 Hi, my name's Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comma welcome to this week's applying demand for a technical analysis if you're new welcome and if you are returning welcome back, and I really do hope that you are finding my weekly analysis videos useful and You're seeing some benefit in your trading if you are new just in case you don't know you probably won't but the Charts, I'm gonna be analyzing our In the description box below. There's links in there as well as links to some other Educational material as well and what I'll do start doing from now on as well for everyone is posting the news links in the In if not the description box the comment box. So we start off as we always do Analyzing the fundamental analysis so into the coming week It says trading economics says final estimates of US first quarter GDP growth will be keenly watched Yes, it will and that's really due to The potential if they're looking at the potential effect of the Trump China trade war So if it's having an effect having the effect on everybody really but it's definitely going to be watched because of that and also it may add to the narrative of a US Session or slowdown at least they go go through the contraction phase of the economic cycle before they actually get to recession They can't just jump to a recession So if that starts if the economy US economy starts to slow down then it adds pressure I guess on the Fed to cut interest rates and Which is pretty much I won't say what happened You know last week, but they are very dovish to Fed and the expectation for a rate cut is imminent in the next Meeting and I'll get into that in a sec. Anyways, alongside personal income and outlays and housing data elsewhere important releases include UK final first quarter GDP growth That's gonna be important consumer sentiment and current account Eurozone flash Inflation rate that's definitely gonna be important and business survey Japan industrial output retail sales and Jobless rate against some important stuff going on there also as well Not mentioned in there is gonna be the New Zealand official cash rate An RBNZ rate statement. They're actually expected to hold rates They are in a cutting cycle, but I think this time around the expectation the forecast anyway is on forex factories that they will potentially hold rates this week and then you got Canada GDP as well month-from-month GDP to come out so pretty busy week news wise and Just getting to a little bit of news what happened in the past week and potentially what's going on the future So trade is this week bit on the Fed rate cut as in record setting numbers So Wednesday saw a record for trading in the Fed funds future mark futures markets Which tries to anticipate where the Federal Reserve is heading with interest rates, you know So what you can do is go to CME group comm and again I post this link in the description box or the comment section below and This gives Pretty much an estimation of the probabilities of a potential rate cuts ease no change or a hike And this is what the the financial institutions and the bets pretty much are so there's a hundred percent Probability at the moment that the Fed or they're betting anywhere that the Fed are gonna ease Right, so hundred percent of financial institutions think that there's gonna be an ease now It depends on how much they are going to ease is it gonna be by you know, 25 point two five or 25 basis points or point two five percent or is it gonna be by 50 percent 50 percent point five percent or 50 basis points, right? It's just depends that's a smaller cut. That's the larger cut So they're factoring in an ease and interest rates I guess when central banks want to cut interest rates is it cheapens the currency Which is what you're gonna obviously see and what you've probably seen this week of the pot the dollar Sorry selling off this weekend on the expectations of a potential rate cut now It just depends on how much the Fed may cut by right Again also in the week ahead from the forex.com website again, this just basically ties into something that I wanted to say about Interest rates and cutting interest rates You shouldn't necessarily be focused only on shorting dollar because I tell you know a lot of the traders in our mentor in the group Trading 180 group is that it's a comparison all central banks pretty much went a cheaper dollar in it all pretty much kind and this just You know backs up what I was I've been saying for the past, you know Few months at least and It's basically Fawad Riza Quasada, I think that's how you pronounce the name says this week was all about major central banks as the race to zero and beyond resumed with the Fed and European Central Bank signaling potential cuts So ECB signaled some stimulus potential stimulus this week while the Bank of England was slightly less hawkish Then they had been expected and that was because inflation came out less than expected RBA governor hinted at the prospects of loosening monetary policy. They've already cut right After more 25 basis point cut earlier in the month So they're all cutting in the Bank of Bank of Japan was surprisingly dovish as well. So, you know, they're all all dovish even the Swiss National Bank are talking about the Swiss franc being overvalued and you know potentially having to intervene in the market So I say that to basically say this that the Federal reserve even though they're cutting they're not, you know, the US is not the worst currency out of you know, the major currencies So a weaker dollar it spells trouble for everybody else if you know, I mean, so yes the dollar might be selling off but it puts pressure on the other central banks to also weaken their currencies even further and if you want to know Exactly what I'm talking about when it comes to interest rates and inflation you really should know about interest rates and inflation because this is really what moves the markets as well as you know gross domestic products free Fundamental analysis course and it pretty much goes over interest rates inflation Hopefully not in a too boring way. That's gonna, you know, kind of your eyes are gonna glaze over and you know You're gonna switch off after, you know, the first five minutes or so But it's important that you do know this stuff because this is really what moves the markets is not, you know Hammer a hammer candle work, you know support or resistance or an engulfing. That's just press press It's fundamentals and sentiment what is risk sentiment is what moves the markets anyways getting on to the The charts as everybody likes to be interested in the charts and we start off as we always do on the Dow Jones Dollar Index and the Dow Jones dollar index this week Pretty much from last week We were coming up into this potential supply zone and potentially gonna set off and we were waiting for what was gonna happen on Wednesday with the FOMC meeting There's many of you aware prices came up on the Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday and we're down into this demand zone Yes, we put demand zones on a chart demand zones are just indicators A level of potential value and proven value in the past Obviously the tone of the central bank. There was no demand at this area here and into obviously Friday Prices have come down into here and now we have to see if there is potential Value depending on what price action does around this area at this area of demand for the dollar for the Dow Jones dollar index and the Dow Jones dollar index is just a measure of US dollar strength against the major currencies like the euro the yen the pound and the Australian dollar so if we go to the charts and Go to the Dow Jones dollar index We've touched this level several times so from a supply and demand perspective This isn't necessarily the Best zone to get long at it's an option. We've touched it once twice is okay But I think there probably may be more potential selling off to the downside, but we could see obviously Prices actually come up as well and if we do see some dollar strength Or basically profit-taking we use the dollar index Maybe some sort of bullishness or demand and we would look to the dollar crosses and look for demand in You know price action on those currency pairs as Confluence so we could see basic prices move higher And if they do this is a nice area to look for buy trades on the Dow Jones dollar index I'm a buyer of the of the dollar regardless of whether the Fed are cutting rates And and the kind of negative sentiment against the dollar Anyway, doesn't mean I'm gonna be a necessarily a buyer here or here, but I will look to buy, you know the dollar yen dollar Swiss As I think again the Dow Jones and the dollar is Definitely a buyer regardless of the monetary policy of the Fed So if you do want to be a buyer just look for some sort of a price action that confirms an entry on any of your Dollar crosses if prices do come down to this area then then look for again some buying Moving on to the dollar yen It's a dollar yen last week prices again The dollar sold off Yen Strengthened again. We are in a risk-off environment and the end strengthens in a risk-off environment as well So you had prices come down to this, you know, it's 107 there abouts demand zone So we're looking at updating the charts on the dollar yen You have to now include some supply Where are we here we go? Supply zone right there Again looking for potential buy trades if the Dow Jones dollar index starts to you know increase And so I'll see some bullish price. They should reflect hopefully on the Dollar index if not and you're looking to keep continually sell the dollar Into you know the following week or potential coming weeks You'd have to wait for really price action to kind of come up into this area before looking at some sell trades But decent area to look for some longs providing that you know risk is less off and You know the dollar for me is starting to look like a like an absolute bargain. It just depends on Sentiment at the moment and whether the market also agrees with me But there are obviously telltale signs. I'm waiting for before looking at buying so Decent buyer right now and if you're looking to sell after this Pretty much heavy down trend Over the past couple of months should be looking at that area there as a level of supply proven value for the Japanese yen before getting short Looking at the dollar Swiss Again dollar Swiss was just selling off as well So there was no demand here after pretty much the Federal Reserve said they were gonna be potentially cutting rates or they indicated that they potentially might and Prices again, there's no demand at this demand zone prices kept, you know Continuing to the downside and I've been asked about pending orders and this is one of the reasons why I don't trade pending orders It's simply because you know, you could get moments like this Right the market needs to prove at some point that there is demand here You can't say you can't you can if you want to but using pending orders at levels of demand or supply Isn't always the best You know entry It's it's, you know, I think personally it's better to see some sort of price action before Looking at getting, you know long in an area And I say some sort of there's got to be some sort of qualifying price action It's not every single price action that you're looking for right Because the market is obviously showing you that there is no demand here, you know There's more supply there's that this isn't necessarily a bargain value for the dollar So now we're down into this area here And I think personally this is again a bargain area I've been waiting for this for a while for price to really come down into this area And again, I could be could be wrong why price needs go go all the way down and keep, you know going down But you know, so be it just a game of probabilities, but I'm gonna wait for price action And some other obviously qualifying factors before I look for any kind of buy trades For the Swiss franc, I think this is And the Swiss National Bank are pretty much saying it themselves that the Swiss franc is highly valued basically overvalued And they're going to be doing potentially intervening at some point I'm not saying it's going to be into the next week But at some point they're looking to the worst this gets this the more expensive the Swiss franc gets is the worst It becomes for the Swiss National Bank. Anyway, that's an advanced Fundamental analysis technical wise. What do you want to see technically? So dollar Swiss Delete these levels here Look for some sort of supply zones if you're looking to get short on the dollar and buy the Swiss national The Swiss franc. Sorry You'd really be looking for prices to come all the way back up at the moment to here before looking at any kind of short trades or You'd be looking for Prices to make lower lows Right, so you need a bullish price bullish Day and then a bearish day and then prices would need to come back to this area here before looking at gain short If you're looking to get long right now, then you'll be looking for some bullish price action probably Hopefully down into this Anywhere within this area here and potentially what you might want to see as well Is a bit of a manipulation beyond that level come into that round number 97 round number before looking at the Getting long so that's it's pretty much two options and that you're looking for if not Then, you know, this is gonna be the next area to look for some long trades Let's delete that we can delete this as well whilst we have going on at this level an area of Looks like support and resistance. Why is that important? Simply because other traders trade support and resistance levels So we know that this is an area of value and When it comes to the supply and demand equation We understand that there are technical traders that probably going to be entering long at this level as well as a trade support support resistance Support as well, right so Value traders like ourselves see ourselves like myself and if you're supplying demand trading should be looking at this as Proven value in the past and also technical traders going to be looking at that level as well So that hopefully there should be a bit more demand and supply in this area Moving on to the dollar CAD dollar CAD Surprise surprise if you did get in here at the supply zone well done to you Surprises did set off. There was a nice outside candle You know on the daily very nice and that was pretty I think I was pre FOMC, but if you thought that the dollar was gonna get weaker and they were gonna definitely cut and have that effect then a nice Sell trade right there at supply Again, there was no demand Proven demand within these demand zones and again is that we've been touched once several times twice three times in the Weaker the more times a level touches the weaker it becomes I was saying that from last week Moving forward We have Can eliminate these demand zones? We've come down really into this Supplies and I'm gonna Move that level up to here and there So from a shorting perspective Again, you need to be waiting for price to really come all the way back up to here before looking at getting Short don't know whether that's gonna happen this week or you're looking for This is would represent a lower high potential lower lower if prices see a bearish candle Then you look for Prices to come back up into the air before looking at short trades if you're looking for long trades again This is the demand zone you'll be looking at again going down into a lower time frame before looking at potentially, you know some Some long trades if you've trade, you know double tops or double bottoms or engulfing, you know candles You know any kind of MacD etc You'd be looking at this area here on a lower time frame to look for some long trades Moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar So New Zealand dollar US dollar come down into the demand zone from last week And Then we saw this happen. So there was a bit of demand for the New Zealand dollar, right? Nice little entry at this area here. So betting on some US dollar weakness New Zealand dollar strength Into this week, I don't think anything's really changed Regarding the New Zealand dollar from a level perspective. No nothing. So again, if you wanted to get short on the New Zealand dollar, then there's gonna be an area of supply right there And that'd be your first opportunity to look to buy the US dollar and short the New Zealand dollar And if you're looking to buy the New Zealand dollar over the US dollar, you think it's gonna US dollars gonna decrease in value then this will be the area But just again keep in mind that we've touched it once twice. This is the third time Sorry, this is once twice and then the third time is Is is is definitely the weakest one? So be careful if prices do come down here You'd have to look for some sort of manipulation to the upside if you were looking at that again I think the dollar US dollar is the stronger out of two. So This levels touched once Twice already so if prices do come up to here I would want to really see I have a manipulation in this area I mean, it's fine to take a to take a short trade here anyway But if it does come up to here I would want to see putting more manipulation before looking at short trades All prices to really come up into this 0.675 level before looking at you know short trades But anywhere around here is Decent for a short just keep in mind that it has touched, you know This area has touched a few times if you know, I mean So what you can do in that position is you can either take Smaller risk. So if you normally risk half, I mean 1% you can risk half a percent on the position As it's probably a lower Probability trade doesn't mean that it won't work out or you can if you go if you enter maybe, you know Multiple positions, maybe just go in at one position. You can I mean rather than two positions, etc So that's how you kind of manage you, you know a few ways of managing Your risk so moving on to the pound dollar The pound dollar Did go a bit lower into this lower demand zone before pushing up a lot higher So the Bank of England came out this week and was less hawkish Again inflation didn't often came out below expectations, but due to the focus being on the US dollar the Pounders pie kind of gained in strength, but that all that does is that gives us an opportunity to get short on the pound again back up into Supply zones and I'm looking at shorting around this one two-way level with it Can this is more a fresher level of supply and that's levels touched once Twice again third time. We did get a bit of a sell-off Right those wicks indicated a bit of a sell-off. I think prices are gonna come up to this fresher area of supply before Selling off. So looking at the charts you can delete that this as well and What I do is I will Delete that demand but create a new demand zone Right here And again says levels touch several times So what I'm looking at is a move to a fresher level of supply before looking at getting short Again, there was some supply here on the lower time frame. I was You know in the underside of that But the better area was always gonna be at the absolute You know highs of fresh area. So Yeah pretty much shorts for me But if you are looking at trying to get long on this Currency then you'd be looking at again prices to either come all the way down to here before looking at some long trades or you're looking at bearish candle and a bullish candle and then Looking at prices to kind of come down into that Created demand zone before looking at long trades. So That was a pretty much the options at the moment for the pound dollar moving on to the euro dollar euro dollar So your dollar came down into this demand zone It can be waiting for the Fed minutes the statement and if you did manage to buy anywhere around here Well done to you And hold as well. So Well done To you me personally I was never gonna be a buyer with the euro That's all and this price action for me just brings Makes the dollar, you know to buy the dollar at a cheaper exchange rate So moving to the euro dollar up into a nice fresher area of Supply at this level of supply been touched what once twice already again. I'm always skeptical Prices coming up to a level of supply that's been touched several times usually more than often fakes out a lot of Resistance traders who think that a level is you know touches several times the stronger it becomes and in fact the weaker It becomes but now this comes up into an area where I do want to be a buyer of the US dollar I'm interested in buying here. So now just looking for price action and some other Indicators on the lower time frame. So You can delete this This level here And Now they're starting to look for some sort of Short trades, there's a level of demand right there If you want to be a buyer of the euro you're looking for Proof of value and then price to come back down into a level of demand before looking at long trades Or you're looking at price to come all the way down to here before looking to get Long if you're looking to get and get short then this is pretty much the area to look for short trades Especially around this one point one four round number into the highs of this area here Moving on to the Euro yen And the Euro yen this week managed to take profit at the lows around here around this 1.2 120 level got short up here and Pretty much now Creating a bullish candle. There is still risk off. I think this is probably some sort of profit taking going on here risk is definitely off but the focus has been more and I think the some sort of Euro positivity or it could again just be profit taking if you are Selling here, then you have to buy to exit so Buying creates demands when it demands own proven value in this area So a lot of demand orders coming into this area Doesn't mean that this isn't necessarily a reversal just because it's a nice In golfing outside type candle. This could just be profit taking before a set off And in fact, there is a supply zone here, which we will go into on the chart so at the moment Make this slightly smaller in fact, I'm gonna do it from here You've got the man's own Sorry supply zone right here supplies right there So we're up into the supply zone So what you want to do is if you are looking to get short and buy the Japanese yen based off risk off sentiment, I would say And there's plenty of it at the moment doesn't mean the price is gonna reverse here But there is definitely risk off sentiment in the air That would be where you'd be looking for short trades this week If not be back up into this area or a higher area here Before looking at short trades If you think that the euro is gonna get stronger and the euro is really undervalued around here in a bargain price at this area here Personally, I'd be waiting for price to come back down to this area before looking at any kind of long trades Or you'd be looking for you know, higher highs higher lows to be created so What you'd be looking for is for price to kind of sell off a little bit creating a bearish candle then looking for a move up before looking for a move back down into what would be Demand proof of value Before looking at getting long So that's the Euro yen Next is the Aussie dollar So Aussie dollar this week again dollar weakness and US dollar weakness, you know had a bit of an effect on this this currency pair and Came down into this demand zone where you had bit of support long-term support as well before prices ended up going higher So now we can delete this This area here From a long-term perspective, I think what I'm gonna do is use that as Demand here So again looking at short trades for and buying the US dollar which I am definitely gonna be a buyer of this That's the first area Bit weak to be fair But there is an area of supply there and then looking at short trades anywhere around this level Before looking at short trades and just as a tip was reading a Bloomberg article last week This is this is for the members, but black rock who manage. I think it's something like six Trillion dollars. I think it is a trillion. Those are billions. No, sorry. It must be billions trillions a bit too much but six billion dollars worth of Assets and they basically we're talking about the They're they're short on the Australian dollar and I think it's gonna probably go down to the 0.65 a level 65 cent level They said it's obviously not gonna move in a straight line But pretty much getting short on pullbacks and if black rock is saying that they are short in a Bloomberg article I'm definitely listening. So Any short trades around here if you see any price action and then around this 70 70 cent Round number if not a bit higher looking for short trades because like I said as much as much as the US dollar are also cutting, you know cutting rates did the RB Reserve Bank of Australia are definitely in a worse position and they're very dovish as well and they're cutting rates also And then finally we're going to the Aussie, New Zealand sorry Aussie New Zealand Aussie yen and Again risk-off Sentiment still in the air and prices this week really have kind of you know stalled a little bit But you know trickling down as risk is still off nothing positive coming out for the Australian dollar especially with the long-term Australian Monetary policy, so it's literally just pullbacks to supply zones. So this week We're looking at the charts Where am I so no, sorry that was last week Was it Yeah, so this is this week. It's the June 21st apologies. It was a bit lost there and So this week Pretty much we are where we are. Nothing's really changed. There's no new supply zones, you know to really put on the chart and Demand at the moment is still holding up. I guess I'll move this down to maybe around here It's not typically how we do draw Demand but it was a bit of a an anomaly plus. I don't really want to have this whole area as As as green so it's okay to move that down to there I want to remove that level there until prices make a new Low and low then that area becomes supply but for now it hasn't so Prices could still turn up. So if you think that risk is pretty gonna come back on this week or less risk off Then that's gonna be the first area to look for some short trades and a bit higher I Should say that should be a buying opportunity for prices right now You think this is gonna be off more often you waiting for basic prices to come back up to supply zones and Buying the Japanese yen, right? So that's pretty much the place. So let's risk off Buy trades right now in the lower time frame You know four hour one hour, etc If you see your whatever price actually you want to see any trade it up to put it that supply zone And then if you think that risk is definitely gonna come off at some point, you know global slow down Trump rhetoric Iran Also Being in the crossfires with America So a lot of risk off events at the moment So even though prices could come back to here you could see again some risk off come back into the market So That's it for this week I'd like to thank you all for watching if you've made it this far and Please like subscribe share comment I aim to get back to you all of you guys at some point I know this week has been really busy, but just bear with me and I will you know get back to you If you do have any kind of questions So guys take care have a great trading week and take care