 Hello and welcome to Daily Debrief brought to you by People's Dispatch. I am Pragya. Western countries want to force Russia to sell its oil cheaper, but Russia says it won't ship oil to countries that try to impose the G7's price cap. Iran has reportedly disbanded a force that monitors women's attire, three months into a protest against compulsory veiling. And finally, the COVID-19 pandemic slowed the arms race, but the industry still grew in 2021, says a new SIPRI report. The G7 price cap on Russian oil has kicked in at $7 per barrel below the going rate. The European Union and Australia are part of this plan. But reports say Russia will ask companies not to supply oil at the enforced price. The cap applies to Russian oil shipped via sea on tankers that fly EU or G7 flags to any third country. Prashant from People's Dispatch has been tracking this discussion. Prashant, welcome to the show. Prashant, now sanctions have been the go-to measure ever since the Ukrainian conflict began. So can you talk about how they have worked or not worked? Right. So Pragya, there are two aspects here. We'll come to the cap first. But first of all, looking at the sanctions, they had a mixed impact in the sense that have they really affected Russia, it doesn't look like that. Because what Russia has done is that while sanctions were imposed, while there was this barrage of sanctions early on, Russia has nonetheless managed to find what you call other countries to buy its products. So in terms of supplies, for instance, in terms of oil and natural gas, oil especially, there's been a huge demand from India and China. And whatever in terms of quantity, there has been a decrease. At various points in the price of those various goods rose, Russia sort of made it up in terms of, say, because the price rises. Because earlier, because of COVID-19, prices for many of these products were very low. So the fact that there has been a price rise has enabled Russia to actually earn a decent amount, even despite the fact that the quantities may have come down a bit and the fact that they even give discounts. So for instance, I think in October, the numbers said that Russia got around 400 billion over the past year from oil and gas exports to Europe alone, despite all this happening. So that's one aspect to consider. So in the sense that the sanctions have not really had the impact that the United States and its Western allies hope which was that it could completely destabilize Russia's economy, lead to mass protests, maybe even some kind of change of government there because of public anger, which was really the hope that the West had. On the other hand, we of course, also need to note that this has caused problems worldwide. For instance, the lack of exports of grain, the lack of exports of fertilizers, these have affected supply chains across the world. Even small raw materials which are essential for various electronics equipment, all of this has affected supply chains across the world. That is what led to the Russia-Ukrain grain deal a few months ago, which is still ongoing. It has also led, for instance, inflation in many countries, especially countries in Africa, which are heavily dependent on grain from Russia and Ukraine, for instance. So all this together, it's had a, you know, it's been a mixed back, so to speak, but definitely not necessarily the impact that the Western countries hoped it would have. Now coming specifically to this oil cap just to explain what it is, it means that the arbitrarily, Western countries set a price cap of $60 for a barrel of crude. Now what this means is that if this crude oil is to be supplied using either tankers or insurance firms, very important, or credit institutions associated with the G7 in EU countries, it will have to be below this amount. That is what this price cap basically is. In the sense that if a country wants to buy this from Russia, buy a crude from Russia, it will have to be below $60 if it wants to use these tankers or credit institutions or insurance companies. That's what it really means. Now what kind of impact it will have? It's again difficult to say at this point. Russia obviously has completely rejected it, but there's also a bit of economics in this because there are reports, for instance, that Russian crude is anyway selling less than the $60 benchmark that they have set. So it's a really big question as to whether it's actually going to have too much of an impact in terms of Russian sales. Now we also know that in a few months, there's going to be a ban on, from Europe, a ban on European countries on importing Russian crude via sea as well. So they're basically setting up the next round in sanctions, so to speak. Right. So Prashant, to get this straight, this is not a ban that the EU and G7 are imposing on imports to their countries, but to any other country. Exactly. That's a very important point you make here because, and I think this also has something to do with the larger issue around sanctions that we've talked about multiple times on this show, which is this. It's one thing for countries to say that we are not going to import any oil from Russia or natural gas from Russia. We have disagreements with Russia. We believe Russia should be isolated, etc. But these sanctions basically have the possibility of basically saying that no country should do that if they want to use our resources, which is an entirely different ball game. And like I said, this is especially dangerous because of insurance institutions, credit institutions, tankers, etc. Which means that even countries which have nothing to do with Europe, if they somehow want to use insurance facilities, are stuck because they cannot import Russian oil. Now, countries like India and China, for instance, may be able to overcome some of these to various degrees. But for many other countries, it might be much more difficult. Right. So I think the larger issue here, the larger challenge here is really about whether this kind of sanctions regime, what does it really mean about the future of the world? And I think this is an issue which increasingly many countries are aware of, which is why there has been a general reluctance to back sanctions against Russia in various ways. Because for instance, if you notice that most countries have not voted for sanctions against Russia, OPEC plus the countries, the countries which produce oil, they themselves are not given into the Western demands to increase oil production. They have in fact said that we are going to cut down oil production. Because I think there's a general global concern that this unchecked regime of sanctions, this kind of wild west of sanctions, so to speak, where the United States and its allies can one day declare that, okay, X, Y, Z of your avenues in terms of international finance, accessing your own money, all of these are cut off. You've seen this in Afghanistan, you've seen this with Iran, you've seen this in Venezuela, we've seen this in so many countries, irrespective of whether you agree with your politics or not. The question of whether some countries have the right to impose these kind of overarching sanctions, which ultimately harm the people of those countries the most, is really a very important question today. And I think that is what has really come out within something like this oil cap, right? So because you can argue that Russia, the impact on Russia is probably not going to be that much. There might be some minor inconveniences, but I don't think Russia's revenues are going to be drastically affected because like I said, it has got India, for instance, as you know, has refused to agree to the cap one, and also has really increased its imports of Russian oil products in the intervening time. And in fact, there is also reports that processed, some of these processed products from India are now going to the West. So although the West is, you know, taking this high moral stance and saying, we're not getting anything from Russia, what they're actually doing is getting stuff from say countries like India, which are processing Russian crude. So all this together, I think really throws a very important question about, you know, what do you how do you understand sanctions in today's world? Can can a few countries basically completely dismantle as they can cite what are called rules based international orders, but can they entirely dismantle, you know, how trade and international commerce works in this way? That's really a big question. Right Prashant and Prashant, stay with us for another minute. Iranians have staged street protests since September against mandatory wailing for women. The protest started after 22 year old Maasa Amini died while the Ghashteh Irshad booked her for improper wailing. The Ghash patrols Iranian streets to find or arrest those who break a strict dress code. The protests and the crackdown have occupied world's attention for nearly three months. They became the justification for a fresh United States sanction on Iran as well. Now there are reports of a softening in approach. Prashant is here to talk to us about the news and its implications. So Prashant, what has the Iranian government done and why? Right now, it's a bit complicated in terms of media reports. We're getting all sorts of reports. I think that's an important factor we need to consider while talking about Iran in general. But what it does look like is one of its chief prosecutors in the month of Zeri has made a statement which said that they have been sort of dismantled or consigned to where they came from, something like that. We're talking about what are called the guardian patrols, which are referred to as a morality police. The more accurate term is guardian patrols, which basically go around correcting people, especially women, for what are called infringements of the dress code. Now obviously this is a barbaric institution. There's no two questions about that. And the anger that these patrols caused has been pretty obvious. There have been many mass, much a large part of the mass protests have been, of course, around this issue. But whether this will is going to be completely dismantled, whether it's going to be returning in a new form, that as of now is very much uncertain. What we do get are a lot of conflicting reports. Some people have given slightly elliptical statements in some authorities. Some other reports indicate that various sections of the establishment are looking at some of these laws regarding dress codes, whether they want to modify them or not, whether there has to be some kind of easing or not, or whether it's even easing is really a question remains to be seen. But all in all there is as of now a bit of uncertainty about it. I think the regime is also sort of trying to do a balancing act where it appears like it also is trying to address some of the demands of the protesters. But it also does not want to give the sign that it is backpedaling too much, less that it's more conservative support based for instance be upset or take umbrage or whatever. So I think that also maybe explains some of the contradictory statements that are there. There have been some reports that these Guardian patrols intensity or frequency may have come down at least in some areas. So overall I think the regime is also in the midst of sort of calibrating how its approach should be in this kind of a context. We also know that the protests have gone up and down. There have been various sections that are engaged in the protests. There is one section of course which is you know has been raising this issue. There have been other sections and a lot of other interests who also use this opportunity to sort of push their own agendas as well undoubtedly no questions about that. So I think that's where we are at right now. It will depend in the I do not expect that there's going to be an official announcement that you know we have withdrawn X or we have taken this reform measure etc something on those lines. What is more probably likely to happen is that you might see some changes in direct implementation on the ground as far as the ground is concerned and some sort of a contradictory statements which give the impression to both people inside and people outside that there is some rethinking on this issue. Alright so but it'll remain a sort of situation in a flux for a while now. Absolutely, absolutely. In the sense like I said I think that you know there are multiple aspects over here. There is no doubt about the fact that you know there is a legitimate grievance. People did take to the streets to express their anger of course issue beginning with the issue of the dress code but also many other issues that they have highlighted about the nature of the regime etc etc no questions about that. There is also no doubt about the fact that there have been internal forces which have sort of seen this as an opportunity to push more extreme agenda. Some of the violence has been attributed to that also. There are multiple there are varying reports about the you know death count. There are some the internal Iranian authorities say that 200 people have died. They're calling these riots of course external organizations say 400 people have died. Now there like I said they have been attacks on state authorities as well. They have been attacks from extremist groups as well. We also know that outside there is a vibrant constancy of people who are using this specifically to push for the change of the regime. A lot of these fueled by western agents and western media houses as well we've seen a lot of that reporting which makes it automatically very difficult to sort of you know piece through these reports and identify it. So very complicated situation right now still I think very you know difficult to say what's happening. We do know that there have been some calls for protests as now as well. Right. And you know so it depends to be seen what kind of a why what kind of a equilibrium will be achieved at this point of time. We do know that the protests are not as huge as what happened in 2009 or even a few years ago because of gas shortage and various issues. So where this round of protests pushes the state to and how the state responds are definitely you know questions that are made to be seen. On the other hand we do know that like I said outside there is an entire constancy of people who are really looking at this as an opportunity to sort of push some of their definitely vested interests as well. Right Prashantya we need to see some of those statements now and just back with you in another minute. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute or CIPRI has reported sales of arms and military services grew nearly two percent in 2021 that was a year of lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic which spelt immense hardship for people around the world. The report has also found that the west has given ammunition and other military supplies to Ukraine in the war with Russia but the United States may struggle to replenish its supplies as supply chains are yet to return to pre-COVID levels. Who bought arms and why Prashantya is here to tell us. So Prashant what does the report tell us about the global arms tree right now. Right so CIPRI is a very important source of a lot of this information because I think every in April and December especially they release reports which chronicle various aspects of the global arms industry we can talk about some of the earlier reports as well. This one had to do actually with the top hundred arms manufacturing companies how they're fed in 2021 and you know what have been their patents etc. So the numbers are quite interesting in fact so it says that the hundred largest companies reached 592 billion in terms of sales in 2021 that's an increase of around 2% compared to 2020 in real terms. Now the breakup of these companies is what is quite interesting because again it shows that 51% of this of this global arms weapon sales are by US companies 40 of the top hundred are US companies and the top five for quite some time actually have been the the top five have been US companies which are Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing, Northrop Gunman and General Dynamics. These five have maintained their top five position. It's a dubious rank list to be part of but nonetheless they have remained in this top five position for quite a long time. So these companies basically pretty much you know are the engine of US military expenditure as well and like I said these and 35 other companies cons up there in the top hundred. Now we do know that these companies like I said they've also seen a slight increase the increase is not as much as they would have expected because of the impact of inflation but they still very much remain on top of the list and now if you look at for instance in Europe there are 27 of the top 100 are from Europe their sales have increased by 42% and 21 of the top 100 are from Asia and Oceania as well. So these you know so these around 60 from these three regions make up the bulk of the arms industry. So I think the larger point we're sort of really seeking to make is that you know two things are there one is that we are not crossed COVID-19 or COVID-19 is still very much a part of our reality people still dying in large numbers and so protests in China debates about the zero COVID policy we know that thousands have died November alone due to COVID in the United States for instance which is often less talked about and there is a steady death toll that continues to take place which we don't talk about too much these days because we've kind of got used to it so at this point of time the fact that you know the arms industry is still thriving at this rate at while at the same time you know issues of health issues of hunger issues of poverty issues of malnutrition education all of these people are struggling for lack of funds is I think really the big you know question that's before us I mean we just have the COP 27 summit that took place where countries were begging basically absolutely for money countries were pleading saying that our societies are being destroyed why can't you give us a hundred billion dollars a year they were asking the rich countries which they haven't given yet although they promised and then you look at this number which is what is the number it's 592 billion and just for hundred companies right that is the sales so that's so on the one hand you have just a hundred billion that was needed per year to actually address many of these issues not all of them of course many of them but that was not delivered where on the other hand these companies hundred companies alone sold arms worth 592 billion in the year so that really asks the question about our priorities right and this is the value of their sales it's not like is their revenue exactly so Prashant what did the earlier reports tell us about the situation in the arms trade right so like I said each report covers various aspects so if you look for instance at the April 2022 report that was again on global spending and it said that again world military spending in 2021 reached 2.1 trillion dollars again look at the numbers I'm talking about when you talk about climate or when you talk about hunger the amount you need to actually address global hunger is just a fraction of this amount and again one must note that this if you look at the fact that this is the United States spending is around I believe 800 billion dollars or something the next is China which is around 239 billion India's third at 75 billion so that itself shows the difference between the first and the second spend itself is a massive difference right and you know this again just just isn't the case of the hundred top companies in as in the April report shows that global spending also rose for the seventh consecutive year with China the United Kingdom also being in the top five so again I think this really is a question of priorities it's a question of you know what we're doing together as a planet Russia Ukraine war of course is a key element here that really needs to be talked about addressed but I think even in 2021 there was no war in 2020 there was no war right it's not that at that time global military spending declined and you know we have fresh theaters that are coming into being we know for instance by after talking on the show that the Korean Peninsula has become a flashpoint we know that Japan is thinking of remilitarizing we know that tensions have been rising in Southeast Asia because of US interventions as well so all this together really sort of I think the spending really makes us ask these questions right Prashant and thanks a lot for joining us today and that's all we have for today thank you for watching daily debrief do come back to us tomorrow and for more stories like these visit our website peoplesdispatch.org and follow us on Instagram Facebook and Twitter