 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Not to put any pressure on the bears and the Patriots for tonight But I need a mouthwash after a wild Disgusting gross Sunday across the board a lot of key injuries that ruined some daily fantasy line It's kind of a bummer of a day overall. So I gotta say Mack Jones Justin Fields Let's put on a show buddy We need a good a good elixir to cleanse our mouths of this past week, so we're gonna break down Monday I footballed she and the Bears and the Patriots today getting Ryan Williams read on that game and it's here at bats across the board Over at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again to buy Ryan Williams check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W And Ryan week seven at least for me was one to forget So I'm ready to turn the page to week eight or hopefully close things on a high note here How are you doing today though? Yeah, I mean it was rough for me, too You know expected the Bengals passing game to be a lot more popular than they were I was all in on Joe Mixon last week who obviously was the most popular piece in that game and you know as soon as you start seeing Joe burrow torch Torch the slate Against the Atlanta Falcons who had been the cover darlings. You knew that it was gonna be be a rough day So I'm right there with you just trying to turn the page on on week eight We do that tonight with my hometown team and the New England Patriots who pretty much have their number So this should be a fun one. Yeah, I was driving home from a wedding yesterday And I had like my phone for navigation open and I was like not paying attention to it But I saw I happened to see a message come through via slack From either Brandon Goduller or JJ Zachary's and saying a mom Ross ain't brown to the injury tent. I was like, oh boy Gonna be one of those days. So I am fully ready to look ahead We'll break down our read on this bearish Patriots game and much more Yardage props touchdown props over at Fandle to get you set to win some money You're at the end of week number eight, but first or week seven. I should say yeah, I'd like to forget week seven Anyway Before the that though a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We of course have daily shows here Monday through Friday breaking down NFL Poxman will be tomorrow preview the world series between the Astros and the Phillies and We'll also have plenty of other stuff here college football on the way on Wednesday all right here in this same feed to get those as they go Live make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast NBA season is underway And that's the perfect time to download Fandle America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers getting no sweat first Bet up to $1,000 That's up to $1,000 back and free bets if your first bet doesn't win Fandle has all your favorite bets from the money line to point spreads to player props You can even combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay plus with live betting You'll get updated odds on games that have already started the Fandle sportsbook app is safe secure and super easy to use So download Fandle today to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 make every moment more this season with Fandle official sportsbook partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states First online a real money wager only refund issued is not withdrawal with free bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook. Fandle calm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler over the Fandle comm slash RG in Arizona Call 1 800 next step or tax next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1 810 9 with it in Kansas 1 810 5 2 2 4700 or visit ksgamblinghealth.com in Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in New York 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open Y in Tennessee call the red line at 1 8 8 9 9 7 8 9 in Wyoming 1 810 5 2 2 4700 or in West Virginia 1 800 gambler dot net let's dig in now to the Bears at the Patriots We'll talk about the traditional markets They spread the money line the total in just one second the first overall ride I want to get your top-down view of this game. What are you thinking going into this one between the Bears and the Patriots? I'm thinking how is the over still at 40 and a half or over under line set it 40 and a half This this game just feels gross Especially with Mac Jones starting. I mean Mac Jones is really the key here for me And I mean what why it's it's weird for me to take the eight and a half here I mean that I don't see how Chicago has a chance being in this game on Monday night football in prime time in Foxboro It just doesn't line up. But I mean when you're looking at this number eight and a half feels weird Mac Jones has not looked great Bailey's app He has been the better quarterback this year the numbers have proved that thus far and he will be on the bench so It worries me to go the Patriots side here on that number Because there could be some words of happening but Bill Belichick in his career now granted that was the Tom Brady era But he has absolutely, you know pretty much. He's won every game against his team since 2002 Not covered at this big of a number except for you know later on of the past three games They've absolutely annihilated the Bears, but there have been some close ones in the past where things can happen This is totally unjust in field shoulders though I mean the the defense can come out and they can limit them But the offense has to put up points the Bears have not had a propensity to do that We just saw them on a Thursday night football game probably one of the ugliest games that we'll see all season So it just feels weird all all around Jim I don't really have a read on where I would want to lean on this game But I definitely want to take the under here Just with the way these two teams play. Yeah total is 40 and a half as you mentioned over Fandall sportsbook right now The under on 40 and a half is minus 114 and I've got a bit of a disagreement in my numbers here Ryan I've got the two models as we've discussed The traditional model the one that I use the one that I lean on says Patriots by 8.55 So about as efficient of a market as it could possibly be it thinks this is an appropriate line The 2022 only model which has no priors in it So doesn't know you know what I thought about the Bears the Patriots coming in has to England by 6.3 points So a little bit tighter a little bit of feistier on the Bears side of things. I'm not betting that I think this is a pretty firm stay away from me in that regard and I think that with the If we were to expect the Patriots to keep the same game plan They had the past two weeks where they were decently run heavy. They leaned on Ramon or Stevenson a lot I think I could see myself going towards the under except we know the Bears will be doing that as well But I just I'm not really sure what we'll see here because there were times When they were trying to open things up with Mac Jones letting them throw a deep bit more That's gonna play into a discussion. I'll have later on on a yardage prop that I'm intrigued by But I think to me it's kind of a stay away in traditional markets It seems pretty efficient in both regards and I just I don't have a firm grasp on the Patriots I think I know what the Bears look like the Patriots side is so hard for me Mostly because things are so in flux between as it goes from Zappie now back to Mac Jones Now the other thing that's in flux is both these backfields. They're both weird right now Damian Harris is back out in full practices throughout this week. He's back on the Bears side They said they're gonna ride the hot hand So we've seen clue Herbert play pretty well this year, but David Montgomery is not a bad running back. So That's tough too when you're looking at these backfields Ryan Uncertainty can be bad because it means that we don't really know what's gonna happen But it also means that sports books probably don't know either and there's a bit more potential for inefficiency in those markets So when you look at the backfield props here for the Patriots and the Bears Anything you like or is this a stay away for you? No, I think that I think that there's some merit here on both sides I mean, let's talk about the Bears who said they're gonna ride the hot hand at running back I mean that the numbers aren't really showing that for clue Herbert at this time You can't really see clue Herbert's prop lines, but just him being in any time touchdown score almost, you know four times Less likely is what the sportsbook is saying with Montgomery at plus 170 and then you look at clue Herbert as plus 550 Glue Herbert's been the most explosive back all season long You saw it in that Thursday night game against Washington and they come out bring him not team not prepared for him He goes off. He breaks off a large run. We've seen that multiple times this season already I would like Montgomery to still you know be involved in the passing game I would love to see what his rushing receiving prop ends up even his receiving line I think would probably be too low for the way that they're gonna have to play in this game I mean, they're not gonna be able to run against this team. They know that Justin Fields really Can't throw they'll probably force them to beat him but on first and second down I expect them to stack the box So receiving props is where I would lean on the Patriots side of the ball. How can we not go? Remandry Stevenson here. I mean any any prop that he's getting I think his rushing was 63 and a half or something around that number a 60 something Way too low Damian Harris is coming back. This will be his first game back Sure, I think he'll still be involved But this could just be you know a perfect matchup to just give Stevenson, you know, 20 plus touches let him Ride it out. I think any prop on him is definitely favorable because they they've looked for opportunities to give the keys over To this offense with Damian Harris missing a couple games this year already Stevenson has stepped up to the plate. This is something that we expected coming into the season Even his rushing receiving I think is interesting because this was supposed to be the past catching back when James White Was hurt earlier this year in the preseason. So Love Stevenson tonight. Yeah, I think I'd agree with you where I'd wait until Stevenson's rushing plus receiving yardage Prop is up because it's not currently up at Fandle the rushing yardage number 63 and a half and with that number You're kind of assuming that he gets a Really like a workload increase from what he was at when Harris was healthy earlier on this year So I think that I'd rather like you said hold off until the rushing plus receiving number is up because it allows you multiple paths to get in there now with Clial Herbert, I want to ask you this because I think that my my overall thought in the situation is that the will ride the hot hand Mindset makes both guys more volatile and more volatile means you can kind of consider more Volatile slash high upside markets. So right now over at Fandle. They do have a Clial Herbert alt rushing Market up his baseline is 32 and a half and like, you know It's hard to get a read on that with with they're saying that you know, like they said, they're gonna sack the box They're gonna ride the hot hand if the hot hand could wind up being Montgomery. We don't know I think that if I want to bet Herbert, I'd want to look into that alt market because right now 40 plus rushing yards plus 138 50 plus rushing yards plus 260. I wouldn't want to go beyond that I think this will still be a split, but I think that's probably where you want to look like this bears Rushing offense. I know they've been like very rush heavy, but they've also been pretty good They've been efficient as a rushing offense so far. So if he does wind up getting Even like 1b kind of work. I could see him getting towards 50 or so. So I think that if you want to buy into Herbert That's probably where I'd be looking is the alternate market Are you willing to do that with Herbert or is it more so just taking the value in that touchdown prop? The best route for him for you buying into him Yeah, I mean the the touchdowns pretty pretty ugly too when you look at the Bears and applied team total and how they're gonna get points I just think that you know if you're even remotely thinking that this team has a chance to score probably You know gonna come through the running back if they get a short shortened goal situation there and just you know If they're riding the hot hand, I just like the odds better than Herbert I will say though that the yardage it seems about fair if you're going alt line around 40 50 I mean even yeah, you know these these are you know really better running backs, but the past two games You're looking at you know guys like Jamal Williams and and Nick Chubb getting for 50 yards Against this team where they're normally you know, they're normally able to put up a hundo But you know 50 yards seems seems feasible in a matchup when you're thinking, you know Okay, how many possessions are they gonna get what are they gonna be forced to do if they just you know Try and get going. Hopefully you can rip off some runs of you know eight plus yards To really make you feel good about that number. Yeah, I think that you would probably need some Upside it kind of runs there kind of as you alluded to at some point in order to get to that number But I think that with Herbert that's still a viable option for sure now Let's dig into the passing game outlooks here because we've seen that we know the Bears they want to be run heavy the Patriots have Kind of been back and forth. I don't know if they really have like an identity yet They've been interesting the past couple weeks, but like I'm not sure what their identity is on offense So when you look at the passing yard is props anything sending out to you there Yeah, I think that well on the Patriots side, I know they're dealing with some injuries I was looking for Tyquan Thornton who seemed to got going last week and what his prop line would be I think that's interesting But also we got to talk about the the kid Jacobi Myers who you know Mac Jones and in their time together has had a propensity to find this guy at a high rate So any number on Jacobi Myers? I would love to get to tonight I think he's coming in 51 and a half of that that seems fair with what they have going on in the In the wide receiver core So I absolutely love that. I think on the other side. I Know people will talk about Darnell Mooney 45 and a half. They have nothing to do but throw But it still makes me a little bit worried. I mean Justin and him just haven't been on the same page at all this year I will say that Mooney is their best bet to try and get down the field But look at an equinomia same brown He comes in at 13 and a half that feels absolutely way too low for me his route participation has actually gone up I know he got blanked last week didn't even you know get a target But no Amir Smith Marseille on this team anymore. I think you know He's shown a propensity to you know be able to go up and get the ball When Justin Fields has been able to find somebody he's had some decent games already this season 13 and a half Kind of feels low knowing what the state of the fairs might be for the bears in this game If they're you know trailing from behind for a majority of this game I think that's a really good shout out with equinomia same brown with that number He has gone over that number in four out of six games despite having no more than two receptions in any game Equinomia same brown like you said no targets last week But overall has had an okay role He's you know running a lot of routes at least does get some deep work as well You mentioned him no Amir Smith Marseille after his fumble against Minnesota as well So I think that equinomia same brown is interesting, but you actually touched on the one that I thought I think my favorite bet of this game He's coming Jacobi Myers 51 and a half receiving yards. I think that's a situation where I actually would be okay taking it over there He's had a very good role in his healthy game so far this year Look at the four games that Myers has played now two of those were with daily zappy versus two with Mac Jones But a 26.7 percent target share for Myers in those games then getting some deep work Not a ton like he's not a huge downfield guy But he's been getting enough work where I feel like I'm actually pretty intrigued by that number and Myers is someone who I've always felt a little bit like the market tends to be higher at him than I am but here I actually think that I'm higher. He's gone over this number in all four games. So far. He's had he's cleared it by like double twice Effectively, so I think that if I want to bet this game if you're looking for action on this game I think that Jacobi Myers over 51 and a half is my preferred route for doing so I think there is a decent amount of value there based on the way he's been used this year based on the fact that Mac Jones is throwing it deeper more often than he used to I Think those stars align pretty well now you mentioned Taekwon Thornton being back that does kind of throw a wrench into it because we haven't seen this like Conflict this this like convergence of healthy bodies with Taekwon Thornton Mac Jones and Julie Myers all healthy at the same time But and Nelson Aguilar could play too. He got a limited practice on Saturday So he could be good to go as well We could have a lot of healthy bodies which makes it a little bit more concerning with Myers But I do still think there's value there over 51 and a half for Jacobi now He talked about Clio Herbert plus 550 anytime touchdown. Is that one you're looking to bet? Is that your favorite prop or what are you seeing in the touchdown market for tonight? If anything at all? Yeah, I mean It's slim pickings. I think you know remandre, you know, you choose that 150 the favorite But that means that I feel like that's even still a good bet to lay down if you really are looking for sure fire Or you know, we don't want to say sure fire We never say sure fire and betting but if you want to feel good About a prop that you have going in and you're willing to lay the money down on that I think that's interesting two to one on Jacobi Myers to score a touchdown This guy, you know was known for never scoring a touchdown never being able to find pay dirt and he's had some success already this year With Mac Jones, I think that's interesting. I think that my favorite bet of the night in general This pains me to say as a Bears fan, but the New England defense is five to one score touchdown Which you know, you're gonna get you're gonna get a shot at that On special teams as well to three straight games for New England against the Bears They have scored defense or special teams touchdown in these games So, you know, if you're if you're ready to cook with some gas there New England D take a shot on them tonight to get in the end zone No love for the Bears defense at 7 to 1 not me on it I mean, that's you know, I the prophecy isn't out yet But I will be, you know, heavily waiting for them to release Mac Jones interception prop line And it should be money because he's thrown one in every start that he's that he's had so far this year And we know he's you know, he kind of has that mentality of forcing throws. So I mean that that should be, you know Fairly, you know, I would I would imagine it should open at like minus 114 ish Around there if it's anything lower, I will be hammering that yeah Talking about how he was throwing a more deep more often this year and that that's a good thing in general because like, you know You can get chunk gains better, but it also does lead to more interceptions. There is a give and take effect there So we're looking at the Mac Jones interception props once they come up But I think the New England defense one five to one pretty interesting for sure They've been playing very good football and if you assume that this game Like you said does lean towards the Patriots at minus eight and a half That would be conducive to a negative game script putting the bearer situation has to drop back That leads to you know situations where they could lead it could lead to upside plays of that nature Alrighty, that is all that we have here for today for this Monday night football preview. I think this game I Just I hope it exceeds expectations. That's all I got I mean, I need I need to I need to go out on a high note for this week because it's a Better rough one for sure. So we'll see how things play out, but either way it's football I can't complain that much. It's I'll be I'll be missing this game in in March So I guess we'll enjoy it while it is here for today That is all that we have here for today on this Monday night football preview But as I mentioned, we are back here once again Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday this week to get you set for more MLB NFL college football action all right here on Covering the spread check out Ryan on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W. Ryan. Good luck to your bearer tonight I hope that things go well for you if you get to enjoy the game. We'll talk to you again soon Yeah, it'll be a fun one I hope but yeah talks you soon Jim. Good luck everybody get those bets in tonight. Yep Enjoy the game Ryan. We'll talk to you again later on this week. I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I. M. S. A. N. N. E. S. You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck to you with your NFL bets for tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to talk about our first look at NFL week number eight This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network