 Welcome traders to this week's weekly market live analysis and trade session with me, Patrick Munley. Just going to give it another 20 seconds here, let people get in. If you can hear me and you can see the Tick Mill welcome screen on your screen. If you could type a Y in the chat box that would be great so that I know we're ready to roll. Okay, so that's one o'clock UK time, and we are going to get going here. So, before we do jump into today's content, as always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer, importantly for today's presentation, the views expressed by me or opinions expressed by me here today are solely mine. They are not indicative or representative of Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe limited, just to be clear on that. For those that are here for the first time today, a brief introduction to myself, my name is Patrick Munley and after I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. After a couple of years learning the ropes I left with some colleagues and went on to co found and successfully exit a consulting startup post a merger in late 2004. I then moved on to explore my passion for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands I started day trading or more appropriately day gambling the S&P 500. After some early beginner's luck I racked up some pretty solid gains, however, as is often the case, my beginners luck ran out. As the market phase changed I began to average down into what would prove to be significant losing positions. Obviously giving back all my gains and experiencing a six figure financial hit to my personal capital. I got wrenching and sobering experiences and understatements, and it was at this point I really have to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trading track record, working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years. Which I not just my technical game in terms of researching and developing a strategy that suits my personality extensively back and forward testing that strategy and developing a rigorous risk management approach to underpin it. Most importantly, during this period of mentorship I significantly developed my mental game. And probably the most important watershed shift I made was from being a highly goal orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process oriented. What does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset, understanding the true nature of trading being a numbers game, in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose that emotional investment and a hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or a string of trades. My focus is on the next hundred trades because I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. So 2013 I've been managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering annual positive returns and you can see the performance data for that on the screen. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi million dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've also personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experienced levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. I've consulted numerous brokers and trading education brands contributing written content, webinars and live presentations on a range of topics from market analysis to trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also resident market expert Tick Mill where I provide daily market analysis and trade analysis. So you can actually access this through the Tick Mill blog posts are made each day or you can put your email into the email window there and subscribe and you'll get the updates delivered directly to your inbox. Another passion project is as head of trading and trading education for a leading trading education brand called fxchriswap.com. We offer both development and funding more importantly to retail trading talent. For fxchriswap we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through a structured program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share with those that are interested. You can see on the screen there there's a number you can call the trading desk in London, or you can email the guys to request further information about what it is we do at fxchriswap. They will get back to you at a timely fashion with with all the relevant information. So that's that's a flavor of where I'm coming from and now let's jump into the charts. Before we go through looking at some specific charts that I've marked up with where I see some potential opportunities. But I thought we do today because I've had a bunch of questions with respect to how I identify potential trade locations I talk quite often about symmetry swings quality swings, Fibonacci timing levels. So what I thought I'd do is I'd get rid of the the markup here that I've got on the dollar index chart because this is the one I've been tracking very closely at the moment. What I do is actually walk you through how I identify potential trade location or potential action area. And, and so then you can start to see how it is. I develop or understand where the potential opportunities are with respect to the market. So this is the dollar index. This is the broad based dollar index versus six other currency pairs. So if you want to track the dollar index or certainly to understand where the dollar is is because the dollar is responsible for the majority of transactions within the global foreign exchange market. So if you're going to be trading any of these major FX pairs, the major counterpart is always going to be the dollar. And so to really understand and grasp positioning the sentiment within the market, you always want to have a finger upon where the dollar index or certainly have an idea what phase the dollar is in, and that will inform then your trading with respect to, to these other FX majors so this is the just pulling up the recent phase of price action in the dollar so as we can see here the last swing was in the end of September, we had a down draft corrective phase here, and then we broke down again, and, and also we made a low here at the beginning of the year. And so, when I look at this chart, what I'm looking for is the is what I want to identify is the last impulsive move. So when I talk about the positive move it means that the last trend move within the market and so clearly to my, or to my mind anyway, we have this swing high here and then we have this breakdown. And so this is the last impulse leg that we have. And so when I talk when I'm thinking about impulse legs what I ideally want to be able to do is identify a swing and an earlier wave cycle. So I did, I don't get into, you know, I'm not losing my mind about being able to identify the earlier wave structure what I want to be able to do is identify or be able to eyeball the, you know, an ideally a five, five wave structure. And then that's going to give me the impulse leg that we're currently potentially trading against. So this is the last down move that we saw in terms of the dollar index heading into this January low. Once we've got this piece of information here in terms of the last trend move, then what we're thinking about is a corrective phase. With respect to corrections, what we're looking for is at a minimum ideal is going to be a 50, about a 50% correction of the last leg down. So if we bring in the fit tool here, and we just overlay that versus our swing high and our swing low. And then what we're going to be looking for is how price corrects against that that impulse move. And more often than not what we're looking for is a three wave corrective move. Okay, so that in an early way in terms it's a it's what they're referred to as an ABC move. And what I like to also do to help give me some targets with respect to those corrective moves is identify the last corrective leg in terms of a symmetry swing. But what I mean when I talk about a symmetry swing is I'm looking at this phase of price action here. So we have this was the last major correction prior to the move to the downside so what I'm anticipating is in terms of scope and scale once we've got this low in place. So the working idea what I'd like to see is in is a symmetry swing in terms of the certainly the price movement more often than not you'll they'll be replicated in time but certainly the price level is of interest to me. So once I, once I've got that, and I'm able to identify that swing. So let's say, what's called the trend based fib extension tool, and I just overlay that versus the swing low. And so that gives me another price target. So, just to recap, I'm looking for a minimum of 50% retracement. So what I'm looking for, ideally a test of the lot of a symmetry swing objective. And also what I'm looking for is what I call an equality objective and the quality objective is simply an equidistant swing so once we have a swing high and a reaction low in this, I'm overlaying the extension tool to measure an equality move versus this swing here against the swing low. So in this instance the quality move would have taken us up to 9176. We don't necessarily always trade to the PIP into that area but certainly within 10 PIPs or so if we see a reaction there, then that provides an interim trading opportunity. And you can see here we traded up just shot we got to 9162 we were looking for 9176 got this bearish outside reversal candle, and we rolled over. What's important here is, and I cover this in many of the weekly market reviews that I do, is that we didn't make a new low in price before the RSI stochastic started to check up again, and we took out the prior swing here. So what that suggests to me then is that I need to remeasure my equality swing versus the new swing low. So let me just get rid of that. And what we want to do is we want to pull this down to here, and this over to here, and then we get a new target level. So now you can see I was starting to build out this area where we potentially see price heading, and what where the area of interest for us now is at this 92 level of 50% of trades from just ahead of 92 got the symmetry swing at 9211. And then we've got the equality objective versus ABC at 9209. So we've got this, this cluster of fib ratios and swings and quality swings all lining up in this target zone. And what you would bear in mind is I was we were tracking this level from the point that we that we made this low and took out this swing high. So obviously this, you know, you can see, this is somewhat retrospective or high with hindsight here, but if you go back through my videos on the technical website, you'll see how I was identifying this well in advance, I was trading into this area. Now another tool you can use to help pinpoint where these potential reversal areas are likely to transpire is what's called a fit based time extension. And so it's really just using the same logic if we're looking at fiber tracements and fib extensions that it makes sense that fit time extensions should also come into play. And so what we have here is the fib tool that extends from this swing high to this swing low into the future with respect to a time frequency. So where we trade up here into the week, well we exceed the 50% retracement we trade just side of the 61.8% retracement and notably we're trading just around the 61.8% fib extension in terms of time from this swing low. So this zone here, so we come, we come within a day basically of touching that, and within a couple of ticks of touching the 61.8% retracement, and we get this big outside reversal camera. So what we had here, what you can, what you're able to achieve in advance is identify really a window. You can see. So if we think in terms of our minimum objective for a retracement from a fit retracement perspective, being the 50% level, and then we think in terms of the time zone that we're watching. So what we're really looking at is this 61.8% retracement, 61.8% extension in time, and then we have this cluster of fib retracement in terms of price, all suggesting that we should see the order is a high potential or high probability for retracement to occur or for this move, this corrective move to terminate in and around this 92 to 92.50 area. This purple line here represents the projected monthly range resistance. So that's an additional tool above that we just have the, the orange line which represents weekly projected range resistance. What we're going to do is build or give ourselves a zone where we're likely to see this corrective move potentially terminate. Okay. And by the time we get up here the RSI stochastic is into overbought territory. And we're starting to see the psych run into resistance as well. And then we get this big outside reversal candle. Or versus, or how I trade anyway, and that's what I'm looking for these reversal candles in these high probability or high potential reversal zones. And then once we see that, then we've got our signal in terms of potential for this correction to be completed. And you can see what we've seen a bit of a sell off here in the dollar at the moment looks like we'll probably get down now and test monthly range, sorry weekly range support down to that 90 130. But knowing this and knowing and having this information about the dollar about the dollar index, then you can, then you can sit then you can start to think to yourself right if this is what's happening in the dollar. And this means this should mean in theory that pairs like the euro sterling Aussie Kiwi Swissie are all likely to be finding some strength. So I can't find the range level indicator and that's the range level indicator is here. I'll just pull this up for you guys and you can find it. The range indicator on on trading you there is ADR high loan, and then that will give you these weekly and monthly, and you cannot if you go down into intraday charts will also give you daily range resistance levels. So that's how I identify these areas where corrections are likely to terminate. And so then that sets up a high probability trading zone or trading or potential trading zone to pay attention to So that makes sense to everyone if you've been able to follow along, could you just type a Y in the chat box that I know that that I've explained that to the best of my ability. Good stuff. Okay, so with that said, the dollar index has reversed from from this area we've also got also bring in a trend line here. We've just advanced about trend line. And so what we anticipate now, if we look at a trend line here as well, is that certainly we can get down into the weekly range support is the next downside objective. Through there we look for and this is in terms of in terms of the trading as well this is important when you're thinking about targets and you're thinking about objectives for your trades. The same principle in terms of using these prior swings is useful for identifying your targets because that you're getting a realistic expectation of what's possible for the next move. So these range levels work really well in terms of identifying targets. And then once you get beyond the range levels and the pivots, then you can think about testing trend lines. So that's pulling back here. Let's just start. I've got a bunch of charts marked up here where I see potential opportunities. I'm just going to run through these now. S&P 500 trading into weekly range resistance. Here's another example where we held the equality objective and I'll just draw this in for you so you can see what I mean, talked about this few weeks ago, but just to follow up on what we were talking about. And what the objective is A, B, C, sorry, A, B, and this is the C leg 3733 and we traded to 3720 before reversing. We've now taken out this trend line resistance. So we watch now to see how price reacts at weekly range resistance. If we get through there, then we should expect to trade up into monthly range resistance and the ascending trend line here. So we're looking at 20, 20, 40, 30 as the upside objective for the S&P 500. Bullish testing weekly range resistance. We can get through this weekly range resistance. Then the next upside objective is going to be these prior highs, 13,358, and the monthly range resistance, 13,444. We've seen the Dow Jones is taking out now this projected ascending trend line resistance. Note that we've had one or two, three, four. This is the fifth test of that trend line. And for those who are on the trading to the FX Korea swap trading to with me, I always pay attention to the third test. The fourth test is like likely to be the precursor for a break. So I've been looking for the Dow Jones trade up now into 33,000 territory. The DAX in Germany. Now the DAX is making a third test of this ascending trend line. We have the monthly range resistance 14,600. We have the weekly R3 at 14,600. So what I'm actually looking for here in the DAX is the potential for a pullback in terms of in terms of the DAX. We've got some nice momentum divergence down here. So watching for bearish reversal patterns here. And I think we could see, we could see a bit of a corrected phase in the DAX talks about the dollar. Check in with these 10 year yields. These yield charts are very important at the moment. It's driving a lot of the price action. And we can see that we're correcting here. I'm watching now for a test of this, this ascending trend line support. This is really defining the strength of the current trend. So any move back into this 140 area, what's for bullish reversal patterns. And I think we could be looking for the next leg to the upside in terms of these yields, ultimately looking for a test through 2%. The key to whether or not this this move is going to be terminating at current levels will really be is if we took out trend line support and the monthly pivot back down here at 136. That would suggest that we're heading back into the prior range at 130. But for now we made bullish these yields. We're going to be holding on 40 support. Silver. Sorry, gold bounce from the support area that we talked about this ascending trend line support. Watch now for resistance at this 1760 bearish reversal patterns here, I'd be looking at short positions to test the equality objective. And then talking about these equal legs so we have a B, and then the C is 1653. And then from there I think we could see a more meaningful correction certainly getting up to test 1800 silver. I'm running myself at the moment, looking for a move up to retest basically this 30 level in silver, and, and ultimately, we probably see a pullback from that third test, then on the fourth and the fifth test I'm actually looking for silver to break out to the right side versus this ascending triangle pattern that we're currently trading in in terms of silver crude. I'm still still looking for a test of this ascending trend line be the third test, and that will be a buy zone for me but nothing to do at the moment. I'm still consolidating but holding support at the 390 level and while it does, I think we get up into the top side of this projected ascending trend channel 460 is the level to watch there in terms of copper Bitcoin. I had a good week is testing the top side of the box now so we'll see here if we break out through prior resistance, then that's going to set up a test of this 60,000 level terms of weekly range resistance at the yearly R3 at 63,000 weekly R3, so this is the next target zone, if we can get through prior highs in terms of Bitcoin and would negate the idea that we get another swing down here looks like we will extend, but pay attention, we're seeing some significant momentum divergence develop. And so this next leg up could proceed a more significant correction in terms of Bitcoin, but ultimately still bullish. Dolly one pulling back from weekly and monthly range resistance, I'm looking for a test now monthly range support and the monthly pivot at 646, and that could potentially set up the next leg to the upside. So what are we trading this over here. Yeah. I got in order to sell this through these prior lows here at 10820 think we can easily get down into 10770 as potential support for the next leg higher and or potentially roll over and get a deeper pullback into monthly projected range support down at 10635 Swissy, I'm currently short this one versus this outside rejection candle and again thinking in terms of the dollar index and the potential for the dollar correction to be complete. I guess that the Swissy would also be be pulling back so we'll, we'll see how this one develops looking certainly for a test of 9211 and the monthly pivot from above at 9185 will be will be key then could set a base there for the next leg to the upside, but like I say short at 10635 euro. I'm currently long. Again, we came into an equal legs objective. So we had this is a BC and you can see, we basically traded to the people most and got some decent buying developing without trading into the weekly pivot seeing some profit taking we've got the ECB, the guard speaking likely to see a bit of volatility, but trades risk free for me now we'll see I'm looking for a test ideally at 120 here and then we'll see how the market responds but another example there of these equality objectives playing out. Here again. I'm looking for a test of the top side here 13050 area got weekly projected range resistance 168 extension of this price swing and the trend channel resistance so watch our price response here I think there's an opportunity to do something on the short side, looking for a move back into that 127 15 127 70 area. This, this one tested that big weekly trend line that I was watching with that since made an equal legs correction back into 8556 watching for bullish reversal patterns here to potentially do something on the long side. I was looking a bit more promising earlier a little bit week now but again, what I'm always paying attention to here is the close these are daily candles and I'm watching the closes only. You're all say this is a short I've got running. Again, this is, this is risk free. And again, thinking in terms of quality objectives, sorry, thinking in terms of both the quality objectives and being able to identify the trend moves. So where we have a wave one and two what I'm always looking for is once I've got a way for high in place, then I'm looking at a minimum for wave five to be equal to wave one. So in this instance as well. We can also look at the fifth extensions. So we get a 161 extension of the way for which coincides with the quality objectives so my target for this move now will be a test of this, this 149 19149 60, and it also brings in this descending trend line support as well. So the question fires about the euro Aussie. Hopefully that's, hopefully that's clear. Sterling looking for a test of weekly range resistance 140 34 from there I think we could see the potential for a pullback back into this, this zone here, the pivot cluster, and then maybe we set a base for the next leg to certainly test retest range highs with the potential to trade up into monthly range resistance 144 sterling yen. The area of interest for me is this trend line and weekly range resistance 152 to 152 50 watching for bearish reversal patterns there similar idea to the euro yen watching for reversal patterns to play for a correction to retest trend channel support 148 and month sorry weekly range support 149 Aussie. Seeing an upswing here, watch how we trade at this 78 just above 78 we've got weekly range resistance we've got the underside of this prior trend line support might might see a bearish reversal pattern here for a pullback. If we get through there then all bets are off and we should trade higher and ultimately get up into the 82 level for the Aussie Aussie yen. This one looks like it's going to retest prior highs on route to the monthly range resistance at 8750 Kiwi. We should test the 73 level and then there's a potential for maybe some head and shoulders type price action and some consolidation here. One trade the other trade I've got running at the moment is this Kiwi yen which I'm long. We're testing weekly range resistance if we get through there that I'm looking for a retest of range highs on route to move up into the 80 level, but again risk free position running there from last night. And the other one that's of interest here just last but not least is the cad yen. I'm looking for it to test its trend line resistance monthly range resistance and weekly range resistance 8680 is the area to watch bearish reversal patterns there and I will be looking for the cad yen on the short side. So that's a short this week this week as I as I want to tune in to listen to what Madam the Guard has to say at ECB in in a few minutes time. Are there any questions equally if there aren't any questions and in the chat box is useful so that I know where we're all on the same page and everyone's. Yeah, and I do think the dollar index has potentially completed three waves and is heading back down. So you'll have to you'll have to watch the recording fires, but essentially I'm short the euro Aussie, and I think we're, we're heading to a target zone of 149 90s, which would complete a fifth wave in this in this trend move. Thank you so much everyone for your time. I hope this was useful and we'll reconvene at the same time next week. Have a great week guys.