 Think tech away civil engagement lives here Okay, we're back. We're alive. It's Tuesday. Wow, and it's a very important show It's a show at our five o'clock block. It's community matters and it's about climate change It's about science and data on client change and climate change And we have we have David S. Vogel who was a scientist right here and devotes may I say this? Devotes his life to Gathering and interpreting data about climate change. Is it fair? That's a good description For the my work for the foundation. Okay, the foundation is volo foundation. Yes, which is a very important foundation to think tech And you're also the CEO Volo Ridge That right what is volo Ridge is a quantitative hedge fund Okay based in Florida and and you're not just any old head hedge fund You're actually you were awarded number three in the world hedge fund in 2015 that hedge fund That was in a Baron's ranking, I believe. Yeah, so and you're sitting here with me. Thank you very much, David Hedge fund managers are usually very smart service scientists by that way And I know and I think it's important to say why you know, you have dedicated so much time and effort Individually and through the foundation volo foundation about climate change and to sort of integrate your science your work your data Analysis with climate change. That's not so easy and you put in a ton of time on it. Why? Well when my wife and I started volo foundation in 2014. We're very focused around around fighting poverty and we Once I dug into the data science of climate change. I realized it's it's so severe. It's going to affect widespread poverty Eventually, it'll cause a lot of other problems and it will affect us in the US both economically and health-wise Is where it was a lot of foreign issues from more immigration? So a lot of issues around climate change. It really is An area of philanthropy that's underfunded For how it's great importance to future of our of our society. Yeah. Yeah Well, I mean and and to your credit you have spent the time and you've you've been Altruistic in it to the fullest extent. It's kind of major payback what you do and we really appreciate that And our tagline for the show the title for the show is science and data about climate change But the tagline is the one that hits me. It's don't mess with mother nature So David you have found you've accumulated data you've interpreted data as a scientist would as a data Manager would in big data and you've made some conclusions about don't mess with mother nature What have you found? Well, I guess a lot of the conclusions I reach are no different from a lot would a lot of great Climate scientists have have come up with I've just found better ways to explain it to people. I have I've a slide here showing Basically the distance from the well first of all This slide shows shows the increasing damages caused by by major climate events so we got we used to be in the Single-digit billions and damages per year and now we're getting into the hundreds of billions And so we've been setting records and all that within the last few years the increase is really dramatic It's been a steady steady increase that every decade actually for the last several decades and doubling a tripling and now it's getting to the point where it's a substantial part of our Our GDP so it's really going to affect affect the economics of the country as well as the rest of the world And people don't necessarily realize it. Well, can you can you interpret this shot for us? This this is it's a what you call kind of a cumulative a bar and there are elements on the bar What what are what are the elements in the bars? well, then the left and the left axis shows number of climate events and so the height of the bar is is the number of climate events and then the The graphs underneath that they're a little little harder to see are the hundreds of billions and damages and those are aligned with the Right axis and so it really is is just shooting up in terms of damages And so when we dig into the more into the science in the next slide up We can talk about how this is definitively man-made Before we leave this I just I just want to look at that and Ask you how it got created. I mean you went out you got the data put me in your shoes for a minute How did you do this? Well, I decided to play the role of the skeptic and take no data from environmental sources and and take nobody's word for The fact that the climate is changing and I basically went and look looked at I downloaded do it buoy data for example from the Atlantic to for measurements of Water temperature and correlated that with the increasing hurricane intensity. I downloaded Data data from glaciers to look at them to graph the data points of Temperature versus carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere So that I could come up with my own estimate and I did I came up with my own estimate of about three degrees Celsius of warming and that's if No, no more fossil fuel emissions are put out there. So this is big data This is global data and this is data that you as a data scientist could could manage and interpret and you that chart reflects Your interpretation of the big data you downloaded this sounds so much like we have a program called research in Manoa on Mondays And they come down from the School of Ocean Earth science and technology at UH Manoa from the Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology And they talk about their efforts with big data talk about accumulating it from all kinds of sources In huge volumes of data and interpreting it That's how so they earn their PhDs one after the other doing that and that's exactly what it sounds like you do and right and I Couldn't do a lot of work in big data, but this is actually much simpler. It's actually I call it little data because a few data points you can actually prove Prove that global warming is completely man-made and and it's pretty severe And so the next slide really gets into that illustration. Yeah, let's go to the next slide Don't forget the point one on the exam is this is all man-made my right? That's correct Okay, what does the slide say and so this slide basically shows the concept of of what carbon dioxide does for When it's in the atmosphere You got the earth and the and the sorry the earth and the moon about the same distance from the Sun and yet The moon's at minus three degrees and the Earth's at a little more than 60 degree warmer and so This is something that's been studying for 200 years 200 years ago Physicists were figuring out what I knew here, right? So when people say this is the climate science is a new science This is 200 year old physics. It's the same science. We believe them when we fly in a plane. Yeah, so So basically they figured out hundreds of years ago and never dispute ever since of what keeps us warm is the two trillion Tons of carbon dioxide that are naturally in our atmosphere And so the the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is warming us Am I right about this and the more carbon dioxide you have the more carbon you have the warmer you are my right? That's correct. I'm not I'm giving a simplified version. There are other greenhouse gases, but By far the largest driver is carbon dioxide and two trillion tons is actually a good amount It's the naturally occurring amount with without any carbon dioxide would be We'd be freezing the depth so it's a two trillion tons is a good healthy amount interesting now 150 years later after All this industry we have we measure three trillion tons of carbon dioxide So if two trillion tons is the difference between freezing the depth and 60 degrees warmer You can imagine and it doesn't take a physicist to recognize that and that three trillion tons The 50% increases is pretty a pretty severe warming potential. Yeah, and and I think it wasn't so bad has turned much worse That's right So and so then well a lot of the skeptics will argue. Well, how do we know it's man-made? This is a natural cycle And it's actually very easy. So again, I said not not Pretending not to believe any environmental scientist you download data Available to the public from from oil and gas sources where they published the energy consumption Which are reputable sources and unassailable sources, right? I mean anybody can Google BP energy report and and see the annual consumption of coal Globally is 5.5 billion tons and the annual consumption of oil is 35 billion barrels Take the 35 billion barrels We know they add doesn't take much research to know the average weight of a barrel is 275 pounds You just do some multiplication in addition and you get 30 billion tons a year of carbon dioxide Coming that are man-made easy So you actually add it up and we've accounted for every molecule of that additional to one trillion tons in the atmosphere And if we don't stop what we're doing 35 years times another 35 years times 30 billion will have 4 trillion tons right is even Yes well, you know I Guess this is really Profoundly important that we understand this but query, you know you have written this you and I've seen your writing I've seen your graphs and charts I've seen your work and I talked to you and we had a show with you and Howard wig one of our Other hosts here a year ago Where are you publishing this? Where are you telling this story? And how are you getting it out to the people who need to know about it? Well, I'm telling the story to whoever will listen first of all being on this is fair enough this show twice Communicate this information with various with various environmental groups for example environmental defense fund They have a lot of contacts and politics and share this information. I gave a talk with investment group investment conference and We funded some groups that just go around educating Educating people Because you know aside from the political aspect when you talk to an investment group You're talking about the possibility of impact investing so that you should invest and you know funds including hedge funds should invest in projects and issues That are that are safe for the environment So you must have a fair amount of leverage when you go and present to a group like that because if they take your advice They could have a big effect on how much carbon we put in the atmosphere, you know, and that's correct I think investors are starting to recognize that there is risk involved with them carbon dependent businesses that at some point it's going to get the climb is going to get so bad and Restrictions are going to be put on them that that that creates some A good degree of risk and we actually published a set of oil Set of a set of risks on every oil and gas Company there is that's good and we should do that So my question I suppose is that what comes to mind here is What is the state of awareness now in the world? We know the state of awareness in Washington is Unawareness or at least denial But what is it like on a global basis is humanity? Sufficiently aware of these issues and these conclusions that you make Well in some countries certainly more than others in the US we are Severely Underaware of the of the risks of climate change. I have a slide on that That shows shows what the pole of the American public and what the most important Issues were prior to the 2016 election. Yeah, let's talk about that. We have that slide up now And to me this is fascinating David because because you have to assume and sometimes Who knows what is in the mind of the electorate in the public sometimes, you know, sometimes 300 million Americans can be wrong entirely possible, I think that happens frequently these days But this shows you this slide shows you what the priorities are However, they got to be the way they are ordered on this slide and these are the wrong priorities specifically environment being number 12 on here I guess I believe third from the bottom That Americans didn't don't consider that important Important issue to address and so we people like to point fingers. They say well, okay, it's the oil and gas companies The you know the bad guys are causing all the all the carbon emissions and very interestingly I I Spoke with John Huffmeister who's the former CEO of shell oil corporation he actually wrote an entire book on how to get away from carbon and states shows in the book how Policy cannot allow them to allow the energy companies to make that conversion so even even people in big oil companies recognize that hey, this is this is important for Improving the lives of our children So then you point to the politicians and you say hey, well, why are the politicians doing nothing and you look at this this poll? I've gotten I've gotten quite a bit of feedback from from from congressmen who are pretty well aware of the importance of climate change even even Republicans Even but they have political cover because of polls like this right now because the public is not aware They do not see it as a priority and therefore the politicians even if they know better Are saying well the public doesn't care. Why should I care? I'm following the public and that way they have the defense of A poll like this it's cover right right and I'm not trying to be partisan in any way this really should be a bipartisan Issue it's just the politicians are going with what their constituents and Want to see or if they want to get reelected to be able to make any impact sure and You know what I tell you the truth just one thought here I expect politicians and the officials I elect to apply some wisdom even if the polls go the other way I expect them to save our Save our society and use the best knowledge and analysis they can possibly use Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way these days And I think if a certain percentage of the American public comes to realize that That this is a huge issue then politicians will follow and do basically what yeah, but their constituents Want them to fight for? We're going to go to a break But before we do back to that chart for one minute just an example of something that is not important and Yet that is that is shown to have a priority at least in the minds of the public More than environment can you give me an example of one of the stark priorities that is on top of environment here? Well, the the top four interestingly are hugely affected by climate change so at the number one issue economy would will be crushed by Enough enough warming. I mean we see the economic only sees the connection hundreds of billions and damages So so we're crushing the number one issue It also affects the foreign policy and national security So number two and three and it affects health care as we've seen more sicknesses so the top four issues all will be affected greatly by By climate change hence the environment really should be number one should be number one Yeah, there you have it that that point will be on the final exam We're gonna take a short break now and we're gonna come back and we're gonna talk about the ghost of Christmas future And what is going to happen and where if we don't resolve these problems and deal with climate change? David S. Vogel will be right back Do you want to be cool watch my show on Tuesdays at one called out of the comfort zone? I sang this song to you because I think you either are cool or have the potential to be seriously cool And I want you to come watch my show where I bring in experts who talk all about easy Strategies to be healthier happier build better relationships and make your life a success So come sit with the cool kids at out of the comfort zone on Tuesdays at one. See you there Hello, I'm Yukari Kunisue. I'm your host of new Japanese language show on think deck Hawaii Konnichiwa Hawaii Broadcasting live every other Monday at 2 p.m Please join us where we discuss important and useful information for the Japanese language community in Hawaii The show will be all in Japanese. Hope you can join us every other Monday at 2 p.m. Aloha It's community matters at the heart of things its climate change its science and data David S. Vogel who is a data scientist And he runs volo foundation which is dedicated to trying to make the public aware about the problem the Significant problem to humanity the risk to humanity with climate change We call you show science and data about client climate change and our tagline for it is don't mess with mother nature Because indeed we are messing with mother nature. So if I give you the the problem of the ghost of Christmas future David Vogel What do you see if we don't do anything if we let these processes that you identified from the data Continue without you know without dealing with them trying to reverse them. What happens to the earth? What happens to humanity? Well, I got a slide that points out How it affected from parts of the US It would definitely affect places all over the world. I mean we have entire countries Sinking going as water level rises and the ice caps already happening But let's be selfish for a moment and just look at the US. Okay, in fact, we got Extreme Hurricanes probably the number one in terms of dollars damage. We saw what happened to Maria in Puerto Rico would Lost power for months basically so so big storms can basically shut down our economy We've got huge expensive droughts In the northwest we've got flooding anywhere that's coastal and Especially coastal cities where it's very expensive to deal with that Because because increasing temperatures were just melting the the ice In the polar ice caps and and so we just get higher and higher sea level and so we address this problem Any worse Getting more extreme. That's right. And we have now probably going to affect Hawaii We have El Nio, which means more extreme weather and we are heading into the hurricane season, which means Well extreme weather we've seen you know the floods here in Oahu. We've seen the floods on Kauai Seen a lot of damage and that wasn't even in the hurricane season This is getting pretty threatening You know, I I always wonder when they come on on television At least here in the United States and they say oh, we have a flood. Oh, we have a storm You know what they really need to say right after they announce that is and this is part of climate change They don't say that they leave it to the public to connect the dots and the public doesn't generally connect the dots And you really can't and it's you can't connect a single storm to climate change but collectively when you see The amount of hurricane damages doubling and tripling every decade for the last four or five decades that that's significant Yeah, that's why we have to look at the data and plot the data out and make data conclusions That's the nature of them, you know our computer science these days really to be able to do that right and again, I mentioned I'd analyze some of the data myself from from buoys you can Correlate eighty one eighty two sea level water pretty much would category one and category two hurricanes Below eighty degree water. You don't see any hurricanes ever 84 85 degree weather Water the hurricanes almost always category four or five. So a few degrees is huge. It's a difference to you know category one hurricane Causing a few billion in damage to category four. It's over a hundred billion in damage So you find that the these increases in damages increases in the severity of of the storms and the sea level rise Is it just a straight lineup or is it sort of a logarithmic lineup? Is there a geometrical progression or is it just mathematical? It's actually it is mathematical But it's more than linear the frequency of storms is actually fairly linear with the Water temperature, but you're not only getting more storms But you're getting more intense storms. So the cost per storm is going up. Yeah So it really is is is it's a curving up more a lot more than linear and when you talk about You know the extreme weather and the temperature and the data that you have you're really not including The biological effects of that for example if I give you two degrees in ocean temperature That's going to change the the biological life in the ocean. It's going to change the bacteria It's going to change the survivability of various species there. It's going to change the viral You know Context of the ocean water. There are people here that are researching those things and it's very you know It's it's early science. We don't know yet. We'll find out the hard way Two degrees could mean, you know extraordinary things that do affect people and those are all the unpredictable effects so I'm focusing on the predictable facts are actually large enough that it's Deniable to do something about yeah, then you got all the unpredictable effects So the true price of carbon is is is pretty up there so let's talk about what has been done by knowledgeable aware You know societies and countries around the world and and what needs to be done in order to make a reasonable Attempt to deal with climate change who has been who has been the heroes In this in the war against climate change. Well, Sweden is a good example to follow Sweden is at least 25 years ahead of the US in terms of climate policy In 1995 is where that when they implemented their first carbon tax They do everything right from they got More efficient homes more R&D and energy efficiency Moving toward electric cars and interestingly their GDP Has gone up. It's actually accelerated upward. That's very interesting while their carbon the carbon emissions gone down Since their carbon emissions has gone down 23% in the time that their GDP has gone up Something like 45% have you had do you have a thought about why that is because you know another Approach and a naysayer denier person would say oh if you do all those things to deal with climate change You know you're spending all this money and it's that's going to degrade your economy And you're saying just the opposite. What what's the mechanism by which this happens? Well, it stimulates the economy it creates jobs So we live in an era where we're more things are being automated and and and people need jobs So this is actually a good time to be Adding jobs in an area that we're actually actually protect the environment Well, this takes us to learning from Sweden and I suppose there are other countries in Europe that are you know Very progressive about this sort of thing and recognize it more than the US But you know if you were going to look at if I made you David And I like to do this if I made you king of the universe and I'm doing that now for a moment What would you do to save the planet to save the species the human species? Well a couple of things well first of all common sense would say let's see Who who's made a work and follow their lead? So I look at what Sweden's done and implement some of the same aspects because it's working for them It's cutting emissions and Stimulating their economy Secondly if I had to do one thing that could probably change the source of Change the course of of the direction. It would be apply a price on carbon We can estimate reasonably that the price of carbon is at least $50 a ton the reason why is we can easily project 50 trillion in damages Well over the next say 50 years For the 1 trillion tons of carbon true added so to buy that and you get $50 a ton I actually believe it's more exponential. Maybe more like $150. So if we applied $150 a ton carbon carbon tax We actually know First of all would change the motivations. It wouldn't say it's not it's not illegal to emit carbon, but people would just buy smaller cars and and Of some be more economical to get solar panels on your roof And interestingly that that prices is market tested because because we have had oil That correspond that tax corresponds about 40 or $50 per barrel. We actually paid that much for For oil back around 2007 when you know if I raise the prices like crazy. So so we that's actually market tested Economic Incentive Except in this case, we wouldn't be paying someone else. We could actually apply those dollars to either cover the damages caused by by carbon emissions or for other Economic benefit well from a tipping point point of view, you know if you had Sweden doing a carbon tax Or maybe a few other countries in Scandinavia or continental Europe Whatever it is and being good about it being progressive and being disciplined about it That's probably not enough to save the world where where where do we go? I mean if you're a king of the universe How much of the world how many countries what percentage of all the nations and communities and societies would have to buy Into the notion of a carbon tax before we are in the clear Well, the US is a huge part of the the problem. We are 25% of all global emissions so we have control and and we're actually the one country not in the in the Paris Agreement agreed like working with all the other countries to lower emissions so we can control that 25% and Well, we'll receive the benefit both of both of that During during our own emissions and from other countries chipping and lowering theirs. Yeah, so it's um It's really very doable now. You mentioned saving the planet. Well, I mean the plan is gonna be fine It's kind of a there won't be any people around to talk about One thing I think people think about environmentalists is that we're all tree-huggers, but we actually do this for Humanity and for our country So the environment would actually be fine warming up and and just getting rid of people Yeah, it's it's it's really people in our lifestyle and and the quality of lives of our children that we're we're trying to Protect and being alive I mean so saving the planet isn't necessary the planet will be fine. It'll just become More and more painful to the point. Yeah, so but when you say 25% You know of the of the emissions are emanating from the United States And I you know, I'm asking about tipping point sounds to me like if the United States We get on board about this if the United States were adopted carbon tax if the United States would be as disciplined and Concerned about you know the species and the planet as Sweden is because of its 25% it would have a very Salient effect on the global process and if it joined cop 20 what is cop 22 or 3 whatever is happening now? You know and and got involved in the international discussion and Participated in the international initiative about this that would have a huge effect on the ability of humankind To deal with this problem to survive isn't it true? That's true I mean in years past the US was a leader amongst nations Now we're lagging behind. We're we're not leading anymore Yeah, and and we have that control with 25% of the missions being our own and influence over over other nations We as a country should be leading this effort Okay, so now we're at the end of our show David Vogel and I and I'd like you to talk to the American public for a moment. Okay, they're right behind camera one over there how Can they? Participate in in saving the planet or saving humanity on the planet and dealing with climate change What is the average Joe or the average J or the average David have to do? You know to get to a place where We couldn't we can have a reasonable response to climate change. Well, the first thing is Raise awareness be aware and that this is the number one issue vote in that Direction so that your politicians will will make waves in Washington And while we're and make try to influence you send this message to your friends and people, you know in terms of while we're waiting for Everybody to jump on board. There's lists of things you can do at home to be more efficient and less use less electricity NRDC for example NRDC.org has a good list of the top ten things you can do individually within your home and and driving habits to Lower your carbon footprint. So a lot lots can be done as an individual It's connected isn't it it's connected that you should speak to the government about it But you'd also practice it at home. It's a matter of ordering your own priorities to put this one on the top Wherever you go and whatever you do and that's correct and do it not just for yourself But for your children because this is a generational thing We all do what we think is best for our kids. This is truly what's best best for them talk about altruism Thank you so much David David. It's vocal vocal foundation. Thank you so much. Thank you