 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. I hope everybody is having a great start to their weekend. Finally, some beautiful weather here in the Northeast. It's going to be north of 70 degrees. So hopefully, just trying to relax, trying to relax, get some fresh air, get some exercise, get my tummy full, and kind of decompress and get focused for the next trading week. One thing I will tell you, I'm sick and tired of wearing a hat. I desperately like everybody else needs a major haircut. But again, at the end of the day, let that be our worst problems because we are alive. So let's talk about the market. March 16, 2020 will forever live in infamy. March 16 of 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial has dropped 3,000 points. That was the absolute worst drop in the stock market for the last 30 years. We had everything on the table. Global pandemic, people dying, people are afraid, people are nervous, everything, everything. Businesses are closing, everybody is stuck in the home, just sheer panic. And if you told me a month later, we were going to have, and this is how insane the world is right now. If you told me a month later, we were going to have 25 million people filing unemployment. Most businesses are still closed. People are going nuts, people are going stir crazy. You have the United States government, I believe, releasing a video of a UFO, which got absolutely no play. Think about it, if this was a year ago, people going nuts, which got absolutely no play. Was it real? Was it fake? Again, at this point in our lives, it doesn't make a big difference. You got beef shortages, that's what she said. You have a month that contract, an individual contract on the WTI near-term contract went negative. Went absolutely negative. You have people going completely crazy because the market doesn't make sense. You throw that out all together, and you have a CEO putting a ribbon on top, Elon Musk, yesterday talking about, hey, by the way, my stock price is a little overinflated. You take all that craziness, put it in a blender, press button, let it all mix in, and at the end of the day, when everything all said and done, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had its biggest move in the last 33 years in the month of April. This isn't your grandfather's stock market, guys. This isn't even a stock market for the last couple of years. We are completely in uncharted territory, and if you've been watching this broadcast, just even the last three, four weeks, I just stopped thinking. Don't want to think anymore. Don't care anymore. We know everything is crazy. We know nothing makes sense. When you try to analyze what is going on on face value, the smartest human being on the planet, the most talented quant person on the planet, they will never come down to a reason why things are happening because, again, we've never seen something before. And if you told me that just on March 16th that we were going to be where we are, if you look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average where we were on March 6th or March 23rd, that was the low, 182, to where we were a couple of days ago at 247, it doesn't even make sense. But, again, it doesn't have to make sense anymore. And the most amazing part is as I'm getting older and older in this business, and I'm going again, I'm going on my 21st year, I've lost really all belief that markets on the surface have to do anything. They don't have to do anything. Tomorrow, like next week, can the market go down 2,000 points? Absolutely. Can the market rally 2,000 points? Absolutely, because that's what we are right now. And unfortunately, most people are sitting on the sidelines, and they're getting more frustrated because they can't understand what's going on than taking the alternative route, having a clear head, coming in every single day fresh, and just trading what's in front of them. And I think that's a very, very basic element of survival. I think the idea that traders paint themselves in a corner every single day, have such a strong stubborn opinion of what should be happening right in front of them. They lose track of number one, the big picture. They lose track of what the market is trying to scream at them. And what they continuously still do is try to will their way into the directional bias that they have such a strong opinion. And unfortunately, when you're a brand new trader, you don't have that luxury. You don't. You don't have the luxury of having that super aggressive conviction. Because again, let's look at the reality. Most new traders, again, are there for three years. You're basically just exposed unless you started literally in the last two, three months. You're literally exposed to one of the most aggressive linear bull market runs that we had in my career. Ever since even the 2009 generational bottom, that was the end of the mortgage mess, at least the end of the mortgage mess stock market. So unfortunately, the only thing you know is up. Buy it at any price. The fact that the market goes up every single day. You don't have the need to have the best entry in the world. You could at that point have the flexibility and the ability and the luxury to be in at a wrong price because the market is so strong. The market's still going to make you hold still going to validate. So unfortunately, a lot of new traders believe that this was the right approach, that this is the type of market that's going to last forever. And just like going back to the internet craze, which me and my friends during that time said, wow, this is the best thing ever. I can't wait to see what the rest of my life turns out. Internet craze only lasted for a year and a half. So the idea that if you start in the last two, three years, that everything was going to be peachy and creamy the day of the beach and the market will always make you whole. You don't need to be perfect. You could still chase. You could still get aggressive. FOMO, it's for somebody else. When people started realizing two months from now that again, it doesn't work that way. It's just like the person who is naive in 2005, 2006, and raise your hand if you built your first home at the top of the market in 2007. Because home prices are still always going to go up. So I think this is a type of tape that really woke up, especially a lot of the newer traders. And this is the type of tape. And I tweeted this out this morning. I think right now, you really have to make a choice if you do want to trade. It doesn't need to be full-time. Not everybody needs to trade full-time. I think the greatest gift you can give to yourself, if you do have an income coming in, it makes things a lot more clear mentally than if you're a professional trader and you're sitting there with no income. Everything has to be perfect. You can't afford to sit on the sidelines. You're mentally stressed. So income is a very, very important part. But even if you're not and don't have any intention of being a full-time professional trader, still this is the time that you have time on your side. There are no distractions. You don't have places to go. Your kids don't need to be chauffeur to sporting events. You don't need to take your kids to birthday parties. You don't need to go out drinking. You don't need to go out to restaurants. You have time on your side. Most of us who have been practicing social distancing, for me, it's north of three months, three and a half months now. If you're doing it responsibly, you still have plenty of time to do outdoor activities, play with your family, enjoy family time. But you literally have six, seven, eight hours of a lot of downtime. Again, you really have to look yourself in the mirror right now and turn around and say, do I really want to do this? Whatever capacity, that's a whole different story. Part-time, full-time, whatever your desire is, there are no excuses anymore that I don't have the time. I'm getting pulled from different places. I'm getting too many distractions. You have a lot of time on your hands. This is the time no matter what type of trader you are. Again, I trade pivots. You might be trading mid-caps. You might be trading forex or future. Whatever your desired choice of trading is. This is the time that you have to put everything aside. You have all the time in the world. Sit down and really make it work. Again, if you can't dedicate this time, I can guarantee you when the world eventually opens up again. Again, that could be three weeks from now, three years from now or 30 years from now. We don't know. We don't know. We'd like to think, we'd like to be optimistic that life comes back to normal sooner than later. But we honestly don't know. I mean, look what happened to Georgia. The governor of Georgia opened up Georgia for a week. They had 1,000 cases in 24 hours, right? So we don't know. We want to. But we don't know how long we're going to be in this situation. And again, if you have any aspirations of doing this part-time, full-time, you have to sit your ass down four or five hours a day on the weekends. Look at charts. Again, like I've been saying this for years, even if you don't know what you're looking for, OK? Eventually, by looking at charts and back-testing where stocks came from, not where they're going, but where they came from, you're going to start picking up a lot of consistent patterns, a lot of consistent moves. And once you start looking at more and more charts, eventually it's going to start creeping up in your subconscious. And you will have that light bulb moment. Again, if you trade forex, if you trade futures, it's a little bit of a different animal than trading individual equities. Because again, especially with futures, you have a 24-hour market. But again, there has to be some sort of arbitrage that you can take advantage of. There has to be some sort of edge that you can sharpen. So again, do yourself a favor. This is the absolute time. You're not going to get another time like this in your life to have this much freedom to take reins of what you want to do. Again, get on that track, get your butt in the seat, and finally start taking unnecessary steps to longevity. So April was absolutely nuts. Yesterday was one of the weirdest days I could remember. I was so tired, just to give you an idea, very solid week of trading. Again, if you've been watching this broadcast for a while, you kind of know what we've been doing. But I was so tired come Thursday night. I woke up Friday and I go, I don't even want to trade. I really don't. I'm so tired. For all you guys who are in the live webinar, when I was doing morning strategy, I was just like, I'm just not into it. My brain is dead. I could hardly speak. Let's see what we have. And the market kind of opened lower. You had Amazon down. You had Apple down. Everything was down. But they weren't down enough. That was the most important part. They weren't down enough at least at the open. And everything was kind of sitting in the middle of the range. And if you look at the Twitter feed here, this is the private Twitter feed, I go, everything's stuck in the middle of the ranges. We're going to be a little bit more extra patient today. It's a solid month. It's the first day of the month. I'm exhausted. Again, you don't need to trade every single day. I'm going to be 46. I don't have the same energy that I had at the age of 24, 25 when I first started trading. So I'm not going to have the same, let's go. Getting too old for this stuff. But like I said, let's see what happens. And I think the day started out exactly how I thought everything was in the middle of the ranges. They really needed to be confirmed. But the most amazing part about trading is, and this is why I always say, it's the greatest reality show that's not on television. You just don't know where the craziness will start. And although I didn't participate in the craziest, craziest thing, I just kind of, we'll talk about that in a second. You could really appreciate, no matter what level of experience you are as a trader, aspiring trader, professional trader, the greatest gift you can give yourself is the ability to have control. FOMO out the window. FOMO out the window. You accept missing trades. You accept not taking trades. You accept taking trades that are bad. You're accepting everything the market has to get you. And the only way you're ever going to run that whole gamut is through time. So for all the traders who are trying to rush their development, it's going to come in time. For all the traders who can't hold on to a winner, it's going to come in time. For all those traders that are still envious and going crazy about what they see somewhere else, that too shall pass. Everything will get better in time. You won't ever rush your development. But when you look at Friday's session, and maybe I picked the wrong day to really take off, I took a couple of pivots. Zoom, I took to the upside, made some money. Roku to the downside, took, made some money. But I didn't participate in Amazon, and I didn't participate in Tesla. And I was okay with that because I was so bent out of shape. Again, it takes so much mental equity. A lot of people, especially a lot of new traders, realize when you're trading for a long period of time and you're waiting for a very specific move, very, very specific setup, once you get into that setup, you are all in on mental equity. It doesn't make a difference what type of size you're trading, what your account size is. You're all in mental equity. So when you go through a whole week and really solidly, no complaints, when you get to that point that mentally you are on tilt, you have to make a choice. You're either going to trade for the point of trading, for the sake of trading, or you are going to put yourself in a situation that says, you know what, there is no mental trade. There is no trade right now that I want. And again, 2020 vision is much, much easier than not. But I'm okay with what happens next. And when you look at the day, it got very, very aggressive. And thinking about it this morning, I said to myself, maybe you should have gunded it out a little, maybe you should have toughened up a little more, but again, you got a limited decision. So let's talk about the day. Shop, I still like shop. I'm very, very surprised it didn't break down aggressively. Shop levels of note. I was watching, obviously Amazon was down like 150 points. We'll talk about the Amazon pivot in a second, which again, I personally did not take because again, I was shot. So I'm watching Amazon. First thing I watch, Zoom 131, if it builds below, can see 29 is that obviously never got there. I actually took a pivot to the upside, which is so ironic I took Zoom and not Amazon. But again, it's a whole different story. So shop levels of note, 615, 603, both big areas need to build. And obviously, again, I was playing the theory of, if Amazon gets pulled down like 200, right, shop is gonna get. So I figured there's be much more value on shop than it was on Amazon. So here's the levels. We talked about 615 and then 603. And shop started going down pretty aggressively and all the way down to 595. So if you did take the trade, good job. Again, I was completely removed mentally already almost at this point of the day. If you took it, I mean, good trade. You had a $20 candle here. I'm very, very surprised that it didn't collapse more, especially when Amazon reached its first measure potential in charts. We'll talk about that in a second. But I still like it. I know the report this week. If the sellers can remount this 595 ahead of earnings, you could get a test here back down to this channel here in the 550s. Again, very, very possible. So that was that MRNA. Nice little spike on MRNA for those of you guys who took it. 4960 needs to build. Here is MRNA. We were watching the order flow come in on MRNA. Came in for the May 55. So 4960 was the pivot right here. Excuse me, right over here. 4960 was the pivot right over here. And listen, nice move. Almost a buck on a $50 stock. Again, it's a difference between a buck on a $50 stock, $30 stock versus a Tesla and Netflix is a completely different game. Here was the big one. Well, for the exception of Tesla. But here was the big one. 2309. If you guys remember on Thursday night when Amazon came out with earnings, I by accident tweeted out in my regular feed instead of the private feed, 2310 becomes the line in the sand for Amazon and 290, obviously, from Apple. And then I realized I put it into my regular feed, whatever. So we kind of knew the line in the sand going in. 2309, if it builds below, can flush. And again, all these trades, again, if all you guys are trading on the PO60 theory, you know every trade is a second entry. So here was Amazon. So basically what that means is let it go through that number, right? Let it go through that 2309 number. Let it establish a new low. Let it rally back up. And once it confirms that low, hence the second entry, the stock should fall apart. And this thing got buried. I mean, absolutely buried. Again, sellers regret. I didn't take the trade. Again, it was exhausted, really, really exhausted. Again, okay, I can live with it. Not really, but I can live with it. So 2309, second entry went down all the way down to 2258. I said there's a shot it gets down to the 2250s. It was the rising support. But again, at the end of the day, my mental chips are much more important than any individual trade. Again, here's the most ironic part. I actually took Zoom, right? Zoom rejected 140 needs to reclaim. Zoom was a nice little trade, nothing crazy, but here's the 140. Here's the 140 we talked about. Here's the 140 we talked about right over here, right? Here's the 140. You got to reject it twice. It remounted and went all the way up to 14163. You know, I took some cash flow on the trade. Nothing crazy. 482 on Tesla never, obviously never got there. We'll talk about Tesla in a second. Netflix continues to be a really good trader. It really does. 424.50, 425 needs to build. And again, I passed on Netflix, right? Again, you could tell mentally where I was. I was completely burnt out. And it's so ironic. The stocks that I actually trade every single day, I actually didn't trade them. So I took the stocks that I usually don't trade every day, except the exception of Roka. Roka was I trade all the time. But here is Netflix. We talked about this area right here, this whole area right here, which was 224, right? 424.50, 425. Netflix went to 428. Again, Netflix continues to be an absolute great trader. Take on the way. Facebook never had a second entry. Took out 206.90, 207. Went to like 207.20s, never had a second entry. Roku, I actually caught pretty well. Again, those are the only two trades of the day. I took Zoom for some cash flow. Roku was nice. Roku, 116.65, if it builds below can flush. Again, it went down initially to $16.16, then rallied back up. So that 16 level was the second entry. That's where I got short. And here was Roku, right? Here was Roku and the reason why 16.5 was such a big area, right? That's where it stopped this whole area here. That was the low from April 29th. And once it started building, I thought it had a shot to get the 1360s, 14. My lowest cover was 14. So I was, you know, I was fine with that. Okay. And then I watched it go to 11. Okay. It happens. And at that point I said, okay, I'm really done. Okay. I'm really done. I don't care what happens for the rest of the day. I'm really done. I'm on fumes. I'm on empty. And this is where I wish I would have just held on for one more trade. And that one little trade was Roku, new lows, blah, blah, blah. Amazon got killed, blah, blah, blah. Again, congratulations. You guys took those trades. Fantastic. Roku was good. So here is where, here is where I wish I could, I could kind of turn back the clock. And I know a lot of you guys did incredibly well with the trade. I got tons of emails after the close. I got, you know, in the webinar or all that stuff. So we're sitting there and I'm watching, and I'm watching like just, just watching Tesla. And all of a sudden I see this really weird candle goes from 758 to 753 in seconds. Usually you don't see an aggressive move unless there's a really, really aggressive pivot that I've been watching or some sort of news comes out. And I'm sitting there and I go, yeah, is there any news on coming out on Tesla? Nobody says a word. Nobody knows, right? And then all of a sudden I hear my squawk box. And again, I didn't see it on Twitter. All of a sudden I hear my squawk box turning around and saying, well, Elon Musk thinks the company's overvalued. And this is where you turn around and say, man, is there anything crazier that can happen in 2020? Aliens, right? Aliens. Oil contracts going negative. Corona. Is there anything crazier, right? Anything crazier. The only thing crazy that my mother-in-law explodes in 30,000 different pieces and put ourselves back together and become stronger than ever. That would be the only crazy thing that's left. So you're sitting here and you basically had Elon Musk. And again, I love Tesla long, short. It doesn't make a difference to me. But please give me what he was on, man. And I had to say to myself, this guy, did he just really say his company, the price of the stock, is overvalued? And I go, no, there's no way. It had to be had, right? Everybody's first thing to me was this guy is either high as hell, right? I don't know what he was on. High as hell, drunk as hell, having a mid-life crisis, having a revolver into his mouth. Something is wrong. And you start looking at his Twitter feed. I'm selling all my worldly possessions. It did sound like he was on death's door. So I don't know what was up with this dude, but everybody thought it was hacked, right? He was hacked until they asked him. I forgot what regulatory body asked him. They go, hey, was this you? And he's like, yeah, it was me. So 741, and again, I just, I regret it now, yes. I admit, I regret it now. But 741, if it builds below, can flush. I thought the stock would get down to 706. That was the bottom of the range here. Again, and you kind of, you kind of say to yourself, and again, I know a lot of you guys did very, very well in the trade. I know you say to yourself, you say, how can, you know, how can a CEO do this? And again, it's amazing. I know a lot of people hate Elon. A lot of people love Elon. But they're just thinking out loud. I mean, how do you not have a class action lawsuit from your investors? Like, how do you, how do you in your right frame of mind make a statement like that? Again, the shock factor, the shock factor is obviously there. But nevertheless, here is a 741 pivot on Tesla, right? Here is a 741 pivot on Tesla is right here. Okay, 741, I thought it could get down to 706. And it just went through 706, went all the way down to 683. Again, I know a lot of you guys did incredibly well in the trade. Best stock ever. I mean, yeah, I mean, it's absolutely incredible, right? Right to support. Yeah, 706 target now. And again, I'm very, very jealous of all you guys. This is definitely, this is definitely a big miss for me. But again, at the end of the day, it's much more important, right? Much more important for me to have mental sanity, my mental health going into the next trading day, next trading week. And that's exactly what we are. So, and by the way, there was another, there was another spike after the pivot of 2309 on Amazon went down to the 2250s. The last pivot of the day was 2300 needs to build for a spike. And here is where I got the 2300 form, right? Here is, you see this candle into supply, right? This candle into supply was 2299. So it needed the next candle to confirm it. So 2300, nice little $13, $14 candle. I know some of you guys took the trade as well. Overall, you know, really good week, really good week. Obviously, I picked the wrong day to get mentally fried because, you know, I only took a couple of trades on Friday. But again, Jomo, the joy of missing out. So going into this week, technically, you know, let's take a look. I mean, it's really hard to say. Look, you have, you have still a really ridiculous uptrend here in the cues. Okay. And most indexes, you have a lot of support here. I don't think you start to panic as a bold bias trader until they start cracking below the 208 level. Again, we've seen this movie now for the last weeks over under 213. I mean, literally over under 213 for the last two, you know, they just can't, they just can't stake their claim. Bulls and Bears just can't stake their claim on this level. Now, again, we close low there. I think some concern starts to pop up if we start closing below 208. Okay. I think that's a very, very important level. I think to the upside, I think bulls really need to reclaim back the five day moving average, which is a two 15 and a half. I think ultimately the environment is really good. Okay. I don't think you need to have a lot of exposure overnight. I think because of the average two ranges, they're so wide. They're so large, they're so exaggerated. I think you have the ability to kind of pick and choose your spots. So the idea that you need overnight exposure with so much uncertainty. I got luck to each his own. Everybody's an adult, but for me personally, I like coming in flat, identifying the ranges, waiting for them and kind of waiting for that confirmed. So guys, have a great remainder of your weekend. Please put in the work. You got to put in the work. If you're trading pivots, keep on watching the workshops, the 2.0, the 3.0. It's all repetition. The more you do it, the slower the game becomes. And again, time cures all. Guys, God bless, stay healthy, stay safe, and I'll see you all on Monday. Take care guys. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities We're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.