow growth. This year, the prospects, market participants, expect growth is likely above 3%. So it's doable. And what we see in Brazil is that even with this slowdown, we have record low unemployment in Brazil. We have created over a million jobs last year. As you know, our recent history, we have raised close to 40 million people to the new emergent middle class. We have reduced the level of poverty. People below the poverty line was to the order of 38%. Now it's around 20% in 10 years. So there's been a major transformation in the country. We have a much larger domestic market. We have a much larger middle class. And this will continue. The demand last year, in spite of this slowdown, grew to the order of 8% if when you see retail sales. So it's a strong growth in that respect. Going forward, we need to increase productivity. So there are numbers of initiatives in this direction, for instance, the reduction in the cost of energy, which has been a major cost for producing in Brazil. So starting now, we are reducing the cost of energy for businesses, also for households. And this will have an impact in reducing the cost of production in Brazil, increasing the return on capital. There are also other initiatives, such as the reduction in payroll taxes, also to increase productivity, and a number of initiatives to improve the quality of labor in my country. On top of that, there are a number of new announced public-private partnerships for this year and later in the areas, especially infrastructure, logistics, transportation, ports, airports. To help unlock the growth. To unlock the growth, to unlock the potential going forward. So I think we are well positioned to recover higher rates of growth as we move forward. As you know, particularly as an emerging markets editor, we've had this debate amongst our staff here in the competition that Brazil blazed by Mexico over the last 10 years. And lo and behold, we see Mexico coming on very strongly in the last two or three years. Mr. Minister Vidicaray, it'd be good to hear your thoughts here on this baseline growth of about 4%, and that's the projection probably for 2013, with the new government coming into place here. How will it differ in terms of economic policy? The exports, some 80%, go into the United States. The US is starting to recover. You've got good natural resources, of course, with the state oil giant, Pemex. But how will the policies change here to try to nudge up the growth in Mexico? Well, I think the two key concepts for describing President Enrique Peña Nieto's policies are in promoting growth are, first, stability. And the second is productivity. On stability, Mexico has achieved something which is very important. And although your question is about what we're going to change in regard to stability, my answer is what we're not going to change. It took a very long time, and it took a big effort by the whole of Mexico's society to achieve stability, low inflation, a balanced budget. We have a sound and solid banking system, and we have no major imbalances in our economy that we're going to keep. What we need to change is we need to address, just like in Brazil, we need to address the issue of productivity. Do you want to explain why Mexico is not growing more? Even though our fundamentals and our macro statistics look good, it's because we have low growth, very slow growth of our productivity. Interesting. Are the bricks dead, Governor? Everybody's been poo-pooing the bricks with the exception of China getting nearly 8% growth expected for 2013. But is the best of the bricks behind us? Is it going to be much more challenging for China and some of these other economies to sustain this growth, as you're moving ever closer to the middle income level? For China, I think for the foreseeable future, probably they still have the potential 7% to 8% growth. I think that kind of potential mainly come from domestic demand. And as people's income continue to increase, domestic consumption become very strong. And also, you see the urbanization for China is continue. Right now, just over the 50% threshold for urbanization, I think that will have a large potential for the foreseeable future. And also, you see in this process, import for China would be a huge market. Right now, the import for last year is already close to $2 trillion. I think that number will continue to grow. I think this China to grow and also it create the demand for the world market so that it would be a win-win situation for China, breaks as well as for the world economy. In fact, you've been carrying the world in terms of your commodity demand. As I know that we have two distinguished CEOs on the panel who have staked a lot on the emerging markets for future growth. I'll start with Muktarkant of Coca-Cola. You have an investment plan, which has a baseline of at least $30 billion going into the emerging markets. Which markets, Matar, have you focused on and why did you go in that direction? All emerging markets. We operate 1,004 factories in 207 countries. So I would say probably the quintessential international business. The model that we have, which is providing quality non-alcoholic beverages to consumers, is based on local investment. We invest local. We hire local. We distribute and sell locally, produce locally. And we pay taxes locally. And this is the model that we have. And yes, certainly, if you look at the past decade, growth in emerging markets has been higher on a factor of 3 to 1 versus Western markets, developed markets. That has certainly driven the world. The total base has come down a little bit. But that ratio of 3 to 1 still exists. The rates that are earmarked for 2013 growth rates in the world, 4.7 for emerging markets, 1.5 for Western markets. Yes, the emerging market growth rates, albeit we'd like them to be higher, are still carrying the world and will continue to carry the world. And it's simple because they're creating middle class. And they've taken 450 million people out of poverty in the last 10 years and created middle classes with those people. But it's the beginning of the journey. As the world goes to 5 billion middle class by 2030, I believe that number. It's a real number. It will happen. And that will give everyone, everybody, will rise with the sea. And I'm very excited with the prospects in emerging markets. But where we have earmarked investments, multi-year, three to five-year investment plans from Russia to Latin America, Mexico, Brazil, all of Latin America, China, all of Asia, Middle East, and Eurasia, totaling about 35 billion over a four to five-year period with the base of 2011. So we're in that investment mode, we're creating new plants, modernizing our facilities to be all lead facilities environmentally friendly around the world. And the exciting thing for me is not just the growth prospects, but today, for a business like mine, selling 3,000 products, 500 brands, non-alcoholic beverages from juices all the way to Coca-Cola. Innovation for us is now coming a lot from these emerging markets. I call it frugal innovation, because actually, the cost of that innovation is less. And so it's now all coming from the outside of the business. All the best ideas are outside, not the inside. And those great ideas are coming from the outside, like our plant bottle. The first beverage bottle made partially from plants fully recyclable was developed in India. Through the sugarcane industry, we use sugarcane molasses instead of fossil fuels for partially to make those bottles. That came from India, just one example. But I just want to finish with one thing. For a business like mine, I don't want anyone to get the impression there's no growth left in Western markets. It's just a lower rate of growth. Because if you just say, well, I'm only going to concentrate on your emerging markets, your business model doesn't work. And we are generating growth from every continent, albeit different rates of growth, lower growth versus much higher growth rates in emerging markets. And I believe there's a number of risks to everything I've said, and maybe we can tackle those later. Absolutely. So you're a Turkish background born in New York. Carlos Gomez, Lebanese background, born in Brazil. So you have the DNA within the emerging markets. Right? Both Renault and Nissan, very highly exposed to the emerging markets. And you're not done yet. Want to give us a taste of the latest investments, the success in China in terms of the numbers you're turning out, even have a new car, bringing back an old brand, Dotson, to go into these emerging markets at a lower cost entry point. Yeah. Well, obviously we're investing in practically all the bricks. And as you know, one plant, one car plant, is about $600 to $700 million. So they are major investments. It's about 5,000 people direct. It's about 25,000 people indirect, working in the logistics, in the supplier, et cetera. So these are major investments. China is a primary place to invest, because China is already the largest car market in the world. And even though it is the largest car market in the world, when you go to the fundamentals of the growth, about how many cars do you have per 1,000 inhabitants? This is a very simple statistic showing you how much more potential you have. In the United States, you have about more than 600 cars per 1,000 inhabitants. Average European ratio is about 500 cars per 1,000 inhabitants, which mean a country like Portugal or a country like Spain, you have about one car for two people. While China, it's less than 100 cars per 1,000 inhabitants. So there is absolutely no reason anybody is going to think that China is going to be below an average European country, which means that you're going to come, at a certain point in time, to about 500 cars per 1,000 inhabitants. And then you can see the potential of growth of the Chinese market, even though China is already the largest market in the world. You can apply the same logic to Brazil, to Russia, to India. In India, there is less than 50 cars per 1,000 inhabitants. In Brazil, there are about 200 cars per 1,000 inhabitants, as well as in Russia. There is a huge potential for growth. And we, as car manufacturers, want to position ourselves in all these markets. So we have major investment going on for both brands. But these are investments, which are not a one-way street. We invest the car, but we source the cars. I mean, all the parts needs to come from the country. And at the same time, we are putting engineering center in these countries, because in many countries, and I want to take one example, which is not represented here on the panel today, which is India, where we are hiring Indian engineers to develop particularly the car of the Datsun brand. What is a Datsun brand? These are the ultra-low-cost cars, which are going to allow us to access people who are today having motorcycle, tricycle, who are aspiring to buy a car, but cannot buy a car just because of the cost of the car. So we want to develop a car for them. So massive investment going on. And it's a trend for the long term. In fact, thanks very much. In the last three to four years, due to the financial crisis, we've gone to what I like to call the G7 world into a world of the G20, to have the greater voice of those around the table here of the emerging markets and a much closer dialogue with those of the industrialized world. It worked famously when you had the financial crisis and we needed some of the capital from China and some of the other markets of the world. Less so now when we have national problems that have national attention, which leads us to believe are we going to move from a G20 world to a G2 world, one dominated by the United States because of the size of the economy and its military might, and that of China with this very, very deep pockets, large population and sitting at the other side of the globe. There's two big weights in the world. Let's look at this video and we'll pick up that debate on the G20 to the G2 world as a result of the financial crisis. With the dust finally settling in the post-financial crisis world, a new global economy is coming into view. The age of rapid expansion may be over, easy money a thing of the past, export fuel booms harder to come by. These are the new challenges to overcome for the new champions of the emerging markets. Some will fail to deliver in this new reality, perhaps too slow to adapt, too slow to reform. Others will surprise us coming to the fore ahead of schedule. But all will do well to realize today's global economy is a very different place from the one in which the Brick Nations first came to the fore. Dark clouds remain over Europe. The confidence growth outlook remains weak, and that could pave the way for China and a rebound in the United States to assert even greater economic influence this year. China's economy is bigger than the other Brick Nations combined. The U.S. economy, despite its recent economic woes and political brickmanship, still nearly twice the size of China. The U.S. and China sit astride the world, our two dominant economic superpowers, creating a G2 world, if you will, two spheres of economic and political influence shaping the world from the East and the West. Emerging markets will feel the gravitation of push and pull of both. The economic performance of the U.S. and China and the interplay between them will go a long way to determining this year's economic growth prospects. So a very different world in 2013 than we had before the start of the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. Love to get a chief executives view of this. Carlos Cohn, is the world ready for the G2 and try to balance out those geopolitical interests today while still trying to hunt for investment and growth in these markets as a CEO? Well, I think, frankly, for many years people are saying, well, next year China is going to slow down, China is going to slow down. We have never seen a slow down. That means China continues to boom. 7.5% growth of the market this year, which was considered disappointing, was a great year. And I think 2013 is going to continue with 7.5 to 8% growth. Anyway, I can tell you that we are welcoming this because we cannot build enough capacity to follow the evolution of the market. There are more than 18 million cars sold in China in one year. I remember when we entered China, the market was at 2 million cars. So there have been a tremendous growth and this is gonna, I think, continue. So for me, 2013 on, all the bricks are gonna continue to develop at a higher rate. China with 7.5%, I think, forecast for this year. We don't have any doubt on this. I think Brazil is gonna come up with a much better number than last year. There have been some correction last year. Brazil were very bullish about Brazil in 2013. I think India also will do much better because of certain correction that took place in 2012. I don't think Russia is doing very well. I think what's happening is more corrections, launch of some transformational changes, but without any doubt, the trend is continuous growth, at least in the car industry. Governor Yungang, this is a very different world we live in now. You have a leadership transition taking place with Xi and Li, but the president premier. Social media is rampant in China. Expectations are high. You need growth to go out of the major industrial cities of five to 10 to 20 million people. Is this administration gonna be focusing on a tackling corruption and making sure that it's growth throughout the country, which is a major task? I think so. I think right now we are focusing the quality of the growth. And when I say that, I think we are going to pay more attention on the energy efficiency and environmental protection and also the sustainability of the growth. I think they have to continue the reform and open door process to make the structural adjustment. And so that you see they have this growth. As you said at the beginning, from agriculture to manufacture, now maybe there are a lot of growth in service industry. So that when you move ahead, you see you need really the structural reform and the structural adjustment and in order to increase the quality of the growth. So I don't think the growth rate is the most important problem to China now. The most important is the quality of the growth and the sustainability in the process. You see how you measure the environmental protection process and also the energy efficiency progress is very important. Minister, be good to get your thoughts in Mexico that it seems to have shifted a lot in the last six to months to a year. The conversation has changed. There's no longer a conversation about fighting the drug cartels in the streets of Mexico, fighting crime everywhere that you can focus on growth again. Has there been a profound shift and the fight on the battle against the drug cartels is nearly over and you can focus on growth from this point going forward? Well, of course violence is still a problem in Mexico and we've learned a lot over the last six years on how to fight crime. And I think the president Peña is using a more comprehensive approach not just by the use of force and more police. That should continue. But what is important is that Mexico is not only about violence and we now see by the attention that financial markets are giving to Mexico that the prospects for the Mexican economy are good and robust. Let me go back to what you were saying about the groupings. G20 vis-a-vis the G2 or the BRICS or the MIST. I think that these groupings of countries are useful only to a certain extent. They're a good start for the analysis but the reality is that all countries particularly emerging economies are quite different among themselves. The case of Mexico is quite different from other countries saying in Southern America because we are basically manufacturing and exporting country, whereas other countries like Chile or Brazil or Argentina are mostly commodity exporters. Therefore, the way we dealt with the crisis the way we dealt with the crisis was quite different. than other countries. And now we see the recovery in the US is a good thing for us. It's not a bad thing for us at all. And that's why we need to focus so much on our fundamentals and understand that we need to work on our own problems. We need to remain a stable economy. We need to remain an open economy. Mexico is one of the most open economies integrated to the global economy not only through trade but through financial markets. And we need not to lose our focus in the reforms such as energy reform, telecommunications reform, banking reform to work on the most important determinant of growth regardless of the cycle or the particular thing that's going in the global economy which is productivity. Good. Governor Sunuzi, what would you say that the biggest risk to Nigeria's growth? That you have life in Lagos which is booming, life in Abuja which is booming and big pockets in the south and the north which have very high poverty rates. And I know this is something that President Goodluck Jonathan has been trying to address along with his top flight economic team. How do you spread out the wealth quickly particularly with oil prices still remaining at $100 a barrel? I think the question links up to your earlier comment about the G2 country. And I think Africa as a whole needs to re-examine its relationship with China. And if you look at the Chinese relationship with Africa it's still largely a country that takes raw materials and exports finished goods. The bulk of the goods consumed in Africa are produced in China. Now the African policy maker needs to see China as competition for an African market. How do you produce those goods on African soil? How do you stop exporting tomato and importing tomato paste, exporting cassava and importing starch? How do you start basically moving up the value chain? Now I think the real challenge for Africa, Nigeria and other African countries is how do you invest in technical education education? How do you invest in infrastructure? And then how do you take advantage of that market? Because the real, if you look at China over the last 30, 40 years labor costs have gone up. So labor costs in China are much higher than Africa. What you have is a problem with productivity and a lack of investment technical education. That is really where we need to do. If we don't do that, we're not going to have growth that is stable and growth that is actually job creating. So you have this 5%, 6%, 7% growth in the midst of so much poverty until you actually get people to move into manufacturing, into processing and take advantage of the huge domestic market that Africa offers. Basically take away that market from China. Get the Chinese to come and produce on African soil rather than export from China. That is what Africa needs to do. Interesting. Governor Ying Gang, let's go to you and I'll come back to Mr. Tom Beanie. I was going to give the question to Mr. Tom Beanie, but that was too tempting to pass up. Please. I think that's a criticism of the Chinese going in for natural resources just to be clear. No. And criticism of Africa is not developing. Yeah, I think so. The African and China economic cooperation in the recent years, in the past two decades, has been by and large very, very good. It's a large market and I think as the governor said that as the labor costs in China increase and of course there will be some manufacturer move to Africa and elsewhere. I think they probably, as you pointed out, they should focus on the infrastructure of Africa and education is very important and I would love to see more manufacturer produced in Africa. I think that's certainly a correct direction. Good. Governor Tom Beanie, I'd love to get your thoughts on the pressure now that's on President Rousseff. She made a lot of promises coming in. She came after the era of President Lula with that very rapid growth. The criticism she has on the ground that she's too interventionist and she's not letting the private sector grow and the private sector is begging for better infrastructure in which to operate. Has she mismanaged this first term in office? Going forward? No, certainly not, John. What we have in Brazil is that we realize that in a couple of years when this global crisis behind us in a few years, hopefully, these countries that are now in trouble will be much more competitive than they were entering the crisis. They are addressing various long-term issues now. We're seeing export growth in Europe to the order of 20% in 12 months. So we need to be prepared for that. So she's addressing a number of issues in the recent past, like energy cost. She just announced a couple of days ago the details on this energy reduction cost. So preparing for a more productive economy to be more competitive in the future. She's also announced, I mean, the government has announced a number of tax reductions. As I mentioned, labor, payroll taxes have been reduced. So... In fairness, these are really behind the curve, though. I think you were lulled into believing that China and some of the other developing countries would continue to buy all the commodities and it came to a crashing halt during the financial crisis. Well, you have to do this. You have to address these long-term issues, right? And I have to prepare for a stronger competition in the future. And in this way, she's addressing many important long-term issues that we had in Brazil. So better now than then later. So in a few years, I mean, this economy will be much more competitive than it was. So I think it's reducing production cost is a good thing. And certainly the private sector will benefit from that. Lowering the tax burden, which is a major issue in our country for many years, is also a desirable thing. We are addressing that. Preparing, qualifying our labor, also very good. She's putting a lot of weight also in the private, probably private partnerships. So she wants more private sector involvement in rebuilding and enhancing infrastructure in Brazil. So I think all the initiatives are geared towards having a country and economy more competitive in the future. And we will start to see that as we speak this year. Good. Motorkan, I'd love to bring a very sensitive issue onto the table here. I know it's been a challenge in Nigeria with some government studies looking at the level of corruption. Huge issue in Russia. We've talked about this in India. People are very frustrated in China because of the level of corruption in the big rail contracts over the last five years. How do you manage this as a global CEO with one that has to report on a quarter by quarter basis to a board? Continue revenue growth, but also try to wait for these developing economies to clear out the old bad habits of the past? Well, first, I'd say this. Luckily, I'm not in a sector which is called turn strategic by many governments. In fact, all governments. So they, you know, whenever we wanna go and invest somewhere, we're very welcome, whether it is on the coast of China or on the Central Asia or whether it's any country in Latin America or Indonesia, anywhere in the world of emerging markets. And therefore, we haven't encountered any issue and where we do encounter issues have very strict internal guidelines, which we, every one of our 770,000 employees, system employees around the world adhere to with the signature of a code of business conduct by everyone. And again, you know, you can have systems that fail that, you know, will be, but we absolutely, absolutely, it has not been in any way a deterrent to our growth. I'd say, you know, experience over the last 10 years in Africa shows that African countries, one of the reasons why Africa is doing well is that it is making meaningful steps in governance, improvement of governance across the whole continent of Africa. And in fact, we also have two different worlds in Nigeria right now. We have a very expert economic team. You did a study over the last 10 years, $30 billion of oil concessions going into the wrong hands in Nigeria. And this is the complaint some of the people living in poverty have. Is this government going to finally get to the bottom of what has held back Nigeria in the past and you have the spectacular growth? Is this the opportunity to do that? Well, the reality is I think we're beginning to recognize and the government has to recognize that some of the social insecurity of the country is at least partly a result of this level of misgovernance. But having said that, beyond the headlines, there are a number of other headlines that the world doesn't take a note of. Take the banking crisis that happened in Nigeria. We investigated the banks. We found that CEOs have been taking money from the banks. We recovered the money and we put CEOs in jail. We are the only country that has done that. Okay, nobody talks about that, okay? I mean, your bank CEOs are all sitting clean and taking bonuses as basically those who mismanage banks are out of their jobs and some are facing trial. Some have gone to jail and we've recovered assets. Now, so there is progress. There is a long way to go. Certainly there's a lot that has been done in the oil sector. The bunkering has to stop and some of it, the fraud in the subsidy regime has to stop. There has to be a general commitment across the board on zero tolerance for corruption, but there is progress. We just have to continue moving. Secondly, Africa is 54 countries and it's very easy to think of Africa as Nigeria and South Africa. There are countries like Botswana, like Mauritius, that have made significant progress on governance. Okay, improvements in Angola, improvements in Ghana. What's happening in Senegal? We need to make sure that we don't just look at the four big economies of Africa, South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt and Algeria and say that is Africa. There are 50 other countries that are making progress and that are growing very fast. A lot of work has gone in Ethiopia, in the coffee area with leather, a lot of work in Mozambique and we need to make sure that we don't lose sight of that. Good. Carlos Cohen, you've gone into Russia. You think it's a very good market for yourself. Prime Minister Medvedev here in Davos said we're not going to go back to the past. We have to proceed and go beyond oil right now. Huge consumer market, 140 million consumers, huge corruption problem as well. But you made big sizable investments. Well, Moutar mentioned the fact that luckily he's not considered as strategic. So I would say luckily we are considered as strategic. So because when you're considered strategic, you're dealing at the highest level of the government and usually when you deal at the highest level of the government and the government pay a lot of attention to what you're doing. If there is any corruption, you are absolutely not concerned. I can tell you that in our case, we are heavily involved in Russia. We're heavily involved in India. We're heavily involved in China. We're heavily involved in Brazil. And every time these are major investment, a lot of employment, usually you are dealing at the top level of the government. And because of this, they follow the progress of what you're doing. They follow your investment and your hiring. And you're spared a lot of trouble in terms of corruption. Interesting. Very, very interesting. Thanks very much for that. I have just a round of questions very quickly for the panel on natural resources that I want to open the floor to questions. So if we can have the microphones come out. And if you can just give me a signal with your hand, I'll make sure I call upon you. We have an incredible revolution taking place in the energy market, as this panel well knows and knows in the audience. Pre-salt, deep water drilling taking place in Brazil right now. The governor talked about the potential of not only the natural resources that Nigeria has. East Africa has found huge fields of shale gas which is going to give a big boom to the eastern half of Africa. We know what Mexico possesses. We know that China has shale gas in the pipeline. It has the ability to develop it in the future. Let's talk about some of the key decisions that need to be made in some of your markets right here. I'd like to start in Mexico, Luis, and the ability or the desire to take in foreign investment for Pemex. I know it's been a very sensitive issue. It's the national state oil company that people have a great deal of pride in. But the production is going to start dropping off. It doesn't have that sort of global capital from the international oil companies or the national oil companies from the emerging markets. How will your administration handle that, do you think? Well, President Peña Nieto, maybe before he was a candidate, he stated very clearly, Mexico needs to be a lot less ideological about how we handle energy. We need to be a little more practical and more modern in our approach. That does not mean selling Pemex or selling our reserves. But that means allowing for the changes in the legal framework to allow for more private participation in the oil and gas sector. So far, geology to Mexico has been a lot better than politics around energy to Mexico. And we have tremendous assets that we need to exploit for the benefit of the Mexican people. And President Peña has announced energy reform to be one of his priorities for this year. And actually, in Mexico, the government, along with the leadership of the three main political parties, have signed a broad political agreement with a schedule for reforms. And energy reform is on schedule for this year to happen. And it will never be easy to carry out energy reform in Mexican politics. But I think the conditions are there. And more important, the need is there and the opportunity is there. Interesting. Pre-salt, deep water, oil is hard to find. Petrobras is finding it very difficult to find it at a reasonable cost. How long do you go in pursuit of this right now with the other oil and gas opportunities coming on stream, even in Argentina, with the shale gas? Well, we are moving forward. Of course, now we are producing close to 2 million barrels a day. I think the press outlayer 200,000 barrels a day. So it has a reserve of something around 15.5 barrel equivalent billions in this new oil reservoir. So it's a lot of wealth that needs to be explored over the coming years. I don't think Brazil is in a rush to develop that. Brazil has, as you know, a very clean energy matrix, 75% hydroelectric, 30%, 25% thermoelectric. We have four big hydroelectric now beginning to operate, while we're still finishing up, like Belomonte, Telespiris, Girao, Santo Antônio. So between now and 2015, we'll increase our energy from hydroelectric by, say, 15%, 16%. And until 2021, we might increase by 50% the capacity. So we have a very diversified source of matrix of energy sources in Brazil. And we want to continue to develop that in the future to meet our needs. Governor Yangang, the folks that I live with in the Middle East really are very happy that China's continuing to grow, because they love the fact that you're going to be buying their oil for the next 20 years. But we could have quite a revolution with all the shale fields that you have in China. And to have your own domestic production, serving a large part of your domestic needs you have the money to invest in that stream because of the great reserves you have. What happens next? As far as I know that in China, we are in the early stage of this development. In terms of shale gas and shale oil, the geographic structure is more complicated and also is much deeper than the United States. I think in terms of technology and also how to develop in this area, they are still in the early stage of research and do some preparation. OK. Finally, Governor Sunusi, you talked about the reforms you're doing in the oil sector already. It's the biggest challenge right now, and not just for Nigeria, but the violence we've seen by the terrorist threats in Mali, Algeria, hits in Nigeria, Kenya, and some of the other countries of the 54 that you talked about. Managing this, it doesn't derail your plans for oil and gas development because you've seen some very random strikes over the last 10 years, off and on against the sector. Well, the recent issues around Mali and the Maghreb basically affect the North, which is not the oil producing area. I think what has changed significantly in the thinking of government, and this is what you get from President Jonathan, is a recognition that any kind of model that is based long term on selling oil to China or to the United States is bad economics. OK. So you've got to develop these resources and then move up the value chain. Right now, the largest export of the United Kingdom to Nigeria is petroleum products. And we're all producing country. A country of 167 million people, one of the biggest consumers of petrol. Build your own refineries. The petroleum industry bill, there's been a lot of focus on fiscal terms, but the real focus of that bill is to move these oil and gas resources into the value chain, move gas into power, into gas-based industries like fertilizer. This is 167 million people. You don't need to export to China or to export to England. Export to Nigerians. So it's about producing locally and turning that into a basis for industrialization. Refineries, petrochemicals, gas-based industries. That is the future for Nigeria. Perfect. Very interesting. Let's take some questions from the floor. We have about 15 minutes. If you like any questions for any of our panelists here. Let's not be shy. Please. If you can just identify yourself and then direct it to one of our panelists, I'd be grateful. Thanks. I'm Osman Ula Ghai. I'm a columnist for a Turkish newspaper. And my question is all to all the emerging market representatives here. The ongoing problems in the rich countries, the low growth, extreme monetary expansion, perhaps protectionist tendencies, is that a concern for the emerging markets? I think it's a question for Mr. Tombini. I know President Rusev, thank you very much, has complained about the potential currency wars. And Carlos, I'd like you to jump in on this afterwards because of the yen exposure as well. Is that a lot of political positioning, or is that a stronger real? One of the reasons why you had the 7.5% growth all the way tumbling down to 1%. Well, this issue was raised in 2010, a few years ago. I think it's more update than ever the kind of liquidity that is going on in international markets with major central banks and all the activity we have seen. But from the Brazilian perspective and from the central bank of Brazil's perspective, these wars that were mentioned and which are currently ongoing, we have learned how to operate in this environment. We have taken measures in 2011, 2012 to cope with this environment of large levels of liquidity. So what we have done is that we still see Brazil a very open and friendly destination for capital. We are the third largest destination as far as FDI is concerned for indirect investment. The number just released yesterday by the United Nations. But the composition flows have changed because of the measures we have imposed. So now the flows that we see in Brazil are much more stable. So we have learned to cope, to operate in this new environment that he just mentioned. Great. Carlos, your perspective from a yen-based operation with Nissan and some of the complaints you've heard from the other emerging markets, the Russians were complaining about the same accusing the United States of artificially keeping the dollar low. Yeah, well, it's very hard by any means to accuse Japan of trying to do these kind of things. Statistically, 2007 before the crisis, the average yen to the dollar was more than 110. It has been an average for 10 years. All of a sudden after the crisis, the yen was one of the currency which appreciated the most. And frankly, there is absolutely no logical explanation as an industrial inside Japan about why all of a sudden your currency is going to increase by about 40% evaluation compared to the dollar, while, for example, the one decreased compared to the dollar and other currencies. So what's happening now is not the fact that the Japanese government is giving support to the industry. Japanese government is trying to reduce the handicap that has been building for the last five years on industries in Japan. That's what's happened. We are today at 90 yen to the dollar. 90 yen to the dollar. We're coming from 112 yen to the dollar in 2007. Yes, it's better than 75 yen to the dollar if you want a go. But we are still in what I consider a handicap territory, while in which companies are still struggling in Japan to try to remove this handicap. Now, the question is, what is a neutral position from the currency? I said it many times. It's 100. So saying that Japan is getting into a currency war, in my opinion, do not respect the facts of what happened as long as you take a little bit of history of what happened to the yen for the last years. How are you handling this internally at Coca-Cola with all that exposure to all these markets? What I want to do is really, if I understood the question right, in terms of the very low growth rates that are here in the Western markets, how's that going to all impact all the emerging countries and the growth? And what I would say to that question would be, of course, the world would be a much better place if the growth rates were higher in the West, and that would push the growth rates even higher than 4.7% to probably 6%, 7% back in the emerging world, and the total world would be a much better place. Nevertheless, though, even these growth rates in the emerging markets of 4.7% on average, higher in China, of course, and hopefully getting higher in Latin America and Africa, are for sure going to create huge internal demand because they're going to lift more people out of poverty and into middle class. And I think that is a very big phenomena. The youngest billion in Africa, they're going to be one of the biggest contributors to middle class in the next 10 years across most nations. And therefore, I think, as China is trying to change the economy into a more internal demand led economy, all of the BRIC countries are going to be doing the same, moving from tradeable production to services. And other countries down the chain are going to move into tradeable goods that can be exported. The biggest danger, though, for all of this is going to be the current unemployment of the youth particularly, straining the social fabric if we don't do something about that, and also certainly the issues around sustainability, climate change, the volatility that that brings is much bigger volatility than currency, I think. I just heard the president of the Philippines talking at lunch saying, Philippines contributes 3% to the carbon in the world, and we're getting the biggest impact on climate change. And there's a big thing going on in the world where things are being exported around the world, such as the impact of climate change through storms and typhoons and floods and droughts and everything else that is causing a huge dislocation in the world growth rates. And I think that has to be really dealt with in a much better way, much more responsible way than we've been dealing with it together, as what I always say, the golden triangle, which is government, business, and civil society. We're not doing justice to that problem. And then finally, I think the youth unemployment, if we are not able to do something about that, that is going to dislocate the trends, I believe, through social breaking of the social fabric in the emerging world, as well as in the Western world. That is a very serious problem, bigger than currency issues, bigger than any noise that may be around trade wars, bigger than volatility on currency, bigger than volatility on commodities, although climate change, of course, has an impact on commodities too. Good. Governor Sunici, you want to make a comment? Yes. My comment is that I think as a central banker, we run a big risk of not learning from the mistakes of the past. I mean, this idea that central bankers can just print money and then fight a recession does not basically recognize the limits of monetary policy. What we supposedly provide is a stable environment. The major fiscal and structural changes that need to be made have to be made. The idea that the Fed prints money, the Japanese central bank prints money, the European central bank prints money, and then you have this fake growth that basically goes into capital markets going up, all prices going up, and we think we've solved underlying problems of competitiveness and structural issues is a very bad idea. And I think a few years down the line, this is going to hit the world again. Commodity prices will crash, stock markets will crash, banks will collapse, because we've not addressed the fundamental problems of productivity. You've been loosed for too long, as you're saying. I think the central bankers are overestimating the power of monetary policy and taking on too much responsibility. And I think there's going to be a crisis of expectation and we're going to face reality very soon. Interesting. Louise? On the issue of the exchange rate, John, we frequently hear about exchange rate as a competitiveness policy tool. But let's remember that from an emerging market perspective, we should think first of volatility of international capital flows when you think of exchange rate policy. And we've learned of the years that having a free flexible exchange rate is the best policy to act as a buffer of external shocks. And we, even though the prospects are good in the case of Mexico, we remain to be a small growing but small economy in a very open and volatile international financial markets. So our priority is not to set the exchange rate in a particular level because one half of the economy is going to be happy, the other is not going to be happy. But what is important is to keep, to use the exchange rate market as a buffer and have the shocks absorbed, being absorbed there rather than in the real sector of the economy. Okay, good. Governor Yungan, I wanted to ask you a question about the level of reserves. We're looking at about $3 trillion in China. It's extraordinary what the coffers look like. We see Chinese companies going around the world now and making acquisitions picked up from the question we had here from the floor. What is the political backlash gonna to be raised on some of the acquisitions? We've seen it, the tensions rise because of the acquisitions that China's made, purchase of commodities in Latin America and Nigeria. Politically, do you think that you have to tread very carefully with your other hat on as a sovereign fund manager about the acquisitions of the Chinese companies inevitably would go out to make in some of the developed markets of the world? I think first they have to emphasize this is a market economy. And if acquisition or merger is market-oriented from a firm, from actually market demand, that's, we have to say that in this market economy that's very natural. If you see there are some deals, it has to be beneficial on both parties. Otherwise, you see, like my colleague said, that anything defined as a strategic, heavily involved government improvement, right? So I think if we emphasize the market-oriented principle, that is very good. We have to play according to this rule. And the second they really have in this process, we have to consider the sustainability of the energy and also raw material in this growth of the global growth. Everybody want to have a faster growth. We're talking about emerging market, but really we have to calculate the growth we're talking about, how much energy it needed, how much raw material it needed, whether this earth would be sustainable for the plan that each place is doing. I think we have to have a coordinated thinking and also a coordinated policy if something happened, it should be win-win situation for the buyer and for the seller and also create jobs for the local community. If that happened, why not? But on the other hand, you see, you really have to consider the impact of this very rapid growth and demand for raw material and energy. Which China has mapped out very well. We're almost out of time. Would you want to go to Carlos to go in one more time to get, because Muhtar, you talked about the risk of youth unemployment as a real time bomb for us. What would you say for the emerging market specifically now, because you've put so much money in the stakes of the two companies you manage on the line of the emerging markets? What's the greatest risk to emerging markets that we should all watch out for in your view as a chief executive in 2013? Frankly, I don't think we can say there is one risk for all the emerging market. I think you have to take them one by one because the situation is very different. Situation in China, very different situation in Brazil or in India or in Russia. So I would not say there is one common risk for all the emerging market. I think you have to take them one by one and the risk for each one of them is completely different. I mean, if I can take one particular country that I know very well, which is Brazil, I would say Brazil today is facing many challenges even though it has huge potential but between the challenges is competitiveness of its industry or at least in certain sector of the industry like for example the steel industry, it's not competitive and it defies logic because Brazil has everything to be competitive on steel. It has iron ore, it has technology, it has competition but it's not just steel iron ore shipped to Korea coming back to Brazil and up costing less than steel both in Brazil. There is something abnormal in it. So there are some sectors, some sectors like this where you have problem of competitiveness and also the fact that there are still too much tax on some goods. I mean the cars in Brazil are between the highest tax in the world. So the risk in Brazil would be not to be able to little by little lower the tax while the country is developing and at the same time encouraging more competition and removing some of the obstacle to reinforce the competitiveness of Brazil. So I would say China is a completely different issue, India is a completely different issue. So I would say for example, the governor mentioned the fact that China is trying to manage the resources in a much more effective way and taking care of the emissions and taking care of the quality of the development, completely different kind of issues. So I don't think we can put all the emerging market in one packet. Okay, because of time we'll have to end it there. I appreciate the input from the floor and the time that we did have a phenomenally good debate on the challenges for 2013. I appreciate your time this afternoon and joining us. Again, the program will air at 1700 CET all worldwide. So just use that as your barometer. I think that would be 1600, 1500 GMT right at this time. Thanks again, a nice round of applause to our panelists.