 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We are in a very fun spot in the sports calendar because right now we've got not just MLB Playoff races heating up. We've got NFL preseason cooking right now It's the FedEx Cup playoffs over on the PGA side of things. I'm excited for the NASCAR playoffs getting ready so we got the intersection a lot of fun sports going on right now and It's a great time to be a better because there's so much fun stuff to choose from no matter what your specialty may be You've probably got fun stuff going on. We're gonna go through Baseball for today and then recap so that we went through last week some good stuff over on the NASCAR side of things Hopefully you benefited from that We're gonna get you set for Mondays and they'll be slay talking money lines strikeout props and some dingers and hopefully Get you on the right way when in some cash to open off this new week in a fun time in the sports calendar Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the band will podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire calm here to break down the MLB slate for today And like I said, we'll also go through what went down last week here on the show We kept some more bets and then if I'll preseason and the NASCAR calendar and the field of dreams game as well All that right here. We'll try to keep the covering the past segments available when we can just depends on timing and stuff like that, but We'll try to squeeze that in for today's scheduling note for this week. We have the same show tomorrow We had last week on Tuesday pitching ninja on to break down his strikeout props of the day Branding a doula on to break down this week's PGA contest as PGA event as well Wednesday and fangal be in to break down some college football I think we're talking some future stuff there That should be a lot of fun then on Thursday I'm gonna record the podcast ahead of time because I'll be out Thursday Friday I will go through the Thursday MLB slate So I'll post that overnight to hopefully get you numbers before they move. I wish I could do this every day But schedule doesn't quite allow for it So I'll put that up Wednesday night to break down Thursday's MLB slate and I'll go through some NASCAR stuff there too So if you want to get some more NASCAR stuff, I'll want to get Thursday MLB breakdowns all that Thursday No show Friday because I'm gone Similar schedule next week going to Ireland for the Northwestern versus Nebraska game, which should be a whole lot of fun So we'll have shows Monday through Thursday this week get all those buys subscribing to the Covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well We'll dig into some MLB money lines for today in just one second But first NFL kickoff is still a few weeks away But you can get into the action now on faddle sportsbook with the NFL Super Bowl win bonus right now Anyone who places at least a $50 Super Bowl winner bets will get $5 back for each win your team has during the regular season There are also a ton of other futures markets available like the team win totals division winners player props and so many more There's no other place to get the football season started than on faddle America's number one sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus and president select states only bonus issued is non With trouble free bets that expire seven days after a seat max free bet $50 Restricts his apply see terms at sportsbook dot faddle comm gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit faddle comm slash RG in Arizona 100 next step or Texan except if I 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Chat in Indiana 109 with it in Louisiana one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in New York When it's seven seven eight hope and wire text open Y in Tennessee call the red line at one eight hundred eighty nine nine seven eight nine In Wyoming one eight hundred five two two forty seven hundred in West Virginia one eight hundred gambler net Let's take into this MLB Monday slave There are two money lines right now where my numbers are showing some value Those are on the twins at minus 198 versus the Royals and on the Mariners at minus 104 Facing off of the age Let's start here with the twins because there's a slightly bigger edge on this one relative to my numbers I've got the twins at 69.7 percent to win this game. They're implied win odds at minus 198 or 66.44 They did move and you might be able to catch some minus 195 minus 190 still out there So check around to see what you can get because Fando moved Shockingly right for according to minus 198. So check to see what your best number available is in the twins But even at minus 198. I do like it the run line here is Plus 102 for the twins to cover minus one and a half and I am going to go at the run or the the money line here over the run line And it's the same discussion we had last week where I always want to bet into the lower hold market And this is still the lower hold market in this game the money line versus the run line That's one thing and second the twins offense isn't as good against lefties as righties Facing chris boobage for today That does hurt them the smidge in terms of being able to win this game Comfortably versus winning this game by just a run or less Joe ryan has had some rough outings recently for sure But I think those were against the Dodgers and the Padres when he's had plus matchups ryan's been pretty good Throughout this season and this is a plus matchup for sure this royals offense They've got some guys. I like some of their young hitters, but they're not the same lineup They were when they had ben intendee merafield, etc, etc The twins they're back at home bullpen is improved post deadline I think they're worth it at minus 198 here and if you're listening here, it shifts to minus 200 I think that even minus 205 I'd be okay with taking this one of my numbers which still still show value there So even minus 205 I'm okay with it with the twins on the money line for today versus the royals But 191 98 right now is good check around to see what the best number for you is there The meritors are popping for a couple different reasons The first one is I love louise castillo. We'll talk about him in a separate section. No spoilers, but I'm also not sure how much lee show hey, otani is going to be getting For the next couple of weeks the angels are super super out of it And they've cut back on his pitch count his past couple of stars, which makes total sense. Why would you burn? Bullets on a show. Hey, otani in a year where you're not going to the playoffs So I think the angels should do that despite the fact. I selfishly want to watch otani for as long as possible I think they probably should do it and it seems like they might be based on his recent pitch count, so That's one thing here and everything outside of otani Favors the mariners here. They have an elite bullpen. They have a better offense than the angels do right now I've got the mariners at 52.7 percent to win this game versus 50.9 it implied So it's less value than the twins but I actually feel better about this one personally than I do about the twins Uh, so the mariners minus 104. I feel good about that. I'd bet them down to minus 110 Just because the factors I mentioned my numbers are viewing otani as being a full go effectively except for his pitch count is down That's the one thing where I'm not, you know Not expecting a full otani there if I account for maybe 10 fewer pitches from otani that would skew things a bit more towards Seattle So favorite money line of the day is Seattle minus 104 But I do like the twins at minus 198 as well Again, I would go with the mariners down to minus 110 and the twins down to minus 205 or so Let's stick with that mariners game as we transition here to some strikeout props for today The one that does pop for me and I'm willing to bet is Luis Castillo And I specifically want to go to the alternate market here over on fan You can go, uh, you can bet Over three plus, you know three plus strikeouts four plus strikeouts, etc For Castillo specifically today. I want to take him to get a plus strikeouts at plus 132 And Castillo opened this morning at fan to up at seven and a half his his number was seven and a half And it went down to six and a half Once other books opened and had Castillo strikeout props at six and a half People saw the discrepancy that the undrawn fan duel pushed that number down a fan duel to six and a half I'm not really sure it should have been the case because Castillo goes crazy deep into games. He has gone 180 or more pitches in five of his past seven starts He went 103 in one of the exceptions the one game where he didn't go super deep in the game Not a hundred plus pitches was his final start at the Reds and they were trying to trade him So why would you have him go? 116 pitches when you're trying to move this guy and might get less in return if he happens to get hurt going deep in the game Basically, they just let him go as long as he wants and Castillo is racking up strikeouts He's had eight or more strikeouts in five of those seven games Despite facing the Yankees three separate times in that stretch He did go over seven and a half in two of those three starts versus the Yankees specifically I've got a projected for 8.57 strikeouts for tonight So when you put someone there He typically would get to eight strikeouts about 55 percent of the time So I should be good with plus money It's just a question of whether or not I can get a better number later on My guess is that now that fan duel is in line with other books The action should be more even here So I would not expect this number to keep on length of me But with that said I took it at plus 126. It is lengthened to plus 132. So clearly I didn't read that well there, but It's plus 132 right now. I think that again, I was cool with it at plus 126 I'd expect it to Push back that direction as the day goes along If you see it where it keeps on lengthening it over at a plus strikeouts That probably means I had a bad read on the market So proceed with caution like if it's plus 140 we notice this later on that could be a concern Maybe then you Lower enthusiasm around castillo a bit But personally I think that this number is too low and so with it being plus 132 right now I do like the the eight plus strikeouts for louise castillo for today facing the angels a high strikeout offense Gaia goes deep in games. I think all that adds up really well to make him a quality strikeout prop bet for today His over odds in my model at six and a half are pretty solid So I don't mind if you want to go that route want to go with over six and a half versus the alternate market, but I think this is a spot where Swinging for the fences is worth it. And I would like to do so via castillo for today So the official recommendation for me is over A plus strikeouts, which is plus 132 at vandal right now The other number I'm monitoring right now and have not actually Taken yet is carlos carasco five and a half strikeouts over at vandal. It's minus 112 right now I was kind of hoping this number would go the other way because I've got carasco around 57 to go over five and a half strikeouts So There is a bit of value The reason I didn't bite when it was minus 106 was because the Braves did just see carasco two starts ago So there isn't familiarity here. It's also hot in Atlanta for today. He's on the road If that number were to move the other way like let's say it gets to even money Which i'm thinking it probably won't now that it's minus 112 I might bite at that point, but You know about five percentage points of value right now on carasco versus number I think I'd want a little bit more before diving in So if you have more confidence in carasco than I do you're not worried about familiarity anything like that I think that over five and a half is very much in play I mean personally i've not done it yet because I do want to see if it'll move the other direction I want more of an edge relative to what my numbers say in order to account for some subjective concerns that I have just based on You know narratives familiarity road stuff like that So not biting yet, but this one i'll monitor and if you have more confidence in carasco I would not dissuade you from buying in there As far as home run props for today go We talked last week about the Orioles versus Yusei Kikuchi and They get a rematch in canada for today So i'm okay going back to the Orioles here the one bummer is that anthony santander Didn't go to toronto last time because of vaccination status I would bet he's probably not changed his stance since then so he's probably not going to play Santander is probably one of the guys I would turn to in theory if I were to bet the Home run prop market, but I'm assuming as of right now that he's probably not going to play for today The one guy who could be kind of interesting is Ramon Arias He's plus 450 a fandal. You can get him at six to one in some spots I would not bet him at fandal, but I would check him out other places because Arias has A 44 fly ball right versus lefties makes good hard contact as well I would probably give him the biggest sniff. I also would check out Ryan McKenna He's plus 520 at fandal, but plus 850 in some other spots. So again, you know shop around find the best number Ryan McKenna, it's probably not going to be a fandal based on what I'm seeing right now But McKenna has good numbers against lefties. He gets lead off against them or he has passed a couple of times So I do like McKenna I would say though this depends on the house rules of your sportsbook because most places fandal included Will allow the bet to stand if the guy records a plate appearance So let's say McKenna is not in the lineup, but wants to pinch hitting later on You're getting just that one plate appearance. I'd rather wait until he's officially in the lineup before biting in there You might get a worse number Slightly worse number, but that is okay. There are I believe some books where if he's not in the lineup, they'll refund it but fandal I know is um A a book where if he gets a plate appearance at all that bet will stand So know your house rules if it is a shop like fandal where the bet will stand if he is even in the lineup Then I'd hold off and see if he is in there specifically. He's batting lead off. I think then Even plus 700 600 or so would be a good number for McKenna But wait to see if he's in the lineup just to make sure he's a platoon guy and that could be a concern there Other spot. I don't mind for some home runs going back to the twins Facing off with chris bubic and bubic does let up a lot of hard contact not a big fly ball guy But a lot of hard contact So the guy i'm most into here is hosting miranda miranda Plus 480 to go deep on fandal actually think that's a pretty fair number because He's been smoking the ball recently. He's been in the ball really well versus he came back up He got sent down to triple a for like a day In may or june when rois louis came up. They sent down miranda for like a day He came back up and basically ever since then he's hit the ball really well Six home runs versus lefties this year in 89 plate appearances the batted ball numbers I think it's a 50 fly ball rate versus lefties 51 versus lefties versus 33 versus righties a lot of hard contact I think miranda's a really good hitter Plus 480. I actually would bite on again as always There's a big discrepancy and strikeout or a home run numbers from book to book So shop around see what you can find but I would buy it at plus 480 on miranda The home run for today for the twins my favorite number on the twins is miranda plus 480 I can always talk about some of the buyer bucks. We have a plus 290 a little bit short So, uh, I think miranda the guy of choice there As mentioned, I do want to try to keep going through The recaps the last week. We're gonna keep on doing that now We'll do that now go through some stuff from last week But that is all we have for baseball for today So let's go back through last week's shows on Tuesday We had brandy gajula on to talk about some golf. Uh, will zalatoris what a ride. Um I had him as my win pick over on our DFS show The heat check fantasy podcast and I'm trying to win this Season long battle versus brandon where we pick winners each week relative to their odds at fangirl sports book I was in the hole, but will zalatoris was my pick for last week 22 to 1 So I'm now ahead. There are only two events left. I'm not sure if I'll be able to hang on to that because Uh, brandon's pretty good at this. He's better at golf than I am I've just gotten lucky a couple of times which has helped me a lot His picks here on the show where scottie sheffler matt Fitzpatrick sung jam billy horschel Those are the the winners he liked for this one I like sheffler a lot too that one didn't work out, but I thought sheffler was a good pick I just picked zalatoris because like the odds better for that one there So, uh, no winners there, but hopefully I can hit a winner on the heat check again this week because I need the padding to uh to Pad my lead versus brandon in our win bets for each week The pre season dfs or pre season, uh betting show we had was with joe astrauski I can find him on twitter at joe astrauski. The first one we talked about was the cheese plus three and a half against the bears and Like close to cheese minus one and a half because of the patch from my home's news that he would play And the first half did hit so we talked to joe and he was like, hey in general you probably want to bet first halves in the pre season because You're kind of you don't really know what's going to happen in the second half You can kind of predict playing times stuff like that. So joe said bet first halves and bet the cheese Hopefully you did go that route because of the full game. The bears actually did cover so touchdown trevor simian Back in chicago back in his non native land the previous land Racking up the tutties. So touchdown trevor fully back. How dare you disrespect him joe? but If you got the first half number there you did win So hopefully you went with that one versus the full game spread But good closing line value for joe on that one joe like the cardinals plus two and a half against the bangles I don't close with plus one and a half and That one did cash both the full game and the first half So the cardinals good bet from joe there As they did do well versus the bangles there other one was dallas plus two and a half They actually closed the four and a half the wrong direction And then denver won that game. I believe 17 nothing they played really well the entire game so they won the first half one and then Held uh held court in the second half as well. So Depends on the market seat that hopefully you took joe's advice and did bet the uh The first halves for the cheese and the cardinals got in on that cheese number before I moved pretty steadily in their favor Good week from joe good to read from him with the way the markets will go even if the results weren't always Exactly what you were looking for but again, hopefully bet the first has there as far as my stuff from last week In the later on in the week on thursday We had the mlb feel the dreams game and some nascar stuff richmond. Uh, the feel the dreams game Did get the cubs money line at minus 102 Felt pretty good about that the entire time no real big sweat there The other one I had in that game was say asizuki did home run at plus 500 He had a double I think in his first plate appearance, but no home runs there So that one did not cash But we did get cubs minus 102 on the money line in that game for richmond The truck series race did not go well. I had ben rodes and grand endfinger to win both at 12 to 1 Rhodes went a lap down Been like in the third stage was really bad. He was not fast in practice didn't qualify. Well, it's bad Endfinger ran top four most of the night, but like Never really in contention. It was kind of just chandler smith versus john hunter nema check. So You know, he finished fourth. I think but like it didn't matter He wasn't it really in contention there made up for it sunday though because the bets recommended on the show were Joey Logano to win you not win, but he led 150 or six or so laps He also did finish top 10. I had that minus 135 that one cash Other bet recommended was kevin harvick to win at 16 to 1 kevin harvick won the dang race It was a lot of fun because the guys my model was highest on the entire week were kevin harvick. Joey Logano Logano dominated most of the race harvick dominated the final stage So we get the win there. I didn't have many bets on anybody not named harvick or logano For sunday's race didn't get the logano top five, which was kind of a bummer, but Still a really good week. So hopefully we can duplicate that Going forward in the show here good start with the harvick and logano bets at richman and we'll see what we can do for Watkins glade coming up this week. I think that is going to be a fun race for sure That's the way they have here for today again Check around on the mlb numbers. Make sure you're getting the best number as always have as many books as possible Of course, I'm wearing the fang will have but you know We want to preach the best practices here as always find the best number If stuff has moved to a point where I said it wasn't comfortable. I'd stay away You know, it's kind of the the deal with betting. You're not always going to get the Get in on the action before the number moves out of your favor. That's how it's going to go I'll try to get it where I can stream these mlb shows live on my twitter account I've not gotten there yet. I have to check with the tech people here at At number fire to see how I can get that going But we'll try to get that to try to get these numbers to you as soon as possible If you got any questions for me if numbers have moved in a weird way or moved to a point where you're questioning things Hit me up on twitter at gymsonus j i m s a n n e s more than happy to talk through things there and let you know If i'm okay with that number if a number has come down I did not discuss whatever it may be hit me up on twitter at gymsonus We can talk it out there. Also. Do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow We have brandy gadoula and pitching ninja rob freeman on talks of baseball talks of pga Gonna be a lot of fun Wednesday with that thing thursday talking mlb and nascar. It'll be a good week Looking forward to it once again. Good luck to you all tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duo podcast network