 Good morning and welcome to the week ahead video with me, David Madden. Today's date is Friday the 13th of September 2019 and the time has just gone 11 of 55 British summertime and I'm looking ahead to next week Which is Monday the 16th of September through Friday the 20th of September, but before we have a look at What's going on next week? Let's just take a look at what's happened in the past couple of days Yesterday, we have we heard from the ECB We had a industry cut on the deposit rate and we had a QE program announced for early September The European Central Bank also lowered its growth guidance 2019 and 2020 and it lowered its Inflation outlook for the next for this this year and the next two years and Mario Draghi the head of the ECB also called For a diss additional stimulus in terms of fiscal stimulus It's a it's a is this is not the first time he's called on governments to bring in fiscal stimulus So it seems to me the Mario Draghi is knowing knows that Monetary policy alone can't solve all the euro's own problems He's also had an aggressive QE system scheme in place before another one is going to restart in early November It seems to me that Mr. Draghi goes right. We can't have a government bond by a scheme that will last forever So we just need we just we need additional assistance The fact that the ECB lowered their interest rate It's obviously going to be a bit of an issue could influence all the central banks around the world I'll be talking about the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England later on in this video So the so what we saw yesterday was initially a fairly sharp sell-off in both in the euro against major currencies The British pound and the US dollar, but we seem to have actually kind of found the floor and the market that bounce back And that is also and we're seeing euro dollar high on the day higher on the session It would appear that some of the some some of the kind of negative news or the double shop date from yesterday It was already factored in so we've seen a bit of a rebound in the euro against against the US dollar We've seen equity markets are higher after the announcement But when you consider if interest rates are further negative territory, that's a positive rate And we've had the announcement of a stimulus package in equity markets in the euro zone and that higher What's also going on in global financial markets the US and China their trading relationship. It's a bit better It's not a me. It's still far from fixed But it's a bit better and the latest we've heard late last night from President Trump He stated that he's opened the idea of having an interim deal with China There's obviously Mr. President Trump is known to change his mind quite quickly over the time being US and US and Chinese relations are on fairly good stead Work where we saw the US equity markets finish higher in the US last night. They're being called higher this morning Also, what's going on is Brexit It's a lot of volatility in the British pound this morning Starting as rallied considerably against the US dollar and the euro also So that's the palm is doing very well There's a belief that the possibility of a no deal of Brexit as it has diminished. There are some stories going around this doesn't appear to be a In the greed a fully agreed upon narrative One of the stories is John Birkel MP and speaker in the House of Commons said he will ensure to use Creativity to ensure that Prime Minister Boris Johnson doesn't Ignore a law that was recently brought in to vent a no deal Brexit There's also been conflicting in reports about the Democratic Unionist party There's a report to one of the newspapers saying that the DUP are about to soften some of their red lines There's also that I've also heard DUP MP saying that that rubbishing that report Things are going I said a bit kind of back and forth in relation in relation to that side of the brexit negotiations and talks But nonetheless the British pound is as well. Is that is pushing higher? Against the US dollar and the euro Taking a look having a chat now about what's going on next week On Wednesday, we have CPI numbers out of the UK These are gonna be fairly important in the context of how the UK economy is holding up We recently had fairly decent unemployment numbers and growth and earnings figures from the UK So some aspects of the British economy economy are doing quite well despite the fact is all these kind of Despite the fact construction is a negative growth Manufacturing isn't doing particularly well and services is just about getting by and not to mention a lot of headlines about doom and gloom But some pockets of the British economy are still holding up Inflation from the last reading is that was actually Higher than the Bank of England's target twice target So the demand is still reasonably strong in the UK Looking ahead on Wednesday. We also have an update from the Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in in June There's a lot of talk about rate a rate cut or a large rate rate cut or a large rate cut in September President Trump has been screaming for a for lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve Keep mine. We saw the European Central Bank Keep their base rate the refining rate on change But the deposit rate has has been lowered and they're gonna have a QE scheme that could influence the vet could influence the Federal Reserve But that being said all employment's very low wages are solid in the US And the most in most recent core inflation figures from the US suggest demand is strong So there's an argument for the Fed to actually do nothing or just have a 25 basis points of rate cut Looking head to Thursday Bank of England industry decision given that Brexit is still up in the air It's it's it's highly unlikely the bank of England will change their monetary policy It seems to me that their monetary policy is very much bound bound up until that Brexit has been has been decided upon For whatever kind of brexit is delivered The Bank of England should they're in the event of a nobody of brexit and in the event things are looking quite economically bad for the UK The Bank of England would like to like to have the tools at a disposal to address caught interest rates or got on the route Or the stimulus package. So I suspect the Bank of England will just be sitting on the sidelines commenting on How commenting on the state of affairs of brexit and how the volatility in the British pound I'll quickly run through if some of the other other headlines are stories that are due out next week and then talk about And then talk about and then have a look at some of the major markets. So starting off on Monday, one of the 16th We have numbers in China Fix fixed asset investment industrial production and retail sales. This is going to give us a gauge of how How fast the Chinese economy is slowing down I Keep mind the most recent industrial production figures fell to the lowest reading since the credit crisis So that gives an indication of how things are going in that regard on Tuesday We have the kind of OPEC plus as it's called meet with the announcement from OPEC plus in relation to So traders will be listing out for any kind of commentary in relation to what kind of production If any kind of changes they're going to introduce on Tuesday, we have first quarter numbers from FedEx The U.S. Delivery personal delivery company. The group is often seen as a barometer for For for demand in the U.S. Through the parts of delivery business people are buying consuming a lot of goods They're using that they were using them. They will be using the services of All FedEx Looking at Wednesday CPI we have Eurozone CPI coming out final reading of August CPI reading from the Eurozone We are first the first half results from King Fisher. They're in the home improvements business They've also got a new CEO coming into the fold in the next number of months Fed Reserve meeting on Wednesday as a covered We have first half figures from next and Next I've actually Had a pretty good start to the year in terms of the Q1 results and the company apparently is quite well prepared for a No-deal Brexit as mentioned Bank of England meeting on Thursday And on Friday, we've Canadian retail sales and we also Canadian inflation figures coming out on Wednesday So as promised, I'll take a look at some of the major markets as a first-ever look at the The British pound versus the US dollar so wider trend very much of the downside, but we saw a sharp move higher last Last week this candle here this daily candle here as good looks looks to me like a hammer formation So the market is bouncing back very both but followed by a very bullish candle here The mark has been pressing higher Failing to be a few days in rope were to closed above the fifth day moving average this blue line here and today I pressed on higher to a level not seen since late July So if you could hold above the fifth day moving average this blue line here on the and the pound versus US dollar We could look to get a press up towards this zone here in around one spot 26 and Move to the downside Move back below the fifth of the moving average could take us back towards 122 and a slice of break below that I could take us back down sub 120. I take a look now. What's going on with the footsie? So the footsie like global stock markets has broadly moved higher in the last number of weeks Yesterday got to a level last seen in early August. So things are moving to the upside But they're moving quite slowly to be perfectly honest And you can have upward moving any solid move to the upside in the British pound tends to curtail or cap the footsie's game But nonetheless if you can hold above this region here in around 7,300 306 if you hold above that we could press on higher from here and should we take out the 7400 metric we could be looking at targeting this old year around 7,470 If you do have a slice of break below the 7,300 region we could be looking at any effect towards the turdy moving average this red line here and that comes into play around 7,210 So the footsie isn't please isn't it's an okay shape It's cut to be above its foot. It's dirty moving average But it's another good shape as the tax or the S&P 500 which you can want to in a second So you can see here stellar move to the upside in the tax where that level is not last seen in late July If you continue to press on higher from here, we could really get retesting this the old year 12,600 or 12,660 move the downside should we see a bit of support commit should we drift lower support to be found from the 12,300 region or perhaps from this yellow line here the water to moving average and that comes to play just north of 12,100 I'll take a look now finally at the S&P 500 And the S&P 500 even though cash trading in the US hasn't began yet. We're calling it around 3,021 22 so we're talking about not too far away from a record high in the S&P 500 So it really gives indication of a bullet sentiment days in the US If you continue to press on higher from here, we could be looking at heading heading up towards the 3,030 40 marks one and support heading into into a Create look we're looking like it. We're going to create continue to create further odd for further record highs If you do drift back 3,000 a big psychological number that area might provide some support And but if you do have a fairly sizable sell-off support could be found from this blue line here Which is the fifth of the moving average You can see it act as a resistance on a few occasions recently So might act to support in the near term But there's no guarantee about that and that comes to play at 2,947 Just before I finish up if you have any comments to make on this video or any of the other videos We've made here at CMC. 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