 My work as a futurist is about four sides, it's not about predictions. You may not know that many futurists, but of course there's famous ones like Alvin Toffler or Paul Sappo or Ray Kurzweil. My work is more short term fused, usually this is why I'm not talking about 2040 but only about 2020 because my work just doesn't span that far. So four sides is what it's all about. If you want to follow me, I'm G Leonhard on Twitter and a green futurist for my green topics. And of course my various websites, I'll show you at the end, but you can easily find me on the web, check out Gertube.com for my YouTube videos. So 2020, it's funny, it's hard to make a prediction. If you look at Thomas Watson, the chairman of IBM, who said I think there's a world market for maybe five computers, clearly he was wrong. So it's actually not that hard, not that easy to predict, but 2020 is pretty close. I give him my best shot. First of all, I think what we're seeing right now, John Algerton wrote a great book called Zero Notes and he says that the world of nine billion people by mid-century will demand fundamental changes in our mindsets, behaviors, cultures and paradigms. And I think one big shift in that as part of that is the shift to a carbon neutral energy world and also to a world of collaboration and hyper collaboration rather than hyper competition. I mean, if you're looking on a global scale, nine billion people within the next 10 years say, you know, that is going to force us to radically change how we consume, what we eat, how we drive, how we fly. And this is going to be substantial changes all the way across the board, not just driven by technology, clearly, but also driven by the subsequent habit changes. Check out the book Zero Notes and this is basically talking about how we have to go to zero for some of those things that we used to go to 104. Donkey Moon, the UN Secretary General, already said several times that the global suicide pact that we have right now is based on the old model of development and I conclude that basically business as usual is dead and of course this may be good news for Brazil because you can reinvent stuff. The other thing is I think that David Corden from Yes Magazine quoted several times, you know, we're heading into a suicidal economy which turns in circles until it explodes and that needs to change and I have a term for this, I call this the move from ego to ego and if you take those two things, you know, of course that's the ego mind here, the industrial mind, the polluting mind, so to speak, and then the connected society on the right that we are moving into. This will not be entirely trivial this change because clearly there's a lot of money in what I call the economy based on large companies, large corporations, which we will have in the future as well, but in a collaborative way. I mean clearly this theme that I'm using for my next book that's called from ego to ego, I didn't quite come up with this but it's sort of a meme that's around the web for some time and the subtitle is why business as usual is killing us and I really believe that business as usual will kill us and it's on the best possible way to killing us, just look to the American elections for good examples on what business to usual does to people when it's about really, really obvious stuff that needs to be done that needs to be fixed that people can't agree on and of course in Europe we're not really faring much better there either so I'd be looking to the developing so-called developing countries led by Brazil and maybe India, Indonesia and later Africa to actually put this into place. I found this on Tumblr by I think this from some e help place in the UK or something. I have to find the source but this actually has a really nice illustration of what I'm talking about here going from the top down the pyramid to the circular economy. So thinking of us as being interconnected and actually passing benefits back and forth and also making sure that we keep the commons as part of our thinking so that not everything is going into private things but something also remains common. Here's a very large table of comparison. Some of the stuff I'm working on in my book is saying okay what is the difference between the ecosystem and the ecosystem and clearly it's sort of mirroring what's happening on the web whether it's good or bad you know we have now a distributed content economy peer-to-peer uploading and sharing YouTube is peer-to-peer MTV is centralized. We have owned and closed systems in the past that are now shared and open I mean just look at slide share look at Skype look at peer-to-peer file sharing we have hyper collaboration we have a system of where we actually crowd sourced stuff from the outside and we're seeing this trend going across the board across all industries the shift from ecosystem to ecosystem from the monolithic to the network I mean this is not just Google versus Microsoft which is now trying to become network and interoperable and make nice tablets as well so ecosystem to ecosystem that's sort of a big theme here right but the key question is can we grow more can Brazil grow more because Brazil is growing like crazy as all of you know I'm sure and quite proud of grow more but with less and prior environmental impact I think that is going to be quite hard this is a this is a technologist wishful thinking that we can actually carbon sequestrate and then pollute more so we can take it back out well the Unilever CEO Paul Pullman I think this is already a few years old he said in order to live within the natural limits of the planet we will have to decouple growth from environmental impact how do we do this could Brazil be the leader in this I think clearly I think that it leadership is going to come from from developing markets from emerging economies so called a lot of people are talking about how we can make money by by by switching to green I think that's largely true but not entirely I think sustainable business is the number one objective until 2020 that's quite clear making money in a green way in an eco way that that is going to be a main theme and it's going to be absolutely humongous challenge for hotels for airlines for car companies for technology companies you know that is a prime objective not just because it's good for for the planet and we're hopefully it possibly keep us from exploding in 2050 which isn't entirely clear actually but also because there's new business models unfolding that are interconnected I would we're seeing this everywhere and this could possibly be the the key to the Rio 20 debates in the next couple years is to completely take this upside down I don't know how exactly we can do this I mean the overlap of environmental and economic interests and social interests as you can see here you know that that's a tough spot to get to but it's inevitable I think for us that is where we're going some numbers on inequality which is rising around the world well it's arising in some countries and and lowering in others but in Brazil for example there has been a good movement there towards more of an equal spread but still is a huge amount of challenge especially of course in in America right as we can see here you know being more equal more unequal the the orange ones are unequal to the United States Brazil actually not doing so bad but US China and Germany it's surprisingly and the and the Scandinavian countries so I mean that is an interesting angle here I think inequality is absolutely a death wish as far as the economy of the future is concerned there has to be fixed there's a particular approach to this in Bhutan where they have replaced GDP with GNH or GNP gross national product with gross national happiness they have even a commissioner of gross national happiness which I think is more important than GNP if you look at this course is not just about economic growth but you will face negative consequences so you have to look at this in a holistic way I think this Bhutan kind of idea could be very well carried over into Brazil and other emerging countries I think we're looking at possibly and probably the rebooting of capitalism as we know it I mean clearly that is going to be a huge challenge and look at this what's happening Brazil with deforestation Brazil Indonesia are leading deforestation around the world that is lost and that needs to change I think it's urgently required and this is a huge business opportunity responsible capitalism and what I think not Jeremy Rifkin but Paul Hawkins calls the natural capitalism that is a shift you know from the turbo capitalism that we've learned from from the US economy I think clearly where it's the mission is now to go from this place down here to where everything was about industrial things about production and about information and data lately moving up to thinking of us as a network as a biosphere not just in the green sense but also in the sense of business models you're not being interdependent having those business models develop and this will happen clearly in all of these nice abbreviations the bricks the next 11 the myths the civets the civets are columbia Indonesia Vietnam Egypt turkey and south of Africa and clearly that's where it's going to happen so you you're quite in a well in a good place there Africa being the window after I think Brazil probably the next three to four years Africa will become a huge window for this opportunity and this is also very very interesting in my view is to look what happens there but it's all about interconnected business models and interconnected means also replenishing it you know a circular economy as you may have says in his book the 21st century capitalist manifesto he's talking about value cycles or circles not value chains and I think this is really what we're looking at going from this idea from independence you know which was you know universal music universal studios and Goldman Sachs and big banks and big companies big government to interdependence which Tiffany Schlein talks about in a new movie connect the movie which I highly recommend that you watch going from ego to ego here is absolutely key for us in order to survive on the future and actually create a biosphere of business and ideas and of course of culture this is a very large cultural ramification here as you can see I think every every single politician is going to have to make the biosphere their central message and not just in terms of technology or in terms of energy but in terms of media and art society business and politics this is becoming the main thing how do we do that and how do we shift in this direction by 2020 it's going to be entirely clear can't be growth but unprecedented collaboration co-creation innovation and interdependence that's basically where we're heading in the next decade and converges of course will have those massive opportunities you know between search and social television the internet and clearly I mean that's going to be mind-boggling the next five to eight years as long as we keep in mind that we still want to remain human with all the technology that's going to start happening with what Ray Kurzweil calls a singularity which is a lot of that is actually quite scary but probably inevitable the business model that we're seeing these days you know the cloud in the crowd that that is going to be huge by 2020 connecting media education money mobile money not having cash anymore very likely is going to happen I mean clearly between the crowd the cloud and the crowd there's going to be lots of really interesting business models it's about media it's moving from from access to ownership from ownership to access they wish that to be the other way around but you know music starting with music now where we're just accessing it in the cloud using Spotify RDO and Napster or whatever if Napster stood around I think that's Rhapsody now but going from from ownership to access you know that is a quite a transition that will be concluded in the next five years as well for music for radio for television for movies as we can see with Netflix you know following sort of the pay will model not the paywall model of the New York Times that clearly won't work in some cases it may work but I I don't think it's really a it's not a business model it's an aberration paywall I think pay will is what we're looking for in other words what will people pay for voluntarily or by packaging what Kevin Kelly calls a new generative that's where it's going we're going to see a convergence of telecom and media together in a new ecosystem which is also becoming a really really important ecosystem of social networks telecom content advertising and device makers and telecoms are going to get engaged with all that stuff all that just go away things are moving to the cloud I mean clearly we're seeing that everywhere with mobile devices and tablets in eight years that will be completely foregone conclusion main issue there is you know potential loss of privacy with bleeding data there's going to be huge business in maintaining privacy and becoming a privacy bank and still being part of the grid you know like the like minority report or the matrix it's going to be quite hard I think for us to decide if we're going to be on the grid or not because being off the grid will be for most people just not possible so now we have to figure out a way that we can use all that stuff and still remain private in some way or the other because everything indeed is moving to the cloud this is a huge transition will also take the next 10 years lots and lots of business models coming out of that in general I think quite positive for most people disembodiment of almost all media starting with books music films television and sooner or later I'll go into education which is a trillion dollar opportunity right there I would definitely recommend in Brazil you know you take that step towards disembodying education that seems like a very very likely thing as people in Thailand have already looked at you know they are already giving tablets to students of course they have a bunch of other problems there which is why it's not really working as it should I mean we're seeing all this virtual data and augmented reality in 3D and I mean clearly that you know our mobile devices are becoming extensions of our brain and it's clearly going to be our brain connected to devices through all kinds of ways and I hope not through actual interfaces on my iris or in my head like an implant and lots of people talking about this but clearly external brains that's what those devices are and this will be again a standard in 2020 but the business models I think human machine convergence very scary stuff watch this movie Frank and Robot I haven't seen it yet but I had good things about it and of course Transcendent Man by Ray Colt as well give you something to think about there in eight years a lot of that stuff will become reality or has or is already becoming reality now but I don't want to be that guy here on the left I think there's lots of things to consider in this convergence you know we're going to be like this I kind of doubt this is a future you want to see but we have to brace for those new interfaces internet on our iris clearly that's already reality for a fighter pilot speaking to your television motion control voice control face recognition automatic language translation lots and lots of really great things here the technology will bring to us especially as content creators a slight drawback as you can see you know we might get addicted to this because and you know of course we are addicted in many ways to our external brains because it's so good and it won't have as many side effects as this kind of habit well social media you know in Brazil I think 90% of people are in social media so technology addiction is a growing concern something that I think we need to also be able to have time to detox and you know offline is a new luxury and that will emerge in Brazil in the next few years as well data is a new all talk about this a lot but it's not going to be a major subject here but clearly in the economy of things we're moving away from oil being the central wheel and the pumping and the mining and the refurbishing and the driving with data is going to be much bigger economy as you can see with the likes of Google, Facebook, Twitter Tencent, QQ, Orchard, whatever you have data is the new all and we're going to be able to get to it in these kind of interfaces just diving in pulling out stuff and becoming familiar with what goes on and making sense out of it in a much much different way by 2020 this becomes normal to dive into data like we've seen in the movie here and of course what is happening now with augmented reality is only a precursor all over these things largely I think a lot of these things are subject to cultural evaluation and to habit changes you know are we actually going to do this or are we just toying with this you know clearly it's all about trust whether we trust our suppliers our devices ours the strangers that we know on our network I mean trust is becoming the key issue in most of these things and we're certainly heading into a trust economy in 2020 you won't do business with anyone that you don't completely trust because they'll get your data not just the money and your attention and you're going to go in this direction money is completely changing the future of money is a great charter fund from emergence.cc about what's happening with money crowdfunding, microfinance money is completely changing in the next five years you know the storage of value how we pay whether we pay with attention we pay with reputation there's new currencies social capital this is going to be humongous great book you have to read collaborative consumption from Rachel Bozeman and a bunch of great Ted videos from her she's talking about reputation becoming a currency that is clearly the case and this will be a much more powerful than our credit card in 10 years and that is a trend that we're clearly going to see there cars transportation it's going to totally change the old being ecosystem of you know keep saying that word but that's basically what we're I mean you know it's really derivative but that's where we're going we're going to see an ecosystem of electric cars of shared cars of not using cars and using flying tubes maybe but you know it's not going to be about cars it's going to be about transportation and all of the car companies are heading in this direction I think this is going to be a very interesting future that in terms of keeping human you know that is going to teach us quite a few lessons there climate change remains the number one issue in America we have climate science which is appalling election is going to be very soon maybe you'll see this before the election in America I hope that Obama wins of course even though he's also silent on the climate change maybe that will change after he can take the duct tape out of his mouth global warming is the biggest market failure in history of capitalism and this clearly proves to us that capitalism in this way as we've had it does not solve these problems we need to think of another way as to what the circular economy calls a circular way of doing this inspired by nature and needed to safeguard our planet if you're looking at the technical circle the biological circle this is clearly where we're heading and there's a bunch of really interesting business models there and I think a lot of that stuff could be invented or has already been invented in Brazil there's lots of green energy stuff in Brazil maybe Brazil can take the leadership from Germany here in this regard the next few years read this book the third industrial revolution by Jeremy Rifkin I think the energy of revolution will follow the communication revolution and that is clearly I'm in line with Jeremy on this or vice versa but he's talking about the internet being a model for what he calls the intergrit right a future in which millions of people can collect, produce and store and also share energy in their homes and put it back into the grid this I believe is a solution where the hydrogen will be that universal storage medium I'm not sure but once again I think that third industrial revolution is Jeremy is working on this a lot here in Europe that really needs to come to Brazil so invite him I'll come over and talk about it as well we're heading in this direction that the business model is going to be a collaborative model with a new energy ecosystem a new media ecosystem a new money ecosystem and a new education ecosystem built around the collaborative effort keeping a common goal in the middle of the common goal is to survive and prosper in the future not to blow us up by keeping on old ego systems the future of business are going to be the decline of these empires pretty much across the board with the exception of maybe Apple for five years or something as you can see I'm an Apple fan boy here but it's going to be a decline of empires and a rise of networks and this is really the thing I hate about Apple is that it's really an empire but we'll see the rise of networks I think that clearly isn't just going to be Facebook but not just social networks but clearly a connected society a networked society we're in the midst of this huge shift you know going from this idea of having a central place a tower monopolies and top down to the interconnected economy and that is a shift that's already well in place now in three years that will be completely next to each other completely converged society you know when we have five billion people connected to the internet and of course we'll want both we'll want solitude and being by ourselves and we'll want to be connected to the cloud and we'll have to learn how to be responsible with this and actually make it work and not kill ourselves in the process because you know technology's humanization will be crucial to me that is absolutely number one because you know that there's already way enough things like cloud and peer index that want to turn us into algorithms which we're just plainly not so here's a summary of a few things you know it's about four sides it's about data social, local, mobile cloud, crowdsourcing open systems all that stuff will be next five years basically being a given and I do hope that the Oktoberfest will still be here in 2020 because it's a great place to go to either live in Munich but it's a fun event just kidding anyway thanks for your time thanks for dropping by you can download my app just google for a futurist app and you'll find it or visit me at themediafuturist.com for my media stuff scan the code here for my app if you like visit me on slide share and do whatever else you like and thanks very much for listening bye