 Great. Welcome to digital asset news. Take a top stories and crypto right on a bite-sized piece. So today a lot of things to go Over first and foremost the market is doing fantastic even though we are technically in a recession So take a look at the data But what I really want to do is I want to verify some things because I know a people a lot of people are Getting bullish already. I I love the jubilation and the excitement But let's take a look at some realized price net unrealized profits in the 200 week moving average with the MVRV Just to see where we're at. Also, we'll take a look at uh, I just want to Come back and take a look at some prior Price ranges from 2017 to today so we can agree on some things moving forward Then we'll take a look at the the concerns that I have for the market right now and how they can move forward And then lastly, we'll take a look at how another crypto exchange is under investigation By the sec so we'll take a look at all those things But first let's take a look at the market and see where we're at right now, which we're doing pretty good I gotta be honest with you. I mean, this is this is a great day I thought That's we would see a recession or technically what would be called a recession or which is uh two consecutive quarters of economic decline in the GDP and that came to be true What did not come to be true, which is I thought that there would be Quite a little tribulation in the markets and that did not happen It seems like people are like well, that's just what it is and we don't really care And uh, because we don't see the recession effects that we may have thought about in 2008 2009 And I got to tell you people are right on that account But we'll dig in that a little bit, but today is a great day We get to take a look at our portfolio and go wow, we're up today We're at 1.14 trillion, which I got to tell you right now Don't celebrate Like this is the best day of all time. It's a good day. It's not the best day So I just want to bring you down to reality first of all because we're at 1.14 trillion The all-time market cap was 3.2 trillion. So That's what we're working with. That's what we want to be and uh, I'm not saying don't celebrate take the wins But I'm just saying it's not the end. I'll be all bitcoins up 5 and 24 hours Seven days like 3% great ethereum is the big winner today 9% up 14% merges coming along. Hopefully they make that and uh, I'm cautiously optimistic Telling us the buy-in coin. That's crazy three four and five Or three and four of the stable coins bnb is uh, the exchange coin 3.9% and we're everything's up today Let's see anything down. That's a big question. Yeah, wow ethereum classic is up 34 percent For the 24 hours and 73 for the week. Congratulations all you ethereum classic holders might the investors a big believer in that one Check out his channel. He's always talking about it 19 point man 20 for uniswap and he's good So yeah, that's what's going on with the market. How is the rest of the markets? How are the rest of the markets doing pretty damn good actually? So we have 1 for nasdaq congratulations everybody s and p 500 is also up And of course that just comes out of this Amazing to me That we can technically be in a recession depending on who you believe you believe the white house and what they say Which they say this is not a recession even though there's two consecutive And then some other people say no, uh, that is a definition. That's what we're going to stick into it I guess really what it comes down to is how do the markets react? That's the real big question As you can see Things are looking pretty decent, but here's what we got GDP fell almost a full percentage point in the second quarter the second straight decline and a strong Recession signal although is it is it really? The just so you know that follows a 1.6 percent decline in the first quarter and was worse than the dow jones estimate for a gain of 0.3 I don't know why people thought there was going to be a gain. I just don't understand that like you just take a look around I mean the inflation rates are up. You can see the prices of permits everything Going going higher. So you would think that economic growth would actually decline a little bit and it did It was 1.6 percent in q1 2022 now. It's negative 0.9 percent For this quarter, but that's just the first estimate later as we go along. Remember, they'll always make their They're retroactive looks There'll be a second look and a third look and then they'll say well for this third look which will be in Two months from now they'll say yes, that is it's either for 0.9 or remember they did a Revision of this one. I think it was like 1.2 1.3 and they said no no it was 1.6 percent. So sure And this is where it comes down to which you're gonna you all know about this But I just have to make mention of it is that what's a recession and they state we're not in a recession But it's clear the economy's growth is slowing. I don't know how you can justify that But uh, okay, I think when the economy is not growing growing for Roughly six months. It's kind of kind of recession-ish to me That was mark zandy chief economist at moody's analytics. The economy is close to stall speed Moving forward but barely so It to understand there's a couple of things that are actually positive Which is when you think about recession when I think about recession. I think about 2008 2009 that was when most of us Doesn't matter how old you were you can kind of remember that that time frame and in that time frame there was A massive loss is mostly in the housing market. Wall Street took a took a beating people were losing their jobs left and right so in this situation you know, they when they talk about Uh unemployment rates between four and five percent is the acceptable average and right now We're only at 3.6. I've talked to a lot of people a lot of different industries and they're just like yeah We can't find people it's very hard to find not only not only talented people, especially in construction Uh, but just people to work in general. So that is one thing that you can take a look at and go Yeah, it's looking pretty good. And then if we take a look at earnings reports that that came out I mean they just missed by barely and even Uh visa and mastercard they came out and said, you know people are still spending like crazy So if we're talking about a recession, we don't see those factors coming in. So it's a very strange time which of course That will leave me to my next point. Let's verify some things because just because the market's up today Who cares? I mean, let's be honest. Let's see exactly where we're at. So we're going to take a look at a couple of things Realized priced not in unrealized profits 200 moving average with Market value versus realized value. So real quick. I was going to jump into this There's a great website. You should check it out It's called look into bitcoin.com and they got a lot of great charts and it's all free to take a look at And uh, if you want to sign up for it, I don't have an affiliate link, but you can sign up for it They'll give you alerts if you're into that type of thing. But uh, if we take a look at the realized price, first of all What is this? What is it? Why is this important? So the realized price Is the value of all bitcoins at the price they were bought divided by the number of bitcoins In circulation. So we know there's a cap of 21 million, but there's roughly around 19 million Correct me in the comment section Roughly of what is circulating because you know, you still have to mine the rest of those bitcoins Which won't be the last one. I think for like 40 years Bitcoin realized price is important because it shows the economic state of the bitcoin market At an overall level. So when the bitcoin market price is above The realized price the market participants are in profit. So when you're in profit, what does that mean? You can sell And take those profits not that everybody does that I'm uh, I'm not the best at that myself But that is what it is When the big when the bitcoin market price is below the realized price then the market participants are incurring a paper loss and this is A time if we just zoom in here For a very long time people were in profit even back to 2020 Because people were either dollar cost averaging where they were doing so this yellow line right here Is the realized price? Again, that's a formula and for quite a bit of time people were just like Which is let it run let's let her run But there was a small slowdown right here In june really it was june 13th where it fell underneath that line a lot of people weren't in profits Even though the price was you know, very essentially pretty decent and now here we come out of that at Well, I think right now we're at uh, 23 But but but almost 24,000 so Right now that is a good indicator But again, there was a long time when people were still in profit Let's take a look at this one And this was what you would recognize as the thumbnail. I think there's a little bit more Interesting to take a look at the nut net unrealized profits versus loss or the nupl and really all this comes down to is this is The market cap minus the realized cap divided market cap all that means is Our people actually in profit or unrealized profit and we can we can go back here I like how they how they break this down capitulation For quite a bit of time and this is when the bitcoin price was this is in 2011 remember this six dollars That's crazy six bucks because people could have bought it at 20 bucks and of course when they lost That's this is laughable 20 bucks down to six bucks and people were losing their minds But I mean it was a percentage wise pretty big loss and then of course now it goes up and down No one cares about that. So what we what we really want to take a look at is When are we in this capitulation? phase And again We can see around here around june 13th Is when we were in this lowest part and now we just came above it So does this mean right now that start start popping off cork bottles or champagne Start calling the Lambo dealers Start looking at a million dollar multi-million dollar houses in portugal now We're just in the tip of it. This is when we're in the hope stage and look at this Optimism and anxiety. I mean that was when the price was around 40 000 or so belief in denial meaning meaning denial mean like it'll never go down and of course euphoria and greed So if you want to ever take a look at a chart and just state yourself Maybe and this is not financial advice But maybe this is a good time to consider selling some of my crypto because just like This guy who has this great green screen in his mom's basement That looks like a pool has these pretty decent rules and not that I need to follow them But these are my rules. These are my rules not your rules It's all gone Don't invest more than you can afford to lose everything's a scam. Don't trust verify Don't leave anything on exchanges Don't use leverage to the crazy amount 25 1500x and take profits along the way because no one ever one broke taking profits So this last one might apply. I don't know what you want to do. I'm not your dad Do what you want to do So when you take a look at this maybe you take a look back at this chart At some point and go maybe in this yellow I want to take some profits because wouldn't it have been awesome if you had a full let's just say for example Let's just take the the optimism And you sold at around 40,000 Well, now you're at around 20,000 that had been a pretty great day. Now. What if you would have said now? I'm going to wait into this area right here Okay, 60 cheese 63,000 That's a little crazy. No, let me let me take that back. Excuse me right here Where the price would be still 47,000. I'll take it Then come around here 48,000 67,000 would be in this this very high High form right here or maybe down here The thing is You will never be able to time everything perfectly. You'll never hit this bottom right here Imagine buying bitcoin at $2 imagine buying bitcoin at $3,200 or even back here at $200 But you could have bought at 19,000. I think some people did I bought at 19 6 somewhere around there, but it wasn't that much But if you can just look at these bands ago, maybe this is the time to take some profits I don't know it's up to you But this might be a chart you want to look at links in the description Go from there and then also of course over on ben's Website into the cryptoverse we can also take a look at the 200 week EMA and of course it says the same thing. We're just above this point So does this mean that everything takes off when we go to the moon? No That's not what i'm saying We'll go up and down and sideways and things like that But don't think that this is like the end will be all and now it just takes off the moon It doesn't work like that and just like getting into the the part that you want to be in it's going to take some time Any unknown lastly just as a refresher Market value versus realized value again We went below and it's the same thing going over again june 13th or so And we just came above the market value realized value ratio at 1.06. So this might be Time to do whatever you think is best for me personally Yesterday the plan was very simple Which was I told everybody exactly what I was going to do Instead of dollar cost averaging every day. I just waited for the cpi numbers on the 13th those numbers came out 9.1 I was like this is going to probably Reduce the market went down to 19,000. I wasn't able to get bitcoin, but I got it 19 6 It's feeling pretty good about that and then I said okay I'm going to wait until The fed comes out with their numbers fed came out. It was three quarters of a basis point or 75 basis points, excuse me And I said okay, it's probably going to make the market drop a little bit and it didn't really do that I'm like that's okay because the plan was well if it goes up or it goes down or if I don't see much movement I'm just going to buy and you can see yesterday in the video when I had simon you from from storm x I had him just on and then uh like when we were talking Then you see me like come back and i'm like looking down that was me on the phone That was me on the phone buying a bunch of crypto now could this mean that it it goes below that sure It could go below that the big question is Do you think that the crypto that's the priced in right now? Do you think it is expensive? Or do you think it's inexpensive? I can't tell you which way to go, but there's some charts to take a look at anyhow Let me just think about that in the comment section. Let's move on to our next piece Can we agree on something? Let's agree on this This is the thing that concerns me and it's and it's just The price of different crypto projects and I think sometimes we get married to our projects And we let emotions kind of kind of run us it happens to me too. I know But if we take a look at this this was a pretty good Tweet route to flow link in the description. You can find him and follow him But we take a look at the 2017 rank And actually you can go back 2015 2016 2015 it's pretty much the same type of thing 2017 rank bitcoin is ranked number one xrp2 23 bitcoin cash for cardano 5 like when six of that iota remember iota Yeah stellar dash monero Well stellar here monero eos neo quantum. Wow verge and tron So this was the ranking in 2017. Here's the ranking in 2022 bitcoin was still number one if you go all the way back to 20 2010 2009 or whenever they were actually Had this data up. It was always bitcoin one always It's never been flipped as much as people talk about the flippening hasn't happened yet. Maybe it'll happen their decade. I don't know But uh 2022 xrp was sixth, which was pretty amazing considering the fact that they got the pants sued off and by the sec ETH became the second one so they came up plus one bitcoin cash Became thirtieth cardano only became seventh not too bad like coin big drop 20 iota 56 xem. Oh, that's What is that mem? I think dash 76 which I always tell about his dash cell stellar monero Neo to 64 acute and 100 I don't know what bit btg is someone refresh my memory verge the 338 tron And as much as I make fun of tron, which I don't really do it On this on the channel, but tron was ranked 17th. You know, it's ranked 16th in 2022 So for all the tron haters You have to take a look at it go tip of the hat and you guys are still in there nano If they're in classic and of course bcc is dead The price is a little bit off. I don't really care about that but all's I want you to let's just agree on something Which is this? Uh Just because something is number one or number two or three doesn't mean it's going to hold up for the entire test of time But if you take a look back throughout history even in the dot-com era You can see that google was just hanging around in the top 20 You can see that amazon was just hanging around in the top 20 You can see all the different ones. You can see yahoo fall off aol fall off Even though it was the hot one of the month. So just take a look at historically And then do your due diligence and research But numbers don't lie and there's a lot of different projects that people thought were going to be awesome And they just didn't make it because they just couldn't scale So let's just agree and take the emotions out and take a look at the things that've been around for quite some time And are I really pushing for any on Let me just think about that in the comment sections now We'll finish up with my concerns because that was a pretty bullish case. I mean bullish for me, I guess And here's one more thing if I ever come out and I'm like super bullish Maybe that's a good indicator because I'm never it seemed like these days. I'm never bullish But today really tip me into the bullish category again cautiously optimistic So there's a couple of things that concerns me housing market And I have to revive this because it concerns me, but I've been thinking a lot about this lately The national inventory of and this is from realtor.com here in america This is just the data that we have one the largest platforms And they pull data from everywhere the national inventory of active listings decreased by 20 almost 19 the national inventory of housing active listings increased By almost 19 percent over last year. That's a lot of inventory. And that's what concerns me if you had too much inventory not on a lot of demand And it just sits there. However, there's a catch Inventory of unsold homes including penny listings still declined by 1.4 percent. And so there's a couple of things to look at Active listings count. You can see this yellow line right here. That's 2022 the active listings year over year went up 18 percent So it's a lot of a lot of houses that are actively listed to be sold Okay, I think we're gonna agree on that The pending listing it dropped a little bit year over year again. It's not like in 2021 But the pending listing count went down a little bit. Okay, but here's the thing The newly listed homes in june who listen homes increased above last year's levels by 4 nap percent So that's again, what they're talking about. There's a little bit more new homes being listed builders Putting these these houses up people like me who have held on to a house for so many years now really want to we want to sell So the newly listed homes went up. But this is the thing The day's on the market So if there's a lot of supply But there's a boatload of demand doesn't matter and I think that's what's going on here the days on the market Has just fallen The average days is 31 and a half days Still and that's in june I don't know what the numbers are for july, but you can see this nice Swoop down. So I think to myself. Well Even if the meeting listing price is ridiculously high at $450,000 But you still have the days in the market people are gobbling up these houses that Makes me a little more bullish now the big question is this Who's gobbling who's gobbling up those houses? Is it the average? Joe and jane out there Or is it these these big corporations who are just buying up houses because they want to list them for rent? Or they want to put them on short-term rentals long-term or short-term rentals I think that is the bigger question But who owns all these houses so take that with a grain of salt But it does concern me in the background and then lastly Inflation This is I love this site. I've been talking about forever. It's free to use trueflation and they just came out with see up here It says blows up it says choose your data USA well now Oh, you can take a look at uk and before we get to uk Let me show you this. This is the average inflation rate And of course they use a bunch of data points 30 different data points that are pulled in through oracle I mean it's oracle through chain link, which is an oracle which is outside data And we did a a deep dive in with the CEO There's a link in the description watch the video explains exactly how to get this data And it was much much higher than what the government was telling us However, it has gone down. I know people say well 9.8 percent isn't that great Well, it's a heck of a lot better than 11 and a half percent or whatever it was before So that's one thing that's just in the usa and what's great is you can break it down by housing Which not the greatest and I also transportation. Look at that. That's insane 22 but it's dropping Interesting and what is that that's vehicle purchase gasoline other vehicle expenses of all this stuff But what's concerning me now is this I just took a look at this today. Here's uk yikes Uh 13.72 and uh it is just Well, let's see. What's this here? Gee many christmas 16 on june 28th. I guess it is going down But there's a massive amount of volatility over there So these are my concerns globally. We're not just Condensed into one area. Let me know your thoughts and then let's finish up With a crypto exchange on investigation. This is a bummer. It's a bummer, but I gotta tell you I have the utmost respect after reading this article. So Crypto regular regulators target another platform now. We just knew that we just figured out that coinbase is under investigation For insider trading. So we knew that already and then also The sec put in that. Hey, you guys sold on registered securities Even though the doj department justice and the cftc said no That's not what it is But there's a little infighting going on But here's another one department justice the us sec announced charges on july 21st. Okay, we know that one cracking Allegedly violated us sanctions. We now learn that coinbase is not the only crypto Kraken is under investigation by the treasury department. I thought it was interesting I had forgot about this u.s. Treasury department's office of foreign asset control has been investigating kraken since 2019 on suspicion of violated us sanctions according to the new york times kraken allegedly allowed iranians under sanctions to use as platform So i'm like, well, you know All right, it is what it is But there's a big dichotomy a big Separation of thought process here between what these companies want to do and what decentralization is and what krypton's assets And who that is meant for and this is this is the fascinating part To avoid penalties Some firms themselves stick to leads such as open sea and they blocked iranian users this year That's not the case with kraken. It believes that its mission is to democratize finance And not to use crypto as a weapon and this is a quote from Jess pal jesse pal CEO kraken sometimes the hardest thing about having power Is knowing when not to use it our mission is better served by focusing on individual needs Above those of any government or political faction the people's money is an exit strategy for humans A weapon for peace not for war well said tip of the hat to jesse on that one And then this latin that's what he said in this tweet, but this was my favorite part here his second tweet Besides if we're going to voluntarily freeze financial accounts of residents of countries Unjustly attacking and provoking violence around the world step won't be to freeze all us accounts as a practical matter That's not really a viable business option for us. So Okay, didn't get taken off the air for for talking about that that was a great tweet jesse and That is I can see that I can definitely see that I can get behind that and I got to tell you Uh, I'm going to be using kraken a lot more after that comment So one of your thoughts in the comment section and that is it for the news today look It went 25 minutes a little bit longer than what I wanted it to I'm sorry But uh, sometimes just get a little equations So if you had to take off get out of here Enjoy the day do whatever you got to do on your way out hit that like button That's the only way that youtube pushes this out or even realize that I'm even alive You don't have to subscribe. I'm here every day and that's it So thanks so much now we'll get into q and a if you want to stick around I'll answer all your questions the best of my abilities and we'll go from there So get out of here. If not, let's do a little q and a let me get this out of here