 Wel, mae'n cael 15 o 20 munud o cwestiynau, ac ydym yn ddweud drwy fain a phwyl, o cwestiynau a fyddai'n gweithio. Llyr Fyaf yn fawr, dwi'n gweithio ar gyfer y ddweud? Rwy'n gweithio ar fy ddefnyddio'n gweithio ar y ffarnadau eich bod ni'n i'r ffarnadau ffarnadau, y pwyl yn ffarnadau? Paddy Smith. Paddy Smith, Ardur y Cymraeg. Fy fyddai'n gweithio'r wych, mae'n gweld yn rhoi gweld yn gweithio. Felly ydych chi'n meddwl eu hunain ar gyfer cymdeithas cyfweld, yn y gweithio battu sydd yn y trafnod yr oedd y trefwynt, oherwydd o'r berthynas gyda'r cyfweld, gyda'r Un meiechach, rhywbeth Bryddon a'r union EU. Fe ydych chi'n meddwl, y gallwn ddigon edrych. Dei, y gallwn ei chi'n meddwl, ychydig edrych ar fynd i gyfanyddio ar gyfer pír gofyn. Cwyddoch i confidenceio d supplies ar gyfer rhain. yma'r ystod o cyffinidol. Mae'n fwy o'ch cyffinidol sydd gweithio'r panel o'r wych yn ystod o'r gweithio'r cyffinidol. Oeddwn i'r cwilio'r cwilio'r cyffinidol yma'r ystod o'r gweithio'r cyffinidol. Yn amlwg, rydyn ni'n gweld i'n sefydliad i'r ystod o'r gweithio Brusol, oeddwn i'n gweithio'r ystod o'r dweud o'r dweud eich refforendum o'r yrhaith o'r llyfr o'r ddweud. Fel y rhefyd i'w ddegwyddiadau, mae'n meddwl yn ddweud yn ystyried oherwydd mae'r cyd-gwymau er ffordd yn gweithio, ond ydy'r cyd-gwymau yn ystyried oherwydd mae'n meddwl yn ei ddeud. Mae ydych chi'n gweithio'r cyd-gwymau, ac mae'r ddeudau yn ei ddeudio'r cyd-gwymau ar y dyfodol, mae'n cyd-gwymau'n gweithio'n meddwl yw'r cyd-gwymau. Catherine, os ydwch yn dyfodol y gweithio'n cyd-gwymau, oherwydd mae'n cyd-gwymau, Felly, mae'n gweithio'n cael ei hwn yn dweud o'n hyfforddiant mewn gweithio yng nghymru, ond, mae'n llwyddon yn fwrdd am y cysylltu, mae'n cael ei ddweud yn ddweud, mae'n cael ei ddweud, mae'n cael ei ddweud yn ddweud yn ddweud yn gweithio'n ddweud. Mae'r ddull yn ddweud yn ddweud, mae'n ddweud y Cymru wedi gwneud y Cynffordd yng Nghyrgaf Dyn Nde, pan chi'n lleiwadu'r unwys i y rotate'r unfynor, sy'n mynd i chi'n sgwr i'r ddyloedd Selma. Rydyn ni'n meddwl beth ond cmynion a meddwl y gwaith o'r ffordd i chi'n meddwl i'n meddwl i'r ddylch. Mae'r ddefnyddio'r ddiddordeb yn botfod ychydig yn meddwl am gael ei ddefnyddio'r ddylch sy'n meddwl am ddiddordeb yn meddwl y lu'r ddyddol. Mae'r ddiddordeb yn meddwl am dddiffynedig yn ddiweddol. Angela Eichor yn ymd how hon? The UK has been co-financing lots of things. The UK is a member of the EIB. How will they disentangle themselves from that? Will they want to borrow in future from the EIB, as other third countries do? So there need to be provision for some of that. Some of it can be then referring to the next agreement, That is a lot of disentangling to do in the article 50. But it is facilitated by yesterday's, rather stark, choices I think. I continue to believe the more difficult is having said, we are out of this, out of that, out of the other... there is going to be the next degree, we will choose then... ...how much do they want to come back into... ...or enjoy some of the benefits of membership. On the way for random, I may stand to be corrected. And you can never get away from the fact that... ac mae'n ddawn, ond, y gallwn y cyd-egwyddon yn cael eu cyfrifio'r rhaid i'w iawn. Mae'n ddweud o'r 50 ydyn nhw yn cael eu cyfrifio'r rhaglen, a mae'n ddweud y bwrdd yn cael eu cyfrifio'r rhaglen, ond mae'n rhaid i ddweud o'r lluwg. A hynny'n ddweud o'r rhaglen yn cael eu cyfrifio'r rhaglen, ond mae'n ddweud o'r rhaglen. Prydyn, rydyn ni'n gweithio'r ddweud o'r ddweudio? Come back to you. I think on the first part the CAP I think must be the protection of it, must be the predominant issue strategic issue for us and secondly it has been long of the opinion that it will lead to a referendum if not to. I think it is unavoidable. Thank you. Tom. Thank you, Dolly. Tom Farris, Member of the Institute. Two points in relation to trade, I'd like a reaction on. The first one is, and it hasn't really been recognised, it isn't just trade between Ireland and the United Kingdom. It is the traffics that go through the United Kingdom. And one statistic, the percentage of boxes that go through Northern Ireland is 20% more than on a natural trade basis one would expect. So there's a much more work needs to be done on direct routeings. And in that context, my second point is, it is, and Catherine Day would know much more about this, but it is very interesting that quite separately what's happening at the moment, prior to the Brexit vote, the Union customs code was actually agreed in the European Union and is being implemented. And that brings a whole new world of new technology. And with it, the fact that companies can register as authorized economic operators so you can do your preparatory work, you can get across borders without being stopped. Thank you. Who'd like to have a go? John? Just on that point, it's a very interesting point. I heard somebody from one of the big motor, I think it was a German company, but it may have been a French company. I can't remember the BBC the other day saying that in any one of their models, literally hundreds, maybe thousands of parts during the life of the construction which takes place in different plants, crosses borders maybe half a dozen times. It's not as if you're sending a component from here to Britain to form part of some product. It forms part of something that then moves on to something else. In other words, the network of supply chains will cross endless numbers of borders and any ambiguity about the customs regime that applies would lead to chaos. Anybody else? Okay, this gentleman over here, the third row. Thank you very much. Thomas Gluck, Deputy Ambassador for the Netherlands. I have a question for Catherine Day. You're mentioning the future relationship of the Ireland with the European Union. And you said when the UK has left that European relations will be more continental and less to the taste of Ireland, could you elaborate a little bit on that? I think that it has suited Ireland to be one of the countries supporting one of the big member states in the UK pushing for reform, for openness, maybe for slower integration in certain areas. And I think it will be much more difficult now. We will go back to a more traditional Franco-German view of what the European Union will be and it will require much more networking among all the other smaller member states if they don't like that direction or if they want to influence it. That's really the point I'm making. And I think when we get through some of the negotiating and even long before we finish it, we will start to see new white papers, plans for the next stages of European integration, both because the euro needs to integrate further and can really stay exactly where it is now, but that also brings a lot of pressures for political integration. And I think the kind of debates I've been able to sit in on in the last 10 years will be very different for that UK participation. I think it's just a reality. Thank you Catherine. Gentleman down here at the very back. Yes? I want to follow something that I think Brendan said I may have misunderstood. You referred to when Ireland joined the ERM and that the French and the Germans made a loan to Ireland to help it adapt to this new currency arrangement and then that transition to the cohesion funds. How realistic is that as an assumption of something that might happen, given what Dohy said about Ireland being the most successful country in the last 40 years in terms of economic growth and development. And the question then if I understood what Brendan said correctly, the question for Catherine, how seriously will anybody in the EU, the other member states, take Ireland's claim for yet more begging bowl type of stuff, which was the kind of thing that we used to get used to, we used to have when referendum was where I had a tear that we had to be bought off. I suggest, am I correct in this, that there will be no buying us off this time. Thank you Brendan and then Catherine. Well, you heard me correctly. But I only believe in the begging bowl when you have to beg. And I think we have to beg. But I've said in the annual report of the Institute that was published that we're looking for solidarity. We've got to remember the two way street and we've got to express solidarity. And then we've got to do what Catherine was talking about earlier. We've got to grasp some very tricky nettles here, particularly on common security. So these are the big issues that are lying ahead. As to whether or not we get it, I would think the chances are very high because we are suffering an asymmetric shock that is completely disproportionate to any other economy. Thank you Catherine. Well, I think I learned last year that it's dangerous to make predictions because who knows what the world will do. But I think it will be harder to make a special case now because you have to remember that we would be making the pitch for a special case at the same time as the EU budget shrinks by nearly 20%. So who's going to want to pay more for us? Now we have always benefited from the fact that we're small. And so the actual cost of helping us isn't enormous in the wider scheme of things. But I do think you have to help yourself if you want to make a case to be helped. And I think we need to be changing things now, looking at trade diversification now. We're going to have several years before the real impact takes place. I know uncertainty plays a role now. But the real challenge is going to happen for several years. And we have to show that we have started now diversifying our trade, looking for new outlets. I think coming back and spending a lot more time in Ireland now after so many years in Brussels, I'm very struck by just how much we're focused on the English speaking world. And I think we are going to have to discover again the rest of the European Union and maybe diversify more into that market and other markets. The EU is negotiating a lot of preferential free trade agreements around the world. We maybe will have to go further invest in different kind of countries, but I think the days of our depending on the English speaking world are coming to an end, or at least reducing in terms of importance. And I think the more that we show that we've done everything to help ourselves, and then if there's a gap that needs to be filled in, well then perhaps we can turn to the others and say, you know, we'd be glad for a little bit of help here and there because we are a committed European and because we are going to be part of the future architecture in a different way than what we were for the first 40 plus years of our membership. Thank you Catherine. We're running out of time. I'm going to take a question here just in the front seat and then Paul Gillespie and if I can take all those I will do so. Very, very quick please. Ronan Tynan, everything I think that can be said has been said at this stage but there is just one positive point I must put to the panel and that's the whole question of the opportunities that must exist. I heard the chief executive of Lloyd's insurance market just almost as a matter of fact say, well since 5% of the business it is essential that it be based within the EU if the UK leaves. It's such an institution in Britain, you'll make that kind of comment just automatically. Given the length of time that business has to adjust and the fact that May's speech produced and the quote was, the word was alarm among certain business groups, surely there is a tremendous opportunity for that in that context and we really have to factor it in. There is going to be no free rides on this occasion, the begging bowl is not going to work like it is but this is a huge opportunity but I would also say to Brendan perhaps that in seeking funding and we must recognise it costs money, you need working capital to build infrastructure to capitalise on that real opportunity and May's big mistake yesterday was to threaten the European Union because that sends a clear signal to British business this is going to be a long fraud process so cover your bets and they will. Thank you. Thank you Ronan. I'll take the girl here in the second seat you were looking for and then Paul Gillespie. Thank you Ronan. I just wanted to ask she mentioned a bit about strengthening the UK and using Scotland and other developed bodies and you touched upon when they would get more power back to the UK how that would be distributed but do you think it could lead to the unraveling of the UK or is it a possibility of strengthening? Obviously it's speculation but. John. Nothing would surprise me any longer about anything really but look the Scottish thing hangs on something of a cliff edge anyway I think that in the short run there won't be a second referendum but if this process goes a wall off track that will certainly revive and once that happens then I think the entire settlement is called into question independently of that don't underestimate the extraordinary phenomenon of why all of this is happening. We used to speak about a federal Europe there are developments towards a federal Britain happening far further than merely devolved powers to the regions of the time we've been hearing about it's a strange anomaly but a fact. Thank you John Paul. I wonder what the speakers would think of the scope for special deals north and south to examine Irish interests and the common interests north and south within the negotiation and also east west between Britain and Ireland a bilateral deal which has been flagged by a number of people which could of course be stitched into the process but is that something that initiatives should be taken on in both in both respects? Catherine would you like to? Well as I said I think other members should watch very carefully any knock-on effects of a special deal between the two islands but in any negotiating process it is helpful to bring a solution rather than a problem and I think anything that the British and Irish and the devolved governments can do to understanding very clearly the EU rules bring solutions I think that the negotiators would be happy at least to give them serious consideration so I think that's worth investing in the same as I think it's worth us working with other member states at least on areas where our interests converge negotiating with 27 28 is very difficult and you often see now in negotiations groups of like-minded countries get together and push forward a position saying this represents nine of us or 11 of us or whatever so there is room for all of that and that's why I think there isn't a moment to lose we have to do it now and the more constructively within the framework we can come with solutions the more likely they are to be taken off. Thank you Catherine. Alan? At two points briefly we have a particular history about referendums here but is it really conceivable that we would face a referendum one of the outcomes of which might be that we would say no the UK cannot leave but we don't agree with the UK I mean let's have some sense but the second point Catherine spoke about parallel discussions when we joined the EEC with the UK we had a transition agreement which got us from where we were to being in we should apply the same logic now to the UK to get for where they are now to where they'll be when they're out and May's speech yesterday gave us the contours of that so shouldn't we really be having as Catherine says parallel discussions okay one result has to be put on ice until the article 50 thing is finished and do the process cleanly rather than try to have two negotiations or two negotiations one after the other it seems to me that that would compress the process it doesn't make the problems any easier to deal with but at least it doesn't draw out the agony for as long as the more formal approach would. Thank you Alan. Catherine? I think what you practice you will see is something like a heads of agreement or maybe a bit more developed than that for the second agreement because it will not be physically possible to write all the detail of exactly how 25 digit nace category whatever will function on from the first of January of whatever year but heads of agreement about what the customs cooperation would be how movement would operate what kind of exceptions it would be here and there a lot of that can be sketched out in more than headline terms and that then will also be the negotiated interactives for the second agreement and I think those two will go in parallel but legally speaking you can't conclude the two together just physically given the amount of work that has to be done it wouldn't be possible anyway but that we would have a lot of clarity on how things are going to work by time we get to the end of the two-year negotiating process. Thank you. Gentleman here in the front. Thank you Brian Daley from KVMG and a member of the the Institute. Two questions if I might. John alluded to the NATO point and I thought reading Prime Minister's maze speech yesterday that there was an implicit threat almost as well as on the economic model but also about the contribution the UK makes as one of the major armies in Europe only two members with France and the UK being the nuclear powers and permanent members of the security council and so on. Could you see a renegotiation of the NATO budget overlapping into a discussion on the budgetary cost of leading the EU in light of the driven US renegotiation which they seem to be pushing into the cost driven factor as well and secondly there was a point made in the Prime Minister's speech about the request for an early resolution of clarity for people who are EU people in the UK and UK people in Europe which I think seems to be one of their weaker points given that returning retirees to the UK in exchange for migrating workers back out of the UK to Europe probably is their weaker. Could you see any early movement on that being promised or delivered by the European Union and maybe that second question might be more to Catherine. John? Your question I think touches on a very big issue we haven't time to go into but that the European Union has even bigger challenges than the British one facing it and one of them is on security and defence and all of that in a world that is changing before our eyes. I was struck by the fact little taken by surprise to be honest at the ready agreement to give the European Union member states the authorisation and eventually the capacity to build up its own military command centres which has never too in the two existed they've used or been lent essentially NATO command and control centres now that's a a reflection of something I think is bound to happen but it does complicate the British position post Brexit if we are eventually post Brexit in as much as there is a general willingness which may be accelerated under President Trump for different reasons to transfer more responsibility in the direction of the European Union and here will be Britain that always wants to play a major part in this area suddenly outside where the action is happening but never used to happen very much rather than an in an organisation where the action and the power centres may be moving. Thank you John Catherine. On the second point I think it my personal view is it will come down to the classic phrase of nothing is great till everything is great and I haven't done the economics but it's true that quite a substantial number of the British citizens living abroad are retired and therefore drawing from the economies of the host countries whereas a substantial number of those who are in the UK are actively contributing to the UK economy. I don't want to make too much of that but I think why would there be I can understand individual countries and perhaps individual people wanting to have an early settlement and I certainly understand the concerns of both groups involved but from a the hard headed negotiating position that I was talking about earlier why would you give up any negotiating chip until you can see what you're going to get if that will in my view everything will come together at the end but not until then. Thank you Catherine this will have to be the final question. I'm sorry. Thank you. Can you tell us who you are? I'm sorry Jim McGeeing a member of the Institute X EU official. We've been discussing largely process today but behind it we've really seen the outline of four major political instabilities. There's what the US is going to do over the next few years which is for the least uncertain and that will affect us in the form of NATO. There's enormous instability in the UK as John Palmer pointed out even within the governing party. We've now got exactly the same level of instability in Northern Ireland on the question of devolved government and it's also been pointed out that we have much the same sort of political instability within the union in terms of as Catherine said we're going to have to move into some new form if we are to keep financial unification as we've had it over the last few years. My question really to whichever member would like to tackle it in the old days one relied a little bit on process to drive the political initiative in the sense that certain political initiatives clearly were procedurally impossible but I wonder if that's true now can we I suppose we have to keep moving with the process but can we really count on this process to have the same effect as it would have had as it has had over the last 40 or years? Who would like to respond? John? Well I have to be a bit indiscreet I know not meant to be indiscreet in a situation but strictly called the objective but I think the European Union faces enormous challenges the ensuring the survival and development of the single currency is a fact and in my view it would require a dramatic change in the nature of the fiscal policies that have been pursued to date an enormous change and that is going to be determined in London or Dublin or perhaps in Berlin then there is the whole question of a much bigger and more pervasive challenge which is true of societies throughout the world the loss of a sense of democratic legitimacy the formal structures are there the formal structures exist difficult to think that they could do a much better job but there has to be there has to be some confrontation with the sense that people have both at national and at European level and in many countries outside the European Union of people losing a sense of ownership of the political project I know that brings an infinite many more questions that can be answered but I think it is the one hanging over even the Brexit issue. Anybody else like to say anything? Well I would like to say that I think Catherine made a very important contribution as she said in her presentation about thinking and thinking harder and accommodating to what's going to be EU it is going to be a new EU and it's almost going to be a reversion back to the original in the sense of a Franco-German alliance so on the assumption that France remains ruled by the by the centre left and not by a Le Pen type of thing which is always a possibility but it therefore puts us in a situation where we've got to confront issues that we have not done in the past for example on taxation on security on whether or not we participate in the Schengen area whether we really get involved in front-ex whether we take some relationship with NATO these are all issues we have postponed essentially for 40 years I think now they're unavoidable and I think that's a real agenda on that note let me just remind you of what Brendan said earlier on that there are contributions going up on the on the website of the institute very regularly as the situation evolves I think we should thank our four panellists for really a very very stimulating discussion thank you very much